| Title: | Bayesian and Likelihood Analysis of Dynamic Linear Models |
|---|---|
| Description: | Provides routines for Maximum likelihood, Kalman filtering and smoothing, and Bayesian analysis of Normal linear State Space models, also known as Dynamic Linear Models. |
| Authors: | Giovanni Petris [aut, cre], Wally Gilks [ctb] (Author of original C code for ARMS) |
| Maintainer: | Giovanni Petris <[email protected]> |
| License: | GPL (>= 2) |
| Version: | 1.1-6.1 |
| Built: | 2024-12-21 06:27:18 UTC |
| Source: | CRAN |
Generates a sequence of random variables using ARMS. For multivariate densities, ARMS is used along randomly selected straight lines through the current point.
arms(y.start, myldens, indFunc, n.sample, ...)arms(y.start, myldens, indFunc, n.sample, ...)
y.start |
initial point |
myldens |
univariate or multivariate log target density |
indFunc |
indicator function of the convex support of the target density |
n.sample |
desired sample size |
... |
parameters passed to |
Strictly speaking, the support of the target density must be a bounded convex set.
When this is not the case, the following tricks usually work.
If the support is not bounded, restrict it to a bounded set having probability
practically one.
A workaround, if the support is not convex, is to consider the convex set
generated by the support
and define myldens to return log(.Machine$double.xmin) outside
the true support (see the last example.)
The next point is generated along a randomly selected line through the current point using arms.
Make sure the value returned by myldens is never smaller than
log(.Machine$double.xmin), to avoid divisions by zero.
An n.sample by length(y.start) matrix, whose rows are the
sampled points.
The function is based on original C code by W. Gilks for the univariate case.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Gilks, W.R., Best, N.G. and Tan, K.K.C. (1995) Adaptive rejection Metropolis sampling within Gibbs sampling (Corr: 97V46 p541-542 with Neal, R.M.), Applied Statistics 44:455–472.
#### ==> Warning: running the examples may take a few minutes! <== #### set.seed(4521222) ### Univariate densities ## Unif(-r,r) y <- arms(runif(1,-1,1), function(x,r) 1, function(x,r) (x>-r)*(x<r), 5000, r=2) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Unif(-r,r); r=2") ## Normal(mean,1) norldens <- function(x,mean) -(x-mean)^2/2 y <- arms(runif(1,3,17), norldens, function(x,mean) ((x-mean)>-7)*((x-mean)<7), 5000, mean=10) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Gaussian(m,1); m=10") curve(dnorm(x,mean=10),3,17,add=TRUE) ## Exponential(1) y <- arms(5, function(x) -x, function(x) (x>0)*(x<70), 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Exponential(1)") curve(exp(-x),0,8,add=TRUE) ## Gamma(4.5,1) y <- arms(runif(1,1e-4,20), function(x) 3.5*log(x)-x, function(x) (x>1e-4)*(x<20), 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Gamma(4.5,1)") curve(dgamma(x,shape=4.5,scale=1),1e-4,20,add=TRUE) ## Gamma(0.5,1) (this one is not log-concave) y <- arms(runif(1,1e-8,10), function(x) -0.5*log(x)-x, function(x) (x>1e-8)*(x<10), 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Gamma(0.5,1)") curve(dgamma(x,shape=0.5,scale=1),1e-8,10,add=TRUE) ## Beta(.2,.2) (this one neither) y <- arms(runif(1), function(x) (0.2-1)*log(x)+(0.2-1)*log(1-x), function(x) (x>1e-5)*(x<1-1e-5), 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Beta(0.2,0.2)") curve(dbeta(x,0.2,0.2),1e-5,1-1e-5,add=TRUE) ## Triangular y <- arms(runif(1,-1,1), function(x) log(1-abs(x)), function(x) abs(x)<1, 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,ylim=c(0,1),main="Triangular") curve(1-abs(x),-1,1,add=TRUE) ## Multimodal examples (Mixture of normals) lmixnorm <- function(x,weights,means,sds) { log(crossprod(weights, exp(-0.5*((x-means)/sds)^2 - log(sds)))) } y <- arms(0, lmixnorm, function(x,...) (x>(-100))*(x<100), 5000, weights=c(1,3,2), means=c(-10,0,10), sds=c(1.5,3,1.5)) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Mixture of Normals") curve(colSums(c(1,3,2)/6*dnorm(matrix(x,3,length(x),byrow=TRUE),c(-10,0,10),c(1.5,3,1.5))), par("usr")[1], par("usr")[2], add=TRUE) ### Bivariate densities ## Bivariate standard normal y <- arms(c(0,2), function(x) -crossprod(x)/2, function(x) (min(x)>-5)*(max(x)<5), 500) plot(y, main="Bivariate standard normal", asp=1) ## Uniform in the unit square y <- arms(c(0.2,.6), function(x) 1, function(x) (min(x)>0)*(max(x)<1), 500) plot(y, main="Uniform in the unit square", asp=1) polygon(c(0,1,1,0),c(0,0,1,1)) ## Uniform in the circle of radius r y <- arms(c(0.2,0), function(x,...) 1, function(x,r2) sum(x^2)<r2, 500, r2=2^2) plot(y, main="Uniform in the circle of radius r; r=2", asp=1) curve(-sqrt(4-x^2), -2, 2, add=TRUE) curve(sqrt(4-x^2), -2, 2, add=TRUE) ## Uniform on the simplex simp <- function(x) if ( any(x<0) || (sum(x)>1) ) 0 else 1 y <- arms(c(0.2,0.2), function(x) 1, simp, 500) plot(y, xlim=c(0,1), ylim=c(0,1), main="Uniform in the simplex", asp=1) polygon(c(0,1,0), c(0,0,1)) ## A bimodal distribution (mixture of normals) bimodal <- function(x) { log(prod(dnorm(x,mean=3))+prod(dnorm(x,mean=-3))) } y <- arms(c(-2,2), bimodal, function(x) all(x>(-10))*all(x<(10)), 500) plot(y, main="Mixture of bivariate Normals", asp=1) ## A bivariate distribution with non-convex support support <- function(x) { return(as.numeric( -1 < x[2] && x[2] < 1 && -2 < x[1] && ( x[1] < 1 || crossprod(x-c(1,0)) < 1 ) ) ) } Min.log <- log(.Machine$double.xmin) + 10 logf <- function(x) { if ( x[1] < 0 ) return(log(1/4)) else if (crossprod(x-c(1,0)) < 1 ) return(log(1/pi)) return(Min.log) } x <- as.matrix(expand.grid(seq(-2.2,2.2,length=40),seq(-1.1,1.1,length=40))) y <- sapply(1:nrow(x), function(i) support(x[i,])) plot(x,type='n',asp=1) points(x[y==1,],pch=1,cex=1,col='green') z <- arms(c(0,0), logf, support, 1000) points(z,pch=20,cex=0.5,col='blue') polygon(c(-2,0,0,-2),c(-1,-1,1,1)) curve(-sqrt(1-(x-1)^2),0,2,add=TRUE) curve(sqrt(1-(x-1)^2),0,2,add=TRUE) sum( z[,1] < 0 ) # sampled points in the square sum( apply(t(z)-c(1,0),2,crossprod) < 1 ) # sampled points in the circle#### ==> Warning: running the examples may take a few minutes! <== #### set.seed(4521222) ### Univariate densities ## Unif(-r,r) y <- arms(runif(1,-1,1), function(x,r) 1, function(x,r) (x>-r)*(x<r), 5000, r=2) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Unif(-r,r); r=2") ## Normal(mean,1) norldens <- function(x,mean) -(x-mean)^2/2 y <- arms(runif(1,3,17), norldens, function(x,mean) ((x-mean)>-7)*((x-mean)<7), 5000, mean=10) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Gaussian(m,1); m=10") curve(dnorm(x,mean=10),3,17,add=TRUE) ## Exponential(1) y <- arms(5, function(x) -x, function(x) (x>0)*(x<70), 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Exponential(1)") curve(exp(-x),0,8,add=TRUE) ## Gamma(4.5,1) y <- arms(runif(1,1e-4,20), function(x) 3.5*log(x)-x, function(x) (x>1e-4)*(x<20), 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Gamma(4.5,1)") curve(dgamma(x,shape=4.5,scale=1),1e-4,20,add=TRUE) ## Gamma(0.5,1) (this one is not log-concave) y <- arms(runif(1,1e-8,10), function(x) -0.5*log(x)-x, function(x) (x>1e-8)*(x<10), 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Gamma(0.5,1)") curve(dgamma(x,shape=0.5,scale=1),1e-8,10,add=TRUE) ## Beta(.2,.2) (this one neither) y <- arms(runif(1), function(x) (0.2-1)*log(x)+(0.2-1)*log(1-x), function(x) (x>1e-5)*(x<1-1e-5), 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Beta(0.2,0.2)") curve(dbeta(x,0.2,0.2),1e-5,1-1e-5,add=TRUE) ## Triangular y <- arms(runif(1,-1,1), function(x) log(1-abs(x)), function(x) abs(x)<1, 5000) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,ylim=c(0,1),main="Triangular") curve(1-abs(x),-1,1,add=TRUE) ## Multimodal examples (Mixture of normals) lmixnorm <- function(x,weights,means,sds) { log(crossprod(weights, exp(-0.5*((x-means)/sds)^2 - log(sds)))) } y <- arms(0, lmixnorm, function(x,...) (x>(-100))*(x<100), 5000, weights=c(1,3,2), means=c(-10,0,10), sds=c(1.5,3,1.5)) summary(y); hist(y,prob=TRUE,main="Mixture of Normals") curve(colSums(c(1,3,2)/6*dnorm(matrix(x,3,length(x),byrow=TRUE),c(-10,0,10),c(1.5,3,1.5))), par("usr")[1], par("usr")[2], add=TRUE) ### Bivariate densities ## Bivariate standard normal y <- arms(c(0,2), function(x) -crossprod(x)/2, function(x) (min(x)>-5)*(max(x)<5), 500) plot(y, main="Bivariate standard normal", asp=1) ## Uniform in the unit square y <- arms(c(0.2,.6), function(x) 1, function(x) (min(x)>0)*(max(x)<1), 500) plot(y, main="Uniform in the unit square", asp=1) polygon(c(0,1,1,0),c(0,0,1,1)) ## Uniform in the circle of radius r y <- arms(c(0.2,0), function(x,...) 1, function(x,r2) sum(x^2)<r2, 500, r2=2^2) plot(y, main="Uniform in the circle of radius r; r=2", asp=1) curve(-sqrt(4-x^2), -2, 2, add=TRUE) curve(sqrt(4-x^2), -2, 2, add=TRUE) ## Uniform on the simplex simp <- function(x) if ( any(x<0) || (sum(x)>1) ) 0 else 1 y <- arms(c(0.2,0.2), function(x) 1, simp, 500) plot(y, xlim=c(0,1), ylim=c(0,1), main="Uniform in the simplex", asp=1) polygon(c(0,1,0), c(0,0,1)) ## A bimodal distribution (mixture of normals) bimodal <- function(x) { log(prod(dnorm(x,mean=3))+prod(dnorm(x,mean=-3))) } y <- arms(c(-2,2), bimodal, function(x) all(x>(-10))*all(x<(10)), 500) plot(y, main="Mixture of bivariate Normals", asp=1) ## A bivariate distribution with non-convex support support <- function(x) { return(as.numeric( -1 < x[2] && x[2] < 1 && -2 < x[1] && ( x[1] < 1 || crossprod(x-c(1,0)) < 1 ) ) ) } Min.log <- log(.Machine$double.xmin) + 10 logf <- function(x) { if ( x[1] < 0 ) return(log(1/4)) else if (crossprod(x-c(1,0)) < 1 ) return(log(1/pi)) return(Min.log) } x <- as.matrix(expand.grid(seq(-2.2,2.2,length=40),seq(-1.1,1.1,length=40))) y <- sapply(1:nrow(x), function(i) support(x[i,])) plot(x,type='n',asp=1) points(x[y==1,],pch=1,cex=1,col='green') z <- arms(c(0,0), logf, support, 1000) points(z,pch=20,cex=0.5,col='blue') polygon(c(-2,0,0,-2),c(-1,-1,1,1)) curve(-sqrt(1-(x-1)^2),0,2,add=TRUE) curve(sqrt(1-(x-1)^2),0,2,add=TRUE) sum( z[,1] < 0 ) # sampled points in the square sum( apply(t(z)-c(1,0),2,crossprod) < 1 ) # sampled points in the circle
The function maps a vector of length p to the vector of autoregressive coefficients of a stationary AR(p) process. It can be used to parametrize a stationary AR(p) process
ARtransPars(raw)ARtransPars(raw)
raw |
a vector of length p |
The function first maps each element of raw to (0,1) using
tanh. The numbers obtained are treated as the first partial
autocorrelations of a stationary AR(p) process and the vector of the
corresponding autoregressive coefficients is computed and returned.
The vector of autoregressive coefficients of a stationary AR(p) process
corresponding to the parameters in raw.
Giovanni Petris, [email protected]
Jones, 1987. Randomly choosing parameters from the stationarity and invertibility region of autoregressive-moving average models. Applied Statistics, 36.
(ar <- ARtransPars(rnorm(5))) all( Mod(polyroot(c(1,-ar))) > 1 ) # TRUE(ar <- ARtransPars(rnorm(5))) all( Mod(polyroot(c(1,-ar))) > 1 ) # TRUE
The function builds a block diagonal matrix.
bdiag(...)bdiag(...)
... |
individual matrices, or a list of matrices. |
A matrix obtained by combining the arguments.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
bdiag(matrix(1:4,2,2),diag(3)) bdiag(matrix(1:6,3,2),matrix(11:16,2,3))bdiag(matrix(1:4,2,2),diag(3)) bdiag(matrix(1:6,3,2),matrix(11:16,2,3))
Finds the boundaries of a bounded convex set along a specified
straight line, using a bisection approach. It is mainly intended for
use within arms.
convex.bounds(x, dir, indFunc, ..., tol=1e-07)convex.bounds(x, dir, indFunc, ..., tol=1e-07)
x |
a point within the set |
dir |
a vector specifying a direction |
indFunc |
indicator function of the set |
... |
parameters passed to |
tol |
tolerance |
Uses a bisection algorithm along a line having parametric representation
x + t * dir.
A vector ans of length two. The boundaries of the set are
x + ans[1] * dir and x + ans[2] * dir.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
## boundaries of a unit circle convex.bounds(c(0,0), c(1,1), indFunc=function(x) crossprod(x)<1)## boundaries of a unit circle convex.bounds(c(0,0), c(1,1), indFunc=function(x) crossprod(x)<1)
The function dlm is used to create Dynamic Linear Model objects.
as.dlm and is.dlm coerce an object to a Dynamic Linear
Model object and test whether an object is a Dynamic Linear Model.
dlm(...) as.dlm(obj) is.dlm(obj)dlm(...) as.dlm(obj) is.dlm(obj)
... |
list with named elements |
obj |
an arbitrary R object. |
The function dlm is used to create Dynamic Linear Model
objects. These are lists with the named elements described above and
with class of "dlm".
Class "dlm" has a number of methods. In particular, consistent
DLM can be added together to produce another DLM.
For dlm, an object of class "dlm".
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
West and Harrison, Bayesian forecasting and
dynamic models (2nd ed.), Springer (1997).
dlmModReg, dlmModPoly,
dlmModARMA, dlmModSeas, to create
particular objects of class "dlm".
## Linear regression as a DLM x <- matrix(rnorm(10),nc=2) mod <- dlmModReg(x) is.dlm(mod) ## Adding dlm's dlmModPoly() + dlmModSeas(4) # linear trend plus quarterly seasonal component## Linear regression as a DLM x <- matrix(rnorm(10),nc=2) mod <- dlmModReg(x) is.dlm(mod) ## Adding dlm's dlmModPoly() + dlmModSeas(4) # linear trend plus quarterly seasonal component
The function simulates one draw from the posterior distribution of the state vectors.
dlmBSample(modFilt)dlmBSample(modFilt)
modFilt |
a list, typically the ouptut from |
The calculations are based on singular value decomposition.
The function returns a draw from the posterior distribution
of the state vectors. If m is a time series then the returned
value is a time series with the same tsp, otherwise it is
a matrix or vector.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
West and Harrison, Bayesian forecasting and
dynamic models (2nd ed.), Springer (1997).
See also dlmFilter
nileMod <- dlmModPoly(1, dV = 15099.8, dW = 1468.4) nileFilt <- dlmFilter(Nile, nileMod) nileSmooth <- dlmSmooth(nileFilt) # estimated "true" level plot(cbind(Nile, nileSmooth$s[-1]), plot.type = "s", col = c("black", "red"), ylab = "Level", main = "Nile river", lwd = c(2, 2)) for (i in 1:10) # 10 simulated "true" levels lines(dlmBSample(nileFilt[-1]), lty=2)nileMod <- dlmModPoly(1, dV = 15099.8, dW = 1468.4) nileFilt <- dlmFilter(Nile, nileMod) nileSmooth <- dlmSmooth(nileFilt) # estimated "true" level plot(cbind(Nile, nileSmooth$s[-1]), plot.type = "s", col = c("black", "red"), ylab = "Level", main = "Nile river", lwd = c(2, 2)) for (i in 1:10) # 10 simulated "true" levels lines(dlmBSample(nileFilt[-1]), lty=2)
The functions applies Kalman filter to compute filtered
values of the state vectors, together with their
variance/covariance matrices. By default the function returns an object
of class "dlmFiltered". Methods for residuals and tsdiag
for objects of class "dlmFiltered" exist.
dlmFilter(y, mod, debug = FALSE, simplify = FALSE)dlmFilter(y, mod, debug = FALSE, simplify = FALSE)
y |
the data. |
mod |
an object of class |
debug |
if |
simplify |
should the data be included in the output? |
The calculations are based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the relevant matrices. Variance matrices are returned in terms of their SVD.
Missing values are allowed in y.
A list with the components described below. If simplify is
FALSE, the returned list has class "dlmFiltered".
y |
The input data, coerced to a matrix. This is present only if
|
mod |
The argument |
m |
Time series (or matrix) of filtered values of the state vectors. The series starts one time unit before the first observation. |
U.C |
See below. |
D.C |
Together with |
a |
Time series (or matrix) of predicted values of the state vectors given the observations up and including the previous time unit. |
U.R |
See below. |
D.R |
Together with |
f |
Time series (or matrix) of one-step-ahead forecast of the observations. |
The observation variance V in mod must be nonsingular.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Zhang, Y. and Li, X.R., Fixed-interval smoothing algorithm
based on singular value decomposition, Proceedings of the 1996
IEEE International Conference on Control Applications.
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with R,
Springer (2009).
See dlm for a description of dlm objects,
dlmSvd2var to obtain a variance matrix from its SVD,
dlmMLE for maximum likelihood estimation,
dlmSmooth for Kalman smoothing, and
dlmBSample for drawing from the posterior distribution
of the state vectors.
nileBuild <- function(par) { dlmModPoly(1, dV = exp(par[1]), dW = exp(par[2])) } nileMLE <- dlmMLE(Nile, rep(0,2), nileBuild); nileMLE$conv nileMod <- nileBuild(nileMLE$par) V(nileMod) W(nileMod) nileFilt <- dlmFilter(Nile, nileMod) nileSmooth <- dlmSmooth(nileFilt) plot(cbind(Nile, nileFilt$m[-1], nileSmooth$s[-1]), plot.type='s', col=c("black","red","blue"), ylab="Level", main="Nile river", lwd=c(1,2,2))nileBuild <- function(par) { dlmModPoly(1, dV = exp(par[1]), dW = exp(par[2])) } nileMLE <- dlmMLE(Nile, rep(0,2), nileBuild); nileMLE$conv nileMod <- nileBuild(nileMLE$par) V(nileMod) W(nileMod) nileFilt <- dlmFilter(Nile, nileMod) nileSmooth <- dlmSmooth(nileFilt) plot(cbind(Nile, nileFilt$m[-1], nileSmooth$s[-1]), plot.type='s', col=c("black","red","blue"), ylab="Level", main="Nile river", lwd=c(1,2,2))
The function evaluates the expected value and variance of future observations and system states. It can also generate a sample from the distribution of future observations and system states.
dlmForecast(mod, nAhead = 1, method = c("plain", "svd"), sampleNew = FALSE)dlmForecast(mod, nAhead = 1, method = c("plain", "svd"), sampleNew = FALSE)
mod |
an object of class |
nAhead |
number of steps ahead for which a forecast is requested. |
method |
|
sampleNew |
if |
A list with components
a
|
matrix of expected values of future states |
R
|
list of variances of future states |
f
|
matrix of expected values of future observations |
Q
|
list of variances of future observations |
newStates
|
list of matrices containing the simulated future values |
| of the states. Each component of the list corresponds | |
| to one simulation. | |
newObs
|
same as newStates, but for the observations.
|
The last two components are not present if sampleNew=FALSE.
The function is currently entirely written in R and is not particularly fast. Currently, only constant models are allowed.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
## Comparing theoretical prediction intervals with sample quantiles set.seed(353) n <- 20; m <- 1; p <- 5 mod <- dlmModPoly() + dlmModSeas(4, dV=0) W(mod) <- rwishart(2*p,p) * 1e-1 m0(mod) <- rnorm(p, sd=5) C0(mod) <- diag(p) * 1e-1 new <- 100 fore <- dlmForecast(mod, nAhead=n, sampleNew=new) ciTheory <- (outer(sapply(fore$Q, FUN=function(x) sqrt(diag(x))), qnorm(c(0.1,0.9))) + as.vector(t(fore$f))) ciSample <- t(apply(array(unlist(fore$newObs), dim=c(n,m,new))[,1,], 1, FUN=function(x) quantile(x, c(0.1,0.9)))) plot.ts(cbind(ciTheory,fore$f[,1]),plot.type="s", col=c("red","red","green"),ylab="y") for (j in 1:2) lines(ciSample[,j], col="blue") legend(2,-40,legend=c("forecast mean", "theoretical bounds", "Monte Carlo bounds"), col=c("green","red","blue"), lty=1, bty="n")## Comparing theoretical prediction intervals with sample quantiles set.seed(353) n <- 20; m <- 1; p <- 5 mod <- dlmModPoly() + dlmModSeas(4, dV=0) W(mod) <- rwishart(2*p,p) * 1e-1 m0(mod) <- rnorm(p, sd=5) C0(mod) <- diag(p) * 1e-1 new <- 100 fore <- dlmForecast(mod, nAhead=n, sampleNew=new) ciTheory <- (outer(sapply(fore$Q, FUN=function(x) sqrt(diag(x))), qnorm(c(0.1,0.9))) + as.vector(t(fore$f))) ciSample <- t(apply(array(unlist(fore$newObs), dim=c(n,m,new))[,1,], 1, FUN=function(x) quantile(x, c(0.1,0.9)))) plot.ts(cbind(ciTheory,fore$f[,1]),plot.type="s", col=c("red","red","green"),ylab="y") for (j in 1:2) lines(ciSample[,j], col="blue") legend(2,-40,legend=c("forecast mean", "theoretical bounds", "Monte Carlo bounds"), col=c("green","red","blue"), lty=1, bty="n")
The function implements a Gibbs sampler for a univariate DLM having one or more unknown variances in its specification.
dlmGibbsDIG(y, mod, a.y, b.y, a.theta, b.theta, shape.y, rate.y, shape.theta, rate.theta, n.sample = 1, thin = 0, ind, save.states = TRUE, progressBar = interactive())dlmGibbsDIG(y, mod, a.y, b.y, a.theta, b.theta, shape.y, rate.y, shape.theta, rate.theta, n.sample = 1, thin = 0, ind, save.states = TRUE, progressBar = interactive())
y |
data vector or univariate time series |
mod |
a dlm for univariate observations |
a.y |
prior mean of observation precision |
b.y |
prior variance of observation precision |
a.theta |
prior mean of system precisions (recycled, if needed) |
b.theta |
prior variance of system precisions (recycled, if needed) |
shape.y |
shape parameter of the prior of observation precision |
rate.y |
rate parameter of the prior of observation precision |
shape.theta |
shape parameter of the prior of system precisions (recycled, if needed) |
rate.theta |
rate parameter of the prior of system precisions (recycled, if needed) |
n.sample |
requested number of Gibbs iterations |
thin |
discard |
ind |
indicator of the system variances that need to be estimated |
save.states |
should the simulated states be included in the output? |
progressBar |
should a text progress bar be displayed during execution? |
The d-inverse-gamma model is a constant univariate DLM with unknown
observation variance, diagonal system variance with unknown diagonal
entries. Some of these entries may be known, in which case they are
typically zero. Independent inverse gamma priors are assumed for the
unknown variances. These can be specified be mean and variance or,
alternatively, by shape and rate. Recycling is applied for the prior
parameters of unknown system variances. The argument ind can
be used to specify the index of the unknown system variances, in case
some of the diagonal elements of W are known. The unobservable
states are generated in the Gibbs sampler and are returned if
save.states = TRUE. For more details on the model and usage
examples, see the package vignette.
The function returns a list of simulated values.
dV |
simulated values of the observation variance. |
dW |
simulated values of the unknown diagonal elements of the system variance. |
theta |
simulated values of the state vectors. |
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
## See the package vignette for an example## See the package vignette for an example
Function that computes the log likelihood of a state space model.
dlmLL(y, mod, debug=FALSE)dlmLL(y, mod, debug=FALSE)
y |
a vector, matrix, or time series of data. |
mod |
an object of class |
debug |
if |
The calculations are based on singular value decomposition.
Missing values are allowed in y.
The function returns the negative of the loglikelihood.
The observation variance V in mod must be nonsingular.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Durbin and Koopman, Time series analysis by state space methods, Oxford University Press, 2001.
dlmMLE, dlmFilter for the definition of
the equations of the model.
##---- See the examples for dlmMLE ----##---- See the examples for dlmMLE ----
The function returns the MLE of unknown parameters in the specification of a state space model.
dlmMLE(y, parm, build, method = "L-BFGS-B", ..., debug = FALSE)dlmMLE(y, parm, build, method = "L-BFGS-B", ..., debug = FALSE)
y |
a vector, matrix, or time series of data. |
parm |
vector of initial values - for the optimization routine - of the unknown parameters. |
build |
a function that takes a vector of the same length as
|
method |
passed to |
... |
additional arguments passed to |
debug |
if |
The evaluation of the loglikelihood is done by dlmLL.
For the optimization, optim is called. It is possible for the
model to depend on additional parameters, other than those in
parm, passed to build via the ... argument.
The function dlmMLE returns the value returned by optim.
The build argument must return a dlm with nonsingular
observation variance V.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
data(NelPlo) ### multivariate local level -- seemingly unrelated time series buildSu <- function(x) { Vsd <- exp(x[1:2]) Vcorr <- tanh(x[3]) V <- Vsd %o% Vsd V[1,2] <- V[2,1] <- V[1,2] * Vcorr Wsd <- exp(x[4:5]) Wcorr <- tanh(x[6]) W <- Wsd %o% Wsd W[1,2] <- W[2,1] <- W[1,2] * Wcorr return(list( m0 = rep(0,2), C0 = 1e7 * diag(2), FF = diag(2), GG = diag(2), V = V, W = W)) } suMLE <- dlmMLE(NelPlo, rep(0,6), buildSu); suMLE buildSu(suMLE$par)[c("V","W")] StructTS(NelPlo[,1], type="level") ## compare with W[1,1] and V[1,1] StructTS(NelPlo[,2], type="level") ## compare with W[2,2] and V[2,2] ## multivariate local level model with homogeneity restriction buildHo <- function(x) { Vsd <- exp(x[1:2]) Vcorr <- tanh(x[3]) V <- Vsd %o% Vsd V[1,2] <- V[2,1] <- V[1,2] * Vcorr return(list( m0 = rep(0,2), C0 = 1e7 * diag(2), FF = diag(2), GG = diag(2), V = V, W = x[4]^2 * V)) } hoMLE <- dlmMLE(NelPlo, rep(0,4), buildHo); hoMLE buildHo(hoMLE$par)[c("V","W")]data(NelPlo) ### multivariate local level -- seemingly unrelated time series buildSu <- function(x) { Vsd <- exp(x[1:2]) Vcorr <- tanh(x[3]) V <- Vsd %o% Vsd V[1,2] <- V[2,1] <- V[1,2] * Vcorr Wsd <- exp(x[4:5]) Wcorr <- tanh(x[6]) W <- Wsd %o% Wsd W[1,2] <- W[2,1] <- W[1,2] * Wcorr return(list( m0 = rep(0,2), C0 = 1e7 * diag(2), FF = diag(2), GG = diag(2), V = V, W = W)) } suMLE <- dlmMLE(NelPlo, rep(0,6), buildSu); suMLE buildSu(suMLE$par)[c("V","W")] StructTS(NelPlo[,1], type="level") ## compare with W[1,1] and V[1,1] StructTS(NelPlo[,2], type="level") ## compare with W[2,2] and V[2,2] ## multivariate local level model with homogeneity restriction buildHo <- function(x) { Vsd <- exp(x[1:2]) Vcorr <- tanh(x[3]) V <- Vsd %o% Vsd V[1,2] <- V[2,1] <- V[1,2] * Vcorr return(list( m0 = rep(0,2), C0 = 1e7 * diag(2), FF = diag(2), GG = diag(2), V = V, W = x[4]^2 * V)) } hoMLE <- dlmMLE(NelPlo, rep(0,4), buildHo); hoMLE buildHo(hoMLE$par)[c("V","W")]
The function creates an object of class dlm representing a specified univariate or multivariate ARMA process
dlmModARMA(ar = NULL, ma = NULL, sigma2 = 1, dV, m0, C0)dlmModARMA(ar = NULL, ma = NULL, sigma2 = 1, dV, m0, C0)
ar |
a vector or a list of matrices (in the multivariate case) containing the autoregressive coefficients. |
ma |
a vector or a list of matrices (in the multivariate case) containing the moving average coefficients. |
sigma2 |
the variance (or variance matrix) of the innovations. |
dV |
the variance, or the diagonal elements of the variance
matrix in the multivariate case, of the observation noise. |
m0 |
|
C0 |
|
The returned DLM only gives one of the many possible representations of an ARMA process.
The function returns an object of class dlm representing the ARMA
model specified by ar, ma, and sigma2.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
Durbin and Koopman, Time series analysis by state space
methods, Oxford University Press, 2001.
dlmModPoly, dlmModSeas,
dlmModReg
## ARMA(2,3) dlmModARMA(ar = c(.5,.1), ma = c(.4,2,.3), sigma2=1) ## Bivariate ARMA(2,1) dlmModARMA(ar = list(matrix(1:4,2,2), matrix(101:104,2,2)), ma = list(matrix(-4:-1,2,2)), sigma2 = diag(2))## ARMA(2,3) dlmModARMA(ar = c(.5,.1), ma = c(.4,2,.3), sigma2=1) ## Bivariate ARMA(2,1) dlmModARMA(ar = list(matrix(1:4,2,2), matrix(101:104,2,2)), ma = list(matrix(-4:-1,2,2)), sigma2 = diag(2))
The function creates an th order polynomial DLM.
dlmModPoly(order = 2, dV = 1, dW = c(rep(0, order - 1), 1), m0 = rep(0, order), C0 = 1e+07 * diag(nrow = order))dlmModPoly(order = 2, dV = 1, dW = c(rep(0, order - 1), 1), m0 = rep(0, order), C0 = 1e+07 * diag(nrow = order))
order |
order of the polynomial model. The default corresponds to a stochastic linear trend. |
dV |
variance of the observation noise. |
dW |
diagonal elements of the variance matrix of the system noise. |
m0 |
|
C0 |
|
An object of class dlm representing the required n-th order polynomial model.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
West and Harrison, Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models
(2nd ed.), Springer, 1997.
dlmModARMA, dlmModReg,
dlmModSeas
## the default dlmModPoly() ## random walk plus noise dlmModPoly(1, dV = .3, dW = .01)## the default dlmModPoly() ## random walk plus noise dlmModPoly(1, dV = .3, dW = .01)
The function creates a dlm representation of a linear regression model.
dlmModReg(X, addInt = TRUE, dV = 1, dW = rep(0, NCOL(X) + addInt), m0 = rep(0, length(dW)), C0 = 1e+07 * diag(nrow = length(dW)))dlmModReg(X, addInt = TRUE, dV = 1, dW = rep(0, NCOL(X) + addInt), m0 = rep(0, length(dW)), C0 = 1e+07 * diag(nrow = length(dW)))
X |
the design matrix |
addInt |
logical: should an intercept be added? |
dV |
variance of the observation noise. |
dW |
diagonal elements of the variance matrix of the system noise. |
m0 |
|
C0 |
|
By setting dW equal to a nonzero vector one obtains a DLM
representation of a dynamic regression model. The default value zero
of dW corresponds to standard linear regression. Only
univariate regression is currently covered.
An object of class dlm representing the specified regression model.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
West and Harrison, Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models
(2nd ed.), Springer, 1997.
dlmModARMA, dlmModPoly,
dlmModSeas
x <- matrix(runif(6,4,10), nc = 2); x dlmModReg(x) dlmModReg(x, addInt = FALSE)x <- matrix(runif(6,4,10), nc = 2); x dlmModReg(x) dlmModReg(x, addInt = FALSE)
The function creates a DLM representation of seasonal component.
dlmModSeas(frequency, dV = 1, dW = c(1, rep(0, frequency - 2)), m0 = rep(0, frequency - 1), C0 = 1e+07 * diag(nrow = frequency - 1))dlmModSeas(frequency, dV = 1, dW = c(1, rep(0, frequency - 2)), m0 = rep(0, frequency - 1), C0 = 1e+07 * diag(nrow = frequency - 1))
frequency |
how many seasons? |
dV |
variance of the observation noise. |
dW |
diagonal elements of the variance matrix of the system noise. |
m0 |
|
C0 |
|
An object of class dlm representing a seasonal factor for a process
with frequency seasons.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
Harvey, Forecasting, structural time series models and the
Kalman filter, Cambridge University Press, 1989.
dlmModARMA, dlmModPoly,
dlmModReg, and dlmModTrig for the Fourier
representation of a seasonal component.
## seasonal component for quarterly data dlmModSeas(4, dV = 3.2)## seasonal component for quarterly data dlmModSeas(4, dV = 3.2)
The function creates a dlm representing a specified periodic component.
dlmModTrig(s, q, om, tau, dV = 1, dW = 0, m0, C0)dlmModTrig(s, q, om, tau, dV = 1, dW = 0, m0, C0)
s |
the period, if integer. |
q |
number of harmonics in the DLM. |
om |
the frequency. |
tau |
the period, if not an integer. |
dV |
variance of the observation noise. |
dW |
a single number expressing the variance of the system noise. |
m0 |
|
C0 |
|
The periodic component is specified by one and only one of s,
om, and tau. When s is given, the function
assumes that the period is an integer, while a period specified by
tau is assumed to be noninteger. Instead of tau,
the frequency om can be specified. The argument q
specifies the number of harmonics to include in the model. When
tau or omega is given, then q is required as
well, since in this case the implied Fourier representation has
infinitely many harmonics. On the other hand, if s is given,
q defaults to all the harmonics in the Fourier representation,
that is floor(s/2).
The system variance of the resulting dlm is dW times the identity
matrix of the appropriate dimension.
An object of class dlm, representing a periodic component.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
West and Harrison, Bayesian forecasting and
dynamic models (2nd ed.), Springer (1997).
dlmModSeas, dlmModARMA,
dlmModPoly, dlmModReg
dlmModTrig(s = 3) dlmModTrig(tau = 3, q = 1) # same thing dlmModTrig(s = 4) # for quarterly data dlmModTrig(s = 4, q = 1) dlmModTrig(tau = 4, q = 2) # a bad idea! m1 <- dlmModTrig(tau = 6.3, q = 2); m1 m2 <- dlmModTrig(om = 2 * pi / 6.3, q = 2) all.equal(unlist(m1), unlist(m2))dlmModTrig(s = 3) dlmModTrig(tau = 3, q = 1) # same thing dlmModTrig(s = 4) # for quarterly data dlmModTrig(s = 4, q = 1) dlmModTrig(tau = 4, q = 2) # a bad idea! m1 <- dlmModTrig(tau = 6.3, q = 2); m1 m2 <- dlmModTrig(om = 2 * pi / 6.3, q = 2) all.equal(unlist(m1), unlist(m2))
Generate a random (constant or time-varying) object of class
"dlm", along with states and observations from it.
dlmRandom(m, p, nobs = 0, JFF, JV, JGG, JW)dlmRandom(m, p, nobs = 0, JFF, JV, JGG, JW)
m |
dimension of the observation vector. |
p |
dimension of the state vector. |
nobs |
number of states and observations to simulate from the model. |
JFF |
should the model have a time-varying |
JV |
should the model have a time-varying |
JGG |
should the model have a time-varying |
JW |
should the model have a time-varying |
The function generates randomly the system and observation matrices and
the variances of a DLM having the specified state and observation
dimension. The system matrix GG is guaranteed to have
eigenvalues strictly less than one, which implies that a constant DLM is
asymptotically stationary. The default behavior is to generate a
constant DLM. If JFF is TRUE then a model for
nobs observations in which all
the elements of FF are time-varying is generated. Similarly
with JV, JGG, and JW.
The function returns a list with the following components.
mod |
An object of class |
theta |
Matrix of simulated state vectors from the model. |
y |
Matrix of simulated observations from the model. |
If nobs is zero, only the mod component is returned.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Anderson and Moore, Optimal filtering, Prentice-Hall (1979)
dlmRandom(1, 3, 5)dlmRandom(1, 3, 5)
The function apply Kalman smoother to compute smoothed values of the state vectors, together with their variance/covariance matrices.
dlmSmooth(y, ...) ## Default S3 method: dlmSmooth(y, mod, ...) ## S3 method for class 'dlmFiltered' dlmSmooth(y, ..., debug = FALSE)dlmSmooth(y, ...) ## Default S3 method: dlmSmooth(y, mod, ...) ## S3 method for class 'dlmFiltered' dlmSmooth(y, ..., debug = FALSE)
y |
an object used to select a method. |
... |
futher arguments passed to or from other methods. |
mod |
an object of class |
debug |
if |
The default method returns means and variances of the smoothing
distribution for a data vector (or matrix) y and a model
mod.
dlmSmooth.dlmFiltered produces the same output based on a
dlmFiltered object, typically one produced by a call to
dlmFilter.
The calculations are based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the relevant matrices. Variance matrices are returned in terms of their SVD.
A list with components
s |
Time series (or matrix) of smoothed values of the state vectors. The series starts one time unit before the first observation. |
U.S |
See below. |
D.S |
Together with |
The observation variance V in mod must be nonsingular.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Zhang, Y. and Li, X.R., Fixed-interval smoothing algorithm
based on singular value decomposition, Proceedings of the 1996
IEEE International Conference on Control Applications.
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
See dlm for a description of dlm objects,
dlmSvd2var to obtain a variance matrix from its SVD,
dlmFilter for Kalman filtering,
dlmMLE for maximum likelihood estimation, and
dlmBSample for drawing from the posterior distribution
of the state vectors.
s <- dlmSmooth(Nile, dlmModPoly(1, dV = 15100, dW = 1470)) plot(Nile, type ='o') lines(dropFirst(s$s), col = "red") ## Multivariate set.seed(2) tmp <- dlmRandom(3, 5, 20) obs <- tmp$y m <- tmp$mod rm(tmp) f <- dlmFilter(obs, m) s <- dlmSmooth(f) all.equal(s, dlmSmooth(obs, m))s <- dlmSmooth(Nile, dlmModPoly(1, dV = 15100, dW = 1470)) plot(Nile, type ='o') lines(dropFirst(s$s), col = "red") ## Multivariate set.seed(2) tmp <- dlmRandom(3, 5, 20) obs <- tmp$y m <- tmp$mod rm(tmp) f <- dlmFilter(obs, m) s <- dlmSmooth(f) all.equal(s, dlmSmooth(obs, m))
dlmSum creates a unique DLM out of two or more
independent DLMs. %+% is an alias for dlmSum.
dlmSum(...) x %+% ydlmSum(...) x %+% y
... |
any number of objects of class |
x, y
|
objects of class |
An object of class dlm, representing the outer sum of the
arguments.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
m1 <- dlmModPoly(2) m2 <- dlmModPoly(1) dlmSum(m1, m2) m1 %+% m2 # same thingm1 <- dlmModPoly(2) m2 <- dlmModPoly(1) dlmSum(m1, m2) m1 %+% m2 # same thing
The function computes a nonnegative definite matrix from its Singular Value Decomposition.
dlmSvd2var(u, d)dlmSvd2var(u, d)
u |
a square matrix, or a list of square matrices for a vectorized usage. |
d |
a vector, or a matrix for a vectorized usage. |
The SVD of a nonnegative definite by square matrix
can be written as , where is an
by orthogonal matrix and is a diagonal matrix. For a
single matrix, the function returns just . Note that the
argument d is a vector containing the diagonal elements of
. For a vectorized usage, u is a list of square
matrices, and d is a matrix. The returned value in this case is
a list of matrices, with the element being u[[i]] %*%
diag(d[i,]^2) %*% t(u[[i]]).
The function returns a nonnegative definite matrix, reconstructed from its SVD, or a list of such matrices (see details above).
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Horn and Johnson, Matrix analysis, Cambridge University Press (1985)
x <- matrix(rnorm(16),4,4) x <- crossprod(x) tmp <- La.svd(x) all.equal(dlmSvd2var(tmp$u, sqrt(tmp$d)), x) ## Vectorized usage x <- dlmFilter(Nile, dlmModPoly(1, dV=15099, dW=1469)) x$se <- sqrt(unlist(dlmSvd2var(x$U.C, x$D.C))) ## Level with 50% probability interval plot(Nile, lty=2) lines(dropFirst(x$m), col="blue") lines(dropFirst(x$m - .67*x$se), lty=3, col="blue") lines(dropFirst(x$m + .67*x$se), lty=3, col="blue")x <- matrix(rnorm(16),4,4) x <- crossprod(x) tmp <- La.svd(x) all.equal(dlmSvd2var(tmp$u, sqrt(tmp$d)), x) ## Vectorized usage x <- dlmFilter(Nile, dlmModPoly(1, dV=15099, dW=1469)) x$se <- sqrt(unlist(dlmSvd2var(x$U.C, x$D.C))) ## Level with 50% probability interval plot(Nile, lty=2) lines(dropFirst(x$m), col="blue") lines(dropFirst(x$m - .67*x$se), lty=3, col="blue") lines(dropFirst(x$m + .67*x$se), lty=3, col="blue")
A utility function, dropFirst drops the first element of a
vector or matrix, retaining the correct time series attributes, in
case the argument is a time series object.
dropFirst(x)dropFirst(x)
x |
a vector or matrix. |
The function returns x[-1] or x[-1,], if the argument is
a matrix. For an argument of class ts the class is preserved,
together with the correct tsp attribute.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
(pres <- dropFirst(presidents)) start(presidents) start(pres)(pres <- dropFirst(presidents)) start(presidents) start(pres)
Functions to get or set specific components of an object of class dlm
## S3 method for class 'dlm' FF(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' FF(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' V(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' V(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' GG(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' GG(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' W(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' W(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' m0(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' m0(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' C0(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' C0(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' JFF(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' JFF(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' JV(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' JV(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' JGG(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' JGG(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' JW(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' JW(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' X(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' X(x) <- value## S3 method for class 'dlm' FF(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' FF(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' V(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' V(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' GG(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' GG(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' W(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' W(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' m0(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' m0(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' C0(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' C0(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' JFF(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' JFF(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' JV(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' JV(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' JGG(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' JGG(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' JW(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' JW(x) <- value ## S3 method for class 'dlm' X(x) ## S3 replacement method for class 'dlm' X(x) <- value
x |
an object of class |
value |
a numeric matrix (or vector for |
Missing or infinite values are not allowed in value. The dimension of
value must match the dimension of the current value of the
specific component in x
For the assignment forms, the updated dlm object.
For the other forms, the specific component of x.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
set.seed(222) mod <- dlmRandom(5, 6) all.equal( FF(mod), mod$FF ) all.equal( V(mod), mod$V ) all.equal( GG(mod), mod$GG ) all.equal( W(mod), mod$W ) all.equal( m0(mod), mod$m0 ) all.equal( C0(mod), mod$C0) m0(mod) m0(mod) <- rnorm(6) C0(mod) C0(mod) <- rwishart(10, 6) ### A time-varying model mod <- dlmModReg(matrix(rnorm(10), 5, 2)) JFF(mod) X(mod)set.seed(222) mod <- dlmRandom(5, 6) all.equal( FF(mod), mod$FF ) all.equal( V(mod), mod$V ) all.equal( GG(mod), mod$GG ) all.equal( W(mod), mod$W ) all.equal( m0(mod), mod$m0 ) all.equal( C0(mod), mod$C0) m0(mod) m0(mod) <- rnorm(6) C0(mod) C0(mod) <- rwishart(10, 6) ### A time-varying model mod <- dlmModReg(matrix(rnorm(10), 5, 2)) JFF(mod) X(mod)
Returns the mean, the standard deviation of the mean, and a sequence of partial means of the input vector or matrix.
mcmcMean(x, sd = TRUE) mcmcMeans(x, sd = TRUE) mcmcSD(x) ergMean(x, m = 1)mcmcMean(x, sd = TRUE) mcmcMeans(x, sd = TRUE) mcmcSD(x) ergMean(x, m = 1)
x |
vector or matrix containing the output of a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. |
sd |
logical: should an estimate of the Monte Carlo standard deviation be reported? |
m |
ergodic means are computed for |
The argument x is typically the output from a simulation. If a
matrix, rows are considered consecutive simulations of a target
vector. In this case means, standard deviations, and ergodic means
are returned for each column. The standard deviation of the mean is
estimated using Sokal's method (see the reference). mcmcMeans
is an alias for mcmcMean.
mcmcMean returns the sample mean of a vector containing the output
of an MCMC sampler, together with an estimated standard error. If the input
is a matrix, means and standard errors are computed for each column.mcmcSD returns an estimate of the standard deviation of the mean for
the output of an MCMC sampler.ergMean returns a vector of running ergodic means.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
P. Green (2001). A Primer on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In Complex Stochastic Systems, (Barndorff-Nielsen, Cox and Kl\"uppelberg, eds.). Chapman and Hall/CRC.
x <- matrix(rexp(1000), nc=4) dimnames(x) <- list(NULL, LETTERS[1:NCOL(x)]) mcmcSD(x) mcmcMean(x) em <- ergMean(x, m = 51) plot(ts(em, start=51), xlab="Iteration", main="Ergodic means")x <- matrix(rexp(1000), nc=4) dimnames(x) <- list(NULL, LETTERS[1:NCOL(x)]) mcmcSD(x) mcmcMean(x) em <- ergMean(x, m = 51) plot(ts(em, start=51), xlab="Iteration", main="Ergodic means")
A subset of Nelson-Plosser data.
data(NelPlo)data(NelPlo)
The format is: mts [1:43, 1:2] -4.39 3.12 1.08 -1.50 3.91 ... - attr(*, "tsp")= num [1:3] 1946 1988 1 - attr(*, "class")= chr [1:2] "mts" "ts" - attr(*, "dimnames")=List of 2 ..$ : NULL ..$ : chr [1:2] "ip" "stock.prices"
The series are 100*diff(log()) of
industrial production and stock prices (S&P500) from 1946 to 1988.
The complete data set is available in package tseries.
data(NelPlo) plot(NelPlo)data(NelPlo) plot(NelPlo)
The function computes one-step forecast errors for a filtered dynamic linear model.
## S3 method for class 'dlmFiltered' residuals(object, ..., type = c("standardized", "raw"), sd = TRUE)## S3 method for class 'dlmFiltered' residuals(object, ..., type = c("standardized", "raw"), sd = TRUE)
object |
an object of class |
... |
unused additional arguments. |
type |
should standardized or raw forecast errors be produced? |
sd |
when |
A vector or matrix (in the multivariate case) of one-step forecast
errors, standardized if type = "standardized". Time series
attributes of the original observation vector (matrix) are retained by
the one-step forecast errors.
If sd = TRUE then the returned value is a list with the
one-step forecast errors in component res and the corresponding
standard deviations in component sd.
The object argument must include a component y
containing the data. This component will not be present if
object was obtained by calling dlmFilter with
simplify = TRUE.
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Giovanni Petris (2010), An R Package for Dynamic Linear
Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 36(12), 1-16.
https://www.jstatsoft.org/v36/i12/.
Petris, Petrone, and Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with
R, Springer (2009).
West and Harrison, Bayesian forecasting and
dynamic models (2nd ed.), Springer (1997).
## diagnostic plots nileMod <- dlmModPoly(1, dV = 15100, dW = 1468) nileFilt <- dlmFilter(Nile, nileMod) res <- residuals(nileFilt, sd=FALSE) qqnorm(res) tsdiag(nileFilt)## diagnostic plots nileMod <- dlmModPoly(1, dV = 15100, dW = 1468) nileFilt <- dlmFilter(Nile, nileMod) res <- residuals(nileFilt, sd=FALSE) qqnorm(res) tsdiag(nileFilt)
Generate a draw from a Wishart distribution.
rwishart(df, p = nrow(SqrtSigma), Sigma, SqrtSigma = diag(p))rwishart(df, p = nrow(SqrtSigma), Sigma, SqrtSigma = diag(p))
df |
degrees of freedom. It has to be integer. |
p |
dimension of the matrix to simulate. |
Sigma |
the matrix parameter Sigma of the Wishart distribution. |
SqrtSigma |
a square root of the matrix parameter Sigma of the
Wishart distribution. Sigma must be equal to |
The Wishart is a distribution on the set of nonnegative definite symmetric matrices. Its density is
where is the degrees of freedom parameter df and
is a normalizing constant.
The mean of the Wishart distribution is and the
variance of an entry is
The matrix parameter, which should be a positive definite symmetric matrix, can be specified via either the argument Sigma or SqrtSigma. If Sigma is specified, then SqrtSigma is ignored. No checks are made for symmetry and positive definiteness of Sigma.
The function returns one draw from the Wishart distribution with
df degrees of freedom and matrix parameter Sigma or
crossprod(SqrtSigma)
The function only works for an integer number of degrees of freedom.
From a suggestion by B.Venables, posted on S-news
Giovanni Petris [email protected]
Press (1982). Applied multivariate analysis.
rwishart(25, p = 3) a <- matrix(rnorm(9), 3) rwishart(30, SqrtSigma = a) b <- crossprod(a) rwishart(30, Sigma = b)rwishart(25, p = 3) a <- matrix(rnorm(9), 3) rwishart(30, SqrtSigma = a) b <- crossprod(a) rwishart(30, Sigma = b)
US macroeconomic data.
data(USecon)data(USecon)
The format is: mts [1:40, 1:2] 0.1364 0.0778 -0.3117 -0.5478 -1.2636 ... - attr(*, "dimnames")=List of 2 ..$ : NULL ..$ : chr [1:2] "M1" "GNP" - attr(*, "tsp")= num [1:3] 1978 1988 4 - attr(*, "class")= chr [1:2] "mts" "ts"
The series are 100*diff(log()) of seasonally adjusted real
U.S. money 'M1' and GNP from 1978 to 1987.
The complete data set is available in package tseries.
data(USecon) plot(USecon)data(USecon) plot(USecon)