Package: recruitlag 0.1.0

recruitlag: Can Episodic Recruitment be a Delayed Consequence of Continuous Reproduction?

Tests whether an episodic recruitment record can be the delayed consequence of a reproductive record, under any distributed lag. A delay is a convolution, and a convolution is a weighted average, so the concentration in time of expected recruitment can never exceed that of reproduction: reproduction's own concentration is a ceiling. The package computes that ceiling by searching families of lag weights (pure delays, windows, geometric decay and Dirichlet draws), calibrates the pooled comparison against negative-binomial counts to show what it can and cannot refute, and runs the host-level (replicate-unit) test in which the null is the lag hypothesis exactly as it is asserted: expected recruitment on each unit is that unit's own lagged reproduction, scaled to its own total. Uncertainty on the exceedance comes by three routes, a cluster bootstrap over units, a Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin 1981 <doi:10.1214/aos/1176345338>) and a negative-binomial model of the counts fitted with 'Stan' through 'cmdstanr'; recruit_triage() asks whether a first sighting is a recruit or a plant returning from dormancy. Plotting functions draw the ceiling strip, the lag profiles against the observed counts, the calibration and a forest plot of the intervals. The census data on the epiphytic orchid Lepanthes eltoroensis analysed in the companion paper are included.

Authors:Raymond L. Tremblay [aut, cre, cph]