Package 'mlr3forecast'

Title: Extending 'mlr3' to Time Series Forecasting
Description: Extends the 'mlr3' package and ecosystem to time series forecasting. Provides forecasting tasks, learners, resampling strategies, performance measures, and 'mlr3pipelines' operators for time-series feature engineering. Machine learning regression learners can be turned into forecasters through recursive and direct multi-step strategies.
Authors: Maximilian Mücke [aut, cre] (ORCID: <https://orcid.org/0009-0000-9432-9795>), Marc Becker [aut] (ORCID: <https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8115-0400>), Bernd Bischl [aut] (ORCID: <https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6002-6980>)
Maintainer: Maximilian Mücke <[email protected]>
License: LGPL-3
Version: 0.1.0
Built: 2026-07-22 10:53:14 UTC
Source: https://github.com/cran/mlr3forecast

Help Index

mlr3forecast: Extending 'mlr3' to Time Series Forecasting

Description

Extends the 'mlr3' package and ecosystem to time series forecasting. Provides forecasting tasks, learners, resampling strategies, performance measures, and 'mlr3pipelines' operators for time-series feature engineering. Machine learning regression learners can be turned into forecasters through recursive and direct multi-step strategies.

Author(s)

Maintainer: Maximilian Mücke [email protected] (ORCID)

Authors:

See Also

Useful links:

Convert to a Forecast Task

Description

Convert object to a TaskFcst. This is a S3 generic. mlr3forecast ships with methods for the following objects:

  1. TaskFcst: ensure the identity

  2. data.frame() and mlr3::DataBackend: provides an alternative to the constructor of TaskFcst.

  3. ts: from base R time series objects (univariate and multivariate).

  4. zoo and xts: from zoo/xts time series objects.

  5. timeSeries: from Rmetrics timeSeries objects.

  6. tsf: from tsf format data.

  7. tbl_ts: from tsibble objects.

Usage

as_task_fcst(x, ...)

as_tasks_fcst(x, ...)

## Default S3 method:
as_tasks_fcst(x, ...)

## S3 method for class 'list'
as_tasks_fcst(x, ...)

## S3 method for class 'TaskFcst'
as_task_fcst(x, clone = FALSE, ...)

## S3 method for class 'DataBackend'
as_task_fcst(
  x,
  target,
  order,
  key = character(),
  freq = NULL,
  id = deparse1(substitute(x)),
  label = NA_character_,
  ...
)

## S3 method for class 'data.frame'
as_task_fcst(
  x,
  target,
  order,
  key = character(),
  freq = NULL,
  id = deparse1(substitute(x)),
  label = NA_character_,
  ...
)

## S3 method for class 'tsf'
as_task_fcst(x, id = deparse1(substitute(x)), label = NA_character_, ...)

## S3 method for class 'ts'
as_task_fcst(
  x,
  freq = NULL,
  id = deparse1(substitute(x)),
  label = NA_character_,
  ...
)

## S3 method for class 'zoo'
as_task_fcst(
  x,
  freq = NULL,
  id = deparse1(substitute(x)),
  label = NA_character_,
  ...
)

## S3 method for class 'timeSeries'
as_task_fcst(
  x,
  freq = NULL,
  id = deparse1(substitute(x)),
  label = NA_character_,
  ...
)

## S3 method for class 'tbl_ts'
as_task_fcst(
  x,
  target,
  freq = NULL,
  id = deparse1(substitute(x)),
  label = NA_character_,
  ...
)

Arguments

x

(any)
Object to convert.
...

(any)
Additional arguments.
clone

(logical(1))
If TRUE, ensures that the returned object is not the same as the input x.
target

(character(1))
Name of the target column.
order

(character(1))
Name of the order column.
key

(character())
Name of the key column.
freq

(character(1) | numeric(1) | NULL)
Frequency of the time series. Either a positive number or a seq()-compatible string, e.g.: "1 month", "day", "3 months", "1 hour", "week".
id

(character(1))
Id for the new task. Defaults to the (deparsed and substituted) name of the data argument.
label

(character(1))
Label for the new instance.

Value

TaskFcst.

Examples

library(data.table)
airpassengers = tsbox::ts_dt(AirPassengers)
setnames(airpassengers, c("month", "passengers"))
as_task_fcst(airpassengers, target = "passengers", order = "month", freq = "month")

Plot for Forecast Predictions

Description

Generates a forecast plot for PredictionFcst. The point forecast is drawn over the time index. When a task is supplied, the historical series is overlaid and the forecast region is drawn in a distinct colour, connected to the last historical observation for visual continuity.

For quantile forecasts, symmetric quantile pairs (e.g. the 10% and 90% quantiles) are drawn as shaded central prediction interval ribbons over the forecast region, shaded darker for narrower intervals and labelled by their level (e.g. 80, 95) in a legend. Quantiles without a symmetric partner are not drawn.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'PredictionFcst'
autoplot(
  object,
  task = NULL,
  theme = ggplot2::theme_minimal(),
  facets = FALSE,
  ...
)

Arguments

object

(PredictionFcst).
task

(TaskFcst | NULL)
Optional task providing the historical series to overlay. When NULL, only the forecast region is drawn.
theme

(ggplot2::theme())
The ggplot2::theme_minimal() is applied by default to all plots.
facets

(logical(1))
For keyed tasks, draw one panel per series instead of one coloured line per series. Default FALSE.
...

(any)
Additional argument, passed down to the underlying geom or plot functions.

Value

ggplot2::ggplot() object.

Examples

task = tsk("airpassengers")
learner = lrn("fcst.auto_arima")$train(task)
p = forecast(learner, task, h = 12)
ggplot2::autoplot(p, task = task)

Plot for Forecast Tasks

Description

Generates plots for TaskFcst.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'TaskFcst'
autoplot(object, theme = ggplot2::theme_minimal(), facets = FALSE, ...)

Arguments

object

(TaskFcst).
theme

(ggplot2::theme())
The ggplot2::theme_minimal() is applied by default to all plots.
facets

(logical(1))
For keyed tasks, draw one panel per series instead of one coloured line per series. Default FALSE.
...

(any)
Additional argument, passed down to the underlying geom or plot functions.

Value

ggplot2::ggplot() object.

Examples

task = tsk("airpassengers")
ggplot2::autoplot(task)

Create a Direct Forecast Learner

Description

Function to create a DirectForecaster object. This is the recommended way to construct a direct forecaster. It is a thin wrapper around DirectForecaster$new().

A direct forecaster trains a separate regression model per forecast horizon, so predictions never feed back into one another (no error accumulation). For the recursive strategy (a single iterated model) see recursive_forecaster().

Usage

direct_forecaster(
  learner,
  lags,
  horizons,
  id = NULL,
  param_vals = list(),
  predict_type = NULL
)

Arguments

learner

(mlr3::Learner | mlr3pipelines::Graph | mlr3pipelines::PipeOp)
A regression learner or a graph/PipeOp (without PipeOpFcstLags).
lags

(integer())
The base lag values. Exposed in ⁠$param_set⁠ as lags, so it can be tuned via mlr3tuning::AutoTuner.
horizons

(integer())
Either a single integer H (expanded to 1:H) or an integer vector of specific horizons. One model is trained per horizon.
id

(character(1) | NULL)
Identifier, default NULL (auto-generated from the learner id).
param_vals

(named list())
Hyperparameter values applied to every horizon model. Per-horizon hyperparameters are not currently supported.
predict_type

(character(1) | NULL)
The predict type, default NULL.

Value

DirectForecaster.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)

task = tsk("airpassengers")
split = partition(task, ratio = 0.8)

# one model per horizon
flrn = direct_forecaster(lrn("regr.rpart"), lags = 1:3, horizons = length(split$test))
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)

Direct Multi-Step Forecast Learner

Description

Trains a separate model for each forecast horizon. For horizon h with base lags 1:p, model h uses lags h:(h+p-1), so that at prediction time only observed values are needed. Unlike RecursiveForecaster, predictions do not feed back into subsequent steps (no error accumulation).

Lag features are managed internally via lags. Do not add iterative feature PipeOps (property "fcst_iterative", e.g. PipeOpFcstLags, PipeOpFcstRolling), which are rejected at construction.

Super class

mlr3::Learner -> DirectForecaster

Active bindings

learner

(mlr3::Learner)
The base regression learner.

native_model

(named list())
The fitted models.

lags

(integer())
The base lags.

horizons

(integer())
The forecast horizons.

param_set

(paradox::ParamSet)
Set of hyperparameters.

marshaled

(logical(1))
Whether the learner's model is currently in marshaled form.

predict_type

(character(1))
Stores the currently active predict type.

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

DirectForecaster$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
DirectForecaster$new(
  learner,
  lags,
  horizons,
  id = NULL,
  param_vals = list(),
  predict_type = NULL
)
Arguments
learner

(mlr3::Learner | mlr3pipelines::Graph | mlr3pipelines::PipeOp)
A regression learner or a graph/PipeOp (without PipeOpFcstLags).

lags

(integer())
The base lag values. Exposed in ⁠$param_set⁠ as lags, so it can be tuned via mlr3tuning::AutoTuner.

horizons

(integer())
Either a single integer H (expanded to 1:H) or an integer vector of specific horizons. One model is trained per horizon. At predict time each test row is routed to the model matching its step-distance from the end of training, so with specific horizons (e.g. c(2L, 4L, 6L)) the test set may only contain rows at those exact steps ahead.

id

(character(1) | NULL)
Identifier, default NULL (auto-generated from the learner id).

param_vals

(named list())
Hyperparameter values applied to every horizon model. Per-horizon hyperparameters are not currently supported.

predict_type

(character(1) | NULL)
The predict type, default NULL.

DirectForecaster$print()

Printer.

Usage
DirectForecaster$print(...)
Arguments
...

(ignored).

DirectForecaster$marshal()

Marshal the learner's model.

Usage
DirectForecaster$marshal(...)
Arguments
...

(any)
Additional arguments passed to mlr3::marshal_model().

DirectForecaster$unmarshal()

Unmarshal the learner's model.

Usage
DirectForecaster$unmarshal(...)
Arguments
...

(any)
Additional arguments passed to mlr3::unmarshal_model().

DirectForecaster$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
DirectForecaster$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)

task = tsk("airpassengers")
split = partition(task, ratio = 0.8)

# simple: one model per horizon
flrn = DirectForecaster$new(lrn("regr.rpart"), lags = 1:3, horizons = length(split$test))
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)

# or use the direct_forecaster() helper
flrn = direct_forecaster(lrn("regr.rpart"), lags = 1:3, horizons = length(split$test))
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)

Download tsf file from Zenodo

Description

Downloads a tsf file from Zenodo using the provided record ID and dataset name.

Usage

download_zenodo_record(record_id = 4656222, dataset_name = "m3_yearly_dataset")

Arguments

record_id

(integer(1))
The Zenodo record ID.
dataset_name

(character(1))
The name of the dataset to download.

Value

(data.table::data.table()) with class "tsf". If the file contains a frequency or horizon, the "frequency" and "horizon" attributes are set, respectively.

References

Godahewa R, Bergmeir C, Webb GI, Hyndman RJ, Montero-Manso P (2021). “Monash time series forecasting archive.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.06643.

Examples

## Not run: 
library(data.table)
dt = download_zenodo_record(record_id = 4656222, dataset_name = "m3_yearly_dataset")

# optional renaming
setnames(dt, c("id", "date", "value"))

# transform into single task
task = as_task_fcst(dt)

# or split up for forecast learners that don't allow key columns
tasks = as_tasks_fcst(split(dt, by = "id", keep.by = FALSE))

# benchmark
learners = lrns(c("fcst.auto_arima", "fcst.ets", "fcst.random_walk"))
resampling = rsmp("fcst.holdout", ratio = 0.8)
design = benchmark_grid(tasks, learners, resampling)
bmr = benchmark(design)
bmr$aggregate(msr("regr.rmse"))[, .(rmse = mean(regr.rmse)), by = learner_id]

## End(Not run)

Forecast from a Trained Learner

Description

Generates h future rows from the task's skeleton (using generate_newdata()), optionally overlays user-supplied newdata onto those rows, and predicts with the trained learner via mlr3::Learner⁠$predict_newdata()⁠. Works with RecursiveForecaster, DirectForecaster, and classic ⁠LearnerFcst*⁠ forecasters.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'Learner'
forecast(object, task, h = 12L, newdata = NULL, ...)

Arguments

object

(mlr3::Learner)
A trained forecast learner.
task

(TaskFcst)
Provides the metadata needed to construct future rows: the order column (to extend the time index), key columns (for keyed tasks), freq, and the column-type schema expected by predict_newdata(). The task's data values are not used. Pass the training task or any other schema-compatible TaskFcst.
h

(integer(1))
Forecast horizon — number of future time steps per key.
newdata

(data.frame() | NULL)
Optional exogenous features for future rows. Must contain the order column (and any key columns for keyed tasks), and every row must match a row of the generated future grid. Columns other than those are overlaid onto the generated skeleton, while skeleton rows without a match keep NA.
...

(any)
Ignored.

Value

mlr3::Prediction.

Generate new data for a forecast task

Description

Generate new data for a forecast task

Usage

generate_newdata(task, n = 1L)

Arguments

task

TaskFcst
Task.
n

(integer(1))
Number of new data points to generate. Default 1L.

Details

Future dates are extrapolated by stepping the order column. For calendar freq (month/quarter/year), the origin's day-of-month is carried forward and clamped to each target month's last valid day. Other freqs use base::seq(). Month-end is not inferred, so use a first-of-month or period-style index for genuine month-end series.

Value

A data.table::data.table() with n new data points.

Forecast Learner

Description

This Learner specializes mlr3::LearnerRegr for forecast problems:

  • task_type is set to "fcst".

  • Creates mlr3::Predictions of class PredictionFcst.

  • Possible values for predict_types are:

    • "response": Predicts a numeric response for each observation in the test set.

    • "se": Predicts the standard error for each value of response for each observation in the test set.

    • "distr": Probability distribution as VectorDistribution object (requires package distr6, available via repository https://raphaels1.r-universe.dev).

    • "quantiles": Predicts quantile estimates for each observation in the test set. Set ⁠$quantiles⁠ to specify the quantiles to predict and ⁠$quantile_response⁠ to specify the response quantile. See the mlr3book on quantile regression for more details.

Predefined learners can be found in the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners.

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst

Active bindings

native_model

(any)
The fitted model.

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcst$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcst$new(
  id,
  param_set = ps(),
  predict_types = "response",
  feature_types = character(),
  properties = character(),
  packages = character(),
  label = NA_character_,
  man = NA_character_
)
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier for the new instance.

param_set

(paradox::ParamSet)
Set of hyperparameters.

predict_types

(character())
Supported predict types. Must be a subset of mlr_reflections$learner_predict_types.

feature_types

(character())
Feature types the learner operates on. Must be a subset of mlr_reflections$task_feature_types.

properties

(character())
Set of properties of the mlr3::Learner. Must be a subset of mlr_reflections$learner_properties. The following properties are currently standardized and understood by learners in mlr3:

  • "missings": The learner can handle missing values in the data.

  • "weights": The learner supports observation weights.

  • "offset": The learner can incorporate offset values to adjust predictions.

  • "importance": The learner supports extraction of importance scores, i.e. comes with an ⁠$importance()⁠ extractor function (see section on optional extractors in mlr3::Learner).

  • "selected_features": The learner supports extraction of the set of selected features, i.e. comes with a ⁠$selected_features()⁠ extractor function (see section on optional extractors in mlr3::Learner).

  • "oob_error": The learner supports extraction of estimated out of bag error, i.e. comes with a oob_error() extractor function (see section on optional extractors in mlr3::Learner).

  • "validation": The learner can use a validation task during training.

  • "internal_tuning": The learner is able to internally optimize hyperparameters (those are also tagged with "internal_tuning").

  • "marshal": To save learners with this property, you need to call ⁠$marshal()⁠ first. If a learner is in a marshaled state, you call first need to call ⁠$unmarshal()⁠ to use its model, e.g. for prediction.

  • "hotstart_forward": The learner supports to hotstart a model forward.

  • "hotstart_backward": The learner supports hotstarting a model backward.

  • "featureless": The learner does not use features.

packages

(character())
Set of required packages. A warning is signaled by the constructor if at least one of the packages is not installed, but loaded (not attached) later on-demand via requireNamespace().

label

(character(1))
Label for the new instance.

man

(character(1))
String in the format ⁠[pkg]::[topic]⁠ pointing to a manual page for this object. The referenced help package can be opened via method ⁠$help()⁠.

LearnerFcst$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcst$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Other Learner: mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# get all forecast learners from mlr_learners:
lrns = mlr_learners$mget(mlr_learners$keys("^fcst"))
names(lrns)

# get a specific learner from mlr_learners:
mlr_learners$get("fcst.ets")
lrn("fcst.auto_arima")

Create a Graph to Fit Local Per-Series Forecast Models

Description

Create a new Graph that wraps graph between po("fcst.splitkey") and po("fcst.unitekey"), fitting one local model per series of a keyed TaskFcst instead of one global model pooled across series.

All input arguments are cloned and have no references in common with the returned Graph.

Usage

pipeline_fcst_local(graph, key = "key")

Arguments

graph

(Graph)
Graph being wrapped between po("fcst.splitkey") and po("fcst.unitekey"). The graph should return NULL during training and a PredictionFcst during prediction.
key

(character(1))
Name of the rebuilt series-identity column in the united prediction's extra slot, default "key". Set it to the task's key column name to get predictions column-compatible with global forecasters such as RecursiveForecaster.

Value

Graph

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
library(data.table)
dt = CJ(
  month = seq(as.Date("2024-01-01"), by = "month", length.out = 36L),
  id = factor(c("a", "b"))
)
dt[, value := rnorm(.N, mean = fifelse(id == "a", 10, 20))]
task = as_task_fcst(dt, target = "value", order = "month", key = "id", freq = "month")
flrn = as_learner(ppl("fcst.local", lrn("fcst.ets")))$train(task)
forecast(flrn, task, 12L)

ADAM Forecast Learner

Description

Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM) Forecast Learner model. Calls smooth::adam() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.adam")
lrn("fcst.adam")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
model untyped "ZXZ" -
lags untyped - -
orders untyped list(ar = 0, i = 0, ma = 0, select = FALSE) -
constant logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
regressors character use use, select, adapt -
occurrence character none none, auto, fixed, general, odds-ratio, inverse-odds-ratio, direct -
distribution character default default, dnorm, dlaplace, ds, dgnorm, dlnorm, dinvgauss, dgamma -
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, LASSO, RIDGE, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, ... -
outliers character ignore ignore, use, select -
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
persistence untyped NULL -
phi numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete -
arma untyped NULL -
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc -
bounds character usual usual, admissible, none -
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
ets character conventional conventional, adam -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstAdam

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstAdam$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstAdam$new()

LearnerFcstAdam$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstAdam$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.adam")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

ARFIMA Forecast Learner

Description

ARFIMA model. Calls forecast::arfima() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.arfima")
lrn("fcst.arfima")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
drange untyped c(0, 0.5) -
estim character mle mle, ls -
lambda untyped NULL -
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
simulate logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bootstrap logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
npaths integer 5000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
max.p integer 5 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.q integer 5 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.order integer 5 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
start.p integer 2 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
start.q integer 2 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
ic character aicc aicc, aic, bic -
stepwise logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
nmodels integer 94 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
trace logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
approximation logical - TRUE, FALSE -
method character NULL CSS-ML, ML, CSS -
truncate integer NULL [1,∞)[1, \infty)
parallel logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
num.cores integer 2 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
transform.pars logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
fixed untyped NULL -
init untyped NULL -
SSinit character Gardner1980 Gardner1980, Rossignol2011 -
n.cond integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)
optim.method character BFGS Nelder-Mead, BFGS, CG, L-BFGS-B, SANN, Brent -
optim.control untyped list() -
kappa numeric 1e+06 (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstArfima

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstArfima$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstArfima$new()

LearnerFcstArfima$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstArfima$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Haslett J, Raftery AE (1989). “Space-time Modelling with Long-memory Dependence: Assessing Ireland's Wind Power Resource.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 38(1), 1–21.

Hyndman RJ, Khandakar Y (2008). “Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R.” Journal of Statistical Software, 27(3), 1–22. doi:10.18637/jss.v027.i03.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.arfima")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

ARIMA Forecast Learner

Description

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Forecast (ARIMA) model. Calls forecast::Arima() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.arima")
lrn("fcst.arima")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
order untyped c(0L, 0L, 0L) -
seasonal untyped c(0L, 0L, 0L) -
include.mean logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
include.drift logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
include.constant logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
lambda untyped NULL -
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
method character CSS-ML CSS-ML, ML, CSS -
simulate logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bootstrap logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
npaths integer 5000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
transform.pars logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
fixed untyped NULL -
init untyped NULL -
SSinit character Gardner1980 Gardner1980, Rossignol2011 -
n.cond integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)
optim.method character BFGS Nelder-Mead, BFGS, CG, L-BFGS-B, SANN, Brent -
optim.control untyped list() -
kappa numeric 1e+06 (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstArima

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstArima$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstArima$new()

LearnerFcstArima$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstArima$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Hyndman RJ, Athanasopoulos G (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd edition. OTexts, Melbourne, Australia. https://OTexts.com/fpp2/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.arima")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Auto ADAM Forecast Learner

Description

Auto Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM) model. Calls smooth::auto.adam() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.auto_adam")
lrn("fcst.auto_adam")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
model untyped "ZXZ" -
lags untyped - -
orders untyped list(ar = c(3, 3), i = c(2, 1), ma = c(3, 3), select = TRUE) -
regressors character use use, select, adapt -
occurrence character none none, auto, fixed, general, odds-ratio, inverse-odds-ratio, direct -
distribution character dnorm dnorm, dlaplace, ds, dgnorm, dlnorm, dinvgauss, dgamma -
outliers character ignore ignore, use, select -
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
persistence untyped NULL -
phi numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete -
arma untyped NULL -
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc -
bounds character usual usual, admissible, none -
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
parallel logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
ets character conventional conventional, adam -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstAutoAdam

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstAutoAdam$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoAdam$new()

LearnerFcstAutoAdam$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoAdam$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.auto_adam")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Auto ARIMA Forecast Learner

Description

Auto ARIMA model. Calls forecast::auto.arima() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.auto_arima")
lrn("fcst.auto_arima")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
d integer NA [0,∞)[0, \infty)
D integer NA [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.p integer 5 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.q integer 5 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.P integer 2 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.Q integer 2 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.order integer 5 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.d integer 2 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
max.D integer 1 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
start.p integer 2 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
start.q integer 2 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
start.P integer 1 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
start.Q integer 1 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
stationary logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
seasonal logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
ic character aicc aicc, aic, bic -
stepwise logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
nmodels integer 94 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
trace logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
approximation logical - TRUE, FALSE -
method character NULL CSS-ML, ML, CSS -
truncate integer NULL [1,∞)[1, \infty)
test character kpss kpss, adf, pp -
test.args untyped list() -
seasonal.test character seas seas, ocsb, hegy, ch -
seasonal.test.args untyped list() -
allowdrift logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
allowmean logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
parallel logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
num.cores integer 2 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
lambda untyped NULL -
simulate logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bootstrap logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
npaths integer 5000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
transform.pars logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
fixed untyped NULL -
init untyped NULL -
SSinit character Gardner1980 Gardner1980, Rossignol2011 -
n.cond integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)
optim.method character BFGS Nelder-Mead, BFGS, CG, L-BFGS-B, SANN, Brent -
optim.control untyped list() -
kappa numeric 1e+06 (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstAutoArima

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstAutoArima$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoArima$new()

LearnerFcstAutoArima$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoArima$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Hyndman RJ, Khandakar Y (2008). “Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R.” Journal of Statistical Software, 27(3), 1–22. doi:10.18637/jss.v027.i03.

Wang X, Smith K, Hyndman R (2006). “Characteristic-based clustering for time series data.” Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 13, 335–364.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.auto_arima")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Auto CES Forecast Learner

Description

Auto Complex Exponential Smoothing (CES) model. Calls smooth::auto.ces() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.auto_ces")
lrn("fcst.auto_ces")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
seasonality character none none, simple, partial, full
lags untyped -
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
bounds character admissible admissible, none
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE
regressors character use use, select, adapt

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstAutoCes

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstAutoCes$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoCes$new()

LearnerFcstAutoCes$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoCes$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.auto_ces")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Auto GUM Forecast Learner

Description

Automatic selection over Generalised Univariate Model (GUM) specifications via an information criterion. Calls smooth::auto.gum() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.auto_gum")
lrn("fcst.auto_gum")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
orders integer 3 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
lags integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)
type character additive additive, multiplicative, select -
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete -
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc -
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL -
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bounds character usual usual, admissible, none -
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
regressors character use use, select, adapt, integrate -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstAutoGum

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstAutoGum$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoGum$new()

LearnerFcstAutoGum$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoGum$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.auto_gum")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Auto Multiple-Seasonal ARIMA Forecast Learner

Description

Automatic order selection for Multiple-Seasonal ARIMA. Picks orders minimising the chosen information criterion. Calls smooth::auto.msarima() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.auto_msarima")
lrn("fcst.auto_msarima")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
orders untyped list(ar = c(3, 3), i = c(2, 1), ma = c(3, 3))
lags untyped -
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
bounds character usual usual, admissible, none
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE
regressors character use use, select, adapt

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstAutoMsarima

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstAutoMsarima$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoMsarima$new()

LearnerFcstAutoMsarima$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoMsarima$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.auto_msarima")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Auto State-Space ARIMA Forecast Learner

Description

Automatic order selection for State-Space ARIMA. Picks orders minimising the chosen information criterion. Calls smooth::auto.ssarima() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.auto_ssarima")
lrn("fcst.auto_ssarima")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
orders untyped list(ar = c(3, 3), i = c(2, 1), ma = c(3, 3))
lags untyped -
fast logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE
constant logical NULL TRUE, FALSE
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
bounds character admissible admissible, usual, none
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE
regressors character use use, select, adapt

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstAutoSsarima

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstAutoSsarima$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoSsarima$new()

LearnerFcstAutoSsarima$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstAutoSsarima$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.auto_ssarima")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Bagged Model Forecast Learner

Description

Bootstrap-aggregated forecasts. The series is resampled via the Box-Cox/Loess moving block bootstrap of Bergmeir, Hyndman, and Benítez and fn is fit on each replicate. The forecast averages across the ensemble. Calls forecast::baggedModel() from package forecast.

fn is the model-fitting function applied to each bootstrap replicate (defaults to forecast::ets()). Any function returning an object compatible with forecast::forecast() may be passed, e.g. forecast::auto.arima() or forecast::Arima() with fixed orders via a wrapper. The number of bootstrap replicates is controlled by num, and block_size configures the moving block length in forecast::bld.mbb.bootstrap(). Prediction intervals from forecast::forecast.baggedModel() are the empirical bootstrap range (not configurable by level), so only "response" is offered as a predict_type.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.bagged")
lrn("fcst.bagged")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Range
fn untyped - -
num integer 100 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
block_size integer NULL [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstBaggedModel

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstBaggedModel$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstBaggedModel$new()

LearnerFcstBaggedModel$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstBaggedModel$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Bergmeir C, Hyndman RJ, Benítez JM (2016). “Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box-Cox transformation.” International Journal of Forecasting, 32(2), 303–312. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.07.002.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.bagged")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

BATS Forecast Learner

Description

Exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS) model. Calls forecast::bats() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.bats")
lrn("fcst.bats")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
use.box.cox logical NULL TRUE, FALSE -
use.trend logical NULL TRUE, FALSE -
use.damped.trend logical NULL TRUE, FALSE -
seasonal.periods untyped NULL -
use.arma.errors logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
use.parallel logical - TRUE, FALSE -
num.cores integer 2 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
bc.lower numeric 0 (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
bc.upper numeric 1 (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstBats

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstBats$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstBats$new()

LearnerFcstBats$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstBats$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

De Livera AM, Hyndman RJ, Snyder RD (2011). “Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(496), 1513–1527.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.bats")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

CES Forecast Learner

Description

Complex Exponential Smoothing (CES) model. Calls smooth::ces() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.ces")
lrn("fcst.ces")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
seasonality character none none, simple, partial, full
lags untyped -
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete
a untyped NULL
b untyped NULL
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
bounds character admissible admissible, none
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE
regressors character use use, select, adapt

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstCes

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstCes$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstCes$new()

LearnerFcstCes$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstCes$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.ces")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Croston Forecast Learner

Description

Croston model. Calls forecast::croston_model() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.croston")
lrn("fcst.croston")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
alpha numeric 0.1 [0,1][0, 1]
type character croston croston, sba, sbj -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstCroston

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstCroston$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstCroston$new()

LearnerFcstCroston$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstCroston$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Croston JD (1972). “Forecasting and stock control for intermittent demands.” Journal of the Operational Research Society, 23(3), 289–303.

Shale EA, Boylan JE, Johnston F (2006). “Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average.” Journal of the Operational Research Society, 57(5), 588–592.

Shenstone L, Hyndman RJ (2005). “Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting.” Journal of Forecasting, 24(6), 389–402.

Syntetos AA, Boylan JE (2001). “On the bias of intermittent demand estimates.” International Journal of Production Economics, 71(1-3), 457–466.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.croston")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Extreme Learning Machine Forecast Learner

Description

Automatic time series forecasting with an extreme learning machine neural network, including automatic input lag selection, deterministic seasonality handling, and ensemble combination across multiple training repetitions. Calls nnfor::elm() from package nnfor.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.elm")
lrn("fcst.elm")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, nnfor, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
m integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)
hd untyped NULL -
type character lasso lasso, ridge, step, lm -
reps integer 20 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
comb character median median, mean, mode -
lags untyped NULL -
keep untyped NULL -
difforder untyped NULL -
sel.lag logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
direct logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
allow.det.season logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
det.type character auto auto, bin, trg -
barebone logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
retrain logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstElm

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstElm$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstElm$new()

LearnerFcstElm$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstElm$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Kourentzes N, Barrow DK, Crone SF (2014). “Neural network ensemble operators for time series forecasting.” Expert Systems with Applications, 41(9), 4235–4244. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.12.011.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.elm")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Exponential Smoothing Forecast Learner

Description

Exponential smoothing (ETS) model in state-space form. Supports multiple seasonal lags natively (e.g. lags = c(1, 24, 168) for hourly data with daily and weekly cycles). Calls smooth::es() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.es")
lrn("fcst.es")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
model untyped "ZXZ" -
lags untyped - -
persistence untyped NULL -
phi numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete -
initialSeason untyped NULL -
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc -
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL -
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bounds character usual usual, admissible, none -
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
regressors character use use, select -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstEs

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstEs$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstEs$new()

LearnerFcstEs$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstEs$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.es")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

ETS Forecast Learner

Description

Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS) model. Calls forecast::ets() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.ets")
lrn("fcst.ets")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
model untyped "ZZZ" -
damped logical NULL TRUE, FALSE -
alpha numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
beta numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
gamma numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
phi numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
additive.only logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
lambda untyped NULL -
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
lower untyped c(rep.int(1e-04, 3), 0.8) -
upper untyped c(rep.int(0.9999, 3), 0.98) -
opt.crit character lik lik, amse, mse, sigma, mae -
nmse integer 3 [0,30][0, 30]
bounds character both both, usual, admissible -
ic character aicc aicc, aic, bic -
restrict logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
allow.multiplicative.trend logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
simulate logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bootstrap logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
npaths integer 5000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstEts

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstEts$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstEts$new()

LearnerFcstEts$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstEts$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB, Snyder RD, Grose S (2002). “A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods.” International Journal of Forecasting, 18(3), 439–454.

Hyndman RJ, Akram M, Archibald B (2008). “The admissible parameter space for exponential smoothing models.” Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 60(2), 407–426.

Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB, Ord JK, Snyder RD (2008). Forecasting with exponential smoothing: the state space approach. Springer-Verlag. https://robjhyndman.com/expsmooth/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.ets")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

GUM Forecast Learner

Description

Generalised Univariate Model (GUM): a single-source-of-error state-space model with a user-defined transition matrix, persistence vector and measurement vector. Generalises exponential smoothing beyond the ETS structural template. Calls smooth::gum() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.gum")
lrn("fcst.gum")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
orders untyped c(1, 1)
lags untyped -
type character additive additive, multiplicative
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete
persistence untyped NULL
transition untyped NULL
measurement untyped NULL
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
bounds character usual usual, admissible, none
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE
regressors character use use, select, adapt, integrate

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstGum

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstGum$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstGum$new()

LearnerFcstGum$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstGum$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.gum")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Holt-Winters Forecast Learner

Description

Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with optional trend and additive or multiplicative seasonal component. Smoothing parameters are estimated by minimizing the squared one-step prediction error. Calls stats::HoltWinters() from package stats and forecasts via forecast::forecast().

Setting beta = FALSE fits a simple exponential smoothing model (no trend). Setting gamma = FALSE fits a non-seasonal model.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.holt_winters")
lrn("fcst.holt_winters")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
alpha numeric NULL [0,1][0, 1]
beta numeric NULL [0,1][0, 1]
gamma numeric NULL [0,1][0, 1]
seasonal character additive additive, multiplicative -
start.periods integer 2 [2,∞)[2, \infty)
l.start numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
b.start numeric NULL (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
s.start untyped NULL -
optim.start untyped c(alpha = 0.3, beta = 0.1, gamma = 0.1) -
optim.control untyped list() -
lambda untyped NULL -
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstHoltWinters

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstHoltWinters$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstHoltWinters$new()

LearnerFcstHoltWinters$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstHoltWinters$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Holt CC (2004). “Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages.” International Journal of Forecasting, 20(1), 5–10. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.015.

Winters PR (1960). “Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages.” Management Science, 6(3), 324–342. doi:10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.holt_winters")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Mean Forecast Learner

Description

Mean model. Calls forecast::mean_model() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.mean")
lrn("fcst.mean")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
lambda untyped NULL
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstMean

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstMean$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstMean$new()

LearnerFcstMean$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstMean$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Hyndman RJ, Athanasopoulos G (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd edition. OTexts, Melbourne, Australia. https://OTexts.com/fpp2/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.mean")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Multilayer Perceptron Forecast Learner

Description

Automatic time series forecasting with a multilayer perceptron neural network, including automatic input lag selection, deterministic seasonality handling, and ensemble combination across multiple training repetitions. Calls nnfor::mlp() from package nnfor.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.mlp")
lrn("fcst.mlp")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, nnfor, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
m integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)
hd untyped NULL -
reps integer 20 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
comb character median median, mean, mode -
lags untyped NULL -
keep untyped NULL -
difforder untyped NULL -
sel.lag logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
allow.det.season logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
det.type character auto auto, bin, trg -
hd.auto.type character set set, valid, cv, elm -
hd.max integer NULL [1,∞)[1, \infty)
retrain logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstMlp

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstMlp$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstMlp$new()

LearnerFcstMlp$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstMlp$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Kourentzes N, Barrow DK, Crone SF (2014). “Neural network ensemble operators for time series forecasting.” Expert Systems with Applications, 41(9), 4235–4244. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2013.12.011.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.mlp")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Multiple-Seasonal ARIMA Forecast Learner

Description

Multiple-Seasonal ARIMA model in state-space form. Supports multiple seasonal lags natively (e.g. lags = c(1, 24, 168) for hourly data with daily and weekly cycles). Calls smooth::msarima() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.msarima")
lrn("fcst.msarima")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
orders untyped list(ar = 0, i = 1, ma = 1)
lags untyped 1
constant logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
arma untyped NULL
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
bounds character usual usual, admissible, none
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE
regressors character use use, select, adapt

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstMsarima

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstMsarima$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstMsarima$new()

LearnerFcstMsarima$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstMsarima$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.msarima")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Neural Network Forecast Learner

Description

Single Layer Neural Network. Calls forecast::nnetar() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.nnetar")
lrn("fcst.nnetar")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
p integer - [0,∞)[0, \infty)
P integer 1 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
size integer NULL [1,∞)[1, \infty)
repeats integer 20 (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
lambda untyped NULL -
scale.inputs logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
parallel logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
num.cores integer 2 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
bootstrap logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
npaths integer 1000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
innov untyped NULL -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstNnetar

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstNnetar$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstNnetar$new()

LearnerFcstNnetar$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstNnetar$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Ripley BD (1996). Pattern Recognition and Neural Networks. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/cbo9780511812651.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.nnetar")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Prophet Forecast Learner

Description

Prophet model. Calls prophet::prophet() from package prophet.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.prophet")
lrn("fcst.prophet")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, prophet

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
growth character linear linear, logistic, flat -
changepoints untyped NULL -
n.changepoints integer 25 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
changepoint.range numeric 0.8 [0,1][0, 1]
yearly.seasonality untyped "auto" -
weekly.seasonality untyped "auto" -
daily.seasonality untyped "auto" -
holidays untyped NULL -
seasonality.mode character additive additive, multiplicative -
seasonality.prior.scale numeric 10 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
holidays.prior.scale numeric 10 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
changepoint.prior.scale numeric 0.05 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
mcmc.samples integer 0 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
interval.width numeric 0.8 [0,1][0, 1]
uncertainty.samples integer 1000 [0,∞)[0, \infty)
backend character NULL rstan, cmdstanr -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstProphet

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstProphet$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstProphet$new()

LearnerFcstProphet$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstProphet$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Taylor SJ, Letham B (2018). “Forecasting at Scale.” The American Statistician, 72(1), 37–45. doi:10.1080/00031305.2017.1380080.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.prophet")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Random Walk Forecast Learner

Description

Random walk model. Calls forecast::rw_model() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.random_walk")
lrn("fcst.random_walk")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
lag integer 1 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
drift logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
lambda untyped NULL -
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
simulate logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bootstrap logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
npaths integer 5000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstRandomWalk

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstRandomWalk$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstRandomWalk$new()

LearnerFcstRandomWalk$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstRandomWalk$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.random_walk")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Local and Global Trend Forecast Learner

Description

Bayesian exponential smoothing with a nonlinear global trend (LGT/SGT), Student-t errors, and optional heteroscedasticity, fitted via MCMC. The seasonal period is taken from the frequency of the series. Calls Rlgt::rlgt() from package Rlgt.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.rlgt")
lrn("fcst.rlgt")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, Rlgt

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
seasonality integer 1 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
seasonality2 integer 1 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
seasonality.type character multiplicative multiplicative, generalized -
error.size.method character std std, innov -
level.method character HW HW, seasAvg, HW_sAvg -
method character Gibbs Gibbs, Stan -
homoscedastic logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
control untyped NULL -
verbose logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
NUM_OF_TRIALS integer 2000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstRlgt

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstRlgt$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstRlgt$new()

LearnerFcstRlgt$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstRlgt$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Smyl S, Bergmeir C, Wibowo E, Ng TW, Long X, Dokumentov A, Schmidt D (2025). Rlgt: Bayesian Exponential Smoothing Models with Trend Modifications. R package version 0.2-3, https://github.com/cbergmeir/Rlgt.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.rlgt")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Simple Moving Average Forecast Learner

Description

Simple moving average. The forecast is the mean of the last order observations. If order is NULL (the default), the optimal window is selected automatically according to the chosen information criterion ic. Calls smooth::sma() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.sma")
lrn("fcst.sma")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
order integer NULL [1,∞)[1, \infty)
ic character AICc AICc, AIC, BIC, BICc -
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
fast logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSma

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstSma$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstSma$new()

LearnerFcstSma$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstSma$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.sma")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Spline Forecast Learner

Description

Cubic spline stochastic model. Calls forecast::spline_model() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.spline")
lrn("fcst.spline")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
method character gcv gcv, mle -
lambda untyped NULL -
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
simulate logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bootstrap logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
npaths integer 5000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstSpline

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstSpline$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstSpline$new()

LearnerFcstSpline$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstSpline$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Hyndman RJ, King ML, Pitrun I, Billah B (2005). “Local linear forecasts using cubic smoothing splines.” Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 47(1), 87–99.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.spline")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

State-Space ARIMA Forecast Learner

Description

State-Space ARIMA model. Supports multiple seasonal lags natively (e.g. lags = c(1, 24, 168) for hourly data with daily and weekly cycles). Calls smooth::ssarima() from package smooth.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.ssarima")
lrn("fcst.ssarima")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, smooth

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
orders untyped list(ar = 0, i = 1, ma = 1)
lags untyped -
constant logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
arma untyped NULL
initial character backcasting backcasting, optimal, two-stage, complete
loss character likelihood likelihood, MSE, MAE, HAM, MSEh, TMSE, GTMSE, MSCE, GPL
holdout logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE
bounds character admissible admissible, usual, none
silent logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE
regressors character use use, select, adapt

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstSmooth -> LearnerFcstSsarima

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstSsarima$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstSsarima$new()

LearnerFcstSsarima$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstSsarima$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Svetunkov I (2023). “Smooth forecasting with the smooth package in R.” 2301.01790, https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.01790.

Svetunkov I (2023). Forecasting and Analytics with the Augmented Dynamic Adaptive Model (ADAM), 1st edition. Chapman and Hall/CRC. doi:10.1201/9781003452652. https://openforecast.org/adam/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.ssarima")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

STL + ETS/ARIMA Forecast Learner

Description

Forecasts of seasonal time series using STL decomposition. The seasonal component is forecast naively and the seasonally-adjusted series is forecast with either an ETS or ARIMA model. Calls forecast::stlm() from package forecast.

The task must provide a seasonal time series (frequency > 1).

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.stlm")
lrn("fcst.stlm")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
s.window untyped 7L + 4L * seq_len(6L) -
t.window integer NULL [1,∞)[1, \infty)
robust logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
method character ets ets, arima -
modelfunction untyped NULL -
etsmodel untyped "ZZN" -
lambda untyped NULL -
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
allow.multiplicative.trend logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstStlm

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstStlm$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstStlm$new()

LearnerFcstStlm$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstStlm$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Cleveland RB, Cleveland WS, McRae JE, Terpenning I (1990). “STL: A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Loess.” Journal of Official Statistics, 6(1), 3–73.

Hyndman RJ, Athanasopoulos G (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd edition. OTexts, Melbourne, Australia. https://OTexts.com/fpp2/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.stlm")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Structural Time Series Forecast Learner

Description

Structural time series model fit by maximum likelihood. Three model types are supported: local level, local linear trend, and basic structural model (level + trend + seasonal). Calls stats::StructTS() from package stats.

type = "BSM" requires a seasonal time series (frequency > 1). Prediction is performed via forecast::forecast.StructTS() which yields point forecasts and predictive intervals from the Kalman filter.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.struct_ts")
lrn("fcst.struct_ts")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
type character level level, trend, BSM
init untyped NULL
fixed untyped NULL
optim.control untyped NULL
lambda untyped NULL
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstStructTS

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstStructTS$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstStructTS$new()

LearnerFcstStructTS$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstStructTS$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Harvey AC (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.struct_ts")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

TBATS Forecast Learner

Description

Exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model. Calls forecast::tbats() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.tbats")
lrn("fcst.tbats")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”, “character”, “factor”, “ordered”, “POSIXct”, “Date”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
use.box.cox logical NULL TRUE, FALSE -
use.trend logical NULL TRUE, FALSE -
use.damped.trend logical NULL TRUE, FALSE -
seasonal.periods untyped NULL -
use.arma.errors logical TRUE TRUE, FALSE -
use.parallel logical - TRUE, FALSE -
num.cores integer 2 [1,∞)[1, \infty)
bc.lower numeric 0 (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
bc.upper numeric 1 (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
simulate logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
bootstrap logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE -
npaths integer 5000 [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstTbats

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstTbats$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstTbats$new()

LearnerFcstTbats$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstTbats$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

De Livera AM, Hyndman RJ, Snyder RD (2011). “Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(496), 1513–1527.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.tbats")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Theta Forecast Learner

Description

Theta model. Calls forecast::theta_model() from package forecast.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.theta")
lrn("fcst.theta")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
lambda untyped NULL
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstTheta

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstTheta$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstTheta$new()

LearnerFcstTheta$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstTheta$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Assimakopoulos V, Nikolopoulos K (2000). “The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting.” International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 521–530.

Hyndman RJ, Billah B (2003). “Unmasking the Theta method.” International Journal of Forecasting, 19(2), 287–290.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.theta")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Count Time Series Forecast Learner

Description

Generalized linear model for count time series (INGARCH). Calls tscount::tsglm() from package tscount.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.tscount")
lrn("fcst.tscount")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, tscount

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels Range
past_obs untyped NULL -
past_mean untyped NULL -
external untyped FALSE -
link character identity identity, log -
distr character poisson poisson, nbinom -
B integer 1000 [10,∞)[10, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstTscount

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstTscount$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstTscount$new()

LearnerFcstTscount$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstTscount$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Liboschik T, Fokianos K, Fried R (2017). “tscount: An R Package for Analysis of Count Time Series Following Generalized Linear Models.” Journal of Statistical Software, 82(5), 1–51. doi:10.18637/jss.v082.i05.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tslm

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.tscount")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Time Series Linear Model Forecast Learner

Description

Time series linear model. Calls forecast::tslm() from package forecast.

If formula is not set, the model is fit with the trend and season terms of forecast::tslm() plus all features, i.e. ⁠<target> ~ trend + season + <features>⁠.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Learner can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_learners or with the associated sugar function mlr3::lrn(): 

mlr_learners$get("fcst.tslm")
lrn("fcst.tslm")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Predict Types: “response”, “quantiles”

  • Feature Types: “logical”, “integer”, “numeric”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast, forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Levels
formula untyped -
lambda untyped NULL
biasadj logical FALSE TRUE, FALSE

Super classes

mlr3::Learner -> mlr3::LearnerRegr -> LearnerFcst -> LearnerFcstForecast -> LearnerFcstTslm

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

LearnerFcstTslm$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
LearnerFcstTslm$new()

LearnerFcstTslm$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
LearnerFcstTslm$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Hyndman RJ, Athanasopoulos G (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd edition. OTexts, Melbourne, Australia. https://OTexts.com/fpp2/.

See Also

Other Learner: LearnerFcst, mlr_learners_fcst.adam, mlr_learners_fcst.arfima, mlr_learners_fcst.arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_adam, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_arima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ces, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_gum, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.auto_ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.bagged, mlr_learners_fcst.bats, mlr_learners_fcst.ces, mlr_learners_fcst.croston, mlr_learners_fcst.elm, mlr_learners_fcst.es, mlr_learners_fcst.ets, mlr_learners_fcst.gum, mlr_learners_fcst.holt_winters, mlr_learners_fcst.mean, mlr_learners_fcst.mlp, mlr_learners_fcst.msarima, mlr_learners_fcst.nnetar, mlr_learners_fcst.prophet, mlr_learners_fcst.random_walk, mlr_learners_fcst.rlgt, mlr_learners_fcst.sma, mlr_learners_fcst.spline, mlr_learners_fcst.ssarima, mlr_learners_fcst.stlm, mlr_learners_fcst.struct_ts, mlr_learners_fcst.tbats, mlr_learners_fcst.theta, mlr_learners_fcst.tscount

Examples

# Define the Learner and set parameter values
learner = lrn("fcst.tslm")
print(learner)

# Define a Task
task = tsk("airpassengers")

# Create train and test set
ids = partition(task)

# Train the learner on the training ids
learner$train(task, row_ids = ids$train)

# Print the model
print(learner$model)

# Importance method
if ("importance" %in% learner$properties) print(learner$importance())

# Make predictions for the test rows
predictions = learner$predict(task, row_ids = ids$test)

# Score the predictions
predictions$score()

Autocorrelation at Lag 1

Description

Measures the autocorrelation of the forecast residuals at lag 1. Values close to zero indicate that residuals are uncorrelated, while values far from zero suggest the model is not capturing all available information.

Details

Computed as the sample autocorrelation of the residuals at lag 1 using stats::acf().

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.acf1")
msr("fcst.acf1")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: [−1,1][-1, 1]

  • Minimize: NA

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “response”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Empty ParamSet

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureACF1

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureACF1$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureACF1$new()

MeasureACF1$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureACF1$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Empirical Coverage

Description

Measures the proportion of true values that fall within the prediction interval. A well-calibrated prediction interval at level 1−α1 - \alpha should have coverage close to 1−α1 - \alpha.

Details

Coverage=1n∑i=1n1{li≤yi≤ui}\mathrm{Coverage} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \mathbf{1}\{l_i \le y_i \le u_i\}

where lil_i and uiu_i are the lower and upper bounds of the prediction interval and yiy_i is the observed value.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.coverage")
msr("fcst.coverage")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: [0,1][0, 1]

  • Minimize: NA

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “quantiles”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Range
alpha numeric - [0,1][0, 1]

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureCoverage

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureCoverage$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureCoverage$new()

MeasureCoverage$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureCoverage$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Mean Absolute Scaled Error

Description

Measures the mean absolute error of the forecast scaled by the in-sample mean absolute error of the naive (or seasonal naive) forecast. Values less than one indicate the forecast is better than the naive baseline.

Details

MASE=1n∑i=1n∣yi−y^i∣1T−m∑t=m+1T∣zt−zt−m∣\mathrm{MASE} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{\lvert y_i - \hat y_i \rvert} {\frac{1}{T-m} \sum_{t=m+1}^T \lvert z_t - z_{t-m} \rvert}

where zz is the training series, mm is the seasonal period, and TT is the length of the training series.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.mase")
msr("fcst.mase")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: [0,∞)[0, \infty)

  • Minimize: TRUE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “response”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Range
period integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureMASE

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureMASE$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureMASE$new()

MeasureMASE$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureMASE$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB (2006). “Another look at measures of forecast accuracy.” International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679–688.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Mean Directional Accuracy

Description

Measure of the proportion of correctly predicted directions between successive observations in forecast tasks.

Details

MDA=(a−b) 1n−1∑i=2n1{sign(yi−yi−1)=sign(y^i−yi−1)}  +  b\mathrm{MDA} = (a - b)\,\frac{1}{n-1} \sum_{i=2}^n \mathbf{1}\{\mathrm{sign}(y_i - y_{i-1}) = \mathrm{sign}(\hat y_i - y_{i-1})\} \;+\; b

where a is the reward for a correct direction (default 1), b is the penalty for an incorrect direction (default 0), and n is the number of observations.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.mda")
msr("fcst.mda")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)

  • Minimize: FALSE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “response”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Range
reward numeric - (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)
penalty numeric - (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureMDA

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureMDA$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureMDA$new()

MeasureMDA$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureMDA$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Blaskowitz O, Herwartz H (2011). “On economic evaluation of directional forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting, 27(4), 1058–1065.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Mean Directional Percentage Value

Description

Measure of average percentage‐weighted directional accuracy in forecast tasks.

Details

MDPV=1n−1∑i=2n∣yi−yi−1yi−1∣×{+1,if sign(yi−yi−1)=sign(y^i−yi−1),−1,otherwise.\mathrm{MDPV} = \frac{1}{n-1} \sum_{i=2}^n \left\lvert\frac{y_i - y_{i-1}}{y_{i-1}}\right\rvert \times \begin{cases} +1, & \text{if }\mathrm{sign}(y_i - y_{i-1}) = \mathrm{sign}(\hat y_i - y_{i-1}),\\ -1, & \text{otherwise.} \end{cases}

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.mdpv")
msr("fcst.mdpv")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)

  • Minimize: FALSE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “response”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Empty ParamSet

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureMDPV

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureMDPV$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureMDPV$new()

MeasureMDPV$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureMDPV$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Blaskowitz O, Herwartz H (2011). “On economic evaluation of directional forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting, 27(4), 1058–1065.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Mean Directional Value

Description

Measure of average magnitude‐weighted directional accuracy in forecast tasks.

Details

MDV=1n−1∑i=2n∣yi−yi−1∣×{+1,if sign(yi−yi−1)=sign(y^i−yi−1),−1,otherwise.\mathrm{MDV} = \frac{1}{n-1} \sum_{i=2}^n \lvert y_i - y_{i-1}\rvert \times \begin{cases} +1, & \text{if }\mathrm{sign}(y_i - y_{i-1}) = \mathrm{sign}(\hat y_i - y_{i-1}),\\ -1, & \text{otherwise.} \end{cases}

where n is the number of observations.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.mdv")
msr("fcst.mdv")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)

  • Minimize: FALSE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “response”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Empty ParamSet

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureMDV

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureMDV$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureMDV$new()

MeasureMDV$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureMDV$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Blaskowitz O, Herwartz H (2011). “On economic evaluation of directional forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting, 27(4), 1058–1065.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Mean Percentage Error

Description

Measure of the average signed percentage error of forecasts. Positive values indicate systematic under-forecasting, negative values indicate over-forecasting.

Details

MPE=100n∑i=1nyi−y^iyi\mathrm{MPE} = \frac{100}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{y_i - \hat y_i}{y_i}

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.mpe")
msr("fcst.mpe")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: (−∞,∞)(-\infty, \infty)

  • Minimize: NA

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “response”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Empty ParamSet

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureMPE

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureMPE$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureMPE$new()

MeasureMPE$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureMPE$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Mean Scaled Interval Score

Description

Measures the quality of central prediction intervals, scaling the interval (Winkler) score by the in-sample mean absolute error of the naive (or seasonal naive) forecast. The interval score rewards narrow intervals and penalizes observations falling outside them, and the scaling makes the measure comparable across series of different magnitudes. This is the prediction-interval metric used in the M4 competition. Smaller scores indicate better calibrated and narrower intervals.

Details

For a central interval at level 1 - alpha with lower and upper bounds lil_i and uiu_i (the alpha/2 and 1 - alpha/2 quantiles):

MSIS=1n∑i=1n(ui−li)+2α(li−yi)1{yi<li}+2α(yi−ui)1{yi>ui}1T−m∑t=m+1T∣zt−zt−m∣\mathrm{MSIS} = \frac{\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n (u_i - l_i) + \frac{2}{\alpha}(l_i - y_i)\mathbf{1}\{y_i < l_i\} + \frac{2}{\alpha}(y_i - u_i)\mathbf{1}\{y_i > u_i\}} {\frac{1}{T-m} \sum_{t=m+1}^T \lvert z_t - z_{t-m} \rvert}

where zz is the training series, mm is the seasonal period, and TT is the length of the training series. For keyed tasks the score is computed per series and averaged.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.msis")
msr("fcst.msis")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: [0,∞)[0, \infty)

  • Minimize: TRUE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “quantiles”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Range
alpha numeric - [0,1][0, 1]
period integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureMSIS

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureMSIS$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureMSIS$new()

MeasureMSIS$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureMSIS$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Gneiting T, Raftery AE (2007). “Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102(477), 359–378.

Makridakis S, Spiliotis E, Assimakopoulos V (2020). “The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods.” International Journal of Forecasting, 36(1), 54–74.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Pinball Loss

Description

Measures the quality of quantile (probabilistic) forecasts using the pinball loss, also known as the quantile loss. The loss is averaged over all observations and all predicted quantile levels. Smaller scores indicate better calibrated quantile forecasts.

Details

For a single quantile level τ\tau with forecast qiq_i and observation yiy_i the pinball loss is

Lτ(yi,qi)={τ (yi−qi),if yi≥qi(1−τ) (qi−yi),if yi<qiL_\tau(y_i, q_i) = \begin{cases} \tau\,(y_i - q_i), & \text{if } y_i \ge q_i \\ (1 - \tau)\,(q_i - y_i), & \text{if } y_i < q_i \end{cases}

The reported score is twice the mean of LτL_\tau over all observations and all quantile levels τ\tau, matching the convention used by fabletools so that the median (τ=0.5\tau = 0.5) pinball loss equals the mean absolute error.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.pinball")
msr("fcst.pinball")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: [0,∞)[0, \infty)

  • Minimize: TRUE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “quantiles”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Empty ParamSet

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasurePinball

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasurePinball$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasurePinball$new()

MeasurePinball$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasurePinball$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Koenker R, Bassett G (1978). “Regression Quantiles.” Econometrica, 46(1), 33–50.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Root Mean Squared Scaled Error

Description

Measures the root mean squared error of the forecast scaled by the in-sample mean squared error of the naive (or seasonal naive) forecast. Values less than one indicate the forecast is better than the naive baseline.

Details

RMSSE=1n∑i=1n(yi−y^i)21T−m∑t=m+1T(zt−zt−m)2\mathrm{RMSSE} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{(y_i - \hat y_i)^2} {\frac{1}{T-m} \sum_{t=m+1}^T (z_t - z_{t-m})^2}}

where zz is the training series, mm is the seasonal period, and TT is the length of the training series.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.rmsse")
msr("fcst.rmsse")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: [0,∞)[0, \infty)

  • Minimize: TRUE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “response”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Range
period integer - [1,∞)[1, \infty)

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureRMSSE

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureRMSSE$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureRMSSE$new()

MeasureRMSSE$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureRMSSE$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB (2006). “Another look at measures of forecast accuracy.” International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679–688.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.wape, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Weighted Absolute Percentage Error

Description

Measure of the total absolute error of forecasts as a percentage of the total absolute truth. It weights each error by the magnitude of the series, making it robust to individual observations close to zero where the ordinary percentage error is undefined.

Details

WAPE=100⋅∑i=1n∣yi−y^i∣∑i=1n∣yi∣\mathrm{WAPE} = 100 \cdot \frac{\sum_{i=1}^n \lvert y_i - \hat y_i \rvert}{\sum_{i=1}^n \lvert y_i \rvert}

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.wape")
msr("fcst.wape")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: [0,∞)[0, \infty)

  • Minimize: TRUE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “response”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Empty ParamSet

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureWAPE

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureWAPE$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureWAPE$new()

MeasureWAPE$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureWAPE$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.winkler

Winkler Score

Description

Measures the quality of prediction intervals by combining their width with a penalty for observations falling outside the interval. Smaller scores indicate better calibrated and narrower intervals.

Details

Wi={(ui−li)+2α(li−yi),if yi<li(ui−li),if li≤yi≤ui(ui−li)+2α(yi−ui),if yi>uiW_i = \begin{cases} (u_i - l_i) + \frac{2}{\alpha}(l_i - y_i), & \text{if } y_i < l_i \\ (u_i - l_i), & \text{if } l_i \le y_i \le u_i \\ (u_i - l_i) + \frac{2}{\alpha}(y_i - u_i), & \text{if } y_i > u_i \end{cases}

where lil_i and uiu_i are the lower and upper bounds of the prediction interval, yiy_i is the observed value, and α=1−level/100\alpha = 1 - \text{level}/100 is the significance level. The Winkler score is then the mean of WiW_i over all observations.

Dictionary

This mlr3::Measure can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr3::mlr_measures or with the associated sugar function mlr3::msr(): 

mlr_measures$get("fcst.winkler")
msr("fcst.winkler")

Task type

Forecast measures are registered with task_type = "regr" so they compose with the standard regression measures (e.g. mlr3::mlr_measures_regr.rmse) on the PredictionFcst that forecast learners produce. List them via the key prefix, not the task type, as the latter returns nothing: 

as.data.table(mlr_measures)[grepl("^fcst", key)]

Meta Information

  • Task type: “regr”

  • Range: [0,∞)[0, \infty)

  • Minimize: TRUE

  • Average: macro

  • Required Prediction: “quantiles”

  • Required Packages: mlr3, mlr3forecast

Parameters

Id Type Default Range
alpha numeric - [0,1][0, 1]

Super classes

mlr3::Measure -> mlr3::MeasureRegr -> MeasureWinkler

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

MeasureWinkler$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
MeasureWinkler$new()

MeasureWinkler$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
MeasureWinkler$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Winkler RL (1972). “A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Interval Estimation.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67(337), 187–191.

See Also

Other Measure: mlr_measures_fcst.acf1, mlr_measures_fcst.coverage, mlr_measures_fcst.mase, mlr_measures_fcst.mda, mlr_measures_fcst.mdpv, mlr_measures_fcst.mdv, mlr_measures_fcst.mpe, mlr_measures_fcst.msis, mlr_measures_fcst.pinball, mlr_measures_fcst.rmsse, mlr_measures_fcst.wape

Time Series Feature Extraction (catch22)

Description

This PipeOp extracts the 22 (or 24) canonical time series characteristics (catch22) from the target variable. For more details, see Rcatch22::catch22_all(), which is called internally on the ordered target vector.

For other time series feature extractors, see PipeOpFcstTsfeats and PipeOpFcstFeasts.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc, as well as:

  • catch24 :: logical(1)
    If TRUE, additionally compute the mean and standard deviation (the catch24 set). Default FALSE.

Naming

The new columns are named ⁠{target}_catch22_{feature}⁠. If the target was called "y" and the feature is "DN_HistogramMode_5", the corresponding new column will be called "y_catch22_DN_HistogramMode_5".

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc -> PipeOpFcstCatch22

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstCatch22$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstCatch22$new(id = "fcst.catch22", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.catch22".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstCatch22$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstCatch22$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
po = po("fcst.catch22")
out = po$train(list(task))[[1L]]
out$head()

Time Series Feature Extraction (feasts)

Description

Computes per-series summary features from the target variable via fabletools::features() with feature functions from the feasts package, and broadcasts them as constant columns to every row of the corresponding series. For an unkeyed task the features are broadcast to every row. For a keyed task each key contributes one feature vector.

This is the feasts (tidyverts) counterpart of PipeOpFcstTsfeats. Predicting on a key that was not seen during training is an error.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc, as well as:

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc -> PipeOpFcstFeasts

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstFeasts$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstFeasts$new(id = "fcst.feasts", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.feasts".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstFeasts$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstFeasts$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
po = po("fcst.feasts", features = list(feasts::feat_acf))
out = po$train(list(task))[[1L]]
out$head()

# select features by tag via fabletools::feature_set() (requires feasts to be attached so its
# feature registry is populated)
library(feasts)
features = fabletools::feature_set(pkgs = "feasts", tags = "autocorrelation")
po = po("fcst.feasts", features = features)
po$train(list(task))[[1L]]$head()

Create Fourier Features for Seasonality

Description

Creates pairs of Fourier (harmonic) terms sin(2 * pi * k * t / period) and cos(2 * pi * k * t / period) as new feature columns, for ⁠k = 1, ..., K⁠ harmonics per seasonal period, where t is the per-series time position. They encode seasonality as a flexible alternative to seasonal lags, in particular for long or non-integer periods and multiple seasonalities at once.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreprocSimple, as well as the following parameters:

  • period :: numeric() | NULL
    Seasonal period(s), in number of observations per cycle. May be non-integer and may contain multiple periods for multiple seasonalities. If NULL (default), the period is derived from the task's frequency (task$freq).

  • K :: integer()
    Number of Fourier harmonics per period. Either a single value recycled to all periods, or one value per period. Each K must satisfy 2 * K <= period. Default 1L.

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreprocSimple -> PipeOpFcstFourier

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstFourier$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstFourier$new(id = "fcst.fourier", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.fourier".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstFourier$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstFourier$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

De Livera AM, Hyndman RJ, Snyder RD (2011). “Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(496), 1513–1527.

Hyndman RJ, Khandakar Y (2008). “Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R.” Journal of Statistical Software, 27(3), 1–22. doi:10.18637/jss.v027.i03.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
po = po("fcst.fourier", period = 12, K = 3L)
new_task = po$train(list(task))[[1L]]
new_task$head()

Create Lags of Target Variable

Description

Creates lagged versions of the target variable as new feature columns.

At train time the first rows of each series have no history for the requested lags. These incomplete rows are dropped (the autoregressive-fit convention), so the base learner never sees NA lags. A keyed series shorter than the largest lag is dropped entirely, with a warning.

At predict time lags are computed from the full series history.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc, as well as the following parameters:

  • lags :: integer()
    The lags to create.

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc -> PipeOpFcstLags

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstLags$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstLags$new(id = "fcst.lags", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.lags".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstLags$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstLags$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
po = po("fcst.lags", lags = 1:3)
new_task = po$train(list(task))[[1L]]
new_task$head()

Create Rolling Window Features of Target Variable

Description

Creates rolling-window summary statistics of the target variable as new feature columns. The window ends at position t - lag (exclusive of the current and lag - 1 most recent values) and has size window_size. Use window_size = Inf for an expanding window that grows to include all history up to t - lag.

At train time rows whose window has insufficient history are NA and are dropped, matching PipeOpFcstLags. Predict keeps all rows.

At predict time rolling features are computed from the full series history.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc, as well as the following parameters:

  • funs :: character()
    Aggregation functions. Subset of c("mean", "median", "sd", "min", "max", "sum"). Default "mean".

  • window_sizes :: numeric()
    Window sizes. Every combination of funs and window_sizes produces one output column. Finite sizes must be whole numbers. Inf requests an expanding window (all history up to t - lag). Default 3L.

  • lag :: integer(1)
    Minimum lag before the window starts. Must be ⁠>= 1⁠ to avoid leakage. Default 1L.

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc -> PipeOpFcstRolling

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstRolling$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstRolling$new(id = "fcst.rolling", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.rolling".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstRolling$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstRolling$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
po = po("fcst.rolling", funs = c("mean", "sd"), window_sizes = c(3L, 12L))
new_task = po$train(list(task))[[1L]]
new_task$head()

Split a Forecast Task into Per-Series Tasks

Description

Splits a keyed (multi-series) TaskFcst into a Multiplicity of single-series tasks, one per key combination. Subsequent PipeOps are executed once per series until a po("fcst.unitekey") is reached, fitting one local model per series instead of one global model pooled across series.

The per-series tasks carry no key columns, so classical univariate learners (e.g. lrn("fcst.ets")) compose as well. The key groups observed during training are stored in the ⁠$state⁠ and the task must contain exactly the same key groups at predict time.

Parameters

This PipeOp has no parameters.

Super class

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> PipeOpFcstSplitKey

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstSplitKey$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstSplitKey$new(id = "fcst.splitkey", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.splitkey".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstSplitKey$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstSplitKey$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
library(data.table)
dt = CJ(
  month = seq(as.Date("2024-01-01"), by = "month", length.out = 36L),
  id = factor(c("a", "b"))
)
dt[, value := rnorm(.N, mean = fifelse(id == "a", 10, 20))]
task = as_task_fcst(dt, target = "value", order = "month", key = "id", freq = "month")
graph = po("fcst.splitkey") %>>% lrn("fcst.ets") %>>% po("fcst.unitekey")
flrn = as_learner(graph)$train(task)
forecast(flrn, task, 12L)

Box-Cox Transform the Target Variable

Description

Applies a Box-Cox transformation to the target variable to stabilize the variance, producing the new target BoxCox(y, lambda). The transformation is pointwise and monotonic, so no rows are dropped and predictions are inverted via forecast::InvBoxCox(). lambda = 0 is the log transformation. When lambda is NULL (default) it is estimated from the training data, per series on keyed tasks. Predicting a series not seen during training is an error.

Box-Cox and log transformations require strictly positive target values. Non-positive values produce NaN or an error. A negative estimated lambda can make forecast::InvBoxCox() return NA for upper quantiles. Set lower = 0 to avoid this.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTargetTrafo, as well as the following:

  • lambda :: numeric(1) | NULL
    Box-Cox transformation parameter. NULL (default) estimates it from the training data, 0 is the log transformation, any other numeric is used as a fixed value.

  • method :: character(1)
    Method used to estimate lambda when lambda = NULL, one of "guerrero" (default) or "loglik". See forecast::BoxCox.lambda().

  • lower :: numeric(1)
    Lower bound for the estimated lambda. Default -1.

  • upper :: numeric(1)
    Upper bound for the estimated lambda. Default 2.

Limitations

This PipeOp must not be placed inside a RecursiveForecaster or DirectForecaster graph and is rejected at construction. Use it inside a plain mlr3pipelines::GraphLearner via ppl("targettrafo", ...), or wrap the forecaster itself with ppl("targettrafo", ...) so all horizons are inverted together.

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTargetTrafo -> PipeOpTargetTrafoBoxCox

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpTargetTrafoBoxCox$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpTargetTrafoBoxCox$new(id = "fcst.targetboxcox", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.targetboxcox".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpTargetTrafoBoxCox$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpTargetTrafoBoxCox$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
split = partition(task, ratio = 0.8)
flrn = as_learner(ppl("targettrafo",
  graph = DirectForecaster$new(lrn("regr.rpart"), lags = 1:3, horizons = length(split$test)),
  trafo_pipeop = po("fcst.targetboxcox")
))
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)

Difference the Target Variable

Description

Differences the target variable with lag lag, producing the new target ⁠y'_t = y_t - y_{t - lag}⁠. The first lag rows are dropped during training and predictions are inverted back to the original scale. On keyed (multi-series) tasks this happens within each series. Series too short for the requested lag are dropped with a warning, and predicting a series not seen during training is an error.

Use lag = 1 to remove a trend and lag = 12 (or the seasonal period) to remove seasonality.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTargetTrafo, as well as the following:

  • lag :: integer(1)
    Lag to difference at. Default 1L.

Limitations

This PipeOp must not be placed inside a RecursiveForecaster or DirectForecaster graph and is rejected at construction. Use it inside a plain mlr3pipelines::GraphLearner via ppl("targettrafo", ...), or wrap the forecaster itself with ppl("targettrafo", ...) so all horizons are inverted together.

Quantile predictions cannot be inverted and are rejected.

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTargetTrafo -> PipeOpTargetTrafoDifference

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpTargetTrafoDifference$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpTargetTrafoDifference$new(id = "fcst.targetdiff", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.targetdiff".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpTargetTrafoDifference$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpTargetTrafoDifference$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
split = partition(task, ratio = 0.8)
flrn = as_learner(ppl("targettrafo",
  graph = DirectForecaster$new(lrn("regr.rpart"), lags = 1:3, horizons = length(split$test)),
  trafo_pipeop = po("fcst.targetdiff", lag = 1L)
))
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)

Time Series Feature Extraction

Description

Computes per-series summary features from the target variable via tsfeatures::tsfeatures() and broadcasts them as constant columns to every row of the corresponding series. For an unkeyed task the features are broadcast to every row. For a keyed task each key contributes one feature vector.

Predicting on a key that was not seen during training is an error.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc, as well as:

  • features :: character()
    Function names from the tsfeatures namespace that return numeric feature vectors. Default c("frequency", "stl_features", "entropy", "acf_features").

  • scale :: logical(1)
    If TRUE, scale each series to mean 0 and sd 1 before feature extraction. Default TRUE.

  • trim :: logical(1)
    If TRUE, trim values outside ⁠±trim_amount⁠ before feature extraction. Default FALSE.

  • trim_amount :: numeric(1)
    Trimming threshold. Default 0.1.

  • parallel :: logical(1)
    If TRUE, compute features in parallel via a future::plan(). Default FALSE.

  • multiprocess :: function
    Function from the future package used when parallel = TRUE. Default future::multisession().

  • na.action :: function
    Missing-value handler. Default stats::na.pass().

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTaskPreproc -> PipeOpFcstTsfeats

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstTsfeats$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstTsfeats$new(id = "fcst.tsfeats", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.tsfeats".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstTsfeats$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstTsfeats$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
po = po("fcst.tsfeats", features = c("entropy", "acf_features"))
out = po$train(list(task))[[1L]]
out$head()

Unite Per-Series Forecasts into One Prediction

Description

Row-binds a Multiplicity of per-series PredictionFcsts, as created downstream of po("fcst.splitkey"), into a single PredictionFcst.

The series identity is rebuilt from the multiplicity names as a factor column in the prediction's extra slot, so ⁠$key⁠, as.data.table(), and autoplot.PredictionFcst() keep working. Set key to the task's key column name to get predictions column-compatible with global forecasters such as RecursiveForecaster, which attach the original key column.

Parameters

  • key :: character(1)
    Name of the rebuilt series-identity column in the prediction's extra slot. Default "key".

Super class

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> PipeOpFcstUniteKey

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstUniteKey$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstUniteKey$new(id = "fcst.unitekey", param_vals = list())
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcst.unitekey".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstUniteKey$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstUniteKey$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
library(data.table)
dt = CJ(
  month = seq(as.Date("2024-01-01"), by = "month", length.out = 36L),
  id = factor(c("a", "b"))
)
dt[, value := rnorm(.N, mean = fifelse(id == "a", 10, 20))]
task = as_task_fcst(dt, target = "value", order = "month", key = "id", freq = "month")
graph = po("fcst.splitkey") %>>% lrn("fcst.ets") %>>% po("fcst.unitekey")
flrn = as_learner(graph)$train(task)
forecast(flrn, task, 12L)

Weighted Prediction Averaging for Forecasts

Description

Performs (weighted) averaging of forecast PredictionFcsts, mirroring mlr3pipelines::PipeOpRegrAvg but preserving the forecast prediction type, which plain regravg would drop. The output is a PredictionFcst that keeps the time index and key columns (carried in the extra slot), so ⁠$order⁠, ⁠$key⁠, autoplot.PredictionFcst(), and forecast task_type inference keep working through the ensemble.

Connect it to several PipeOpLearner outputs (classical forecast learners or RecursiveForecaster / DirectForecaster) to average their forecasts.

Parameters

The parameters are the parameters inherited from mlr3pipelines::PipeOpRegrAvg.

Super classes

mlr3pipelines::PipeOp -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpEnsemble -> mlr3pipelines::PipeOpRegrAvg -> PipeOpFcstAvg

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PipeOpFcstAvg$new()

Initializes a new instance of this Class.

Usage
PipeOpFcstAvg$new(
  innum = 0L,
  collect_multiplicity = FALSE,
  id = "fcstavg",
  param_vals = list()
)
Arguments
innum

(numeric(1))
Number of input channels. Default 0 creates a vararg channel taking an arbitrary number of inputs.

collect_multiplicity

(logical(1))
If TRUE, the single input is a Multiplicity collecting channel. Requires innum = 0. Default FALSE.

id

(character(1))
Identifier of resulting object, default "fcstavg".

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings, overwriting the hyperparameter settings that would otherwise be set during construction. Default list().

PipeOpFcstAvg$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PipeOpFcstAvg$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
graph = gunion(list(
  po("learner", lrn("fcst.auto_arima"), id = "arima"),
  po("learner", lrn("fcst.ets"), id = "ets")
)) %>>%
  po("fcstavg")
flrn = as_learner(graph)$train(task)
forecast(flrn, task, 12L)

Forecast Cross-Validation Resampling

Description

Splits data using a folds-folds (default: 5 folds) rolling window cross-validation.

Dictionary

This Resampling can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr_resamplings or with the associated sugar function rsmp(): 

mlr_resamplings$get("fcst.cv")
rsmp("fcst.cv")

Parameters

  • horizon (integer(1))
    Forecasting horizon in the test sets, i.e. number of test samples for each fold.

  • folds (integer(1))
    Number of folds.

  • step_size (integer(1))
    Step size between windows.

  • window_size (integer(1))
    Size of the rolling window. For fixed_window = TRUE, this is the exact training window size. For fixed_window = FALSE (expanding window), this is the minimum number of training observations in the first fold.

  • fixed_window (logical(1))
    Should a fixed sized window be used? If FALSE an expanding window is used.

Super class

mlr3::Resampling -> ResamplingFcstCV

Active bindings

iters

(integer(1))
Returns the number of resampling iterations, depending on the values stored in the param_set.

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

ResamplingFcstCV$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
ResamplingFcstCV$new()

ResamplingFcstCV$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
ResamplingFcstCV$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

References

Tashman LJ (2000). “Out-of-sample tests of forecasting accuracy: an analysis and review.” International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 437–450.

Bergmeir C, Hyndman RJ, Koo B (2018). “A note on the validity of cross-validation for evaluating autoregressive time series prediction.” Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 120, 70–83.

See Also

Other Resampling: mlr_resamplings_fcst.holdout

Examples

# Create a task with 20 observations
task = tsk("airpassengers")
task$filter(1:20)

# Instantiate Resampling
cv = rsmp("fcst.cv", folds = 3, fixed_window = FALSE)
cv$instantiate(task)

# Individual sets:
cv$train_set(1)
cv$test_set(1)
intersect(cv$train_set(1), cv$test_set(1))

# Internal storage:
cv$instance #  list

Forecast Holdout Resampling

Description

Splits data into a training set and a test set. Parameter ratio determines the ratio of observation going into the training set.

Dictionary

This Resampling can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr_resamplings or with the associated sugar function rsmp(): 

mlr_resamplings$get("fcst.holdout")
rsmp("fcst.holdout")

Parameters

  • ratio (numeric(1))
    Ratio of observations to put into the training set. Mutually exclusive with parameter n.

  • n (integer(1))
    Number of observations to put into the training set. If negative, the absolute value determines the number of observations in the test set. Mutually exclusive with parameter ratio.

Super class

mlr3::Resampling -> ResamplingFcstHoldout

Active bindings

iters

(integer(1))
Returns the number of resampling iterations, depending on the values stored in the param_set.

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

ResamplingFcstHoldout$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
ResamplingFcstHoldout$new()

ResamplingFcstHoldout$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
ResamplingFcstHoldout$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Other Resampling: mlr_resamplings_fcst.cv

Examples

# Create a task with 10 observations
task = tsk("airpassengers")
task$filter(1:10)

# Instantiate Resampling
holdout = rsmp("fcst.holdout", ratio = 0.5)
holdout$instantiate(task)

# Individual sets:
holdout$train_set(1)
holdout$test_set(1)

# Disjunct sets:
intersect(holdout$train_set(1), holdout$test_set(1))

# Internal storage:
holdout$instance # simple list

Air Passengers Forecast Task

Description

A forecast task for the popular datasets::AirPassengers data set. The task represents the monthly totals of international airline passengers from 1949 to 1960.

Format

R6::R6Class inheriting from TaskFcst.

Dictionary

This Task can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr_tasks or with the associated sugar function tsk(): 

mlr_tasks$get("airpassengers")
tsk("airpassengers")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Dimensions: 144x1

  • Properties: “ordered”

  • Has Missings: FALSE

  • Target: “passengers”

  • Features: -

Source

Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Revised edition. Holden-Day, San Francisco.

See Also

Other Task: TaskFcst, mlr_tasks_electricity, mlr_tasks_livestock, mlr_tasks_lynx, mlr_tasks_usaccdeaths

Daily electricity demand for Victoria, Australia Forecast Task

Description

A forecast task for the tsibbledata::vic_elec data set. The task represents a daily time series and is ordered by date.

Format

R6::R6Class inheriting from TaskFcst.

Dictionary

This Task can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr_tasks or with the associated sugar function tsk(): 

mlr_tasks$get("electricity")
tsk("electricity")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Dimensions: 1096x3

  • Properties: “ordered”

  • Has Missings: FALSE

  • Target: “demand”

  • Features: “holiday”, “temperature”

See Also

Other Task: TaskFcst, mlr_tasks_airpassengers, mlr_tasks_livestock, mlr_tasks_lynx, mlr_tasks_usaccdeaths

Australian Livestock Slaughter Forecast Task

Description

A forecast task for the tsibbledata::aus_livestock data set. The task represents a monthly time series and is ordered by month.

Format

R6::R6Class inheriting from TaskFcst.

Dictionary

This Task can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr_tasks or with the associated sugar function tsk(): 

mlr_tasks$get("livestock")
tsk("livestock")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Dimensions: 29364x3

  • Properties: “ordered”, “keys”

  • Has Missings: FALSE

  • Target: “count”

  • Features: “animal”, “state”

See Also

Other Task: TaskFcst, mlr_tasks_airpassengers, mlr_tasks_electricity, mlr_tasks_lynx, mlr_tasks_usaccdeaths

Annual Canadian Lynx Trappings Forecast Task

Description

A forecast task for the popular datasets::lynx data set. The task represents the annual numbers of lynx trappings in Canada from 1821 to 1934.

Format

R6::R6Class inheriting from TaskFcst.

Dictionary

This Task can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr_tasks or with the associated sugar function tsk(): 

mlr_tasks$get("lynx")
tsk("lynx")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Dimensions: 114x1

  • Properties: “ordered”

  • Has Missings: FALSE

  • Target: “count”

  • Features: -

Source

Brockwell PJ, Davis RA (1991). Time Series: Theory and Methods, 2nd edition. Springer, New York.

References

Campbell MJ, Walker AM (1977). “A Survey of Statistical Work on the Mackenzie River Series of Annual Canadian Lynx Trappings for the Years 1821-1934 and a New Analysis.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), 140(4), 411–431. doi:10.2307/2345277.

Becker RA, Chambers JM, Wilks AR (1988). The New S Language. Chapman and Hall/CRC, London.

See Also

Other Task: TaskFcst, mlr_tasks_airpassengers, mlr_tasks_electricity, mlr_tasks_livestock, mlr_tasks_usaccdeaths

Accidental Deaths in the US Forecast Task

Description

A forecast task for the popular datasets::USAccDeaths data set. The task represents the monthly totals of accidental deaths in the US from 1973 to 1978.

Format

R6::R6Class inheriting from TaskFcst.

Dictionary

This Task can be instantiated via the dictionary mlr_tasks or with the associated sugar function tsk(): 

mlr_tasks$get("usaccdeaths")
tsk("usaccdeaths")

Meta Information

  • Task type: “fcst”

  • Dimensions: 72x1

  • Properties: “ordered”

  • Has Missings: FALSE

  • Target: “deaths”

  • Features: -

Source

Brockwell PJ, Davis RA (1991). Time Series: Theory and Methods, 2nd edition. Springer, New York.

See Also

Other Task: TaskFcst, mlr_tasks_airpassengers, mlr_tasks_electricity, mlr_tasks_livestock, mlr_tasks_lynx

Manually Partition into Training, Test and Validation Set

Description

Creates a split of the row ids of a Task into a training and a test set, and optionally a validation set.

Usage

## S3 method for class 'TaskFcst'
partition(task, ratio = 0.67)

Arguments

task

(Task)
Task to operate on.
ratio

(numeric())
Ratio of observations to put into the training set. If a 2 element vector is provided, the first element is the ratio for the training set, the second element is the ratio for the test set. The validation set will contain the remaining observations.

Examples

task = tsk("airpassengers")
split = partition(task, ratio = 0.8)

Prediction Object for Forecasting

Description

This object wraps the predictions returned by a forecast learner (LearnerFcst, RecursiveForecaster, DirectForecaster). It subclasses mlr3::PredictionRegr, so forecasting is treated as regression: the response, se, quantiles and distr fields and all regression measures continue to work.

In addition, the prediction carries the time index (and any key columns) of the forecast horizon in its ⁠$data$extra⁠ slot. These are exposed via the ⁠$order⁠ and ⁠$key⁠ fields, lead the as.data.table() output, and are used by autoplot.PredictionFcst() to draw a forecast plot.

The task_type is kept as "regr" so that regression measures remain compatible: forecasting is scored as regression.

Super classes

mlr3::Prediction -> mlr3::PredictionRegr -> PredictionFcst

Active bindings

order

(data.table::data.table() | NULL)
The forecast time index, recovered from ⁠$data$extra⁠. A table with two columns:

  • row_id (integer()), and

  • order (Date() | POSIXct() | integer() | numeric()).

Returns NULL if no extra data is stored.

key

(data.table::data.table() | NULL)
The series identity columns of the forecast horizon, recovered from ⁠$data$extra⁠. A table with two or more columns:

  • row_id (integer()), and

  • key variable(s) (factor() | ordered()).

If there is only one key column, it is named key. Returns NULL if there are no key columns.

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

PredictionFcst$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
PredictionFcst$new(
  task = NULL,
  row_ids = task$row_ids,
  truth = task$truth(),
  response = NULL,
  se = NULL,
  quantiles = NULL,
  distr = NULL,
  weights = NULL,
  check = TRUE,
  extra = NULL,
  raw = NULL
)
Arguments
task

(TaskFcst)
Task, used to extract defaults for row_ids and truth.

row_ids

(integer())
Row ids of the predicted observations, i.e. the row ids of the test set.

truth

(numeric())
True (observed) response.

response

(numeric())
Vector of numeric response values. One element for each observation in the test set.

se

(numeric())
Numeric vector of predicted standard errors. One element for each observation in the test set.

quantiles

(matrix())
Numeric matrix of predicted quantiles. One row per observation, one column per quantile.

distr

(VectorDistribution)
VectorDistribution from package distr6 (in repository https://raphaels1.r-universe.dev).

weights

(numeric())
Vector of measure weights for each observation.

check

(logical(1))
If TRUE, performs some argument checks and predict type conversions.

extra

(list())
Named list carrying the order (time) column and any key columns of the forecast horizon. The list names are the original task column names.

raw

(any)
Raw prediction object from the upstream model. Stored as-is without validation.

PredictionFcst$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
PredictionFcst$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Package mlr3viz for some generic visualizations.

Examples

task = tsk("airpassengers")
learner = lrn("fcst.auto_arima")$train(task)
p = forecast(learner, task, h = 12)
p$predict_types
head(as.data.table(p))

Read tsf files

Description

Parses a file located at file and returns a data.table::data.table().

Usage

read_tsf(file)

Arguments

file

(character(1))
The path to the TSF file.

Value

(data.table::data.table()) with class "tsf". If the file contains a frequency or horizon, the "frequency" and "horizon" attributes are set, respectively.

References

Godahewa R, Bergmeir C, Webb GI, Hyndman RJ, Montero-Manso P (2021). “Monash time series forecasting archive.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2105.06643.

Examples

file = system.file("extdata", "m3_yearly_dataset.tsf", package = "mlr3forecast")
dt = read_tsf(file)
head(dt)

Create a Recursive Forecast Learner

Description

Function to create a RecursiveForecaster object. This is the recommended way to construct a recursive forecaster. It is a thin wrapper around RecursiveForecaster$new().

A recursive forecaster trains a single regression model and forecasts iteratively one step ahead, feeding each prediction back as a lag/rolling feature for the next step. For the direct strategy (one model per horizon) see direct_forecaster().

Usage

recursive_forecaster(
  learner,
  lags = NULL,
  id = NULL,
  param_vals = list(),
  predict_type = NULL,
  clone_graph = TRUE
)

Arguments

learner

(mlr3::Learner | mlr3pipelines::Graph | mlr3pipelines::PipeOp)
A regression learner (when lags is provided) or a graph/PipeOp.
lags

(integer() | NULL)
The lag values to use for creating lag features. If provided, learner is wrapped with po("fcst.lags", lags = lags). If NULL, learner must be a mlr3pipelines::Graph or mlr3pipelines::PipeOp.
id

(character(1) | NULL)
Identifier, default NULL (auto-generated).
param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings.
predict_type

(character(1) | NULL)
The predict type, default NULL.
clone_graph

(logical(1))
Whether to clone the graph, default TRUE.

Value

RecursiveForecaster.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)

task = tsk("airpassengers")
split = partition(task, ratio = 0.8)

# simple: wrap a regression learner with lag features
flrn = recursive_forecaster(lrn("regr.rpart"), lags = 1:3)
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)

# graph: custom preprocessing pipeline
graph = po("fcst.lags", lags = 1:3) %>>% lrn("regr.rpart")
flrn = recursive_forecaster(graph)

Recursive Forecast Learner

Description

A mlr3::Learner for iterative one-step-ahead forecasting: a single model is fit, then applied recursively, feeding each prediction back as a lag/rolling feature for the next step.

Can be constructed in two ways:

  • Simple: RecursiveForecaster$new(learner, lags = 1:3) – internally builds po("fcst.lags", lags = lags) %>>% learner.

  • Graph: RecursiveForecaster$new(graph) – takes an arbitrary mlr3pipelines::Graph or mlr3pipelines::PipeOp.

Target transformations

A target transformation (e.g. mlr_pipeops_fcst.targetdiff, mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTargetMutate) must wrap the forecaster, not be placed inside its graph. Wrap it with mlr3pipelines::ppl("targettrafo") so the whole series is transformed once up front, the recursion runs entirely on the transformed scale, and predictions are inverted once at the end: 

flrn = as_learner(ppl("targettrafo",
  graph = RecursiveForecaster$new(lrn("regr.rpart"), lags = 1:12),
  trafo_pipeop = po("fcst.targetdiff", lag = 1L)
))
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)  # predictions are on the original scale

Placing a mlr3pipelines::PipeOpTargetTrafo inside the graph is not supported and is rejected at construction.

Prediction uncertainty

Only the point forecast is fed back between steps, so se/distr uncertainty does not accumulate across horizons and intervals are too narrow for h > 1. For calibrated multi-step intervals, prefer DirectForecaster.

Super class

mlr3::Learner -> RecursiveForecaster

Active bindings

learner

(mlr3::Learner)
The base regression learner.

native_model

(any)
The fitted model.

lags

(integer() | NULL)
The lags used, or NULL if no PipeOpFcstLags is in the graph.

param_set

(paradox::ParamSet)
Set of hyperparameters.

marshaled

(logical(1))
Whether the learner's model is currently in marshaled form.

predict_type

(character(1))
Stores the currently active predict type.

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

RecursiveForecaster$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class.

Usage
RecursiveForecaster$new(
  learner,
  lags = NULL,
  id = NULL,
  param_vals = list(),
  predict_type = NULL,
  clone_graph = TRUE
)
Arguments
learner

(mlr3::Learner | mlr3pipelines::Graph | mlr3pipelines::PipeOp)
A regression learner (when lags is provided) or a graph/PipeOp.

lags

(integer() | NULL)
The lag values to use for creating lag features. If provided, learner is wrapped with po("fcst.lags", lags = lags). If NULL, learner must be a mlr3pipelines::Graph or mlr3pipelines::PipeOp.

id

(character(1) | NULL)
Identifier, default NULL (auto-generated).

param_vals

(named list())
List of hyperparameter settings.

predict_type

(character(1) | NULL)
The predict type, default NULL.

clone_graph

(logical(1))
Whether to clone the graph, default TRUE.

RecursiveForecaster$print()

Printer.

Usage
RecursiveForecaster$print(...)
Arguments
...

(ignored).

RecursiveForecaster$marshal()

Marshal the learner's model.

Usage
RecursiveForecaster$marshal(...)
Arguments
...

(any)
Additional arguments passed to mlr3::marshal_model().

RecursiveForecaster$unmarshal()

Unmarshal the learner's model.

Usage
RecursiveForecaster$unmarshal(...)
Arguments
...

(any)
Additional arguments passed to mlr3::unmarshal_model().

RecursiveForecaster$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
RecursiveForecaster$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)

task = tsk("airpassengers")
flrn = RecursiveForecaster$new(lrn("regr.rpart"), lags = 1:3)
split = partition(task, ratio = 0.8)
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)

# graph: custom preprocessing pipeline
graph = po("fcst.lags", lags = 1:3) %>>% lrn("regr.rpart")
flrn = RecursiveForecaster$new(graph)
flrn$train(task, split$train)
flrn$predict(task, split$test)

Select Forecast Lag Features

Description

mlr3pipelines::Selector that selects lag features created by PipeOpFcstLags. Matches features named ⁠{target}_lag_{i}⁠ where {target} is the task's target variable.

Usage

selector_fcst_lags()

Value

function: A mlr3pipelines::Selector function.

See Also

Other Selectors: selector_fcst_rolling()

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
pop = po("fcst.lags", lags = 1:3)
new_task = pop$train(list(task))[[1L]]
selector_fcst_lags()(new_task)

Select Forecast Rolling Features

Description

mlr3pipelines::Selector that selects rolling-window features created by PipeOpFcstRolling. Matches features named ⁠{target}_roll_{fun}_{size}⁠ where {target} is the task's target variable and {fun} is one of the aggregation functions supported by PipeOpFcstRolling.

Usage

selector_fcst_rolling()

Value

function: A mlr3pipelines::Selector function.

See Also

Other Selectors: selector_fcst_lags()

Examples

library(mlr3pipelines)
task = tsk("airpassengers")
pop = po("fcst.rolling", funs = c("mean", "sd"), window_sizes = c(3L, 12L))
new_task = pop$train(list(task))[[1L]]
selector_fcst_rolling()(new_task)

Forecast Task

Description

This task specializes mlr3::Task, mlr3::TaskSupervised and mlr3::TaskRegr for forecasting problems. The target column is assumed to be numeric. The task_type is set to "fcst".

It is recommended to use as_task_fcst() for construction. Predefined tasks are stored in the dictionary mlr3::mlr_tasks.

Series identity and keys

A task may have one or more key columns whose combination identifies each series. The key role drives all per-series operations: target lags and rolling windows (PipeOpFcstLags, PipeOpFcstRolling) are computed within each series, and the future forecast grid is built per series.

Key columns are also features by default, which lets a global model specialize per series. Drop a key's feature role while keeping the grouping when it carries no signal beyond identifying the series: 

task$set_col_roles("series_id", remove_from = "feature")

For a high-cardinality key, encode it inside the learner graph (e.g. po("encodeimpact") or po("encodelmer")) rather than passing the raw factor to the model.

Super classes

mlr3::Task -> mlr3::TaskSupervised -> mlr3::TaskRegr -> TaskFcst

Active bindings

freq

(character(1) | numeric(1) | NULL)
The frequency of the time series.

properties

(character())
Set of task properties. Possible properties are stored in mlr_reflections$task_properties. The following properties are currently standardized and understood by tasks in mlr3:

  • "strata": The task is resampled using one or more stratification variables (role "stratum").

  • "groups": The task comes with grouping/blocking information (role "group").

  • "weights_learner": The task comes with observation weights for the learner (role "weights_learner").

  • "weights_measure": The task comes with observation weights for the measure (role "weights_measure").

  • "offset": The task comes with offset information (role "offset").

  • "ordered": The task has columns which define the row order (role "order").

  • "keys": The task has columns which define the time series "key".

Note that above listed properties are calculated from the ⁠$col_roles⁠ and may not be set explicitly.

order

(data.table::data.table())
A table with two columns:

  • row_id (integer()), and

  • order (Date() | POSIXct() | integer() | numeric()).

key

(data.table::data.table() | NULL)
If the task has a column with designated role "key", a table with two or more columns:

  • row_id (integer()), and

  • key variable(s) (factor() | ordered()).

If there is only one key column, it will be named as key. Returns NULL if there are no key columns.

Methods

Public methods

Inherited methods

TaskFcst$new()

Creates a new instance of this R6 class. The function as_task_fcst() provides an alternative way to construct forecast tasks.

Usage
TaskFcst$new(
  id,
  backend,
  target,
  order,
  key = character(),
  freq = NULL,
  label = NA_character_,
  extra_args = list()
)
Arguments
id

(character(1))
Identifier for the new instance.

backend

(mlr3::DataBackend)
Either a mlr3::DataBackend, or any object which is convertible to a mlr3::DataBackend with as_data_backend(). E.g., a data.frame() will be converted to a mlr3::DataBackendDataTable.

target

(character(1))
Name of the target column.

order

(character(1))
Name of the order column.

key

(character())
Name of the key column.

freq

(character(1) | numeric(1) | NULL)
Frequency of the time series. Either a positive number or a seq()-compatible string, e.g.: "1 month", "day", "3 months", "1 hour", "week".

label

(character(1))
Label for the new instance.

extra_args

(named list())
Named list of constructor arguments, required for converting task types via mlr3::convert_task().

TaskFcst$view()

Returns a slice of the data from the mlr3::DataBackend as a data.table::data.table(). Rows default to observations with role "use", and columns default to features with roles "target", "order", "key" or "feature". If rows or cols are specified which do not exist in the mlr3::DataBackend, an exception is raised.

Rows and columns are returned in the order specified via the arguments rows and cols. If rows is NULL, rows are returned in the order of task$row_ids. If cols is NULL, the column order defaults to c(task$target_names, task$feature_names, task$col_roles$key, task$col_roles$order). Note that it is recommended to not rely on the order of columns, and instead always address columns with their respective column name.

Usage
TaskFcst$view(rows = NULL, cols = NULL, ordered = FALSE)
Arguments
rows

(positive integer() | NULL)
Vector or row indices.

cols

(character() | NULL)
Vector of column names.

ordered

(logical(1))
If TRUE, data is ordered according to the columns with column role "order" and "key".

Returns

A data.table::data.table().

TaskFcst$print()

Printer.

Usage
TaskFcst$print(...)
Arguments
...

(ignored).

TaskFcst$clone()

The objects of this class are cloneable with this method.

Usage
TaskFcst$clone(deep = FALSE)
Arguments
deep

Whether to make a deep clone.

See Also

Other Task: mlr_tasks_airpassengers, mlr_tasks_electricity, mlr_tasks_livestock, mlr_tasks_lynx, mlr_tasks_usaccdeaths

Examples

library(data.table)
airpassengers = tsbox::ts_dt(AirPassengers)
setnames(airpassengers, c("month", "passengers"))
task = as_task_fcst(airpassengers, target = "passengers", order = "month", freq = "month")
task$task_type
task$formula()
task$truth()