Package 'castor'

Title: Efficient Phylogenetics on Large Trees
Description: Efficient phylogenetic analyses on massive phylogenies comprising up to millions of tips. Functions include pruning, rerooting, calculation of most-recent common ancestors, calculating distances from the tree root and calculating pairwise distances. Calculation of phylogenetic signal and mean trait depth (trait conservatism), ancestral state reconstruction and hidden character prediction of discrete characters, simulating and fitting models of trait evolution, fitting and simulating diversification models, dating trees, comparing trees, and reading/writing trees in Newick format. Citation: Louca, Stilianos and Doebeli, Michael (2017) <doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/btx701>.
Authors: Stilianos Louca [aut, cre, cph]
Maintainer: Stilianos Louca <[email protected]>
License: GPL (>= 2)
Version: 1.8.3
Built: 2024-11-20 14:31:39 UTC
Source: CRAN

Help Index


Efficient computations on large phylogenetic trees.

Description

This package provides efficient tree manipulation functions including pruning, rerooting, calculation of most-recent common ancestors, calculating distances from the tree root and calculating pairwise distance matrices. Calculation of phylogenetic signal and mean trait depth (trait conservatism). Efficient ancestral state reconstruction and hidden character prediction of discrete characters on phylogenetic trees, using Maximum Likelihood and Maximum Parsimony methods. Simulating models of trait evolution, and generating random trees.

Details

The most important data unit is a phylogenetic tree of class "phylo", with the tree topology encoded in the member variable tree.edge. See the ape package manual for details on the "phylo" format. The castor package was designed to be efficient for large phylogenetic trees (>10,000 tips), and scales well to trees with millions of tips. Most functions have asymptotically linear time complexity O(N) in the number of edges N. This efficiency is achived via temporary auxiliary data structures, use of dynamic programing, heavy use of C++, and integer-based indexing instead of name-based indexing of arrays. All functions support trees that include monofurcations (nodes with a single child) as well as multifurcations (nodes with more than 2 children). See the associated paper by Louca et al. for a comparison with other packages.

Throughout this manual, "Ntips" refers to the number of tips, "Nnodes" to the number of nodes and "Nedges" to the number of edges in a tree. In the context of discrete trait evolution/reconstruction, "Nstates" refers to the number of possible states of the trait. In the context of multivariate trait evolution, "Ntraits" refers to the number of traits.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Maintainer: Stilianos Louca <[email protected]>

References

S. Louca and M. Doebeli (2017). Efficient comparative phylogenetics on large trees. Bioinformatics. DOI:10.1093/bioinformatics/btx701


Empirical ancestral state probabilities.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and the states of a discrete trait for each tip, calculate the empirical state frequencies/probabilities for each node in the tree, i.e. the frequencies/probabilities of states across all tips descending from that node. This may be used as a very crude estimate of ancestral state probabilities.

Usage

asr_empirical_probabilities(tree, tip_states, Nstates=NULL, 
                            probabilities=TRUE, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

An integer vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree as an integer from 1 to Nstates, where Nstates is the possible number of states (see below).

Nstates

Either NULL, or an integer specifying the number of possible states of the trait. If NULL, then it will be computed based on the maximum value encountered in tip_states

probabilities

Logical, specifying whether empirical frequencies should be normalized to represent probabilities. If FALSE, then the raw occurrence counts are returned.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

For this function, the trait's states must be represented by integers within 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the total number of possible states. If the states are originally in some other format (e.g., characters or factors), you should map them to a set of integers 1,..,Nstates. You can easily map any set of discrete states to integers using the function map_to_state_space.

The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges x Nstates).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

Value

A list with the following elements:

ancestral_likelihoods

A 2D integer (if probabilities==FALSE) or numeric (if probabilities==TRUE) matrix, listing the frequency or probability of each state for each node. This matrix will have size Nnodes x Nstates, where Nstates was either explicitly provided as an argument or inferred from tip_states. The rows in this matrix will be in the order in which nodes are indexed in the tree, i.e. the [n,s]-th entry will be the frequency or probability of the s-th state for the n-th node. Note that the name was chosen for compatibility with other ASR functions.

ancestral_states

Integer vector of length Nnodes, listing the ancestral states with highest probability. In the case of ties, the first state with maximum probability is chosen. This vector is computed based on ancestral_likelihoods.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

asr_max_parsimony, asr_squared_change_parsimony asr_mk_model, map_to_state_space

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# create a random transition matrix
Nstates = 3
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ER", max_rate=0.01)
cat(sprintf("Simulated ER transition rate=%g\n",Q[1,2]))

# simulate the trait's evolution
simulation = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)
tip_states = simulation$tip_states

# calculate empirical probabilities of tip states
asr_empirical_probabilities(tree, tip_states=tip_states, Nstates=Nstates)

## End(Not run)

Ancestral state reconstruction via phylogenetic independent contrasts.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral states for a continuous (numeric) trait using phylogenetic independent contrasts (PIC; Felsenstein, 1985).

Usage

asr_independent_contrasts(tree, 
                          tip_states,
                          weighted    = TRUE, 
                          include_CI  = FALSE,
                          check_input = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the known state of each tip in the tree.

weighted

Logical, specifying whether to weight tips and nodes by the inverse length of their incoming edge, as in the original method by Felsenstein (1985). If FALSE, edge lengths are treated as if they were 1.

include_CI

Logical, specifying whether to also calculate standard errors and confidence intervals for the reconstructed states under a Brownian motion model, as described by Garland et al (1999).

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

The function traverses the tree in postorder (tips–>root) and estimates the state of each node as a convex combination of the estimated states of its chilren. These estimates are the intermediate "X" variables introduced by Felsenstein (1985) in his phylogenetic independent contrasts method. For the root, this yields the same globally parsimonious state as the squared-changes parsimony algorithm implemented in asr_squared_change_parsimony (Maddison 1991). For any other node, PIC only yields locally parsimonious reconstructions, i.e. reconstructed states only depend on the subtree descending from the node (see discussion by Maddison 1991).

If weighted==TRUE, then this function yields the same ancestral state reconstructions as

ape::ace(phy=tree, x=tip_states, type="continuous", method="pic", model="BM", CI=FALSE)

in the ape package (v. 0.5-64). Note that in contrast to the CI95 returned by ape::ace, the confidence intervals calculated here have the same units as the trait and depend both on the tree topology as well as the tip states.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. This is the same as setting weighted=FALSE. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Edges with length 0 will be adjusted internally to some tiny length if needed (if weighted==TRUE).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include item names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE). All tip states must be non-NA; otherwise, consider using one of the functions for hidden-state-prediction (e.g., hsp_independent_contrasts).

The function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges).

Value

A list with the following elements:

ancestral_states

A numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing the reconstructed state of each node. The entries in this vector will be in the order in which nodes are indexed in the tree.

standard_errors

Numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing the phylogenetically estimated standard error for the state in each node, under a Brownian motion model. The standard errors have the same units as the trait and depend both on the tree topology as well as the tip states. Calculated as described by Garland et al. (1999, page 377). Only included if include_CI==TRUE.

CI95

Numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing the radius (half width) of the 95% confidence interval of the state in each node. Confidence intervals have same units as the trait and depend both on the tree topology as well as the tip states. For each node, the confidence interval is calculated according to the Student's t-distribution with Npics degrees of freedom, where Npics is the number of internally calculated independent contrasts descending from the node [Garland et al, 1999]. Only included if include_CI==TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. Felsenstein (1985). Phylogenies and the Comparative Method. The American Naturalist. 125:1-15.

W. P. Maddison (1991). Squared-change parsimony reconstructions of ancestral states for continuous-valued characters on a phylogenetic tree. Systematic Zoology. 40:304-314.

T. Garland Jr., P. E. Midford, A. R. Ives (1999). An introduction to phylogenetically based statistical methods, with a new method for confidence intervals on ancestral values. American Zoologist. 39:374-388.

See Also

asr_squared_change_parsimony, asr_max_parsimony, asr_mk_model

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a continuous trait
tip_states = simulate_ou_model(tree, 
                               stationary_mean=0,
                               stationary_std=1,
                               decay_rate=0.001)$tip_states

# reconstruct node states via weighted PIC
asr = asr_independent_contrasts(tree, tip_states, weighted=TRUE, include_CI=TRUE)
node_states = asr$ancestral_states

# get lower bounds of 95% CIs
lower_bounds = node_states - asr$CI95

Maximum-parsimony ancestral state reconstruction.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral states for a discrete trait using maximum parsimony. Transition costs can vary between transitions, and can optionally be weighted by edge length.

Usage

asr_max_parsimony(tree, tip_states, Nstates=NULL, 
                  transition_costs="all_equal",
                  edge_exponent=0, weight_by_scenarios=TRUE,
                  check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

An integer vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree as an integer from 1 to Nstates, where Nstates is the possible number of states (see below).

Nstates

Either NULL, or an integer specifying the number of possible states of the trait. If NULL, then Nstates will be computed based on the maximum value encountered in tip_states

transition_costs

Either "all_equal","sequential", "proportional", "exponential", or a quadratic non-negatively valued matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, specifying the transition costs between all possible states (which can include 0 as well as Inf). The [r,c]-th entry of the matrix is the cost of transitioning from state r to state c. The option "all_equal" specifies that all transitions are permitted and are equally costly. "sequential" means that only transitions between adjacent states are permitted from a node to its children, and all permitted transitions are equally costly. "proportional" means that all transitions are permitted, but the cost increases proportional to the distance between states. "exponential" means that all transitions are permitted, but the cost increases exponentially with the distance between states. The options "sequential" and "proportional" only make sense if states exhibit an order relation (as reflected in their integer representation).

edge_exponent

Non-negative real-valued number. Optional exponent for weighting transition costs by the inverse length of edge lengths. If 0, edge lengths do not influence the ancestral state reconstruction (this is the conventional max-parsimony). If >0, then at each edge the transition costs are multiplied by 1/Le1/L^e, where LL is the edge length and ee is the edge exponent. This parameter is mostly experimental; modify at your own discretion.

weight_by_scenarios

Logical, indicating whether to weight each optimal state of a node by the number of optimal maximum-parsimony scenarios in which the node is in that state. If FALSE, then all optimal states of a node are weighted equally (i.e. are assigned equal probabilities).

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

For this function, the trait's states must be represented by integers within 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the total number of possible states. If the states are originally in some other format (e.g. characters or factors), you should map them to a set of integers 1,..,Nstates. The order of states (if relevant) should be reflected in their integer representation. For example, if your original states are "small", "medium" and "large" and transition_costs=="sequential", it is advised to represent these states as integers 1,2,3. You can easily map any set of discrete states to integers using the function map_to_state_space.

This function utilizes Sankoff's (1975) dynamic programming algorithm for determining the smallest number (or least costly if transition costs are uneven) of state changes along edges needed to reproduce the observed tip states. The function has asymptotic time complexity O(Ntips+Nnodes x Nstates).

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. If edge_exponent is 0, then edge lengths do not influence the result. If edge_exponent!=0, then all edges must have non-zero length. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. None of the input vectors or matrixes need include row or column names; if they do, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

This function is meant for reconstructing ancestral states in all nodes of a tree, when the state of each tip is known. If some of the tips have unknown state, consider either pruning the tree to keep only tips with known states, or using the function hsp_max_parsimony.

Not all datasets are consistent with all possible transition cost models, i.e., it could happen that for some peculiar datasets some rather constrained models (e.g. "sequential") cannot possibly produce the data. In this case, castor will most likely return non-sensical ancestral state estimates and total_cost=Inf, although this has not thoroughly been tested.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Boolean, indicating whether ASR was successful. If FALSE, the remaining returned elements may be undefined.

ancestral_likelihoods

A 2D numeric matrix, listing the probability of each node being in each state. This matrix will have size Nnodes x Nstates, where Nstates was either explicitly provided as an argument or inferred from tip_states. The rows in this matrix will be in the order in which nodes are indexed in the tree, i.e. the [n,s]-th entry will be the probability of the s-th state for the n-th node. These probabilities are calculated based on scenario_counts (see below), assuming that every maximum parsimony scenario is equally likely. Note that the name was chosen for compatibility with other ASR functions.

scenario_counts

A 2D numeric matrix of size Nnodes x Nstates, listing for each node and each state the number of maximum parsimony scenarios in which the node was in the specific state. If only a single maximum parsimony scenario exists for the whole tree, then the sum of entries in each row will be one.

ancestral_states

Integer vector of length Nnodes, listing the ancestral states with highest likelihoods. In the case of ties, the first state with maximum likelihood is chosen. This vector is computed based on ancestral_likelihoods.

total_cost

Real number, specifying the total transition cost across the tree for the most parsimonious scenario. In the classical case where transition_costs="all_equal", the total_cost equals the total number of state changes in the tree under the most parsimonious scenario. Under some constrained transition models (e.g., "sequential"), total_cost may sometimes be Inf, which basically means that the data violates the model.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

D. Sankoff (1975). Minimal mutation trees of sequences. SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics. 28:35-42.

J. Felsenstein (2004). Inferring Phylogenies. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts.

See Also

hsp_max_parsimony, asr_squared_change_parsimony asr_mk_model, hsp_mk_model, map_to_state_space

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate random tree
Ntips = 10
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a discrete trait
Nstates = 5
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ER")
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states

# reconstruct node states via MPR
results = asr_max_parsimony(tree, tip_states, Nstates)
node_states = max.col(results$ancestral_likelihoods)

# print reconstructed node states
print(node_states)

## End(Not run)

Ancestral state reconstruction with Mk models and rerooting

Description

Ancestral state reconstruction of a discrete trait using a fixed-rates continuous-time Markov model (a.k.a. "Mk model"). This function can estimate the (instantaneous) transition matrix using maximum likelihood, or take a specified transition matrix. The function can optionally calculate marginal ancestral state likelihoods for each node in the tree, using the rerooting method by Yang et al. (1995).

Usage

asr_mk_model( tree, 
              tip_states, 
              Nstates               = NULL, 
              tip_priors            = NULL, 
              rate_model            = "ER", 
              transition_matrix     = NULL, 
              include_ancestral_likelihoods = TRUE, 
              reroot                = TRUE,
              root_prior            = "auto", 
              Ntrials               = 1, 
              optim_algorithm       = "nlminb",
              optim_max_iterations  = 200,
              optim_rel_tol         = 1e-8,
              store_exponentials    = TRUE,
              check_input           = TRUE, 
              Nthreads              = 1)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

An integer vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree in terms of an integer from 1 to Nstates, where Ntips is the number of tips and Nstates is the number of possible states (see below). Can also be NULL. If tip_states==NULL, then tip_priors must not be NULL (see below).

Nstates

Either NULL, or an integer specifying the number of possible states of the trait. If Nstates==NULL, then it will be computed based on the maximum value encountered in tip_states or based on the number of columns in tip_priors (whichever is non-NULL).

tip_priors

A 2D numeric matrix of size Ntips x Nstates, where Nstates is the possible number of states for the character modelled. Hence, tip_priors[i,s] is the likelihood of the observed state of tip i, if the tip's true state was in state s. For example, if you know for certain that a tip is in state k, then set tip_priors[i,s]=1 for s=k and tip_priors[i,s]=0 for all other s.

rate_model

Rate model to be used for fitting the transition rate matrix. Can be "ER" (all rates equal), "SYM" (transition rate i–>j is equal to transition rate j–>i), "ARD" (all rates can be different), "SUEDE" (only stepwise transitions i–>i+1 and i–>i-1 allowed, all 'up' transitions are equal, all 'down' transitions are equal) or "SRD" (only stepwise transitions i–>i+1 and i–>i-1 allowed, and each rate can be different). Can also be an index matrix that maps entries of the transition matrix to the corresponding independent rate parameter to be fitted. Diagonal entries should map to 0, since diagonal entries are not treated as independent rate parameters but are calculated from the remaining entries in the transition matrix. All other entries that map to 0 represent a transition rate of zero. The format of this index matrix is similar to the format used by the ace function in the ape package. rate_model is only relevant if transition_matrix==NULL.

transition_matrix

Either a numeric quadratic matrix of size Nstates x Nstates containing fixed transition rates, or NULL. The [r,c]-th entry in this matrix should store the transition rate from state r to state c. Each row in this matrix must have sum zero. If NULL, then the transition rates will be estimated using maximum likelihood, based on the rate_model specified.

root_prior

Prior probability distribution of the root's states, used to calculate the model's overall likelihood from the root's marginal ancestral state likelihoods. Can be "flat" (all states equal), "empirical" (empirical probability distribution of states across the tree's tips), "stationary" (stationary probability distribution of the transition matrix), "likelihoods" (use the root's state likelihoods as prior) or "max_likelihood" (put all weight onto the state with maximum likelihood). If "stationary" and transition_matrix==NULL, then a transition matrix is first fitted using a flat root prior, and then used to calculate the stationary distribution. root_prior can also be a non-negative numeric vector of size Nstates and with total sum equal to 1.

include_ancestral_likelihoods

Include the marginal ancestral likelihoods for each node (conditional scaled state likelihoods) in the return values. Note that this may increase the computation time and memory needed, so you may set this to FALSE if you don't need marginal ancestral states.

reroot

Reroot tree at each node when computing marginal ancestral likelihoods, according to Yang et al. (1995). This is the default and recommended behavior, but leads to increased computation time. If FALSE, ancestral likelihoods at each node are computed solely based on the subtree descending from that node, without rerooting. Caution: Rerooting is strictly speaking only valid if the Mk model is time-reversible (for example, if the transition matrix is symmetric). Do not use the rerooting method if rate_model="ARD".

Ntrials

Number of trials (starting points) for fitting the transition matrix. Only relevant if transition_matrix=NULL. A higher number may reduce the risk of landing in a local non-global optimum of the likelihood function, but will increase computation time during fitting.

optim_algorithm

Either "optim" or "nlminb", specifying which optimization algorithm to use for maximum-likelihood estimation of the transition matrix. Only relevant if transition_matrix==NULL.

optim_max_iterations

Maximum number of iterations (per fitting trial) allowed for optimizing the likelihood function.

optim_rel_tol

Relative tolerance (stop criterion) for optimizing the likelihood function.

store_exponentials

Logical, specifying whether to pre-calculate and store exponentials of the transition matrix during calculation of ancestral likelihoods. This may reduce computation time because each exponential is only calculated once, but requires more memory since all exponentials are stored.

Only relevant if include_ancestral_likelihoods==TRUE, otherwise exponentials are never stored.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Nthreads

Number of parallel threads to use for running multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This only makes sense if your computer has multiple cores/CPUs and if Ntrials>1, and is only relevant if transition_matrix==NULL. This option is ignored on Windows, because Windows does not support forking.

Details

For this function, the trait's states must be represented by integers within 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the total number of possible states. If the states are originally in some other format (e.g. characters or factors), you should map them to a set of integers 1,..,Nstates. The order of states (if relevant) should be reflected in their integer representation. For example, if your original states are "small", "medium" and "large" and rate_model=="SUEDE", it is advised to represent these states as integers 1,2,3. You can easily map any set of discrete states to integers using the function map_to_state_space.

This function allows the specification of the precise tip states (if these are known) using the vector tip_states. Alternatively, if some tip states are only known in terms of a probability distribution, you can pass these probability distributions using the matrix tip_priors. Note that exactly one of the two arguments, tip_states or tip_priors, must be non-NULL.

Tips must be represented in tip_states or tip_priors in the same order as in tree$tip.label. None of the input vectors or matrixes need include row or column names; if they do, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

The tree is either assumed to be complete (i.e. include all possible species), or to represent a random subset of species chosen independently of their states. The rerooting method by Yang et al (1995) is used to calculate the marginal ancestral state likelihoods for each node by treating the node as a root and calculating its conditional scaled likelihoods. Note that the re-rooting algorithm is strictly speaking only valid for reversible Mk models, that is, satisfying the criterion

πiQij=πjQji,i,j,\pi_i Q_{ij}=\pi_j Q_{ji},\quad\forall i,j,

where QQ is the transition rate matrix and π\pi is the stationary distribution of the model. The rate models “ER”, 'SYM”, “SUEDE” and “SRD” are reversible. For example, for “SUEDE” or “SRD” choose πi+1=πiQi,i+1/Qi+1,i\pi_{i+1}=\pi_{i}Q_{i,i+1}/Q_{i+1,i}. In contrast, “ARD” models are generally not reversible.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). This function is similar to rerootingMethod in the phytools package (v0.5-64) and similar to ape::ace (v4.1) with options method="ML", type="discrete" and marginal=FALSE, but tends to be much faster than rerootingMethod and ace for large trees.

Internally, this function uses fit_mk to estimate the transition matrix if the latter is not provided. If you only care about estimating the transition matrix but not the ancestral states, consider using the more versatile function fit_mk.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether ASR was successful. If FALSE, all other return values may be NULL.

Nstates

Integer, specifying the number of modeled trait states.

transition_matrix

A numeric quadratic matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, containing the transition rates of the Markov model. The [r,c]-th entry is the transition rate from state r to state c. Will be the same as the input transition_matrix, if the latter was not NULL.

loglikelihood

Log-likelihood of the observed tip states under the fitted (or provided) Mk model. If transition_matrix was NULL in the input, then this will be the log-likelihood maximized during fitting.

AIC

Numeric, the Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted Mk model (if applicable), defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of independent fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood. If the transition matrix was provided as input, then no fitting was performed and hence AIC will be NULL.

ancestral_likelihoods

Optional, only returned if include_ancestral_likelihoods was TRUE. A 2D numeric matrix, listing the likelihood of each state at each node (marginal ancestral likelihoods). This matrix will have size Nnodes x Nstates, where Nstates was either explicitly provided as an argument, or inferred from tip_states or tip_priors (whichever was non-NULL). The rows in this matrix will be in the order in which nodes are indexed in the tree, i.e. the [n,s]-th entry will be the likelihood of the s-th state at the n-th node. For example, likelihoods[1,3] will store the likelihood of observing the tree's tip states (if reroot=TRUE) or the descending subtree's tip states (if reroot=FALSE), if the first node was in state 3. Note that likelihoods are rescaled (normalized) to sum to 1 for convenience and numerical stability. The marginal likelihoods at a node should not, however, be interpreted as a probability distribution among states.

ancestral_states

Integer vector of length Nnodes, listing the ancestral states with highest likelihoods. In the case of ties, the first state with maximum likelihood is chosen. This vector is computed based on ancestral_likelihoods and is only included if include_ancestral_likelihoods=TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Z. Yang, S. Kumar and M. Nei (1995). A new method for inference of ancestral nucleotide and amino acid sequences. Genetics. 141:1641-1650.

See Also

hsp_mk_model, asr_max_parsimony, asr_squared_change_parsimony, hsp_max_parsimony, map_to_state_space, fit_mk

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# create random transition matrix
Nstates = 5
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ER", max_rate=0.01)
cat(sprintf("Simulated ER transition rate=%g\n",Q[1,2]))

# simulate the trait's evolution
simulation = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)
tip_states = simulation$tip_states
cat(sprintf("Simulated states for last 20 nodes:\n"))
print(tail(simulation$node_states,20))

# reconstruct node states from simulated tip states
# at each node, pick state with highest marginal likelihood
results = asr_mk_model(tree, tip_states, Nstates, rate_model="ER", Ntrials=2)
node_states = max.col(results$ancestral_likelihoods)

# print Mk model fitting summary
cat(sprintf("Mk model: log-likelihood=%g\n",results$loglikelihood))
cat(sprintf("Fitted ER transition rate=%g\n",results$transition_matrix[1,2]))

# print reconstructed node states for last 20 nodes
print(tail(node_states,20))

## End(Not run)

Squared-change parsimony ancestral state reconstruction.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral states for a continuous (numeric) trait using squared-change maximum parsimony (Maddison, 1991). Transition costs can optionally be weighted by the inverse edge lengths ("weighted squared-change parsimony" by Maddison).

Usage

asr_squared_change_parsimony(tree, tip_states,  weighted=TRUE, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the known state of each tip in the tree.

weighted

Logical, specifying whether to weight transition costs by the inverted edge lengths. This corresponds to the "weighted squared-change parsimony" reconstruction by Maddison (1991) for a Brownian motion model of trait evolution.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

The function traverses the tree in postorder (tips–>root) to calculate the quadratic parameters described by Maddison (1991) and obtain the globally parsimonious squared-change parsimony state for the root. The function then reroots at each node, updates all affected quadratic parameters in the tree and calculates the node's globally parsimonious squared-change parsimony state. The function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges).

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. This is the same as setting weighted=FALSE. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Edges with length 0 will be adjusted internally to some tiny length if needed (if weighted==TRUE).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include item names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

If weighted==FALSE, then this function yields the same ancestral state reconstructions as

ape::ace(tip_states, tree, type="continuous", method="ML", model="BM", CI=FALSE)

in the ape package (v. 0.5-64), assuming the tree as unit edge lengths. If weighted==TRUE, then this function yields the same ancestral state reconstructions as the maximum likelihood estimates under a Brownian motion model, as implemented by the Rphylopars package (v. 0.2.10):

Rphylopars::anc.recon(tip_states, tree, vars=FALSE, CI=FALSE).

Value

A list with the following elements:

ancestral_states

A numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing the reconstructed state of each node. The entries in this vector will be in the order in which nodes are indexed in the tree.

total_sum_of_squared_changes

The total sum of squared changes, minimized by the (optionally weighted) squared-change parsimony algorithm. This is equation 7 in (Maddison, 1991).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

W. P. Maddison (1991). Squared-change parsimony reconstructions of ancestral states for continuous-valued characters on a phylogenetic tree. Systematic Zoology. 40:304-314.

See Also

asr_independent_contrasts asr_max_parsimony, asr_mk_model

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a continuous trait
tip_states = simulate_ou_model(tree, 
                               stationary_mean=0,
                               stationary_std=1,
                               decay_rate=0.001)$tip_states

# reconstruct node states based on simulated tip states
node_states = asr_squared_change_parsimony(tree, tip_states, weighted=TRUE)$ancestral_states

Ancestral state reconstruction via subtree averaging.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral states in a phylogenetic tree for a continuous (numeric) trait by averaging trait values over descending subtrees. That is, for each node the reconstructed state is set to the arithmetic average state of all tips descending from that node.

Usage

asr_subtree_averaging(tree, tip_states, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the known state of each tip in the tree.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

The function returns the estimated ancestral states (=averages) as well as the corresponding standard deviations. Note that reconstructed states are local estimates, i.e. they only take into account the tips descending from the reconstructed node.

The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Edge lengths and distances between tips and nodes are not taken into account. All tip states are assumed to be known, and NA or NaN are not allowed in tip_states.

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include item names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether ASR was sucessful. If all input data are valid then this will always be TRUE, but it is provided for consistency with other ASR functions.

ancestral_states

A numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing the reconstructed state (=average over descending tips) for each node. The entries in this vector will be in the order in which nodes are indexed in the tree.

ancestral_stds

A numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing the standard deviations corresponding to ancestral_stds.

ancestral_counts

A numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing the number of (descending) tips used to reconstruct the state of each node.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

asr_independent_contrasts, asr_squared_change_parsimony

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a continuous trait
tip_states = simulate_ou_model(tree, stationary_mean=0, 
                               stationary_std=1, decay_rate=0.001)$tip_states

# reconstruct node states by averaging simulated tip states
node_states = asr_subtree_averaging(tree, tip_states)$ancestral_states

Estimate the density of tips & nodes in a timetree.

Description

Given a rooted timetree (i.e., a tree whose edge lengths represent time intervals), estimate the density of tips and nodes as a function of age (tips or nodes per time unit), on a discrete grid. Optionally the densities can be normalized by the local number of lineages. If the tree is full (includes all extinct & extant clades), then the normalized tip (node) density is an estimate for the per-capita extinction (speciation) rate.

Usage

clade_densities(tree, 
                Nbins       = NULL,
                min_age     = NULL,
                max_age     = NULL,
                normalize   = TRUE,
                ultrametric	= FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo", where edge lengths represent time intervals (or similar).

Nbins

Integer, number of equidistant age bins at which to calculate densities.

min_age

Numeric, minimum age to consider. If NULL, it will be set to the minimum possible.

max_age

Numeric, maximum age to consider. If NULL, it will be set to the maximum possible.

normalize

Logical, whether to normalize densities by the local number of lineages (in addition to dividing by the age interval). Hence, tip (or node) densities will represent number of tips (or nodes) per time unit per lineage.

ultrametric

Logical, specifying whether the input tree is guaranteed to be ultrametric, even in the presence of some numerical inaccuracies causing some tips not have exactly the same distance from the root.

Details

This function discretizes the full considered age range (from min_age to max_age) into Nbins discrete disjoint bins, then computes the number of tips and nodes in each bin, and finally divides those numbers by the bin width. If normalize==True, the densities are further divided by the number of lineages in the middle of each age bin. For typical timetrees it is generally recommended to omit the most recent tips (i.e., extant at age 0), by setting min_age to a small non-zero value; otherwise, the first age bin will typically be associated with a high tip density, i.e., tip densities will be zero-inflated.

Value

A list with the following elements:

Nbins

Integer, indicating the number of discrete age bins.

ages

Numeric vector of size Nbins, listing the centres of the age bins.

tip_densities

Numeric vector of size Nbins, listing the tip densities in the corresponding age bins.

node_densities

Numeric vector of size Nbins, listing the node densities in the corresponding age bins.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

count_lineages_through_time

Examples

# generate a random full tree, including all extinct & extant tips
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1), 
                            max_tips=1000, coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# compute node densities, as an estimate for the speciation rate
densities = clade_densities(tree, Nbins=10, normalize=TRUE)

# plot node densities
plot(densities$ages, densities$node_densities, type="l", xlab="age", ylab="node density")

Remove monofurcations from a tree.

Description

Eliminate monofurcations (nodes with only a single child) from a phylogenetic tree, by connecting their incoming and outgoing edge.

Usage

collapse_monofurcations(tree, force_keep_root=TRUE, as_edge_counts=FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

force_keep_root

Logical, indicating whether the root node should always be kept (i.e., even if it only has a single child).

as_edge_counts

Logical, indicating whether all edges should be assumed to have length 1. If TRUE, the outcome is the same as if the tree had no edges.

Details

All tips in the input tree retain their original indices, however the returned tree may include fewer nodes and edges. Edge and node indices may change.

If tree$edge.length is missing, then all edges in the input tree are assumed to have length 1.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tree

A new tree of class "phylo", containing only bifurcations (and multifurcations, if these existed in the input tree). The number of nodes in this tree, Nnodes_new, may be lower than of the input tree.

new2old_node

Integer vector of length Nnodes_new, mapping node indices in the new tree to node indices in the old tree.

Nnodes_removed

Integer. Number of nodes (monofurcations) removed from the tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

multifurcations_to_bifurcations

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1), max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# prune the tree to generate random monofurcations
random_tips = sample.int(n=Ntips, size=0.5 * Ntips, replace=FALSE)
tree = get_subtree_with_tips(tree, only_tips=random_tips, collapse_monofurcations=FALSE)$subtree

# collapse monofurcations
new_tree = collapse_monofurcations(tree)$tree

# print summary of old and new tree
cat(sprintf("Old tree has %d nodes\n",tree$Nnode))
cat(sprintf("New tree has %d nodes\n",new_tree$Nnode))

Collapse nodes of a tree at a phylogenetic resolution.

Description

Given a rooted tree and a phylogenetic resolution threshold, collapse all nodes whose distance to all descending tips does not exceed the threshold (or whose sum of descending edge lengths does not exceed the threshold), into new tips. This function can be used to obtain a "coarser" version of the tree, or to cluster closely related tips into a single tip.

Usage

collapse_tree_at_resolution(tree, 
                            resolution             = 0, 
                            by_edge_count          = FALSE,
                            shorten                = TRUE,
                            rename_collapsed_nodes = FALSE,
                            criterion              = 'max_tip_depth')

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

resolution

Numeric, specifying the phylogenetic resolution at which to collapse the tree. This is the maximum distance a descending tip can have from a node, such that the node is collapsed into a new tip. If set to 0 (default), then only nodes whose descending tips are identical to the node will be collapsed.

by_edge_count

Logical. Instead of considering edge lengths, consider edge counts as phylogenetic distance between nodes and tips. This is the same as if all edges had length equal to 1.

shorten

Logical, indicating whether collapsed nodes should be turned into tips at the same location (thus potentially shortening the tree). If FALSE, then the incoming edge of each collapsed node is extended by some length L, where L is the distance of the node to its farthest descending tip (thus maintaining the height of the tree).

rename_collapsed_nodes

Logical, indicating whether collapsed nodes should be renamed using a representative tip name (the farthest descending tip). See details below.

criterion

Character, specifying the criterion to use for collapsing (i.e. how to interpret resolution). 'max_tip_depth': Collapse nodes based on their maximum distance to any descending tip. 'sum_tip_paths': Collapse nodes based on the sum of descending edges (each edge counted once). 'max_tip_pair_dist': Collapse nodes based on the maximum distance between any pair of descending tips.

Details

The tree is traversed from root to tips and nodes are collapsed into tips as soon as the criterion equals or falls below the resolution threshold.

The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Tip labels and uncollapsed node labels of the collapsed tree are inheritted from the original tree. If rename_collapsed_nodes==FALSE, then labels of collapsed nodes will be the node labels from the original tree (in this case the original tree should include node labels). If rename_collapsed_nodes==TRUE, each collapsed node is given the label of its farthest descending tip. If shorten==TRUE, then edge lengths are the same as in the original tree. If shorten==FALSE, then edges leading into collapsed nodes may be longer than before.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tree

A new rooted tree of class "phylo", containing the collapsed tree.

root_shift

Numeric, indicating the phylogenetic distance between the old and the new root. Will always be non-negative.

collapsed_nodes

Integer vector, listing indices of collapsed nodes in the original tree (subset of 1,..,Nnodes).

farthest_tips

Integer vector of the same length as collapsed_nodes, listing indices of the farthest tips for each collapsed node. Hence, farthest_tips[n] will be the index of a tip in the original tree that descended from node collapsed_nodes[n] and had the greatest distance from that node among all descending tips.

new2old_clade

Integer vector of length equal to the number of tips+nodes in the collapsed tree, with values in 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes, mapping tip/node indices of the collapsed tree to tip/node indices in the original tree.

new2old_edge

Integer vector of length equal to the number of edges in the collapsed tree, with values in 1,..,Nedges, mapping edge indices of the collapsed tree to edge indices in the original tree.

old2new_clade

Integer vector of length equal to the number of tips+nodes in the original tree, mapping tip/node indices of the original tree to tip/node indices in the collapsed tree. Non-mapped tips/nodes (i.e., missing from the collapsed tree) will be represented by zeros.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=1000)$tree

# print number of nodes
cat(sprintf("Simulated tree has %d nodes\n",tree$Nnode))

# collapse any nodes with tip-distances < 20
collapsed = collapse_tree_at_resolution(tree, resolution=20)$tree

# print number of nodes
cat(sprintf("Collapsed tree has %d nodes\n",collapsed$Nnode))

Extract dating anchors for a target tree, using a dated reference tree

Description

Given a reference tree and a target tree, this function maps target nodes to concordant reference nodes when possible, and extracts divergence times of the mapped reference nodes from the reference tree. This function can be used to define secondary dating constraints for a larger target tree, based on a time-calibrated smaller reference tree (Eastman et al. 2013). This only makes sense if the reference tree is time-calibrated. A provided mapping specifies which and how tips in the target tree correspond to tips in the reference tree.

Usage

congruent_divergence_times(reference_tree, target_tree, mapping)

Arguments

reference_tree

A rooted tree object of class "phylo". Usually this tree will be time-calibrated (i.e. edge lengths represent time intervals).

target_tree

A rooted tree object of class "phylo".

mapping

A table mapping a subset of target tips to a subset of reference tips, as described by Eastman et al (2013). Multiple target tips may map to the same reference tip, but not vice versa (i.e. every target tip can appear at most once in the mapping). In general, a tip mapped to in the reference tree is assumed to represent a monophyletic group of tips in the target tree, although this assumption may be violated in practice (Eastman et al. 2013).

The mapping must be in one of the following formats:

Option 1: A 2D integer array of size NM x 2 (with NM being the number of mapped target tips), listing target tip indices mapped to reference tip indices (mapping[m,1] (target tip) –> mapping[m,2] (reference tip)).

Option 2: A 2D character array of size NM x 2, listing target tip labels mapped to reference tip labels.

Option 3: A data frame of size NM x 1, whose row names are target tip labels and whose entries are either integers (reference tip indices) or characters (reference tip labels). This is the format used by geiger::congruify.phylo (v.206).

Option 4: A vector of size NM, whose names are target tip labels and whose entries are either integers (reference tip indices) or characters (reference tip labels).

Details

Both the reference and target tree may include monofurcations and/or multifurcations. In principle, neither of the two trees needs to be ultrametric, although in most applications reference_tree will be ultrametric.

In special cases each reference tip may be found in the target tree, i.e. the reference tree is a subtree of the target tree. This may occur e.g. if a smaller subtree of the target tree has been extracted and dated, and subsequently the larger target tree is to be dated using secondary constraints inferred from the dated subtree.

The function returns a table that maps a subset of target nodes to an equally sized subset of concordant reference nodes. Ages (divergence times) of the mapped reference nodes are extracted and associated with the concordant target nodes.

For bifurcating trees the average time complexity of this function is O(TNtips x log(RNtips) x NM), where TNtips and RNtips are the number of tips in the target and reference tree, respectively. This function is similar to geiger::congruify.phylo (v.206). For large trees, this function tends to be much faster than geiger::congruify.phylo.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

Rnodes

Integer vector of length NC (where NC is the number of concordant node pairs found) and with values in 1,..,RNnodes, listing indices of reference nodes that could be matched with (i.e. were concordant to) a target node. Entries in Rnodes will correspond to entries in Tnodes and ages.

Tnodes

Integer vector of length NC and with values in 1,..,TNnodes, listing indices of target nodes that could be matched with (i.e. were concordant to) a reference node. Entries in Tnodes will correspond to entries in Rnodes and ages.

ages

Numeric vector of length NC, listing divergence times (ages) of the reference nodes listed in Rnodes. These ages can be used as fixed anchors for time-calibrating the target tree using a separate program (such as PATHd8).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. M. Eastman, L. J. Harmon, D. C. Tank (2013). Congruification: support for time scaling large phylogenetic trees. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 4:688-691.

See Also

extend_tree_to_height, date_tree_red, get_tips_for_mrcas, tree_distance

Examples

# generate random tree (target tree)
Ntips = 10000
tree  = castor::generate_random_tree(parameters=list(birth_rate_intercept=1), max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# extract random subtree (reference tree)
Nsubtips    = 10
subtips     = sample.int(n=Ntips,size=Nsubtips,replace=FALSE)
subtreeing  = castor::get_subtree_with_tips(tree, only_tips=subtips)
subtree     = subtreeing$subtree

# map subset of target tips to reference tips
mapping = matrix(c(subtreeing$new2old_tip,(1:Nsubtips)),ncol=2,byrow=FALSE)

# extract divergence times by congruification
congruification = congruent_divergence_times(subtree, tree, mapping)

cat("Concordant target nodes:\n")
print(congruification$target_nodes)

cat("Ages of concordant nodes:\n")
print(congruification$ages)

Generate a congruent homogenous-birth-death-sampling model.

Description

Given a homogenous birth-death-sampling (HBDS) model (or abstract congruence class), obtain the congruent model (or member of the congruence class) with a specific speciation rate λ\lambda, or extinction rate μ\mu, or sampling rate ψ\psi, or effective reproduction ratio ReR_e or removal rate μ+ψ\mu+\psi (aka. "become uninfectious"" rate). All input and output time-profiles are specified as piecewise polynomial curves (splines), defined on a discrete grid of ages. This function allows exploration of a model's congruence class, by obtaining various members of the congruence class depending on the specified λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi, ReR_e or removal rate. For more details on HBDS models and congruence classes see the documentation of simulate_deterministic_hbds.

Usage

congruent_hbds_model(age_grid,
                     PSR,
                     PDR,
                     lambda_psi,
                     lambda             = NULL,
                     mu                 = NULL,
                     psi                = NULL,
                     Reff               = NULL,
                     removal_rate       = NULL,
                     lambda0            = NULL,
                     CSA_ages           = NULL,
                     CSA_pulled_probs   = NULL,
                     CSA_PSRs           = NULL,
                     splines_degree     = 1,
                     ODE_relative_dt    = 0.001,
                     ODE_relative_dy    = 1e-4)

Arguments

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing discrete ages (time before present) on which the various model variables (e.g., λ\lambda, μ\mu etc) are specified. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and must include the present-day (i.e. age 0).

PSR

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid, specifying the pulled speciation rate (PSR) (in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. The PSR is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single number, in which case PSR is assumed to be time-independent.

PDR

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid, specifying the pulled diversification rate (PDR) (in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. The PDR is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). The PDR of a HBDS model is defined as PDR=λμψ+(1/λ)dλ/dtPDR=\lambda-\mu-\psi+(1/\lambda)d\lambda/dt (where tt denotes age). Can also be a single number, in which case PDR is assumed to be time-independent.

lambda_psi

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid, specifying the product of speciation rate and sampling rate (λψ\lambda\psi, in units 1/time^2) at the ages listed in age_grid. λψ\lambda\psi is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single number, in which case λψ\lambda\psi is assumed to be time-independent.

lambda

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid, specifying the speciation rate (λ\lambda, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. The speciation rate is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single number, in which case λ\lambda is assumed to be time-independent. By providing λ\lambda, one can select a specific model from the congruence class. Note that exactly one of lambda, mu, psi, Reff or removal_rate must be provided.

mu

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid, specifying the extinction rate (μ\mu, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. The extinction rate is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single number, in which case μ\mu is assumed to be time-independent. In an epidemiological context, μ\mu typically corresponds to the recovery rate plus the death rate of infected individuals. By providing μ\mu (together with lambda0, see below), one can select a specific model from the congruence class. Note that exactly one of lambda, mu, psi, Reff or removal_rate must be provided.

psi

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid, specifying the (Poissonian) sampling rate (ψ\psi, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. The sampling rate is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single number, in which case ψ\psi is assumed to be time-independent. By providing ψ\psi, one can select a specific model from the congruence class. Note that exactly one of lambda, mu, psi, Reff or removal_rate must be provided.

Reff

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid, specifying the effective reproduction ratio (ReR_e, unitless) at the ages listed in age_grid. The ReR_e is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single number, in which case ReR_e is assumed to be time-independent. By providing ReR_e (together with lambda0, see below), one can select a specific model from the congruence class. Note that exactly one of lambda, mu, psi, Reff or removal_rate must be provided.

removal_rate

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid, specifying the removal rate (μ+ψ\mu+\psi, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. IN an epidemiological context this is also known as "become uninfectious" rate. The removal rate is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single number, in which case the removal rate is assumed to be time-independent. By providing μ+ψ\mu+\psi (together with lambda0, see below), one can select a specific model from the congruence class. Note that exactly one of lambda, mu, psi, Reff or removal_rate must be provided.

lambda0

Numeric, specifying the speciation rate at the present-day (i.e., at age 0). Must be provided if and only if one of mu, Reff or removal_rate is provided.

CSA_ages

Optional numeric vector, listing the ages of concentrated sampling attempts, in ascending order. Concentrated sampling is assumed to occur in addition to any continuous (Poissonian) sampling specified by psi.

CSA_pulled_probs

Optional numeric vector of the same size as CSA_ages, listing pulled sampling probabilities at each concentrated sampling attempt (CSA). Note that in contrast to the sampling rates psi, the CSA_pulled_probs are interpreted as probabilities and must thus be between 0 and 1. CSA_pulled_probs must be provided if and only if CSA_ages is provided.

CSA_PSRs

Optional numeric vector of the same size as CSA_ages, specifying the pulled sampling rate (PSR) during each concentrated sampling attempt. While in principle the PSR is already provided by the argument PSR, the PSR may be non-continuous at CSAs, which makes a representation as piecewise polynomial function difficult; hence, you must explicitly provide the correct PSR at each CSA. CSA_PSRs must be provided if and only if CSA_ages is provided.

splines_degree

Integer, either 0,1,2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the provided time-dependent variables between grid points in age_grid. For example, if splines_degree==1, then the provided PDR, PSR and so on are interpreted as piecewise-linear curves; if splines_degree==2 they are interpreted as quadratic splines; if splines_degree==3 they are interpreted as cubic splines. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on.

ODE_relative_dt

Positive unitless number, specifying the default relative time step for internally used ordinary differential equation solvers. Typical values are 0.01-0.001.

ODE_relative_dy

Positive unitless number, specifying the relative difference between subsequent simulated and interpolated values, in internally used ODE solvers. Typical values are 1e-2 to 1e-5. A smaller ODE_relative_dy increases interpolation accuracy, but also increases memory requirements and adds runtime.

Details

The PDR, PSR and the product λψ\lambda\psi are variables that are invariant across the entire congruence class of an HBDS model, i.e. any two congruent models have the same PSR, PDR and product λψ\lambda\psi. Reciprocally, any HBDS congruence class is fully determined by its PDR, PSR and λψ\lambda\psi. This function thus allows "collapsing" a congruence class down to a single member (a specific HBDS model) by specifying one or more additional variables over time (such as λ\lambda, or ψ\psi, or μ\mu and λ0\lambda_0). Alternatively, this function may be used to obtain alternative models that are congruent to some reference model, for example to explore the robustness of specific epidemiological quantities of interest. The function returns a specific HBDS model in terms of the time profiles of various variables (such as λ\lambda, μ\mu and ψ\psi).

In the current implementation it is assumed that any sampled lineages are immediately removed from the pool, that is, this function cannot accommodate models with a non-zero retention probability upon sampling. This is a common assumption in molecular epidemiology. Note that in this function age always refers to time before present, i.e., present day age is 0, and age increases towards the root.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the calculation was successful. If FALSE, then the returned list includes an additional 'error' element (character) providing a description of the error; all other return variables may be undefined.

valid

Logical, indicating whether the returned model appears to be biologically valid (for example, does not have negative λ\lambda, μ\mu or ψ\psi). In principle, a congruence class may include biologically invalid models, which might be returned depending on the input to congruent_hbds_model. Note that only biologically valid models can be subsequently simulated using simulate_deterministic_hbds.

ages

Numeric vector of size NG, specifying the discrete ages (time before present) on which all returned time-curves are specified. Will always be equal to age_grid.

lambda

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the speciation rates λ\lambda of the returned model at the ages given in ages[].

mu

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the extinction rates μ\mu of the returned model at the ages given in ages[].

psi

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the (Poissonian) sampling rates ψ\psi of the returned model at the ages given in ages[].

lambda_psi

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the product λψ\lambda\psi at the ages given in ages[].

Reff

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the effective reproduction ratio ReR_e of the returned model at the ages given in ages[].

removal_rate

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the removal rate (μ+ψ\mu+\psi, aka. "become uninfectious" rate) of the returned model at the ages given in ages[].

Pmissing

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the probability that a past lineage extant during ages[] will be missing from a tree generated by the model.

CSA_probs

Numeric vector of the same size as CSA_ages, listing the sampling probabilities at each of the CSAs.

CSA_Pmissings

Numeric vector of the same size as CSA_ages, listing the probability that a past lineage extant during each of CSA_ages[] will be missing from a tree generated by the model.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

T. Stadler, D. Kuehnert, S. Bonhoeffer, A. J. Drummond (2013). Birth-death skyline plot reveals temporal changes of epidemic spread in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). PNAS. 110:228-233.

A. MacPherson, S. Louca, A. McLaughlin, J. B. Joy, M. W. Pennell (in review as of 2020). A general birth-death-sampling model for epidemiology and macroevolution. DOI:10.1101/2020.10.10.334383

See Also

generate_tree_hbds, fit_hbds_model_parametric, simulate_deterministic_hbds

Examples

# define an HBDS model with exponentially decreasing speciation/extinction rates
# and constant Poissonian sampling rate psi
oldest_age= 10
age_grid  = seq(from=0,to=oldest_age,by=0.1) # choose a sufficiently fine age grid
lambda    = 1*exp(0.01*age_grid) # define lambda on the age grid
mu        = 0.2*lambda # assume similarly shaped but smaller mu

# simulate deterministic HBD model
# scale LTT such that it is 100 at age 1
sim = simulate_deterministic_hbds(age_grid  = age_grid,
                                  lambda    = lambda,
                                  mu        = mu,
                                  psi       = 0.1,
                                  age0      = 1,
                                  LTT0      = 100)
                                         
# calculate a congruent HBDS model with an alternative sampling rate
# use the previously simulated variables to define the congruence class
new_psi = 0.1*exp(-0.01*sim$ages) # consider a psi decreasing with age
congruent = congruent_hbds_model(age_grid   = sim$ages,
                                 PSR        = sim$PSR,
                                 PDR        = sim$PDR,
                                 lambda_psi = sim$lambda_psi,
                                 psi        = new_psi)
											 
# compare the deterministic LTT of the two models
# to confirm that the models are indeed congruent
if(!congruent$valid){
    cat("WARNING: Congruent model is not biologically valid\n")
}else{
    # simulate the congruent model to get the LTT
    csim = simulate_deterministic_hbds(age_grid = congruent$ages,
                                       lambda   = congruent$lambda,
                                       mu       = congruent$mu,
                                       psi      = congruent$psi,
                                       age0     = 1,
                                       LTT0     = 100)

    # plot deterministic LTT of the original and congruent model
    plot( x = sim$ages, y = sim$LTT, type='l',
          main='dLTT', xlab='age', ylab='lineages', 
          xlim=c(oldest_age,0), col='red')
    lines(x= csim$ages, y=csim$LTT, 
          type='p', pch=21, col='blue')
}

Compute consensus taxonomies across a tree.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and taxonomies for all tips, compute corresponding consensus taxonomies for all nodes in the tree based on their descending tips. The consensus taxonomy of a given node is the longest possible taxonomic path (i.e., to the lowest possible level) such that the taxonomies of all descending tips are nested within that taxonomic path. Some tip taxonomies may be incomplete, i.e., truncated at higher taxonomic levels. In that case, consensus taxonomy building will be conservative, i.e., no assumptions will be made about the missing taxonomic levels.

Usage

consensus_taxonomies(tree, tip_taxonomies = NULL, delimiter = ";")

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

tip_taxonomies

Optional, character vector of length Ntips, listing taxonomic paths for the tips. If NULL, then tip labels in the tree are assumed to be tip taxonomies.

delimiter

Character, the delimiter between taxonomic levels (e.g., ";" for SILVA and Greengenes taxonomies).

Details

Examples:

  • If the descending tips of a node have taxonomies "A;B;C" and "A;B;C;D" and "A;B;C;E", then their consensus taxonomy is "A;B;C".

  • If the descending tips of a node have taxonomies "A;B" and "A;B;C;D" and "A;B;C;E", then their consensus taxonomy is "A;B".

  • If the descending tips of a node have taxonomies "X;B;C" and "Y;B;C", then their consensus taxonomy is "" (i.e., empty).

Value

A character vector of length Nnodes, listing the inferred consensus taxonomies for all nodes in the tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

place_tips_taxonomically

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=0.1), max_tips=7)$tree

# define a character vector storing hypothetical tip taxonomies
tip_taxonomies = c("R;BB;C", "AA;BB;C;DD", "AA;BB;C;E", 
                   "AA;BB", "AA;BB;D", "AA;BB;C;F", "AA;BB;C;X")

# compute consensus taxonomies and store them in the tree as node labels
tree$node.label = castor::consensus_taxonomies(tree, 
                                               tip_taxonomies = tip_taxonomies, 
                                               delimiter = ";")

Calculate phylogenetic depth of a binary trait using the consenTRAIT metric.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and presences/absences of a binary trait for each tip, calculate the mean phylogenetic depth at which the trait is conserved across clades, in terms of the consenTRAIT metric introduced by Martiny et al (2013). This is the mean depth of clades that are positive in the trait (i.e. in which a sufficient fraction of tips exhibits the trait).

Usage

consentrait_depth(tree, 
                  tip_states, 
                  min_fraction        = 0.9, 
                  count_singletons    = TRUE,
                  singleton_resolution= 0,
                  weighted            = FALSE, 
                  Npermutations       = 0)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips indicating absence (value <=0) or presence (value >0) of a particular trait at each tip of the tree. Note that tip_states[i] (where i is an integer index) must correspond to the i-th tip in the tree.

min_fraction

Minimum fraction of tips in a clade exhibiting the trait, for the clade to be considered "positive" in the trait. In the original paper by Martiny et al (2013), this was 0.9.

count_singletons

Logical, specifying whether to include singletons in the statistics (tips positive in the trait, but not part of a larger positive clade). The phylogenetic depth of singletons is taken to be half the length of their incoming edge, as proposed by Martiny et al (2013). If FALSE, singletons are ignored.

singleton_resolution

Numeric, specifying the phylogenetic resolution at which to resolve singletons. Any clade found to be positive in a trait will be considered a singleton if the distance of the clade's root to all descending tips is below this threshold.

weighted

Whether to weight positive clades by their number of positive tips. If FALSE, each positive clades is weighted equally, as proposed by Martiny et al (2013).

Npermutations

Number of random permutations for estimating the statistical significance of the mean trait depth. If zero (default), the statistical significance is not calculated.

Details

This function calculates the "consenTRAIT" metric (or variants thereof) proposed by Martiny et al. (2013) for measuring the mean phylogenetic depth at which a binary trait (e.g. presence/absence of a particular metabolic function) is conserved across clades. A greater mean depth means that the trait tends to be conserved in deeper-rooting clades. In their original paper, Martiny et al. proposed to consider a trait as conserved in a clade (i.e. marking a clade as "positive" in the trait) if at least 90% of the clade's tips exhibit the trait (i.e. are "positive" in the trait). This fraction can be controlled using the min_fraction parameter. The depth of a clade is taken as the average distance of its tips to the clade's root.

Note that the consenTRAIT metric does not treat "presence" and "absence" equally, i.e., if one were to reverse all presences and absences then the consenTRAIT metric will generally have a different value. This is because the focus is on the presence of the trait (e.g., presence of a metabolic function, or presence of a morphological feature).

The default parameters of this function reflect the original choices made by Martiny et al. (2013), however in some cases it may be sensible to adjust them. For example, if you suspect a high risk of false positives in the detection of a trait, it may be worth setting count_singletons to FALSE to avoid skewing the distribution of conservation depths towards shallower depths due to false positives.

The statistical significance of the calculated mean depth, i.e. the probability of encountering such a mean dept or higher by chance, is estimated based on a null model in which each tip is re-assigned a presence or absence of the trait by randomly reshuffling the original tip_states.

The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If tree$edge.length is missing, then every edge is assumed to have length 1.

Value

A list with the following elements:

mean_depth

Mean phylogenetic depth of clades that are positive in the trait.

var_depth

Variance of phylogenetic depths of clades that are positive in the trait.

min_depth

Minimum phylogenetic depth of clades that are positive in the trait.

max_depth

Maximum phylogenetic depth of clades that are positive in the trait.

Npositives

Number of clades that are positive in the trait.

P

Statistical significance (P-value) of mean_depth, under a null model of random trait presences/absences (see details above). This is the probability that, under the null model, the mean_depth would be at least as high as observed in the data.

mean_random_depth

Mean random mean_depth, under a null model of random trait presences/absences (see details above).

positive_clades

Integer vector, listing indices of tips and nodes (from 1 to Ntips+Nnodes) that were found to be positive in the trait and counted towards the statistic.

positives_per_clade

Integer vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, listing the number of descending tips per clade (tip or node) that were positive in the trait.

mean_depth_per_clade

Numeric vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, listing the mean phylogenetic depth of each clade (tip or node), i.e. the average distance to all its descending tips.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

A. C. Martiny, K. Treseder and G. Pusch (2013). Phylogenetic trait conservatism of functional traits in microorganisms. ISME Journal. 7:830-838.

See Also

get_trait_acf, discrete_trait_depth

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=1000)$tree

# simulate binary trait evolution on the tree
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates=2, rate_model="ARD", max_rate=0.1)
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states

# change states from 1/2 to 0/1 (presence/absence)
tip_states = tip_states - 1

# calculate phylogenetic conservatism of trait
results = consentrait_depth(tree, tip_states, count_singletons=FALSE, weighted=TRUE)
cat(sprintf("Mean depth = %g, std = %g\n",results$mean_depth,sqrt(results$var_depth)))

## End(Not run)

Correlations between phylogenetic & geographic distances.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and geographic coordinates (latitudes & longitudes) of each tip, examine the correlation between pairwise phylogenetic and geographic distances of tips. The statistical significance is computed by randomly permuting the tip coordinates, which is essentially a phylogenetic version of the Mantel test and accounts for shared evolutionary history between tips.

Usage

correlate_phylo_geodistances(tree,
                             tip_latitudes,
                             tip_longitudes,
                             correlation_method,
                             max_phylodistance  = Inf,
                             Npermutations      = 1000,
                             alternative        = "right",
                             radius             = 1)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

tip_latitudes

Numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the latitudes (decimal degrees) of the tree's tips. By convention, positive latitudes correspond to the northern hemisphere. Note that tip_latitudes[i] must correspond to the i-th tip in the tree, i.e. as listed in tree$tip.label.

tip_longitudes

Numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the longitudes (decimal degrees) of the tree's tips. By convention, positive longitudes correspond to the eastern hemisphere.

correlation_method

Character, one of "pearson", "spearman" or "kendall".

max_phylodistance

Numeric, maximum phylodistance between tips to consider, in the same units as the tree's edge lengths. If Inf, all tip pairs will be considered.

Npermutations

Integer, number of random permutations to consider for estimating the statistical significance (P value). If 0, the significance will not be computed. A larger number improves accuracy but at the cost of increased computing time.

alternative

Character, one of "two_sided", "right" or "left", specifying which part of the null model's distribution to use as P-value.

radius

Optional numeric, radius to assume for the sphere. If 1, then all geodistances are measured in multiples of the sphere radius. This does not affect the correlation or P-value, but it affects the returned geodistances. Note that Earth's average radius is about 6371 km.

Details

To compute the statistical significance (P value) of the observed correlation C, this function repeatedly randomly permutes the tip coordinates, each time recomputing the corresponding "random" correlation, and then examines the distribution of the random correlations. If alternative="right", the P value is set to the fraction of random correlations equal to or greater than C.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

correlation

Numeric between -1 and 1, the correlation between phylodistances and geodistances.

Npairs

Integer, the number of tip pairs considered.

Pvalue

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated statistical significance of the correlation. Only returned if Npermutations>0.

mean_random_correlation

Numeric between -1 and 1, the mean correlation obtained across all random permutations. Only returned if Npermutations>0.

phylodistances

Numeric vector of length Npairs, listing the pairwise phylodistances between tips, used to compute the correlation.

geodistances

Numeric vector of length Npairs, listing the pairwise geodistances between tips, used to compute the correlation.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

geographic_acf

Examples

# Generate a random tree
Ntips = 50
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate spherical Brownian motion (a dispersal model) on the tree
simul = simulate_sbm(tree, radius=6371, diffusivity=50)

# Analyze correlations between geodistances & phylodistances
coranal = correlate_phylo_geodistances(tree               = tree,
                                       tip_latitudes      = simul$tip_latitudes,
                                       tip_longitudes     = simul$tip_longitudes,
                                       correlation_method = "spearman",
                                       Npermutations      = 100,
                                       max_phylodistance  = 100,
                                       radius             = 6371)
print(coranal$correlation)
print(coranal$Pvalue)
plot(coranal$phylodistances, coranal$geodistances,
     xlab="phylodistance", ylab="geodistance", type="p")

Count number of lineages through time (LTT).

Description

Given a rooted timetree (i.e., a tree whose edge lengths represent time intervals), calculate the number of lineages represented in the tree at various time points, otherwise known as "lineages through time"" (LTT) curve. The root is interpreted as time 0, and the distance of any node or tip from the root is interpreted as time elapsed since the root. Optionally, the slopes and relative slopes of the LTT curve are also returned.

Usage

count_lineages_through_time(  tree, 
                              Ntimes        = NULL, 
                              min_time      = NULL,
                              max_time      = NULL,
                              times         = NULL, 
                              include_slopes= FALSE,
                              ultrametric   = FALSE,
                              degree        = 1,
                              regular_grid  = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo", where edge lengths represent time intervals (or similar).

Ntimes

Integer, number of equidistant time points at which to count lineages. Can also be NULL, in which case times must be provided.

min_time

Minimum time (distance from root) to consider. If NULL, this will be set to the minimum possible (i.e. 0). Only relevant if times==NULL.

max_time

Maximum time (distance from root) to consider. If NULL, this will be set to the maximum possible. Only relevant if times==NULL.

times

Integer vector, listing time points (in ascending order) at which to count lineages. Can also be NULL, in which case Ntimes must be provided.

include_slopes

Logical, specifying whether the slope and the relative slope of the returned clades-per-time-point curve should also be returned.

ultrametric

Logical, specifying whether the input tree is guaranteed to be ultrametric, even in the presence of some numerical inaccuracies causing some tips not have exactly the same distance from the root. If you know the tree is ultrametric, then this option helps the function choose a better time grid for the LTT.

degree

Integer, specifying the "degree" of the LTT curve: LTT(t) will be the number of lineages in the tree at time t that have at least n descending tips in the tree. Typically order=1, which corresponds to the classical LTT curve.

regular_grid

Logical, specifying whether the automatically generated time grid should be regular (equal distances between grid points). This option only matters if times==NULL. If regular_grid==FALSE and times==NULL, the time grid will be irregular, with grid point density being roughly proportional to the square root of the number of lineages at any particular time (i.e., the grid becomes finer towards the tips).

Details

Given a sequence of time points between a tree's root and tips, this function essentially counts how many edges "cross" each time point (if degree==1). The slopes and relative slopes are calculated from this curve using finite differences.

Note that the classical LTT curve (degree=1) is non-decreasing over time, whereas higher-degree LTT's may be decreasing as well as increasing over time.

If tree$edge.length is missing, then every edge in the tree is assumed to be of length 1. The tree may include multifurcations as well as monofurcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The tree need not be ultrametric, although in general this function only makes sense for dated trees (e.g., where edge lengths are time intervals or similar).

Either Ntimes or times must be non-NULL, but not both. If times!=NULL, then min_time and max_time must be NULL.

Value

A list with the following elements:

Ntimes

Integer, indicating the number of returned time points. Equal to the provided Ntimes if applicable.

times

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the time points at which the LTT was calculated. If times was provided as an argument to the function, then this will be the same as provided, otherwise times will be listed in ascending order.

ages

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the ages (time before the youngest tip) corresponding to the returned times[].

lineages

Integer vector of size Ntimes, listing the number of lineages represented in the tree at each time point that have at least degree descending tips, i.e. the LTT curve.

slopes

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the slopes (finite-difference approximation of 1st derivative) of the LTT curve.

relative_slopes

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the relative slopes of the LTT curve, i.e. slopes divided by a sliding-window average of lineages.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1), max_tips=1000)$tree

# calculate classical LTT curve
results = count_lineages_through_time(tree, Ntimes=100)

# plot classical LTT curve
plot(results$times, results$lineages, type="l", xlab="time", ylab="# clades")

Count descending tips.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, count the number of tips descending (directy or indirectly) from each node.

Usage

count_tips_per_node(tree)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

Details

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges.

Value

An integer vector of size Nnodes, with the i-th entry being the number of tips descending (directly or indirectly) from the i-th node.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_subtree_at_node

Examples

# generate a tree using a simple speciation model 
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=1000)$tree

# count number of tips descending from each node
tips_per_node = count_tips_per_node(tree);

# plot histogram of tips-per-node
barplot(table(tips_per_node[tips_per_node<10]), xlab="# tips", ylab="# nodes")

Count the number of state transitions between tips or nodes.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, one or more pairs of tips and/or nodes, and the state of some discrete trait at each tip and node, calculate the number of state transitions along the shortest path between each pair of tips/nodes.

Usage

count_transitions_between_clades(tree, A, B, states, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

A

An integer vector or character vector of size Npairs, specifying the first of the two members of each pair of tips/nodes. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes). If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names.

B

An integer vector or character vector of size Npairs, specifying the second of the two members of each pair of tips/nodes. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes). If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names.

states

Integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing the discrete state of each tip and node in the tree. The order of entries must match the order of tips and nodes in the tree; this requirement is only verified if states has names and check_input==TRUE.

check_input

Logical, whether to perform basic validations of the input data. If you know for certain that your input is valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation time.

Details

The discrete state must be represented by integers (both negatives and positives are allowed); characters and other data types are not allowed. If tip/node states are originally encoded as characters rather than integers, you can use map_to_state_space to convert these to integers (for example “male” & “female” may be represented as 1 & 2). Also note that a state must be provided for each tip and ancestral node, not just for the tips. If you only know the states of tips, you can use an ancestral state reconstruction tool to estimate ancestral states first.

The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If A and/or B is a character vector, then tree$tip.label must exist. If node names are included in A and/or B, then tree$node.label must also exist.

Value

An integer vector of size Npairs, with the i-th element being the number of state transitions between tips/nodes A[i] and B[i] (along their shortest connecting path).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# pick 3 random pairs of tips or nodes
Npairs = 3
A = sample.int(n=(Ntips+tree$Nnode), size=Npairs, replace=FALSE)
B = sample.int(n=(Ntips+tree$Nnode), size=Npairs, replace=FALSE)

# assign a random state to each tip & node in the tree
# consider a binary trait
states = sample.int(n=2, size=Ntips+tree$Nnode, replace=TRUE)

# calculate number of transitions for each tip pair
Ntransitions = count_transitions_between_clades(tree, A, B, states=states)

Date a tree based on relative evolutionary divergences.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a single node ('anchor') of known age (distance from the present), rescale all edge lengths so that the tree becomes ultrametric and edge lengths correspond to time intervals. The function is based on relative evolutionary divergences (RED), which measure the relative position of each node between the root and its descending tips (Parks et al. 2018). If no anchor node is provided, the root is simply assumed to have age 1. This function provides a heuristic quick-and-dirty way to date a phylogenetic tree.

Usage

date_tree_red(tree, anchor_node = NULL, anchor_age = 1)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

anchor_node

Integer, ranging between 1 and Nnodes. Index of the node to be used as dating anchor. If NULL, the tree's root is used as anchor.

anchor_age

Positive numeric. Age of the anchor node.

Details

The RED of a node measures its relative placement between the root and the node's descending tips (Parks et al. 2018). The root's RED is set to 0. Traversing from root to tips (preorder traversal), for each node the RED is set to P+(a/(a+b))(1P)P+(a/(a+b))\cdot(1-P), where PP is the RED of the node's parent, aa is the edge length connecting the node to its parent, and bb is the average distance from the node to its descending tips. The RED of all tips is set to 1.

For each edge, the RED difference between child & parent is used to set the new length of that edge, multiplied by some common scaling factor to translate RED units into time units. The scaling factor is chosen such that the new distance of the anchor node from its descending tips equals anchor_age. All tips will have age 0. The topology of the dated tree, as well as tip/node/edge indices, remain unchanged.

This function provides a heuristic approach to making a tree ultrametric, and has not been derived from a specific evolutionary model. In particular, its statistical properties are unknown to the author.

The time complexity of this function is O(Nedges). The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If tree$edge.length is NULL, then all edges in the input tree are assumed to have length 1.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the dating was successful. If FALSE, all other return values (except for error) may be undefined.

tree

A new rooted tree of class "phylo", representing the dated tree.

REDs

Numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing the RED of each node in the input tree.

error

Character, listing any error message if success==FALSE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

D. H. Parks, M. Chuvochina et al. (2018). A proposal for a standardized bacterial taxonomy based on genome phylogeny. bioRxiv 256800. DOI:10.1101/256800

See Also

congruent_divergence_times

Examples

# generate a random non-ultrametric tree
params = list(birth_rate_intercept=1, death_rate_intercept=0.8)
tree = generate_random_tree(params, max_time=1000, coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# make ultrametric, by setting the root to 2 million years
dated_tree = date_tree_red(tree, anchor_age=2e6)

Calculate phylogenetic depth of a discrete trait.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and the state of a discrete trait at each tip, calculate the mean phylogenetic depth at which the trait is conserved across clades, using a modification of the consenTRAIT metric introduced by Martiny et al (2013). This is the mean depth of clades that are "maximally uniform" in the trait (see below for details).

Usage

discrete_trait_depth(tree, 
                     tip_states, 
                     min_fraction         = 0.9, 
                     count_singletons     = TRUE,
                     singleton_resolution = 0,
                     weighted             = FALSE, 
                     Npermutations        = 0)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A vector of size Ntips specifying the state at each tip. Note that tip_states[i] (where i is an integer index) must correspond to the i-th tip in the tree. This vector may be of any base data type, although character or integer are the most typical types.

min_fraction

Minimum fraction of tips in a clade that must have the dominant state, for the clade to be considered "uniform" in the trait.

count_singletons

Logical, specifying whether to consider singleton clades in the statistics (e.g., tips not part of a larger uniform clade). The phylogenetic depth of singletons is taken to be half the length of their incoming edge, as proposed by Martiny et al (2013). If FALSE, singletons are ignored. If you suspect a high risk of false positives in the detection of a trait, it may be worth setting count_singletons to FALSE to avoid skewing the distribution of conservation depths towards shallower depths due to false positives.

singleton_resolution

Numeric, specifying the phylogenetic resolution at which to resolve singletons. A clade will be considered a singleton if the distance of the clade's root to all descending tips is below this threshold.

weighted

Whether to weight uniform clades by their number of tips in the dominant state. If FALSE, each uniform clades is weighted equally.

Npermutations

Number of random permutations for estimating the statistical significance of the mean trait depth. If zero (default), the statistical significance is not calculated.

Details

The depth of a clade is defined as the average distance of its tips to the clade's root. The "dominant" state of a clade is defined as the most frequent state among all of the clade's tips. A clade is considered "uniform" in the trait if the frequency of its dominant state is equal to or greater than min_fraction. The clade is "maximally uniform" if it is uniform and not descending from another uniform clade. The mean depth of the trait is defined as the average phylogenetic depth of all considered maximal uniform clades (whether a maximally uniform clade is considered in this statistic depends on count_singletons and singleton_resolution). A greater mean depth means that the trait tends to be conserved in deeper-rooting clades.

This function implements a modification of the "consenTRAIT" metric proposed by Martiny et al. (2013) for measuring the mean phylogenetic depth at which a binary trait is conserved across clades. Note that the original consenTRAIT metric by Martiny et al. (2013) does not treat the two states of a binary trait ("presence" and "absence") equally, whereas the function discrete_trait_depth does. If you want the original consenTRAIT metric for a binary trait, see the function consentrait_depth.

The statistical significance of the calculated mean depth, i.e. the probability of encountering such a mean dept or higher by chance, is estimated based on a null model in which each tip is re-assigned a state by randomly reshuffling the original tip_states. A low P value indicates that the trait exhibits a phylogenetic signal, whereas a high P value means that there is insufficient evidence in the data to suggest a phylogenetic signal (i.e., the trait's phylogenetic conservatism is indistinguishable from the null model of zero conservatism).

The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If tree$edge.length is missing, then every edge is assumed to have length 1.

Value

A list with the following elements:

unique_states

Vector of the same type as tip_states and of length Nstates, listing the unique possible states of the trait.

mean_depth

Numeric, specifying the mean phylogenetic depth of the trait, i.e., the mean depth of considered maximally uniform clades.

var_depth

Numeric, specifying the variance of phylogenetic depths of considered maximally uniform clades.

min_depth

Numeric, specifying the minimum phylogenetic depth of considered maximally uniform clades.

max_depth

Numeric, specifying the maximum phylogenetic depth of considered maximally uniform clades.

Nmax_uniform

Number of considered maximal uniform clades.

mean_depth_per_state

Numeric vector of size Nstates. Mean depth of considered maximally uniform clades, separately for each state and in the same order as unique_states. Hence, mean_depth_per_state[s] lists the mean depth of considered maximally uniform clades whose dominant state is unique_states[s].

var_depth_per_state

Numeric vector of size Nstates. Variance of depths of considered maximally uniform clades, separately for each state and in the same order as unique_states

min_depth_per_state

Numeric vector of size Nstates. Minimum phylogenetic depth of considered maximally uniform clades, separately for each state and in the same order as unique_states

max_depth_per_state

Numeric vector of size Nstates. Maximum phylogenetic depth of considered maximally uniform clades, separately for each state and in the same order as unique_states

Nmax_uniform_per_state

Integer vector of size Nstates. Number of considered maximally uniform clades, seperately for each state and in the same order as unique_states

P

Statistical significance (P-value) of mean_depth, under a null model of random tip states (see details above). This is the probability that, under the null model, the mean_depth would be at least as high as observed in the data.

mean_random_depth

Mean random mean_depth, under the null model of random tip states (see details above).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

A. C. Martiny, K. Treseder and G. Pusch (2013). Phylogenetic trait conservatism of functional traits in microorganisms. ISME Journal. 7:830-838.

See Also

get_trait_acf, consentrait_depth

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=1000)$tree

# simulate discrete trait evolution on the tree
# consider a trait with 3 discrete states
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates=3, rate_model="ARD", max_rate=0.1)
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states

# calculate phylogenetic conservatism of trait
results = discrete_trait_depth(tree, tip_states, count_singletons=FALSE, weighted=TRUE)
cat(sprintf("Mean depth = %g, std = %g\n",results$mean_depth,sqrt(results$var_depth)))

## End(Not run)

Evaluate a scalar spline at arbitrary locations.

Description

Given a natural spline function Y:RRY:\R\to\R, defined as a series of Y values on a discrete X grid, evaluate its values (or derivative) at arbitrary X points. Supported splines degrees are 0 (Y is piecewise constant), 1 (piecewise linear), 2 (piecewise quadratic) and 3 (piecewise cubic).

Usage

evaluate_spline(Xgrid, 
                Ygrid,
                splines_degree,
                Xtarget,
                extrapolate = "const",
                derivative  = 0)

Arguments

Xgrid

Numeric vector, listing x-values in ascending order.

Ygrid

Numeric vector of the same length as Xgrid, listing the values of Y on Xgrid.

splines_degree

Integer, either 0, 1, 2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the spline curve Y between grid points. For example, 0 means Y is piecewise constant, 1 means Y is piecewise linear and so on.

Xtarget

Numeric vector, listing arbitrary X values on which to evaluate Y.

extrapolate

Character, specifying how to extrapolate Y beyond Xgrid if needed. Available options are "const" (i.e. use the value of Y on the nearest Xgrid point) or "splines" (i.e. use the polynomial coefficients from the nearest grid point).

derivative

Integer, specifying which derivative to return. To return the spline's value, set derivative=0. Currently only the options 0,1,2 are supported.

Details

Spline functions are returned by some of castor's fitting routines, so evaluate_spline is meant to aid with the evaluation and plotting of such functions. A spline function of degree D1D\geq1 has continuous derivatives up to degree D1D-1. The function evaluate_spline is much more efficient if Xtarget is monotonically increasing or decreasing.

This function is used to evaluate the spline's values at arbitrary points. To obtain the spline's polynomial coefficients, use spline_coefficients.

Value

A numeric vector of the same length as Xtarget, listing the values (or derivatives, if derivative>0) of Y on Xtarget.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

spline_coefficients

Examples

# specify Y on a coarse X grid
Xgrid = seq(from=0,to=10,length.out=10)
Ygrid = sin(Xgrid)

# define a fine grid of target X values
Xtarget = seq(from=0,to=10,length.out=1000)

# evaluate Y on Xtarget, either as piecewise linear or piecewise cubic function
Ytarget_lin = evaluate_spline(Xgrid,Ygrid,splines_degree=1,Xtarget=Xtarget)
Ytarget_cub = evaluate_spline(Xgrid,Ygrid,splines_degree=3,Xtarget=Xtarget)

# plot both the piecewise linear and piecewise cubic curves
plot(x=Xtarget, y=Ytarget_cub, type='l', col='red', xlab='X', ylab='Y')
lines(x=Xtarget, y=Ytarget_lin, type='l', col='blue', xlab='X', ylab='Y')

Place queries on a tree from a jplace file.

Description

Given a jplace file (e.g., as generated by pplacer or EPA-NG), construct an expanded tree consisting of the original reference tree and additional tips representing the placed query sequences. The reference tree and placements are loaded from the jplace file. If multiple placements are listed for a query, this function can either add the best (maximum-likelihood) placement or all listed placements.

Usage

expanded_tree_from_jplace(file_path,
                          only_best_placements  = TRUE,
                          max_names_per_query   = 1)

Arguments

file_path

Character, the path to the input jplace file.

only_best_placements

Logical, only keep the best placement of each query, i.e., the placement with maximum likelihood.

max_names_per_query

Positive integer, maximum number of sequence names to keep from each query. Only relevant if queries in the jplace file include multiple sequence names (these typically represent identical sequences). If greater than 1, and a query includes multiple sequence names, then each of these sequence names will be added as a tip to the tree.

Details

This function assumes version 3 of the jplace file format, as defined by Matsen et al. (2012).

Value

A named list with the following elements:

tree

Object of class "phylo", the extended tree constructed by adding the placements on the reference tree.

placed_tips

Integer vector, specifying which tips in the returned tree correspond to placements.

reference_tree

Object of class "phylo", the original reference tree loaded from the jplace file. This will be a subtree of tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Frederick A. Matsen et al. (2012). A format for phylogenetic placements. PLOS One. 7:e31009

See Also

place_tips_taxonomically

Examples

## Not run: 
# load jplace file and create expanded tree
J = expanded_tree_from_jplace("epa_ng_output.jplace")

# save the reference and expanded tree as Newick files
write_tree(J$reference_tree, file="reference.tre")
write_tree(J$tree, file="expanded.tre")

## End(Not run)

Expected distances traversed by a Spherical Brownian Motion.

Description

Given a Spherical Brownian Motion (SBM) process with constant diffusivity, compute the expected geodesic distance traversed over specific time intervals. This quantity may be used as a measure for how fast a lineage disperses across the globe over time.

Usage

expected_distances_sbm(diffusivity,
                       radius,
                       deltas)

Arguments

diffusivity

Numeric, the diffusivity (aka. diffusion coefficient) of the SBM. The units of the diffusivity must be consistent with the units used for specifying the radius and time intervals (deltas); for example, if radius is in km and deltas are in years, then diffusivity must be specified in km^2/year.

radius

Positive numeric, the radius of the sphere.

deltas

Numeric vector, listing time intervals for which to compute the expected geodesic distances.

Details

This function returns expected geodesic distances (i.e. accounting for spherical geometry) for a diffusion process on a sphere, with isotropic and homogeneous diffusivity.

Value

A non-negative numeric vector of the same length as deltas, specifying the expected geodesic distance for each time interval in deltas.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

S. Louca (2021). Phylogeographic estimation and simulation of global diffusive dispersal. Systematic Biology. 70:340-359.

See Also

fit_sbm_const

Examples

# compute the expected geodistance (in km) after 100 and 1000 years
# assuming a diffusivity of 20 km^2/year
expected_distances = expected_distances_sbm(diffusivity = 20,
                                            radius      = 6371,
                                            deltas      = c(100,1000))

Exponentiate a matrix.

Description

Calculate the exponential exp(TA)\exp(T\cdot A) of some quadratic real-valued matrix A for one or more scalar scaling factors T.

Usage

exponentiate_matrix(A, scalings=1, max_absolute_error=1e-3, 
                    min_polynomials=1, max_polynomials=1000)

Arguments

A

A real-valued quadratic matrix of size N x N.

scalings

Vector of real-valued scalar scaling factors T, for each of which the exponential exp(TA)\exp(T\cdot A) should be calculated.

max_absolute_error

Maximum allowed absolute error for the returned approximations. A smaller allowed error implies a greater computational cost as more matrix polynomials need to be included (see below). The returned approximations may have a greater error if the parameter max_polynomials is set too low.

min_polynomials

Minimum number of polynomials to include in the approximations (see equation below), even if max_absolute_error may be satisfied with fewer polynomials. If you don't know how to choose this, in most cases the default is fine. Note that regardless of min_polynomials and max_absolute_error, the number of polynomials used will not exceed max_polynomials.

max_polynomials

Maximum allowed number of polynomials to include in the approximations (see equation below). Meant to provide a safety limit for the amount of memory and the computation time required. For example, a value of 1000 means that up to 1000 matrices (powers of A) of size N x N may be computed and stored temporarily in memory. Note that if max_polynomials is too low, the requested accuracy (via max_absolute_error) may not be achieved. That said, for large trees more memory may be required to store the actual result rather than the intermediate polynomials, i.e. for purposes of saving RAM it doesn't make much sense to choose max_polynomials much smaller than the length of scalings.

Details

Discrete character evolution Markov models often involve repeated exponentiations of the same transition matrix along each edge of the tree (i.e. with the scaling T being the edge length). Matrix exponentiation can become a serious computational bottleneck for larger trees or large matrices (i.e. spanning multiple discrete states). This function pre-calculates polynomials Ap/p!A^p/p! of the matrix, and then uses linear combinations of the same polynomials for each requested T:

exp(TA)=p=0PTpApp!+...\exp(T\cdot A) = \sum_{p=0}^P T^p\frac{A^p}{p!} + ...

This function thus becomes very efficient when the number of scaling factors is large (e.g. >10,000). The number of polynomials included is determined based on the specified max_absolute_error, and based on the largest (by magnitude) scaling factor requested. The function utilizes the balancing algorithm proposed by James et al (2014, Algorithm 3) and the scaling & squaring method (Moler and Van Loan, 2003) to improve the conditioning of the matrix prior to exponentiation.

Value

A 3D numeric matrix of size N x N x S, where N is the number of rows & column of the input matrix A and S is the length of scalings. The [r,c,s]-th element of this matrix is the entry in the r-th row and c-th column of exp(scalings[s]A)\exp(scalings[s]\cdot A).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

R. James, J. Langou and B. R. Lowery (2014). On matrix balancing and eigenvector computation. arXiv:1401.5766

C. Moler and C. Van Loan (2003). Nineteen dubious ways to compute the exponential of a matrix, twenty-five years later. SIAM Review. 45:3-49.

Examples

# create a random 5 x 5 matrix
A = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates=5, rate_model="ER")

# calculate exponentials exp(0.1*A) and exp(10*A)
exponentials = exponentiate_matrix(A, scalings=c(0.1,10))

# print 1st exponential: exp(0.1*A)
print(exponentials[,,1])

# print 2nd exponential: exp(10*A)
print(exponentials[,,2])

Extend a rooted tree up to a specific height.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a specific distance from the root (“new height”), elongate terminal edges (i.e. leading into tips) as needed so that all tips have a distance from the root equal to the new height. If a tip already extends beyond the specified new height, its incoming edge remains unchanged.

Usage

extend_tree_to_height(tree, new_height=NULL)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

new_height

Numeric, specifying the phylogenetic distance from the root to which tips are to be extended. If NULL or negative, then it is set to the maximum distance of any tip from the root.

Details

The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). All tip, edge and node indices remain unchanged. This function provides a quick-and-dirty way to make a tree ultrametric, or to correct small numerical inaccuracies in supposed-to-be ultrametric trees.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tree

A new rooted tree of class "phylo", representing the extended tree.

max_extension

Numeric. The largest elongation added to a terminal edge.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

trim_tree_at_height

Examples

# generate a random non-ultrametric tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1,death_rate_intercept=0.5),
                            max_time=1000,
                            coalescent=FALSE)$tree
                            
# print min & max distance from root
span = get_tree_span(tree)
cat(sprintf("Min & max tip height = %g & %g\n",span$min_distance,span$max_distance))

# make tree ultrametric by extending terminal edges
extended = extend_tree_to_height(tree)$tree

# print new min & max distance from root
span = get_tree_span(extended)
cat(sprintf("Min & max tip height = %g & %g\n",span$min_distance,span$max_distance))

Extract tips representing a tree's deep splits.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, extract a subset of tips representing the tree's deepest splits (nodes), thus obtaining a rough "frame" of the tree. For example, if Nsplits=1 and the tree is bifurcating, then two tips will be extracted representing the two clades splitting at the root.

Usage

extract_deep_frame(tree,
                   Nsplits    = 1,
                   only_tips  = FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

Nsplits

Strictly positive integer, specifying the maximum number of splits to descend from the root. A larger value generally implies that more tips will be extracted, representing a larger number of splits.

only_tips

Boolean, specifying whether to only return the subset of extracted tips, rather than the subtree spanned by those tips. If FALSE, a subtree is returned in addition to the tips (this comes at a computational cost).

Details

The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). No guarantee is made as to the precise subset of tips extracted.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

tips

Integer vector with values from 1 to Ntips, listing the indices of the extracted tips.

subtree

A new tree of class "phylo", the subtree spanned by the extracted tips. Only included if only_tips==FALSE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_pairwise_mrcas, get_tips_for_mrcas

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=0.1),Ntips)$tree

# extract a subtree representing the deep splits
subtree = extract_deep_frame(tree, Nsplits=3)$subtree

Extract tree constraints in FastTree alignment format.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, extract binary constraints in FastTree alignment format. Every internal bifurcating node with more than 2 descending tips will constitute an separate constraint.

Usage

extract_fasttree_constraints(tree)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

Details

This function can be used to define constraints based on a backbone subtree, to be used to generate a larger tree using FastTree (as of v2.1.11). Only bifurcating nodes with at least 3 descending tips are used as constraints.

The constraints are returned as a 2D matrix; the actual fasta file with the constraint alignments can be written easily from this matrix. For more details on FastTree constraints see the original FastTree documentation.

Value

A list with the following elements:

Nconstraints

Integer, specifying the number of constraints extracted.

constraints

2D character matrix of size Ntips x Nconstraints, with values '0', '1' or '-', specifying which side ("left" or "right") of a constraint (node) each tip is found on.

constraint2node

Integer vector of size Nconstraints, with values in 1,..,Nnodes, specifying the original node index used to define each constraint.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate a simple rooted tree, with tip names tip.1, tip.2, ...
Ntips = 10
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                             max_tips=Ntips,
                             tip_basename="tip.")$tree

# extract constraints
constraints = castor::extract_fasttree_constraints(tree)$constraints

# print constraints to screen in fasta format
cat(paste(sapply(1:Ntips, 
    FUN=function(tip) sprintf(">%s\n%s\n",tree$tip.label[tip],
    paste(as.character(constraints[tip,]),collapse=""))),collapse=""))

Extract a subtree spanning tips within a certain neighborhood.

Description

Given a rooted tree and a focal tip, extract a subtree comprising various representative nodes and tips in the vicinity of the focal tip using a heuristic algorithm. This may be used for example to display closely related taxa from a reference tree.

Usage

extract_tip_neighborhood(tree, 
                   focal_tip,
                   Nbackward,
                   Nforward,
                   force_tips 		= NULL,
                   include_subtree 	= TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

focal_tip

Either a character, specifying the name of the focal tip, or an integer between 1 and Ntips, specifying the focal tip's index.

Nbackward

Integer >=1, specifying how many splits backward (towards the root) to explore. A larger value of Nbackward will generally lead to a larger extracted subtree (i.e., including deeper splits).

Nforward

Non-negative integer, specifying how many splits forward (towards the tips) to explore. A larger value of Nforward will generally lead to a larger extracted subtree (i.e., including more representative tips from each sister branch).

force_tips

Optional integer or character list, specifying indices or names of tips to force-include in any case.

include_subtree

Logical, whether to actually extract the subtree, rather than just returning the inferred neighbor tips.

Details

The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The input tree must be rooted at some node for technical reasons (see function root_at_node), but the choice of the root node does not influence which tips are extracted.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

neighbor_tips

Integer vector with values in 1,..,Ntips, specifying which tips were found to be neighbors of the focal tip.

subtree

A new tree of class "phylo", containing a subset of the tips and nodes in the vicinity of the focal tip. Only returned if include_subtree=TRUE.

new2old_tip

Integer vector of length Ntips_extracted (=number of tips in the extracted subtree) with values in 1,..,Ntips, mapping tip indices of the extracted subtree to tip indices in the original tree. In particular, tree$tip.label[new2old_tip] will be equal to subtree$tip.label. Only returned if include_subtree=TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_subtree_with_tips

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 50
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=0.1),
                             max_tips = Ntips,
                             tip_basename="tip.")$tree

# extract a subtree in the vicinity of a focal tip
subtree = extract_tip_neighborhood(tree, 
                                   focal_tip="tip.39",
                                   Nbackward=5,
                                   Nforward=2)$subtree

Extract a subtree spanning tips within a certain radius.

Description

Given a rooted tree, a focal tip and a phylogenetic (patristic) distance radius, extract a subtree comprising all tips located within the provided radius from the focal tip.

Usage

extract_tip_radius(tree, 
                   focal_tip,
                   radius,
                   include_subtree = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

focal_tip

Either a character, specifying the name of the focal tip, or an integer between 1 and Ntips, specifying the focal tip's index.

radius

Non-negative numeric, specifying the patristic distance radius to consider around the focal tip.

include_subtree

Logical, whether to actually extract the subtree, rather than just returning the inferred within-radius tips.

Details

The "patristic distance" between two tips and/or nodes is the shortest cumulative branch length that must be traversed along the tree in order to reach one tip/node from the other. If tree$edge.length is missing, then each edge is assumed to be of length 1.

The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The input tree must be rooted at some node for technical reasons (see function root_at_node), but the choice of the root node does not influence which tips are extracted.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

radius_tips

Integer vector with values in 1,..,Ntips, specifying which tips were found to be within the specified radius of the focal tip.

subtree

A new tree of class "phylo", containing only the tips within the specified radius from the focal tip, and the nodes & edges connecting those tips to the root. Only returned if include_subtree=TRUE.

new2old_tip

Integer vector of length Ntips_extracted (=number of tips in the extracted subtree, i.e., within the specified distance radius from the focal tip) with values in 1,..,Ntips, mapping tip indices of the extracted subtree to tip indices in the original tree. In particular, tree$tip.label[new2old_tip] will be equal to subtree$tip.label. Only returned if include_subtree=TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_all_distances_to_tip

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 50
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=0.1),
                             max_tips = Ntips,
                             tip_basename="tip.")$tree

# extract all tips within radius 50 from a focal tip
subtree = extract_tip_radius(tree, 
                             focal_tip="tip.39",
                             radius=50)$subtree

Find the two most distant tips in a tree.

Description

Given a phylogenetic tree, find the two most phylogenetically distant tips (to each other) in the tree.

Usage

find_farthest_tip_pair(tree, as_edge_counts = FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". While the tree must be rooted for technical reasons, the outcome does not actually depend on the rooting.

as_edge_counts

Logical, specifying whether to count phylogenetic distance in terms of edge counts instead of cumulative edge lengths. This is the same as setting all edge lengths to 1.

Details

If tree$edge.length is missing or NULL, then each edge is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

tip1

An integer between 1 and Ntips, specifying the first of the two most distant tips.

tip2

An integer between 1 and Ntips, specifying the second of the two most distant tips.

distance

Numeric, specifying the phylogenetic (patristic) distance between the farthest_tip1 and farthest_tip2.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

find_nearest_tips, find_farthest_tips

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
parameters = list(birth_rate_intercept=1,death_rate_intercept=0.9)
tree = generate_random_tree(parameters,Ntips,coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# find farthest pair of tips
results = find_farthest_tip_pair(tree)

# print results
cat(sprintf("Tip %d and %d have distance %g\n",
            results$tip1,results$tip2,results$distance))

Find farthest tip to each tip & node of a tree.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a subset of potential target tips, for each tip and node in the tree find the farthest target tip. The set of target tips can also be taken as the whole set of tips in the tree.

Usage

find_farthest_tips( tree, 
                    only_descending_tips = FALSE, 
                    target_tips          = NULL, 
                    as_edge_counts       = FALSE, 
                    check_input          = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

only_descending_tips

A logical indicating whether the farthest tip to a node or tip should be chosen from its descending tips only. If FALSE, then the whole set of possible target tips is considered.

target_tips

Optional integer vector or character vector listing the subset of target tips to restrict the search to. If an integer vector, this should list tip indices (values in 1,..,Ntips). If a character vector, it should list tip names (in this case tree$tip.label must exist). If target_tips is NULL, then all tips of the tree are considered as target tips.

as_edge_counts

Logical, specifying whether to count phylogenetic distance in terms of edge counts instead of cumulative edge lengths. This is the same as setting all edge lengths to 1.

check_input

Logical, whether to perform basic validations of the input data. If you know for certain that your input is valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation time.

Details

If only_descending_tips is TRUE, then only descending target tips are considered when searching for the farthest target tip of a node/tip. In that case, if a node/tip has no descending target tip, its farthest target tip is set to NA. If tree$edge.length is missing or NULL, then each edge is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A list with the following elements:

farthest_tip_per_tip

An integer vector of size Ntips, listing the farthest target tip for each tip in the tree. Hence, farthest_tip_per_tip[i] is the index of the farthest tip (from the set of target tips), with respect to tip i (where i=1,..,Ntips). Some values may appear multiple times in this vector, if multiple tips share the same farthest target tip.

farthest_tip_per_node

An integer vector of size Nnodes, listing the index of the farthest target tip for each node in the tree. Hence, farthest_tip_per_node[i] is the index of the farthest tip (from the set of target tips), with respect to node i (where i=1,..,Nnodes). Some values may appear multiple times in this vector, if multiple nodes share the same farthest target tip.

farthest_distance_per_tip

Integer vector of size Ntips. Phylogenetic ("patristic") distance of each tip in the tree to its farthest target tip. If only_descending_tips was set to TRUE, then farthest_distance_per_tip[i] will be set to infinity for any tip i that is not a target tip.

farthest_distance_per_node

Integer vector of size Nnodes. Phylogenetic ("patristic") distance of each node in the tree to its farthest target tip. If only_descending_tips was set to TRUE, then farthest_distance_per_node[i] will be set to infinity for any node i that has no descending target tips.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

M. G. I. Langille, J. Zaneveld, J. G. Caporaso et al (2013). Predictive functional profiling of microbial communities using 16S rRNA marker gene sequences. Nature Biotechnology. 31:814-821.

See Also

find_nearest_tips

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
parameters = list(birth_rate_intercept=1,death_rate_intercept=0.9)
tree = generate_random_tree(parameters,Ntips,coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# pick a random set of "target" tips
target_tips = sample.int(n=Ntips, size=5, replace=FALSE)

# find farthest target tip to each tip & node in the tree
results = find_farthest_tips(tree, target_tips=target_tips)

# plot histogram of distances to target tips (across all tips of the tree)
distances = results$farthest_distance_per_tip
hist(distances, breaks=10, xlab="farthest distance", ylab="number of tips", prob=FALSE);

Find nearest tip to each tip & node of a tree.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a subset of potential target tips, for each tip and node in the tree find the nearest target tip. The set of target tips can also be taken as the whole set of tips in the tree.

Usage

find_nearest_tips(tree, 
                  only_descending_tips = FALSE, 
                  target_tips          = NULL, 
                  as_edge_counts       = FALSE, 
                  check_input          = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

only_descending_tips

A logical indicating whether the nearest tip to a node or tip should be chosen from its descending tips only. If FALSE, then the whole set of possible target tips is considered.

target_tips

Optional integer vector or character vector listing the subset of target tips to restrict the search to. If an integer vector, this should list tip indices (values in 1,..,Ntips). If a character vector, it should list tip names (in this case tree$tip.label must exist). If target_tips is NULL, then all tips of the tree are considered as target tips.

as_edge_counts

Logical, specifying whether to count phylogenetic distance in terms of edge counts instead of cumulative edge lengths. This is the same as setting all edge lengths to 1.

check_input

Logical, whether to perform basic validations of the input data. If you know for certain that your input is valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation time.

Details

Langille et al. (2013) introduced the Nearest Sequenced Taxon Index (NSTI) as a measure for how well a set of microbial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) is represented by a set of sequenced genomes of related organisms. Specifically, the NSTI of a microbial community is the average phylogenetic distance of any OTU in the community, to the closest relative with an available sequenced genome ("target tips"). In analogy to the NSTI, the function find_nearest_tips provides a means to find the nearest tip (from a subset of target tips) to each tip and node in a phylogenetic tree, together with the corresponding phylogenetic ("patristic") distance.

If only_descending_tips is TRUE, then only descending target tips are considered when searching for the nearest target tip of a node/tip. In that case, if a node/tip has no descending target tip, its nearest target tip is set to NA. If tree$edge.length is missing or NULL, then each edge is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A list with the following elements:

nearest_tip_per_tip

An integer vector of size Ntips, listing the nearest target tip for each tip in the tree. Hence, nearest_tip_per_tip[i] is the index of the nearest tip (from the set of target tips), with respect to tip i (where i=1,..,Ntips). Some values may appear multiple times in this vector, if multiple tips share the same nearest target tip.

nearest_tip_per_node

An integer vector of size Nnodes, listing the index of the nearest target tip for each node in the tree. Hence, nearest_tip_per_node[i] is the index of the nearest tip (from the set of target tips), with respect to node i (where i=1,..,Nnodes). Some values may appear multiple times in this vector, if multiple nodes share the same nearest target tip.

nearest_distance_per_tip

Numeric vector of size Ntips. Phylogenetic ("patristic") distance of each tip in the tree to its nearest target tip. If only_descending_tips was set to TRUE, then nearest_distance_per_tip[i] will be set to infinity for any tip i that is not a target tip.

nearest_distance_per_node

Numeric vector of size Nnodes. Phylogenetic ("patristic") distance of each node in the tree to its nearest target tip. If only_descending_tips was set to TRUE, then nearest_distance_per_node[i] will be set to infinity for any node i that has no descending target tips.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

M. G. I. Langille, J. Zaneveld, J. G. Caporaso et al (2013). Predictive functional profiling of microbial communities using 16S rRNA marker gene sequences. Nature Biotechnology. 31:814-821.

See Also

find_farthest_tips

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# pick a random set of "target" tips
target_tips = sample.int(n=Ntips, size=as.integer(Ntips/10), replace=FALSE)

# find nearest target tip to each tip & node in the tree
results = find_nearest_tips(tree, target_tips=target_tips)

# plot histogram of distances to target tips (across all tips of the tree)
distances = results$nearest_distance_per_tip
hist(distances, breaks=10, xlab="nearest distance", ylab="number of tips", prob=FALSE);

Find the root of a tree.

Description

Find the root of a phylogenetic tree. The root is defined as the unique node with no parent.

Usage

find_root(tree)

Arguments

tree

A tree of class "phylo". If the tree is not rooted, the function will return NA.

Details

By convention, the root of a "phylo" tree is typically the first node (i.e. with index Ntips+1), however this is not always guaranteed. This function finds the root of a tree by searching for the node with no parent. If no such node exists, NA is returned. If multiple such nodes exist, NA is returned. If any node has more than 1 parent, NA is returned. Hence, this function can be used to test if a tree is rooted purely based on the edge structure, assuming that the tree is connected (i.e. not a forest).

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

Index of the tree's root, as listed in tree$edge. An integer ranging from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes, where Ntips and Nnodes is the number of tips and nodes in the tree, respectively. By convention, the root will typically be Ntips+1 but this is not guaranteed.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

find_root_of_monophyletic_tips, root_at_node, root_at_midpoint

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# reroot the tree at the 20-th node
new_root_node = 20
tree = root_at_node(tree, new_root_node, update_indices=FALSE)

# find new root index and compare with expectation
cat(sprintf("New root is %d, expected at %d\n",find_root(tree),new_root_node+Ntips))

Find the node or tip that, as root, would make a set of target tips monophyletic.

Description

Given a tree (rooted or unrooted) and a specific set of target tips, this function finds the tip or node that, if turned into root, would make a set of target tips a monophyletic group that either descends from a single child of the new root (if as_MRCA==FALSE) or whose MRCA is the new root (if as_MRCA==TRUE).

Usage

find_root_of_monophyletic_tips(tree, monophyletic_tips, as_MRCA=TRUE, is_rooted=FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A tree object of class "phylo". Can be unrooted or rooted.

monophyletic_tips

Character or integer vector, specifying the names or indices, respectively, of the target tips that should be turned monophyletic. If an integer vector, its elements must be between 1 and Ntips. If a character vector, its elements must be elements in tree$tip.label.

as_MRCA

Logical, specifying whether the new root should become the MRCA of the target tips. If FALSE, the new root is chosen such that the MRCA of the target tips is the child of the new root.

is_rooted

Logical, specifying whether the input tree can be assumed to be rooted. If you are sure that the input tree is rooted, set this to TRUE for computational efficiency, otherwise to be on the safe side set this to FALSE.

Details

The input tree may include an arbitrary number of incoming and outgoing edges per node (but only one edge per tip), and the direction of these edges can be arbitrary. Of course, the undirected graph defined by all edges must still be a valid tree (i.e. a connected acyclic graph). This function does not change the tree, it just determines which tip or node should be made root for the target tips to be a monophyletic group. If the target tips do not form a monophyletic group regardless of root placement (this is typical if the tips are simply chosen randomly), this function returns NA.

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges).

Value

A single integer between 1 and (Ntips+Nnodes), specifying the index of the tip or node that, if made root, would make the target tips monophyletic. If this was not possible, NA is returned.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

find_root

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# pick a random node and find all descending tips
MRCA = sample.int(tree$Nnode,size=1)
monophyletic_tips = get_subtree_at_node(tree, MRCA)$new2old_tip

# change root of tree (change edge directions)
tree = root_at_node(tree, new_root_node=10, update_indices=FALSE)

# determine root that would make target tips monophyletic
new_root = find_root_of_monophyletic_tips(tree, monophyletic_tips, as_MRCA=TRUE, is_rooted=FALSE)

# compare expectation with result
cat(sprintf("MRCA = %d, new root node=%d\n",MRCA,new_root-Ntips))

Fit and compare Brownian Motion models for multivariate trait evolution between two data sets.

Description

Given two rooted phylogenetic trees and states of one or more continuous (numeric) traits on the trees' tips, fit a multivariate Brownian motion model of correlated evolution to each data set and compare the fitted models. This function estimates the diffusivity matrix for each data set (i.e., each tree/tip-states set) via maximum-likelihood and assesses whether the log-difference between the two fitted diffusivity matrixes is statistically significant, under the null hypothesis that the two data sets exhibit the same diffusivity. Optionally, multiple trees can be used as input for each data set, under the assumption that the trait evolved on each tree according to the same BM model. For more details on how BM is fitted to each data set see the function fit_bm_model.

Usage

fit_and_compare_bm_models(  trees1, 
                            tip_states1,
                            trees2,
                            tip_states2,
                            Nbootstraps     = 0,
                            Nsignificance   = 0,
                            check_input     = TRUE,
                            verbose         = FALSE,
                            verbose_prefix  = "")

Arguments

trees1

Either a single rooted tree or a list of rooted trees, of class "phylo", corresponding to the first data set on which a BM model is to be fitted. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

tip_states1

Numeric state of each trait at each tip in each tree in the first data set. If trees1 is a single tree, then tip_states1 must either be a numeric vector of size Ntips or a 2D numeric matrix of size Ntips x Ntraits, listing the trait states for each tip in the tree. If trees1 is a list of Ntrees trees, then tip_states1 must be a list of length Ntrees, each element of which lists the trait states for the corresponding tree (as a vector or 2D matrix, similarly to the single-tree case).

trees2

Either a single rooted tree or a list of rooted trees, of class "phylo", corresponding to the second data set on which a BM model is to be fitted. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

tip_states2

Numeric state of each trait at each tip in each tree in the second data set, similarly to tip_states1.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for calculating the confidence intervals of BM diffusivities fitted to each data set. If <=0, no bootstrapping is performed.

Nsignificance

Integer, specifying the number of simulations to perform for assessing the statistical significance of the log-transformed difference between the diffusivities fitted to the two data sets, i.e. of log(D1)log(D2)|\log(D_1)-\log(D_2)|. Set to 0 to not calculate the statistical significance. See below for additional details.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress report messages to the screen.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying a prefix to include in front of progress report messages on each line. Only relevant if verbose==TRUE.

Details

For details on the Brownian Motion model see fit_bm_model and simulate_bm_model. This function separately fits a single-variate or multi-variate BM model with constant diffusivity (diffusivity matrix, in the multivariate case) to each data set; internally, this function applies fit_bm_model to each data set.

If Nsignificance>0, the statistical significance of the log-transformed difference of the two fitted diffusivity matrixes, log(D1)log(D2)|\log(D_1)-\log(D_2)|, is assessed, under the null hypothesis that both data sets were generated by the same common BM model. The diffusivity of this common BM model is estimated by fitting to both datasets at once, i.e. after merging the two datasets into a single dataset of trees and tip states (see return variable fit_common below). For each of the Nsignificance random simulations of the common BM model on the two tree sets, the diffusivities are again separately fitted on the two simulated sets and the resulting log-difference is compared to the one of the original data sets. The returned significance is the probability that the diffusivities would have a log-difference larger than the observed one, if the two data sets had been generated under the common BM model.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as monofurcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Note that multifurcations are internally expanded to bifurcations, prior to model fitting.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful for both data sets. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

fit1

A named list containing the fitting results for the first data set, in the same format as returned by fit_bm_model. In particular, the diffusivity fitted to the first data set will be stored in fit1$diffusivity.

fit2

A named list containing the fitting results for the second data set, in the same format as returned by fit_bm_model. In particular, the diffusivity fitted to the second data set will be stored in fit2$diffusivity.

log_difference

The absolute difference between the log-transformed diffusivities, i.e. log(D1)log(D2)|\log(D_1)-\log(D_2)|. In the multivariate case, this will be a matrix of size Ntraits x Ntraits.

significance

Numeric, statistical significance of the observed log-difference under the null hypothesis that the two data sets were generated by a common BM model. Only returned if Nsignificance>0.

fit_common

A named list containing the fitting results for the two data sets combined, in the same format as returned by fit_bm_model. The common diffusivity, fit_common$diffusivity is used for the random simulations when assessing the statistical significance of the log-difference of the separately fitted diffusivities. Only returned if Nsignificance>0.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. Felsenstein (1985). Phylogenies and the Comparative Method. The American Naturalist. 125:1-15.

See Also

simulate_bm_model, fit_bm_model, get_independent_contrasts

Examples

# simulate distinct BM models on two random trees
D1 = 1
D2 = 2
tree1 = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=1),max_tips=100)$tree
tree2 = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=1),max_tips=100)$tree
tip_states1 = simulate_bm_model(tree1, diffusivity = D1)$tip_states
tip_states2 = simulate_bm_model(tree2, diffusivity = D2)$tip_states

# fit and compare BM models between the two data sets
fit = fit_and_compare_bm_models(trees1          = tree1, 
                                tip_states1     = tip_states1, 
                                trees2          = tree2,
                                tip_states2     = tip_states2,
                                Nbootstraps     = 100,
                                Nsignificance   = 100)

# print summary of results
cat(sprintf("Fitted D1 = %g, D2 = %g, significance of log-diff. = %g\n",
            fit$fit1$diffusivity, fit$fit2$diffusivity, fit$significance))

Fit and compare Spherical Brownian Motion models for diffusive geographic dispersal between two data sets.

Description

Given two rooted phylogenetic trees and geographic coordinates of the trees' tips, fit a Spherical Brownian Motion (SBM) model of diffusive geographic dispersal with constant diffusivity to each tree and compare the fitted models. This function estimates the diffusivity (DD) for each data set (i.e., each set of trees + tip-coordinates) via maximum-likelihood and assesses whether the log-difference between the two fitted diffusivities is statistically significant, under the null hypothesis that the two data sets exhibit the same diffusivity. Optionally, multiple trees can be used as input for each data set, under the assumption that dispersal occurred according to the same diffusivity in each tree of that dataset. For more details on how SBM is fitted to each data set see the function fit_sbm_const.

Usage

fit_and_compare_sbm_const(  trees1, 
                            tip_latitudes1,
                            tip_longitudes1,
                            trees2,
                            tip_latitudes2,
                            tip_longitudes2,
                            radius,
                            planar_approximation    = FALSE,
                            only_basal_tip_pairs    = FALSE,
                            only_distant_tip_pairs  = FALSE,
                            min_MRCA_time           = 0,
                            max_MRCA_age            = Inf,
                            max_phylodistance       = Inf,
                            min_diffusivity         = NULL,
                            max_diffusivity         = NULL,
                            Nbootstraps             = 0,
                            Nsignificance           = 0,
                            SBM_PD_functor          = NULL,
                            verbose                 = FALSE,
                            verbose_prefix          = "")

Arguments

trees1

Either a single rooted tree or a list of rooted trees, of class "phylo", corresponding to the first data set on which an SBM model is to be fitted. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

tip_latitudes1

Numeric vector listing the latitude (in decimal degrees) of each tip in each tree in the first data set. If trees1 is a single tree, then tip_latitudes1 must be a numeric vector of size Ntips, listing the latitudes for each tip in the tree. If trees1 is a list of Ntrees trees, then tip_latitudes1 must be a list of length Ntrees, each element of which lists the latitudes for the corresponding tree (as a vector, similarly to the single-tree case).

tip_longitudes1

Similar to tip_latitudes1, but listing longitudes (in decimal degrees) of each tip in each tree in the first data set.

trees2

Either a single rooted tree or a list of rooted trees, of class "phylo", corresponding to the second data set on which an SBM model is to be fitted. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

tip_latitudes2

Numeric vector listing the latitude (in decimal degrees) of each tip in each tree in the second data set, similarly to tip_latitudes1.

tip_longitudes2

Numeric vector listing the longitude (in decimal degrees) of each tip in each tree in the second data set, similarly to tip_longitudes1.

radius

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the radius of the sphere. For Earth, the mean radius is 6371 km.

planar_approximation

Logical, specifying whether to estimate the diffusivity based on a planar approximation of the SBM model, i.e. by assuming that geographic distances between tips are as if tips are distributed on a 2D cartesian plane. This approximation is only accurate if geographical distances between tips are small compared to the sphere's radius.

only_basal_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare immediate sister tips, i.e., tips connected through a single parental node.

only_distant_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare tips at distinct geographic locations.

min_MRCA_time

Numeric, specifying the minimum allowed time (distance from root) of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at least this distance from the root. Set min_MRCA_time<=0 to disable this filter.

max_MRCA_age

Numeric, specifying the maximum allowed age (distance from youngest tip) of the MRCA of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at most this age (time to present). Set max_MRCA_age=Inf to disable this filter.

max_phylodistance

Numeric, maximum allowed geodistance for an independent contrast to be included in the SBM fitting. Set max_phylodistance=Inf to disable this filter.

min_diffusivity

Non-negative numeric, specifying the minimum possible diffusivity. If NULL, this is automatically chosen.

max_diffusivity

Non-negative numeric, specifying the maximum possible diffusivity. If NULL, this is automatically chosen.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for calculating the confidence intervals of SBM diffusivities fitted to each data set. If <=0, no bootstrapping is performed.

Nsignificance

Integer, specifying the number of simulations to perform for assessing the statistical significance of the linear difference and log-transformed difference between the diffusivities fitted to the two data sets, i.e. of D1D2|D_1-D_2| and of log(D1)log(D2)|\log(D_1)-\log(D_2)|. Set to 0 to not calculate statistical significances. See below for additional details.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally and for debugging purposes. Unless you know what you're doing, you should keep this NULL.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress report messages to the screen.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying a prefix to include in front of progress report messages on each line. Only relevant if verbose==TRUE.

Details

For details on the Spherical Brownian Motion model see fit_sbm_const and simulate_sbm. This function separately fits an SBM model with constant diffusivity to each of two data sets; internally, this function applies fit_sbm_const to each data set.

If Nsignificance>0, the statistical significance of the linear difference (D1D2|D_1-D_2|) and log-transformed difference (log(D1)log(D2)|\log(D_1)-\log(D_2)|) of the two fitted diffusivities is assessed under the null hypothesis that both data sets were generated by the same common SBM model. The diffusivity of this common SBM model is estimated by fitting to both datasets at once, i.e. after merging the two datasets into a single dataset of trees and tip coordinates (see return variable fit_common below). For each of the Nsignificance random simulations of the common SBM model on the two tree sets, the diffusivities are again separately fitted on the two simulated sets and the resulting difference and log-difference is compared to those of the original data sets. The returned lin_significance (or log_significance) is the probability that the diffusivities would have a difference (or log-difference) larger than the observed one, if the two data sets had been generated under the common SBM model.

If edge.length is missing from one of the input trees, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. Trees may include multifurcations as well as monofurcations, however multifurcations are internally expanded into bifurcations by adding dummy nodes.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful for both data sets. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

fit1

A named list containing the fitting results for the first data set, in the same format as returned by fit_sbm_const. In particular, the diffusivity fitted to the first data set will be stored in fit1$diffusivity.

fit2

A named list containing the fitting results for the second data set, in the same format as returned by fit_sbm_const. In particular, the diffusivity fitted to the second data set will be stored in fit2$diffusivity.

lin_difference

The absolute difference between the two diffusivities, i.e. D1D2|D_1-D_2|.

log_difference

The absolute difference between the two log-transformed diffusivities, i.e. log(D1)log(D2)|\log(D_1)-\log(D_2)|.

lin_significance

Numeric, statistical significance of the observed lin-difference under the null hypothesis that the two data sets were generated by a common SBM model. Only returned if Nsignificance>0.

log_significance

Numeric, statistical significance of the observed log-difference under the null hypothesis that the two data sets were generated by a common SBM model. Only returned if Nsignificance>0.

fit_common

A named list containing the fitting results for the two data sets combined, in the same format as returned by fit_sbm_const. The common diffusivity, fit_common$diffusivity is used for the random simulations when assessing the statistical significance of the lin-difference and log-difference of the separately fitted diffusivities. Only returned if Nsignificance>0.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

S. Louca (in review as of 2020). Phylogeographic estimation and simulation of global diffusive dispersal. Systematic Biology.

See Also

simulate_sbm, fit_sbm_const, fit_sbm_linear, fit_sbm_parametric

Examples

## Not run: 
# simulate distinct SBM models on two random trees
radius = 6371   # Earth's radius
D1     = 1      # diffusivity on 1st tree
D2     = 3      # diffusivity on 2nd tree
tree1  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=1),max_tips=100)$tree
tree2  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=1),max_tips=100)$tree
sim1   = simulate_sbm(tree=tree1, radius=radius, diffusivity=D1)
sim2   = simulate_sbm(tree=tree2, radius=radius, diffusivity=D2)
tip_latitudes1  = sim1$tip_latitudes
tip_longitudes1 = sim1$tip_longitudes
tip_latitudes2  = sim2$tip_latitudes
tip_longitudes2 = sim2$tip_longitudes

# fit and compare SBM models between the two hypothetical data sets
fit = fit_and_compare_sbm_const(trees1          = tree1, 
                                tip_latitudes1  = tip_latitudes1, 
                                tip_longitudes1 = tip_longitudes1, 
                                trees2          = tree2,
                                tip_latitudes2  = tip_latitudes2, 
                                tip_longitudes2 = tip_longitudes2, 
                                radius          = radius,
                                Nbootstraps     = 0,
                                Nsignificance   = 100)

# print summary of results
cat(sprintf("Fitted D1 = %g, D2 = %g, significance of log-diff. = %g\n",
            fit$fit1$diffusivity, fit$fit2$diffusivity, fit$log_significance))

## End(Not run)

Fit a Brownian Motion model for multivariate trait evolution.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and states of one or more continuous (numeric) traits on the tree's tips, fit a multivariate Brownian motion model of correlated co-evolution of these traits. This estimates a single diffusivity matrix, which describes the variance-covariance structure of each trait's random walk. The model assumes a fixed diffusivity matrix on the entire tree. Optionally, multiple trees can be used as input, under the assumption that the trait evolved on each tree according to the same BM model.

Usage

fit_bm_model(   trees, 
                tip_states, 
                isotropic   = FALSE,
                Nbootstraps = 0,
                check_input = TRUE)

Arguments

trees

Either a single rooted tree or a list of rooted trees, of class "phylo". The root of each tree is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

tip_states

Numeric state of each trait at each tip in each tree. If trees was a single tree, then tip_states must either be a numeric vector of size Ntips or a 2D numeric matrix of size Ntips x Ntraits, listing the trait states for each tip in the tree. If trees is a list of Ntrees trees, then tip_states must be a list of length Ntrees, each element of which lists the trait states for the corresponding tree (as a vector or 2D matrix, similarly to the single-tree case).

isotropic

Logical, specifying whether diffusion should be assumed to be isotropic (i.e., independent of the direction). Hence, if isotropic=TRUE, then the diffusivity matrix is forced to be diagonal, with all entries being equal. If isotropic=FALSE, an arbitrary diffusivity matrix is fitted (i.e., the diffusivity matrix is only constrained to be symmetric and non-negative definite).

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for calculating the confidence intervals. If <=0, no bootstrapping is performed.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

The BM model is defined by the stochastic differential equation

dX=σdWdX = \sigma \cdot dW

where WW is a multidimensional Wiener process with Ndegrees independent components and σ\sigma is a matrix of size Ntraits x Ndegrees, sometimes known as "volatility" or "instantaneous variance". Alternatively, the same model can be defined as a Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density ρ\rho:

ρt=i,jDij2ρxixj.\frac{\partial \rho}{\partial t} = \sum_{i,j}D_{ij}\frac{\partial^2\rho}{\partial x_i\partial x_j}.

The matrix DD is referred to as the diffusivity matrix (or diffusion tensor), and 2D=σσT2D=\sigma\cdot\sigma^T. Note that in the multidimensional case σ\sigma can be obtained from DD by means of a Cholesky decomposition; in the scalar case we have simply σ=2D\sigma=\sqrt{2D}.

The function uses phylogenetic independent contrasts (Felsenstein, 1985) to retrieve independent increments of the multivariate random walk. The diffusivity matrix DD is then fitted using maximum-likelihood on the intrinsic geometry of positive-definite matrices. If multiple trees are provided as input, then independent contrasts are extracted from all trees and combined into a single set of independent contrasts (i.e., as if they had been extracted from a single tree).

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as monofurcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Note that multifurcations are internally expanded to bifurcations, prior to model fitting.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

diffusivity

Either a single non-negative number (if tip_states was a vector) or a 2D quadratic non-negative-definite matrix (if tip_states was a 2D matrix). The fitted diffusivity matrix of the multivariate Brownian motion model.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model, given the provided tip states data.

AIC

The AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) of the fitted model.

BIC

The BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) of the fitted model.

Ncontrasts

Integer, number of independent contrasts used to estimate the diffusivity. This corresponds to the number of independent data points used.

standard_errors

Either a single numeric or a 2D numeric matrix of size Ntraits x Ntraits, listing the estimated standard errors of the estimated diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Either a single numeric or a 2D numeric matrix of size Ntraits x Ntraits, listing the lower bounds of the 50% confidence interval for the estimated diffusivity (25-75% percentile), based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Either a single numeric or a 2D numeric matrix of size Ntraits x Ntraits, listing the upper bound of the 50% confidence interval for the estimated diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Either a single numeric or a 2D numeric matrix of size Ntraits x Ntraits, listing the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval for the estimated diffusivity (2.5-97.5% percentile), based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Either a single numeric or a 2D numeric matrix of size Ntraits x Ntraits, listing the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the estimated diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

consistency

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated consistency of the data with the fitted model. If LL denotes the loglikelihood of new data generated by the fitted model (under the same model) and MM denotes the expectation of LL, then consistency is the probability that LM|L-M| will be greater or equal to XM|X-M|, where XX is the loglikelihood of the original data under the fitted model. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0. A low consistency (e.g., <0.05) indicates that the fitted model is a poor description of the data. See Lindholm et al. (2019) for background.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. Felsenstein (1985). Phylogenies and the Comparative Method. The American Naturalist. 125:1-15.

A. Lindholm, D. Zachariah, P. Stoica, T. B. Schoen (2019). Data consistency approach to model validation. IEEE Access. 7:59788-59796.

See Also

simulate_bm_model, get_independent_contrasts

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1), 10000)$tree


# Example 1: Scalar case
# - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
# simulate scalar continuous trait on the tree
D = 1
tip_states = simulate_bm_model(tree, diffusivity=D)$tip_states

# estimate original diffusivity from the generated data
fit = fit_bm_model(tree, tip_states)
cat(sprintf("True D=%g, fitted D=%g\n",D,fit$diffusivity))


# Example 2: Multivariate case
# - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
# simulate vector-valued continuous trait on the tree
D = get_random_diffusivity_matrix(Ntraits=5)
tip_states = simulate_bm_model(tree, diffusivity=D)$tip_states

# estimate original diffusivity matrix from the generated data
fit = fit_bm_model(tree, tip_states)

# compare true and fitted diffusivity matrices
cat("True D:\n"); print(D)
cat("Fitted D:\n"); print(fit$diffusivity)

Fit a homogenous birth-death model on a discrete time grid.

Description

Given an ultrametric timetree, fit a homogenous birth-death (HBD) model in which speciation and extinction rates (λ\lambda and mumu) are defined on a fixed grid of discrete time points and assumed to vary polynomially between grid points. “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates (in the literature this is sometimes referred to simply as “birth-death model”). Every HBD model is defined based on the values that λ\lambda and μ\mu take over time as well as the sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species sampled). This function estimates the values of λ\lambda and μ\mu at each grid point by maximizing the likelihood (Morlon et al. 2011) of the timetree under the resulting HBD model.

Usage

fit_hbd_model_on_grid(tree, 
                      oldest_age        = NULL,
                      age0              = 0,
                      age_grid          = NULL,
                      min_lambda        = 0,
                      max_lambda        = +Inf,
                      min_mu            = 0,
                      max_mu            = +Inf,
                      min_rho0          = 1e-10,
                      max_rho0          = 1,
                      guess_lambda      = NULL,
                      guess_mu          = NULL,
                      guess_rho0        = 1,
                      fixed_lambda      = NULL,
                      fixed_mu          = NULL,
                      fixed_rho0        = NULL,
                      const_lambda      = FALSE,
                      const_mu          = FALSE,
                      splines_degree    = 1,
                      condition         = "auto",
                      relative_dt       = 1e-3,
                      Ntrials           = 1,
                      Nthreads          = 1,
                      max_model_runtime = NULL,
                      fit_control       = list())

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated reconstructed phylogeny of a set of extant sampled species.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age, and the classical formula by Morlon et al. (2011) is used. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting, and with respect to which rho is defined. If age0>0, then rho0 refers to the sampling fraction at age age0, i.e. the fraction of lineages extant at age0 that are included in the tree. See below for more details.

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing ages in ascending order, on which λ\lambda and μ\mu are allowed to vary independently. This grid must cover age0. If splines_degree>0 (see option below) then the age grid must also cover oldest_age. If NULL or of length <=1 (regardless of value), then λ\lambda and μ\mu are assumed to be time-independent.

min_lambda

Numeric vector of length Ngrid (=max(1,length(age_grid))), or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted λ\lambda at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages.

max_lambda

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted λ\lambda at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

min_mu

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted μ\mu at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages.

max_mu

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted μ\mu at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

min_rho0

Numeric, specifying a lower bound for the fitted sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species included in the tree).

max_rho0

Numeric, specifying an upper bound for the fitted sampling fraction ρ\rho.

guess_lambda

Initial guess for λ\lambda at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same λ\lambda at all ages) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid specifying a separate guess for λ\lambda at each age-grid point. To omit an initial guess for some but not all age-grid points, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

guess_mu

Initial guess for μ\mu at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same μ\mu at all ages) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid specifying a separate guess for μ\mu at each age-grid point. To omit an initial guess for some but not all age-grid points, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

guess_rho0

Numeric, specifying an initial guess for the sampling fraction ρ\rho at age0. Setting this to NULL or NA is the same as setting it to 1.

fixed_lambda

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) λ\lambda values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (λ\lambda is not fixed anywhere), or a single numeric (λ\lambda fixed to the same value at all grid points) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid (λ\lambda fixed on one or more age-grid points, use NA for non-fixed values).

fixed_mu

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) μ\mu values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (μ\mu is not fixed anywhere), or a single numeric (μ\mu fixed to the same value at all grid points) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid (μ\mu fixed on one or more age-grid points, use NA for non-fixed values).

fixed_rho0

Numeric between 0 and 1, optionallly specifying a fixed value for the sampling fraction ρ\rho. If NULL or NA, the sampling fraction ρ\rho is estimated, however note that this may not always be meaningful (Stadler 2009, Stadler 2013).

const_lambda

Logical, specifying whether λ\lambda should be assumed constant across the grid, i.e. time-independent. Setting const_lambda=TRUE reduces the number of free (i.e., independently fitted) parameters. If λ\lambda is fixed on some grid points (i.e. via fixed_lambda), then only the non-fixed lambdas are assumed to be identical to one another.

const_mu

Logical, specifying whether μ\mu should be assumed constant across the grid, i.e. time-independent. Setting const_mu=TRUE reduces the number of free (i.e., independently fitted) parameters. If μ\mu is fixed on some grid points (i.e. via fixed_mu), then only the non-fixed mus are assumed to be identical to one another.

splines_degree

Integer between 0 and 3 (inclusive), specifying the polynomial degree of λ\lambda and μ\mu between age-grid points. If 0, then λ\lambda and μ\mu are considered piecewise constant, if 1 then λ\lambda and μ\mu are considered piecewise linear, if 2 or 3 then λ\lambda and μ\mu are considered to be splines of degree 2 or 3, respectively. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on. A degree of 0 is generally not recommended, despite the fact that it has been historically popular. The case splines_degree=0 is also known as “skyline” model.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto", "stemN" or "crownN" (where N is an integer >=2), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root at that time. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage, with the process having started at oldest_age. Note that "crown" and "crownN"" really only make sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. If "stem2", the condition is that the process yielded at least two sampled tips, and similarly for "stem3" etc. If "crown3", the condition is that a splitting occurred at the root age, both child clades survived, and in total yielded at least 3 sampled tips (and similarly for "crown4" etc). If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier. "none" is generally not recommended.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time, when calculating the likelihood. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

Details

Warning: Unless well-justified constraints are imposed on either λ\lambda and/or μ\mu and ρ\rho, it is generally impossible to reliably estimate λ\lambda and μ\mu from extant timetrees alone (Louca and Pennell, 2020). This routine (and any other software that claims to estimate λ\lambda and μ\mu solely from extant timetrees) should thus be used with great suspicion. If your only source of information is an extant timetree, and you have no a priori information on how λ\lambda or μ\mu might have looked like, you should consider using the more appropriate routines fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid and fit_hbd_psr_on_grid instead.

If age0>0, the input tree is essentially trimmed at age0 (omitting anything younger than age0), and the various variables are fitted to this new (shorter) tree, with time shifted appropriately. For example, the fitted rho0 is thus the sampling fraction at age0, i.e. the fraction of lineages extant at age0 that are represented in the timetree.

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbd_model_on_grid as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (min_lambda, max_lambda, min_mu, max_mu, min_rho0 and max_rho0) and a reasonable parameter guess (guess_lambda, guess_mu and guess_rho0). It is also important that the age_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the expected major variations of λ\lambda and μ\mu over time, but keep in mind the serious risk of overfitting when age_grid is too fine and/or the tree is too small.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given timetree.

fitted_lambda

Numeric vector of size Ngrid, listing fitted or fixed speciation rates λ\lambda at each age-grid point. Between grid points λ\lambda should be interpreted as a piecewise polynomial function (natural spline) of degree splines_degree; to evaluate this function at arbitrary ages use the castor routine evaluate_spline.

fitted_mu

Numeric vector of size Ngrid, listing fitted or fixed extinction rates μ\mu at each age-grid point. Between grid points μ\mu should be interpreted as a piecewise polynomial function (natural spline) of degree splines_degree; to evaluate this function at arbitrary ages use the castor routine evaluate_spline.

fitted_rho

Numeric, specifying the fitted or fixed sampling fraction ρ\rho.

guess_lambda

Numeric vector of size Ngrid, specifying the initial guess for λ\lambda at each age-grid point.

guess_mu

Numeric vector of size Ngrid, specifying the initial guess for μ\mu at each age-grid point.

guess_rho0

Numeric, specifying the initial guess for ρ\rho.

age_grid

The age-grid on which λ\lambda and μ\mu are defined. This will be the same as the provided age_grid, unless the latter was NULL or of length <=1.

NFP

Integer, number of free (i.e., independently) fitted parameters. If none of the λ\lambda, μ\mu and ρ\rho were fixed, and const_lambda=FALSE and const_mu=FALSE, then NFP will be equal to 2*Ngrid+1.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of branching times), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

condition

Character, specifying what conditioning was root for the likelihood (e.g. "crown" or "stem").

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

T. Stadler (2009). On incomplete sampling under birth-death models and connections to the sampling-based coalescent. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 261:58-66.

T. Stadler (2013). How can we improve accuracy of macroevolutionary rate estimates? Systematic Biology. 62:321-329.

H. Morlon, T. L. Parsons, J. B. Plotkin (2011). Reconciling molecular phylogenies with the fossil record. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108:16327-16332.

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

loglikelihood_hbd

fit_hbd_model_parametric

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric

fit_hbd_psr_on_grid

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu
Ntips     = 10000
rho       = 0.5 # sampling fraction
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
lambdas   = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid)
mus       = 1.5*exp(0.09*time_grid)
sim       = generate_random_tree( parameters  = list(rarefaction=rho), 
                                  max_tips    = Ntips/rho,
                                  coalescent  = TRUE,
                                  added_rates_times     = time_grid,
                                  added_birth_rates_pc  = lambdas,
                                  added_death_rates_pc  = mus)
tree = sim$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips, spans %g Myr\n",length(tree$tip.label),root_age))


# Fit mu on grid
# Assume that lambda & rho are known
Ngrid     = 5
age_grid  = seq(from=0,to=root_age,length.out=Ngrid)
fit = fit_hbd_model_on_grid(tree, 
          age_grid    = age_grid,
          max_mu      = 100,
          fixed_lambda= approx(x=time_grid,y=lambdas,xout=sim$final_time-age_grid)$y,
          fixed_rho0   = rho,
          condition   = "crown",
          Ntrials     = 10,	# perform 10 fitting trials
          Nthreads    = 2,	# use two CPUs
          max_model_runtime = 1) 	# limit model evaluation to 1 second
if(!fit$success){
  cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
  cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nLoglikelihood=%g\n",fit$loglikelihood))
  
  # plot fitted & true mu
  plot( x     = fit$age_grid,
        y     = fit$fitted_mu,
        main  = 'Fitted & true mu',
        xlab  = 'age',
        ylab  = 'mu',
        type  = 'b',
        col   = 'red',
        xlim  = c(root_age,0))
  lines(x     = sim$final_time-time_grid,
        y     = mus,
        type  = 'l',
        col   = 'blue');
        
  # get fitted mu as a function of age
  mu_fun = approxfun(x=fit$age_grid, y=fit$fitted_mu)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit a parametric homogenous birth-death model to a timetree.

Description

Given an ultrametric timetree, fit a homogenous birth-death (HBD) model in which speciation and extinction rates (λ\lambda and μ\mu) are given as parameterized functions of time before present. “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates (in the literature this is sometimes referred to simply as “birth-death model”). Every HBD model is defined based on the values that λ\lambda and μ\mu take over time as well as the sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species sampled); in turn, λ\lambda, μ\mu and ρ\rho can be parameterized by a finite set of parameters. This function estimates these parameters by maximizing the likelihood (Morlon et al. 2011) of the timetree under the resulting HBD model.

Usage

fit_hbd_model_parametric( tree, 
                          param_values,
                          param_guess           = NULL,
                          param_min             = -Inf,
                          param_max             = +Inf,
                          param_scale           = NULL,
                          oldest_age            = NULL,
                          age0                  = 0,
                          lambda,
                          mu                    = 0,
                          rho0                  = 1,
                          age_grid              = NULL,
                          condition             = "auto",
                          relative_dt           = 1e-3,
                          Ntrials               = 1,
                          max_start_attempts    = 1,
                          Nthreads              = 1,
                          max_model_runtime     = NULL,
                          Nbootstraps           = 0,
                          Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
                          fit_algorithm         = "nlminb",
                          fit_control           = list(),
                          focal_param_values    = NULL,
                          verbose               = FALSE,
                          diagnostics           = FALSE,
                          verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated reconstructed phylogeny of a set of extant sampled species.

param_values

Numeric vector, specifying fixed values for a some or all model parameters. For fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters, use NaN or NA. For example, the vector c(1.5,NA,40) specifies that the 1st and 3rd model parameters are fixed at the values 1.5 and 40, respectively, while the 2nd parameter is to be fitted. The length of this vector defines the total number of model parameters. If entries in this vector are named, the names are taken as parameter names. Names should be included if you'd like returned parameter vectors to have named entries, or if the functions lambda, mu or rho query parameter values by name (as opposed to numeric index).

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, specifying a first guess for the value of each model parameter. For fixed parameters, guess values are ignored. Can be NULL only if all model parameters are fixed.

param_min

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying lower bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same lower bound is applied to all parameters. Use -Inf to omit a lower bound for a parameter. If NULL, no lower bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, lower bounds are ignored.

param_max

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying upper bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same upper bound is applied to all parameters. Use +Inf to omit an upper bound for a parameter. If NULL, no upper bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, upper bounds are ignored.

param_scale

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying typical scales for model parameters. If of size 1, the same scale is assumed for all parameters. If NULL, scales are determined automatically. For fixed parameters, scales are ignored. It is strongly advised to provide reasonable scales, as this facilitates the numeric optimization algorithm.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age, and the classical formula by Morlon et al. (2011) is used. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting, and with respect to which rho is defined. If age0>0, then rho0 refers to the sampling fraction at age age0, i.e. the fraction of lineages extant at age0 that are included in the tree. See below for more details.

lambda

Function specifying the speciation rate at any given age (time before present) and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more ages) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument with strictly positive entries. Can also be a single number (i.e., lambda is fixed).

mu

Function specifying the extinction rate at any given age and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more ages) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument with non-negative entries. Can also be a single number (i.e., mu is fixed).

rho0

Function specifying the sampling fraction (fraction of extant species sampled at age0) for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly one argument, a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric between 0 (exclusive) and 1 (inclusive). Can also be a single number (i.e., rho0 is fixed).

age_grid

Numeric vector, specifying ages at which the lambda and mu functionals should be evaluated. This age grid must be fine enough to capture the possible variation in λ\lambda and μ\mu over time, within the permissible parameter range. If of size 1, then lambda & mu are assumed to be time-independent. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and must cover at least the full considered age interval (from 0 to oldest_age). Can also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case the speciation rate and extinction rate is assumed to be time-independent.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto", "stemN" or "crownN" (where N is an integer >=2), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root at that time. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage, with the process having started at oldest_age. Note that "crown" and "crownN"" really only make sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. If "stem2", the condition is that the process yielded at least two sampled tips, and similarly for "stem3" etc. If "crown3", the condition is that a splitting occurred at the root age, both child clades survived, and in total yielded at least 3 sampled tips (and similarly for "crown4" etc). If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier. "none" is generally not recommended.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time, when calculating the likelihood. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

max_start_attempts

Integer, specifying the number of times to attempt finding a valid start point (per trial) before giving up on that trial. Randomly choosen extreme start parameters may occasionally result in Inf/undefined likelihoods, so this option allows the algorithm to keep looking for valid starting points.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of estimated model parameters. Set to 0 for no bootstrapping.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

fit_algorithm

Character, specifying which optimization algorithm to use. Either "nlminb" or "subplex" are allowed.

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb or subplex optimization routine, depending on the choice of fit_algorithm. For example, for "nlminb" commonly modified options are iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package or of nloptr in the nloptr package.

focal_param_values

Optional numeric matrix having NP columns and an arbitrary number of rows, listing combinations of parameter values of particular interest and for which the log-likelihoods should be returned. This may be used for diagnostic purposes, e.g., to examine the shape of the likelihood function.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

diagnostics

Logical, specifying whether to print detailed information (such as model likelihoods) at every iteration of the fitting routine. For debugging purposes mainly.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

This function is designed to estimate a finite set of scalar parameters (p1,..,pnRp_1,..,p_n\in\R) that determine the speciation rate λ\lambda, the extinction rate μ\mu and the sampling fraction ρ\rho, by maximizing the likelihood of observing a given timetree under the HBD model. For example, the investigator may assume that both λ\lambda and μ\mu vary exponentially over time, i.e. they can be described by λ(t)=λoeαt\lambda(t)=\lambda_o\cdot e^{-\alpha t} and μ(t)=μoeβt\mu(t)=\mu_o\cdot e^{-\beta t} (where λo\lambda_o, μo\mu_o are unknown present-day rates and α\alpha, β\beta are unknown factors, and tt is time before present), and that the sampling fraction ρ\rho is known. In this case the model has 4 free parameters, p1=λop_1=\lambda_o, p2=μop_2=\mu_o, p3=αp_3=\alpha and p4=βp_4=\beta, each of which may be fitted to the tree.

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbd_model_parametric as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (param_min and param_max), a reasonable parameter guess (param_guess) and reasonable parameter scales param_scale. If some model parameters can vary over multiple orders of magnitude, it is advised to transform them so that they vary across fewer orders of magnitude (e.g., via log-transformation). It is also important that the age_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the variation of lambda and mu over time, since the likelihood is calculated under the assumption that both vary linearly between grid points.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

param_fitted

Numeric vector of size NP (number of model parameters), listing all fitted or fixed model parameters in their standard order (see details above). If param_names was provided, elements in fitted_params will be named.

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, listing guessed or fixed values for all model parameters in their standard order. If param_names was provided, elements in param_guess will be named.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given timetree.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) model parameters.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of branching times), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

condition

Character, specifying what conditioning was root for the likelihood (e.g. "crown" or "stem").

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

trial_start_objectives

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the initial objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial, i.e. at the start parameter values.

trial_objective_values

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the final maximized objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial.

trial_Nstart_attempts

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of start attempts for each fitting trial, until a starting point with valid likelihood was found.

trial_Niterations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of iterations needed for each fitting trial.

trial_Nevaluations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of likelihood evaluations needed for each fitting trial.

standard_errors

Numeric vector of size NP, estimated standard error of the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

medians

Numeric vector of size NP, median the estimated parameters across parametric bootstraps. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Numeric vector of size NP, lower bound of the 50% confidence interval (25-75% percentile) for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Numeric vector of size NP, upper bound of the 50% confidence interval for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Numeric vector of size NP, lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (2.5-97.5% percentile) for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Numeric vector of size NP, upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

consistency

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated consistency of the data with the fitted model (Lindholm et al. 2019). See the documentation of fit_hbds_model_on_grid for an explanation.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

H. Morlon, T. L. Parsons, J. B. Plotkin (2011). Reconciling molecular phylogenies with the fossil record. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108:16327-16332.

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

A. Lindholm, D. Zachariah, P. Stoica, T. B. Schoen (2019). Data consistency approach to model validation. IEEE Access. 7:59788-59796.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

loglikelihood_hbd

fit_hbd_model_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu
Ntips     = 10000
rho       = 0.5 # sampling fraction
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
lambdas   = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid)
mus       = 1.5*exp(0.09*time_grid)
tree      = generate_random_tree( parameters  = list(rarefaction=rho), 
                                  max_tips    = Ntips/rho,
                                  coalescent  = TRUE,
                                  added_rates_times     = time_grid,
                                  added_birth_rates_pc  = lambdas,
                                  added_death_rates_pc  = mus)$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips, spans %g Myr\n",length(tree$tip.label),root_age))

# Define a parametric HBD model, with exponentially varying lambda & mu
# Assume that the sampling fraction is known
# The model thus has 4 parameters: lambda0, mu0, alpha, beta
lambda_function = function(ages,params){
	return(params['lambda0']*exp(-params['alpha']*ages));
}
mu_function = function(ages,params){
	return(params['mu0']*exp(-params['beta']*ages));
}
rho_function = function(params){
	return(rho) # rho does not depend on any of the parameters
}

# Define an age grid on which lambda_function & mu_function shall be evaluated
# Should be sufficiently fine to capture the variation in lambda & mu
age_grid = seq(from=0,to=100,by=0.01)

# Perform fitting
# Lets suppose extinction rates are already known
cat(sprintf("Fitting model to tree..\n"))
fit = fit_hbd_model_parametric(	tree, 
                      param_values  = c(lambda0=NA, mu0=3, alpha=NA, beta=-0.09),
                      param_guess   = c(1,1,0,0),
                      param_min     = c(0,0,-1,-1),
                      param_max     = c(10,10,1,1),
                      param_scale   = 1, # all params are in the order of 1
                      lambda        = lambda_function,
                      mu            = mu_function,
                      rho0          = rho_function,
                      age_grid      = age_grid,
                      Ntrials       = 10,    # perform 10 fitting trials
                      Nthreads      = 2,     # use 2 CPUs
                      max_model_runtime = 1, # limit model evaluation to 1 second
                      fit_control       = list(rel.tol=1e-6))
if(!fit$success){
	cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
	cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nLoglikelihood=%g\n",fit$loglikelihood))
	print(fit)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit pulled diversification rates of birth-death models on a time grid with optimal size.

Description

Given an ultrametric timetree, estimate the pulled diversification rate of homogenous birth-death (HBD) models that best explains the tree via maximum likelihood, automatically determining the optimal time-grid size based on the data. Every HBD model is defined by some speciation and extinction rates (λ\lambda and μ\mu) over time, as well as the sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species sampled). “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates. For any given HBD model there exists an infinite number of alternative HBD models that predict the same deterministic lineages-through-time curve and yield the same likelihood for any given reconstructed timetree; these “congruent” models cannot be distinguished from one another solely based on the tree.

Each congruence class is uniquely described by the “pulled diversification rate” (PDR; Louca et al 2018), defined as PDR=λμ+λ1dλ/dτPDR=\lambda-\mu+\lambda^{-1}d\lambda/d\tau (where τ\tau is time before present) as well as the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o (where λo\lambda_o is the present-day speciation rate). That is, two HBD models are congruent if and only if they have the same PDR and the same product ρλo\rho\lambda_o. This function is designed to estimate the generating congruence class for the tree, by fitting the PDR on a grid of discrete times as well as the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o. Internally, the function uses fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid to perform the fitting. The "best" grid size is determined based on some optimality criterion, such as AIC.

Usage

fit_hbd_pdr_on_best_grid_size(tree,
                              oldest_age            = NULL,
                              age0                  = 0,
                              grid_sizes            = c(1,10),
                              uniform_grid          = FALSE,
                              criterion             = "AIC",
                              exhaustive            = TRUE,
                              min_PDR               = -Inf,
                              max_PDR               = +Inf,
                              min_rholambda0        = 1e-10,
                              max_rholambda0        = +Inf,
                              guess_PDR             = NULL,
                              guess_rholambda0      = NULL,
                              fixed_PDR             = NULL,
                              fixed_rholambda0      = NULL,
                              splines_degree        = 1,
                              condition             = "auto",
                              relative_dt           = 1e-3,
                              Ntrials               = 1,
                              Nbootstraps           = 0,
                              Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
                              Nthreads              = 1,
                              max_model_runtime	    = NULL,
                              fit_control           = list(),
                              verbose               = FALSE,
                              verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated phylogeny of a set of extant sampled species.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting. If age0>0, the tree essentially is trimmed at age0, omitting anything younger than age0, and the PDR and ρλo\rho\lambda_o are fitted to the trimmed tree while shifting time appropriately.

grid_sizes

Numeric vector, listing alternative grid sizes to consider.

uniform_grid

Logical, specifying whether to use uniform time grids (equal time intervals) or non-uniform time grids (more grid points towards the present, where more data are available).

criterion

Character, specifying which criterion to use for selecting the best grid. Options are "AIC" and "BIC".

exhaustive

Logical, whether to try all grid sizes before choosing the best one. If FALSE, the grid size is gradually increased until the selection criterio (e.g., AIC) starts becoming worse, at which point the search is halted. This avoids fitting models with excessive grid sizes when an optimum already seems to have been found at a smaller grid size.

min_PDR

Numeric vector of length Ngrid (=max(1,length(age_grid))), or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted PDR at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages. Note that in general the PDR may be negative as well as positive.

max_PDR

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted PDR at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

min_rholambda0

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the lower bound for the fitted ρλo\rho\lambda_o (sampling fraction times present-day extinction rate).

max_rholambda0

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the upper bound for the fitted ρλo\rho\lambda_o. Set to +Inf to omit this upper bound.

guess_PDR

Initial guess for the PDR at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing a constant PDR at all ages), or a function handle (for generating guesses at each grid point; this function may also return NA at some time points for which a guess shall be computed automatically).

guess_rholambda0

Numeric, specifying an initial guess for the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o. If NULL, a guess will be computed automatically.

fixed_PDR

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) PDR values. Either NULL (none of the PDR values are fixed) or a function handle specifying the PDR for any arbitrary age (PDR will be fixed at any age for which this function returns a finite number). The function fixed_PDR() need not return finite values for all times, in fact doing so would mean that the PDR is not fitted anywhere.

fixed_rholambda0

Numeric, optionally specifying a fixed value for the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o. If NULL or NA, the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o is estimated.

splines_degree

Integer between 0 and 3 (inclusive), specifying the polynomial degree of the PDR between age-grid points. If 0, then the PDR is considered to be piecewise constant, if 1 then the PDR is considered piecewise linear, if 2 or 3 then the PDR is considered to be a spline of degree 2 or 3, respectively. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on. A degree of 0 is generally not recommended.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto", "stemN" or "crownN" (where N is an integer >=2), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root at that time. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage, with the process having started at oldest_age. Note that "crown" and "crownN"" really only make sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. If "stem2", the condition is that the process yielded at least two sampled tips, and similarly for "stem3" etc. If "crown3", the condition is that a splitting occurred at the root age, both child clades survived, and in total yielded at least 3 sampled tips (and similarly for "crown4" etc). If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time, when calculating the likelihood. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying an optional number of bootstrap samplings to perform, for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of maximum-likelihood fitted parameters. If 0, no bootstrapping is performed. Typical values are 10-100. At each bootstrap sampling, a random timetree is generated under the birth-death model according to the fitted PDR and ρλo\rho\lambda_o, the parameters are estimated anew based on the generated tree, and subsequently compared to the original fitted parameters. Each bootstrap sampling will use roughly the same information and similar computational resources as the original maximum-likelihood fit (e.g., same number of trials, same optimization parameters, same initial guess, etc). Bootstrapping is only performed for the best grid size.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbd_pdr_on_best_grid_size as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (min_PDR, max_PDR, min_rholambda0 and max_rholambda0) and a reasonable parameter guess (guess_PDR and guess_rholambda0).

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the function executed successfully. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

best_fit

A named list containing the fitting results for the best grid size. This list has the same structure as the one returned by fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid.

grid_sizes

Numeric vector, listing the grid sizes as provided during the function call.

AICs

Numeric vector of the same length as grid_sizes, listing the AIC for each considered grid size. Note that some entries may be NA, if the corresponding grid sizes were not considered (if exhaustive=FALSE).

BICs

Numeric vector of the same length as grid_sizes, listing the BIC for each considered grid size. Note that some entries may be NA, if the corresponding grid sizes were not considered (if exhaustive=FALSE).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

loglikelihood_hbd

fit_hbd_model_parametric

fit_hbd_model_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid

fit_hbd_psr_on_grid

fit_hbd_psr_on_best_grid_size

model_adequacy_hbd

evaluate_spline

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu
Ntips     = 10000
rho       = 0.5 # sampling fraction
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
lambdas   = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid)
mus       = 1.5*exp(0.09*time_grid)
sim       = generate_random_tree( parameters  = list(rarefaction=rho), 
                                  max_tips    = Ntips/rho,
                                  coalescent  = TRUE,
                                  added_rates_times     = time_grid,
                                  added_birth_rates_pc  = lambdas,
                                  added_death_rates_pc  = mus)
tree = sim$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips, spans %g Myr\n",length(tree$tip.label),root_age))

# Fit PDR on grid, with the grid size chosen automatically between 1 and 5
fit = fit_hbd_pdr_on_best_grid_size(tree, 
                                    max_PDR           = 100,
                                    grid_sizes        = c(1:5),
                                    exhaustive        = FALSE,
                                    uniform_grid      = FALSE,
                                    Ntrials           = 10,
                                    Nthreads          = 4,
                                    verbose           = TRUE,
                                    max_model_runtime = 1)
if(!fit$success){
  cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
  best_fit = fit$best_fit
  cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nBest grid size=%d\n",length(best_fit$age_grid)))
  # plot fitted PDR
  plot( x     = best_fit$age_grid,
        y     = best_fit$fitted_PDR,
        main  = 'Fitted PDR',
        xlab  = 'age',
        ylab  = 'PDR',
        type  = 'b',
        xlim  = c(root_age,0))         
  # get fitted PDR as a function of age
  PDR_fun = approxfun(x=best_fit$age_grid, y=best_fit$fitted_PDR)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit pulled diversification rates of birth-death models on a time grid.

Description

Given an ultrametric timetree, estimate the pulled diversification rate of homogenous birth-death (HBD) models that best explains the tree via maximum likelihood. Every HBD model is defined by some speciation and extinction rates (λ\lambda and μ\mu) over time, as well as the sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species sampled). “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates. For any given HBD model there exists an infinite number of alternative HBD models that predict the same deterministic lineages-through-time curve and yield the same likelihood for any given reconstructed timetree; these “congruent” models cannot be distinguished from one another solely based on the tree.

Each congruence class is uniquely described by the “pulled diversification rate” (PDR; Louca et al 2018), defined as PDR=λμ+λ1dλ/dτPDR=\lambda-\mu+\lambda^{-1}d\lambda/d\tau (where τ\tau is time before present) as well as the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o (where λo\lambda_o is the present-day speciation rate). That is, two HBD models are congruent if and only if they have the same PDR and the same product ρλo\rho\lambda_o. This function is designed to estimate the generating congruence class for the tree, by fitting the PDR on a grid of discrete times as well as the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o.

Usage

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid(  tree, 
                      oldest_age            = NULL,
                      age0                  = 0,
                      age_grid              = NULL,
                      min_PDR               = -Inf,
                      max_PDR               = +Inf,
                      min_rholambda0        = 1e-10,
                      max_rholambda0        = +Inf,
                      guess_PDR             = NULL,
                      guess_rholambda0      = NULL,
                      fixed_PDR             = NULL,
                      fixed_rholambda0      = NULL,
                      splines_degree        = 1,
                      condition             = "auto",
                      relative_dt           = 1e-3,
                      Ntrials               = 1,
                      Nbootstraps           = 0,
                      Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
                      Nthreads              = 1,
                      max_model_runtime     = NULL,
                      fit_control           = list(),
                      verbose               = FALSE,
                      verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated phylogeny of a set of extant sampled species.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age, and the classical formula by Morlon et al. (2011) is used. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting, and with respect to which rholambda0 is defined. If age0>0, then rholambda0 refers to the product of the sampling fraction at age age0 and the speciation rate at age age0. See below for more details.

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing ages in ascending order at which the PDR is allowed to vary independently. This grid must cover at least the age range from age0 to oldest_age. If NULL or of length <=1 (regardless of value), then the PDR is assumed to be time-independent.

min_PDR

Numeric vector of length Ngrid (=max(1,length(age_grid))), or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted PDR at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages. Use -Inf to omit lower bounds.

max_PDR

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted PDR at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

min_rholambda0

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the lower bound for the fitted ρλo\rho\lambda_o (sampling fraction times present-day extinction rate).

max_rholambda0

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the upper bound for the fitted ρλo\rho\lambda_o. Set to +Inf to omit this upper bound.

guess_PDR

Initial guess for the PDR at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same PDR at all ages) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid specifying a separate guess at each age-grid point. To omit an initial guess for some but not all age-grid points, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

guess_rholambda0

Numeric, specifying an initial guess for the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o. If NULL, a guess will be computed automatically.

fixed_PDR

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) PDR values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (PDR is not fixed anywhere), or a single numeric (PDR fixed to the same value at all grid points) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid (PDR fixed at one or more age-grid points, use NA for non-fixed values).

fixed_rholambda0

Numeric, optionally specifying a fixed value for the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o. If NULL or NA, the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o is estimated.

splines_degree

Integer between 0 and 3 (inclusive), specifying the polynomial degree of the PDR between age-grid points. If 0, then the PDR is considered piecewise constant, if 1 then the PDR is considered piecewise linear, if 2 or 3 then the PDR is considered to be a spline of degree 2 or 3, respectively. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on. A degree of 0 is generally not recommended.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto", "stemN" or "crownN" (where N is an integer >=2), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root at that time. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage, with the process having started at oldest_age. Note that "crown" and "crownN"" really only make sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. If "stem2", the condition is that the process yielded at least two sampled tips, and similarly for "stem3" etc. If "crown3", the condition is that a splitting occurred at the root age, both child clades survived, and in total yielded at least 3 sampled tips (and similarly for "crown4" etc). If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time, when calculating the likelihood. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying an optional number of bootstrap samplings to perform, for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of maximum-likelihood fitted parameters. If 0, no bootstrapping is performed. Typical values are 10-100. At each bootstrap sampling, a random timetree is generated under the birth-death model according to the fitted PDR and ρλo\rho\lambda_o, the parameters are estimated anew based on the generated tree, and subsequently compared to the original fitted parameters. Each bootstrap sampling will use roughly the same information and similar computational resources as the original maximum-likelihood fit (e.g., same number of trials, same optimization parameters, same initial guess, etc).

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

If age0>0, the input tree is essentially trimmed at age0 (omitting anything younger than age0), and the PDR and rholambda0 are fitted to this new (shorter) tree, with time shifted appropriately. The fitted rholambda0 is thus the product of the sampling fraction at age0 and the speciation rate at age0. Note that the sampling fraction at age0 is simply the fraction of lineages extant at age0 that are represented in the timetree.

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (min_PDR, max_PDR, min_rholambda0 and max_rholambda0) and a reasonable parameter guess (guess_PDR and guess_rholambda0). It is also important that the age_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the expected major variations of the PDR over time, but keep in mind the serious risk of overfitting when age_grid is too fine and/or the tree is too small.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given timetree.

fitted_PDR

Numeric vector of size Ngrid, listing fitted or fixed pulled diversification rates (PDR) at each age-grid point. Between grid points the fitted PDR should be interpreted as a piecewise polynomial function (natural spline) of degree splines_degree; to evaluate this function at arbitrary ages use the castor routine evaluate_spline.

fitted_rholambda0

Numeric, specifying the fitted or fixed product ρλ(0)\rho\lambda(0).

guess_PDR

Numeric vector of size Ngrid, specifying the initial guess for the PDR at each age-grid point.

guess_rholambda0

Numeric, specifying the initial guess for ρλ(0)\rho\lambda(0).

age_grid

The age-grid on which the PDR is defined. This will be the same as the provided age_grid, unless the latter was NULL or of length <=1.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters. If none of the PDRs or ρλ0\rho\lambda0 were fixed, this will be equal to Ngrid+1.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of branching times), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

bootstrap_estimates

If Nbootstraps>0, this will be a named list containing the elements PDR (numeric matrix of size Nbootstraps x Ngrid, listing the fitted PDR at each grid point and for each bootstrap) and rholambda0 (a numeric vector of size Nbootstraps, listing the fitted ρλo\rho\lambda_o for each bootstrap).

standard_errors

If Nbootstraps>0, this will be a named list containing the elements PDR (numeric vector of size Ngrid, listing bootstrap-estimated standard errors for the fitted PDRs) and rholambda0 (a single numeric, bootstrap-estimated standard error for the fitted ρλo\rho\lambda_o).

medians

If Nbootstraps>0, this will be a named list containing the elements PDR (numeric vector of size Ngrid, listing median fitted PDRs across bootstraps) and rholambda0 (a single numeric, median fitted ρλo\rho\lambda_o across bootstraps).

CI50lower

If Nbootstraps>0, this will be a named list containing the elements PDR (numeric vector of size Ngrid, listing bootstrap-estimated lower bounds of the 50-percent confidence intervals for the fitted PDRs) and rholambda0 (a single numeric, bootstrap-estimated lower bound of the 50-percent confidence intervals for the fitted ρλo\rho\lambda_o).

CI50upper

Similar to CI50lower, listing upper bounds of 50-percentile confidence intervals.

CI95lower

Similar to CI50lower, listing lower bounds of 95-percentile confidence intervals.

CI95upper

Similar to CI95lower, listing upper bounds of 95-percentile confidence intervals.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

loglikelihood_hbd

fit_hbd_model_parametric

fit_hbd_model_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric

model_adequacy_hbd

evaluate_spline

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu
Ntips     = 10000
rho       = 0.5 # sampling fraction
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
lambdas   = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid)
mus       = 1.5*exp(0.09*time_grid)
sim       = generate_random_tree( parameters  = list(rarefaction=rho), 
                                  max_tips    = Ntips/rho,
                                  coalescent  = TRUE,
                                  added_rates_times     = time_grid,
                                  added_birth_rates_pc  = lambdas,
                                  added_death_rates_pc  = mus)
tree = sim$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips, spans %g Myr\n",length(tree$tip.label),root_age))

# calculate true PDR
lambda_slopes = diff(lambdas)/diff(time_grid);
lambda_slopes = c(lambda_slopes[1],lambda_slopes)
PDRs = lambdas - mus - (lambda_slopes/lambdas)


# Fit PDR on grid
Ngrid     = 10
age_grid  = seq(from=0,to=root_age,length.out=Ngrid)
fit = fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid(tree, 
          age_grid    = age_grid,
          min_PDR     = -100,
          max_PDR     = +100,
          condition   = "crown",
          Ntrials     = 10,	# perform 10 fitting trials
          Nthreads    = 2,	# use two CPUs
          max_model_runtime = 1) 	# limit model evaluation to 1 second
if(!fit$success){
  cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
  cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nLoglikelihood=%g\n",fit$loglikelihood))
  
  # plot fitted & true PDR
  plot( x     = fit$age_grid,
        y     = fit$fitted_PDR,
        main  = 'Fitted & true PDR',
        xlab  = 'age',
        ylab  = 'PDR',
        type  = 'b',
        col   = 'red',
        xlim  = c(root_age,0)) 
  lines(x     = sim$final_time-time_grid,
        y     = PDRs,
        type  = 'l',
        col   = 'blue');
        
  # get fitted PDR as a function of age
  PDR_fun = approxfun(x=fit$age_grid, y=fit$fitted_PDR)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit parameterized pulled diversification rates of birth-death models.

Description

Given an ultrametric timetree, estimate the pulled diversification rate (PDR) of homogenous birth-death (HBD) models that best explains the tree via maximum likelihood, assuming that the PDR is given as a parameterized function of time before present. Every HBD model is defined by some speciation and extinction rates (λ\lambda and μ\mu) over time, as well as the sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species sampled). “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates. For any given HBD model there exists an infinite number of alternative HBD models that generate extant trees with the same probability distributions and yield the same likelihood for any given extant timetree; these “congruent” models cannot be distinguished from one another solely based on an extant timetree.

Each congruence class is uniquely described by its PDR, defined as PDR=λμ+λ1dλ/dτPDR=\lambda-\mu+\lambda^{-1}d\lambda/d\tau (where τ\tau is time before present) as well as the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o (where λo\lambda_o is the present-day speciation rate). That is, two HBD models are congruent if and only if they have the same PDR and the same product ρλo\rho\lambda_o. This function is designed to estimate the generating congruence class for the tree, by fitting a finite number of parameters defining the PDR and ρλo\rho\lambda_o.

Usage

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric( tree, 
                        param_values,
                        param_guess        = NULL,
                        param_min          = -Inf,
                        param_max          = +Inf,
                        param_scale        = NULL,
                        oldest_age         = NULL,
                        age0               = 0,
                        PDR,
                        rholambda0,
                        age_grid           = NULL,
                        condition          = "auto",
                        relative_dt        = 1e-3,
                        Ntrials            = 1,
                        max_start_attempts = 1,
                        Nthreads           = 1,
                        max_model_runtime  = NULL,
                        fit_control        = list())

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated phylogeny of a set of extant sampled species.

param_values

Numeric vector, specifying fixed values for a some or all model parameters. For fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters, use NaN or NA. For example, the vector c(1.5,NA,40) specifies that the 1st and 3rd model parameters are fixed at the values 1.5 and 40, respectively, while the 2nd parameter is to be fitted. The length of this vector defines the total number of model parameters. If entries in this vector are named, the names are taken as parameter names. Names should be included if you'd like returned parameter vectors to have named entries, or if the functions PDR or rho query parameter values by name (as opposed to numeric index).

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, specifying a first guess for the value of each model parameter. For fixed parameters, guess values are ignored. Can be NULL only if all model parameters are fixed.

param_min

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying lower bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same lower bound is applied to all parameters. Use -Inf to omit a lower bound for a parameter. If NULL, no lower bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, lower bounds are ignored.

param_max

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying upper bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same upper bound is applied to all parameters. Use +Inf to omit an upper bound for a parameter. If NULL, no upper bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, upper bounds are ignored.

param_scale

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying typical scales for model parameters. If of size 1, the same scale is assumed for all parameters. If NULL, scales are determined automatically. For fixed parameters, scales are ignored. It is strongly advised to provide reasonable scales, as this facilitates the numeric optimization algorithm.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age, and the classical formula by Morlon et al. (2011) is used. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting, and with respect to which rholambda0 is defined. If age0>0, then rholambda0 refers to the product of the sampling fraction at age age0 and the speciation rate at age age0. See below for more details.

PDR

Function specifying the pulled diversification rate at any given age (time before present) and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more ages) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument. Can also be a single number (i.e., PDR is fixed).

rholambda0

Function specifying the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o (sampling fraction times speciation rate at age0) for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly one argument, a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a strictly positive numeric. Can also be a single number (i.e., rholambda0 is fixed).

age_grid

Numeric vector, specifying ages at which the PDR function should be evaluated. This age grid must be fine enough to capture the possible variation in the PDR over time, within the permissible parameter range. If of size 1, then the PDR is assumed to be time-independent. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and must cover at least the full considered age interval (from age0 to oldest_age). Can also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case the PDR is assumed to be time-independent.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto", "stemN" or "crownN" (where N is an integer >=2), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root at that time. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage, with the process having started at oldest_age. Note that "crown" and "crownN"" really only make sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. If "stem2", the condition is that the process yielded at least two sampled tips, and similarly for "stem3" etc. If "crown3", the condition is that a splitting occurred at the root age, both child clades survived, and in total yielded at least 3 sampled tips (and similarly for "crown4" etc). If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time, when calculating the likelihood. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

max_start_attempts

Integer, specifying the number of times to attempt finding a valid start point (per trial) before giving up on that trial. Randomly choosen extreme start parameters may occasionally result in Inf/undefined likelihoods, so this option allows the algorithm to keep looking for valid starting points.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

Details

This function is designed to estimate a finite set of scalar parameters (p1,..,pnRp_1,..,p_n\in\R) that determine the PDR and the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o (sampling fraction times present-dat extinction rate), by maximizing the likelihood of observing a given timetree under the HBD model. For example, the investigator may assume that the PDR varies exponentially over time, i.e. can be described by PDR(t)=AeBtPDR(t)=A\cdot e^{-B t} (where AA and BB are unknown coefficients and tt is time before present), and that the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o is unknown. In this case the model has 3 free parameters, p1=Ap_1=A, p2=Bp_2=B and p3=ρλop_3=\rho\lambda_o, each of which may be fitted to the tree.

If age0>0, the input tree is essentially trimmed at age0 (omitting anything younger than age0), and the PDR and rholambda0 are fitted to this new (shorter) tree, with time shifted appropriately. The fitted rholambda0 is thus the product of the sampling fraction at age0 and the speciation rate at age0. Note that the sampling fraction at age0 is simply the fraction of lineages extant at age0 that are represented in the timetree. Most users will typically want to leave age0=0.

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbd_pdr_parametric as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (param_min and param_max), a reasonable parameter guess (param_guess) and reasonable parameter scales param_scale. If some model parameters can vary over multiple orders of magnitude, it is advised to transform them so that they vary across fewer orders of magnitude (e.g., via log-transformation). It is also important that the age_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the variation of the PDR over time, since the likelihood is calculated under the assumption that both vary linearly between grid points.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

param_fitted

Numeric vector of size NP (number of model parameters), listing all fitted or fixed model parameters in their standard order (see details above). If param_names was provided, elements in fitted_params will be named.

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, listing guessed or fixed values for all model parameters in their standard order.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given timetree.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) model parameters.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of branching times), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

trial_start_objectives

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the initial objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial, i.e. at the start parameter values.

trial_objective_values

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the final maximized objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial.

trial_Nstart_attempts

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of start attempts for each fitting trial, until a starting point with valid likelihood was found.

trial_Niterations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of iterations needed for each fitting trial.

trial_Nevaluations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of likelihood evaluations needed for each fitting trial.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

H. Morlon, T. L. Parsons, J. B. Plotkin (2011). Reconciling molecular phylogenies with the fossil record. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108:16327-16332.

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

loglikelihood_hbd

fit_hbd_model_on_grid

fit_hbd_model_parametric

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid

fit_hbd_psr_parametric

model_adequacy_hbd

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu
Ntips     = 10000
rho       = 0.5 # sampling fraction
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
lambdas   = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid)
mus       = 1.5*exp(0.09*time_grid)
tree      = generate_random_tree( parameters  = list(rarefaction=rho), 
                                  max_tips    = Ntips/rho,
                                  coalescent  = TRUE,
                                  added_rates_times     = time_grid,
                                  added_birth_rates_pc  = lambdas,
                                  added_death_rates_pc  = mus)$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips, spans %g Myr\n",length(tree$tip.label),root_age))

# Define a parametric HBD congruence class, with exponentially varying PDR
# The model thus has 3 parameters
PDR_function = function(ages,params){
	return(params['A']*exp(-params['B']*ages));
}
rholambda0_function = function(params){
	return(params['rholambda0'])
}

# Define an age grid on which PDR_function shall be evaluated
# Should be sufficiently fine to capture the variation in the PDR
age_grid = seq(from=0,to=100,by=0.01)

# Perform fitting
cat(sprintf("Fitting class to tree..\n"))
fit = fit_hbd_pdr_parametric(	tree, 
                      param_values  = c(A=NA, B=NA, rholambda0=NA),
                      param_guess   = c(1,0,1),
                      param_min     = c(-10,-10,0),
                      param_max     = c(10,10,10),
                      param_scale   = 1, # all params are in the order of 1
                      PDR           = PDR_function,
                      rholambda0    = rholambda0_function,
                      age_grid      = age_grid,
                      Ntrials       = 10,    # perform 10 fitting trials
                      Nthreads      = 2,     # use 2 CPUs
                      max_model_runtime = 1, # limit model evaluation to 1 second
                      fit_control       = list(rel.tol=1e-6))
if(!fit$success){
	cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
	cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nLoglikelihood=%g\n",fit$loglikelihood))
	print(fit)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit pulled speciation rates of birth-death models on a time grid with optimal size.

Description

Given an ultrametric timetree, estimate the pulled speciation rate of homogenous birth-death (HBD) models that best explains the tree via maximum likelihood, automatically determining the optimal time-grid size based on the data. Every HBD model is defined by some speciation and extinction rates (λ\lambda and μ\mu) over time, as well as the sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species sampled). “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates. For any given HBD model there exists an infinite number of alternative HBD models that predict the same deterministic lineages-through-time curve and yield the same likelihood for any given reconstructed timetree; these “congruent” models cannot be distinguished from one another solely based on the tree.

Each congruence class is uniquely described by the “pulled speciation rate” (PSR), defined as the relative slope of the deterministic LTT over time, PSR=M1dM/dτPSR=-M^{-1}dM/d\tau (where τ\tau is time before present). In other words, two HBD models are congruent if and only if they have the same PSR. This function is designed to estimate the generating congruence class for the tree, by fitting the PSR on a discrete time grid. Internally, the function uses fit_hbd_psr_on_grid to perform the fitting. The "best" grid size is determined based on some optimality criterion, such as AIC.

Usage

fit_hbd_psr_on_best_grid_size(tree,
                              oldest_age            = NULL,
                              age0                  = 0,
                              grid_sizes            = c(1,10),
                              uniform_grid          = FALSE,
                              criterion             = "AIC",
                              exhaustive            = TRUE,
                              min_PSR               = 0,
                              max_PSR               = +Inf,
                              guess_PSR             = NULL,
                              fixed_PSR             = NULL,
                              splines_degree        = 1,
                              condition             = "auto",
                              relative_dt           = 1e-3,
                              Ntrials               = 1,
                              Nbootstraps           = 0,
                              Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
                              Nthreads              = 1,
                              max_model_runtime	    = NULL,
                              fit_control           = list(),
                              verbose               = FALSE,
                              verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated phylogeny of a set of extant sampled species.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting. If age0>0, the tree essentially is trimmed at age0, omitting anything younger than age0, and the PSR is fitted to the trimmed tree while shifting time appropriately.

grid_sizes

Numeric vector, listing alternative grid sizes to consider.

uniform_grid

Logical, specifying whether to use uniform time grids (equal time intervals) or non-uniform time grids (more grid points towards the present, where more data are available).

criterion

Character, specifying which criterion to use for selecting the best grid. Options are "AIC" and "BIC".

exhaustive

Logical, whether to try all grid sizes before choosing the best one. If FALSE, the grid size is gradually increased until the selection criterio (e.g., AIC) starts becoming worse, at which point the search is halted. This avoids fitting models with excessive grid sizes when an optimum already seems to have been found at a smaller grid size.

min_PSR

Numeric vector of length Ngrid (=max(1,length(age_grid))), or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted PSR at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages. Note that the PSR is never negative.

max_PSR

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted PSR at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

guess_PSR

Initial guess for the PSR at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing a constant PSR at all ages), or a function handle (for generating guesses at each grid point; this function may also return NA at some time points for which a guess shall be computed automatically).

fixed_PSR

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) PSR values. Either NULL (none of the PSR values are fixed) or a function handle specifying the PSR for any arbitrary age (PSR will be fixed at any age for which this function returns a finite number). The function fixed_PSR() need not return finite values for all times, in fact doing so would mean that the PSR is not fitted anywhere.

splines_degree

Integer between 0 and 3 (inclusive), specifying the polynomial degree of the PSR between age-grid points. If 0, then the PSR is considered piecewise constant, if 1 then the PSR is considered piecewise linear, if 2 or 3 then the PSR is considered to be a spline of degree 2 or 3, respectively. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on. A degree of 0 is generally not recommended.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto", "stemN" or "crownN" (where N is an integer >=2), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root at that time. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage, with the process having started at oldest_age. Note that "crown" and "crownN"" really only make sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. If "stem2", the condition is that the process yielded at least two sampled tips, and similarly for "stem3" etc. If "crown3", the condition is that a splitting occurred at the root age, both child clades survived, and in total yielded at least 3 sampled tips (and similarly for "crown4" etc). If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time, when calculating the likelihood. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying an optional number of bootstrap samplings to perform, for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of maximum-likelihood fitted parameters. If 0, no bootstrapping is performed. Typical values are 10-100. At each bootstrap sampling, a random timetree is generated under the birth-death model according to the fitted PSR, the parameters are estimated anew based on the generated tree, and subsequently compared to the original fitted parameters. Each bootstrap sampling will use roughly the same information and similar computational resources as the original maximum-likelihood fit (e.g., same number of trials, same optimization parameters, same initial guess, etc). Bootstrapping is only performed for the best grid size.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbd_psr_on_best_grid_size as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (min_PSR and max_PSR) and a reasonable parameter guess (guess_PSR).

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the function executed successfully. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

best_fit

A named list containing the fitting results for the best grid size. This list has the same structure as the one returned by fit_hbd_psr_on_grid.

grid_sizes

Numeric vector, listing the grid sizes as provided during the function call.

AICs

Numeric vector of the same length as grid_sizes, listing the AIC for each considered grid size. Note that some entries may be NA, if the corresponding grid sizes were not considered (if exhaustive=FALSE).

BICs

Numeric vector of the same length as grid_sizes, listing the BIC for each considered grid size. Note that some entries may be NA, if the corresponding grid sizes were not considered (if exhaustive=FALSE).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

loglikelihood_hbd

fit_hbd_model_parametric

fit_hbd_model_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid

fit_hbd_psr_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_on_best_grid_size

model_adequacy_hbd

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu
Ntips     = 10000
rho       = 0.5 # sampling fraction
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
lambdas   = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid)
mus       = 1.5*exp(0.09*time_grid)
sim       = generate_random_tree( parameters  = list(rarefaction=rho), 
                                  max_tips    = Ntips/rho,
                                  coalescent  = TRUE,
                                  added_rates_times     = time_grid,
                                  added_birth_rates_pc  = lambdas,
                                  added_death_rates_pc  = mus)
tree = sim$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips, spans %g Myr\n",length(tree$tip.label),root_age))

# Fit PSR on grid, with the grid size chosen automatically between 1 and 5
fit = fit_hbd_psr_on_best_grid_size(tree, 
                                    max_PSR           = 100,
                                    grid_sizes        = c(1:5),
                                    exhaustive        = FALSE,
                                    uniform_grid      = FALSE,
                                    Ntrials           = 10,
                                    Nthreads          = 4,
                                    verbose           = TRUE,
                                    max_model_runtime = 1)
if(!fit$success){
  cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
  best_fit = fit$best_fit
  cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nBest grid size=%d\n",length(best_fit$age_grid)))
  # plot fitted PSR
  plot( x     = best_fit$age_grid,
        y     = best_fit$fitted_PSR,
        main  = 'Fitted PSR',
        xlab  = 'age',
        ylab  = 'PSR',
        type  = 'b',
        xlim  = c(root_age,0))         
  # get fitted PSR as a function of age
  PSR_fun = approxfun(x=best_fit$age_grid, y=best_fit$fitted_PSR)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit pulled speciation rates of birth-death models on a time grid.

Description

Given an ultrametric timetree, estimate the pulled speciation rate of homogenous birth-death (HBD) models that best explains the tree via maximum likelihood. Every HBD model is defined by some speciation and extinction rates (λ\lambda and μ\mu) over time, as well as the sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species sampled). “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates. For any given HBD model there exists an infinite number of alternative HBD models that predict the same deterministic lineages-through-time curve and yield the same likelihood for any given reconstructed timetree; these “congruent” models cannot be distinguished from one another solely based on the tree.

Each congruence class is uniquely described by the “pulled speciation rate” (PSR), defined as the relative slope of the deterministic LTT over time, PSR=M1dM/dτPSR=-M^{-1}dM/d\tau (where τ\tau is time before present). In other words, two HBD models are congruent if and only if they have the same PSR. This function is designed to estimate the generating congruence class for the tree, by fitting the PSR on a discrete time grid.

Usage

fit_hbd_psr_on_grid(  tree, 
                      oldest_age            = NULL,
                      age0                  = 0,
                      age_grid              = NULL,
                      min_PSR               = 0,
                      max_PSR               = +Inf,
                      guess_PSR             = NULL,
                      fixed_PSR             = NULL,
                      splines_degree        = 1,
                      condition             = "auto",
                      relative_dt           = 1e-3,
                      Ntrials               = 1,
                      Nbootstraps           = 0,
                      Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
                      Nthreads              = 1,
                      max_model_runtime     = NULL,
                      fit_control           = list(),
                      verbose               = FALSE,
                      diagnostics           = FALSE,
                      verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated phylogeny of a set of extant sampled species.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age, and the classical formula by Morlon et al. (2011) is used. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting. If age0>0, the tree essentially is trimmed at age0, omitting anything younger than age0, and the PSR is fitted to the trimmed tree while shifting time appropriately.

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing ages in ascending order at which the PSR is allowed to vary independently. This grid must cover at least the age range from age0 to oldest_age. If NULL or of length <=1 (regardless of value), then the PSR is assumed to be time-independent.

min_PSR

Numeric vector of length Ngrid (=max(1,length(age_grid))), or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted PSR at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages. Note that the PSR is never negative.

max_PSR

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted PSR at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

guess_PSR

Initial guess for the PSR at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same PSR at all ages) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid specifying a separate guess at each age-grid point. To omit an initial guess for some but not all age-grid points, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

fixed_PSR

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) PSR values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (PSR is not fixed anywhere), or a single numeric (PSR fixed to the same value at all grid points) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid (PSR fixed at one or more age-grid points, use NA for non-fixed values).

splines_degree

Integer between 0 and 3 (inclusive), specifying the polynomial degree of the PSR between age-grid points. If 0, then the PSR is considered piecewise constant, if 1 then the PSR is considered piecewise linear, if 2 or 3 then the PSR is considered to be a spline of degree 2 or 3, respectively. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on. A degree of 0 is generally not recommended.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto", "stemN" or "crownN" (where N is an integer >=2), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root at that time. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage, with the process having started at oldest_age. Note that "crown" and "crownN"" really only make sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. If "stem2", the condition is that the process yielded at least two sampled tips, and similarly for "stem3" etc. If "crown3", the condition is that a splitting occurred at the root age, both child clades survived, and in total yielded at least 3 sampled tips (and similarly for "crown4" etc). If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time, when calculating the likelihood. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying an optional number of bootstrap samplings to perform, for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of maximum-likelihood fitted parameters. If 0, no bootstrapping is performed. Typical values are 10-100. At each bootstrap sampling, a random timetree is generated under the birth-death model according to the fitted PSR, the parameters are estimated anew based on the generated tree, and subsequently compared to the original fitted parameters. Each bootstrap sampling will use roughly the same information and similar computational resources as the original maximum-likelihood fit (e.g., same number of trials, same optimization parameters, same initial guess, etc).

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

diagnostics

Logical, specifying whether to print detailed information (such as model likelihoods) at every iteration of the fitting routine. For debugging purposes mainly.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbd_psr_on_grid as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (min_PSR and max_PSR) and a reasonable parameter guess (guess_PSR). It is also important that the age_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the expected major variations of the PSR over time, but keep in mind the serious risk of overfitting when age_grid is too fine and/or the tree is too small.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given timetree.

fitted_PSR

Numeric vector of size Ngrid, listing fitted or fixed pulled speciation rates (PSR) at each age-grid point. Between grid points the fitted PSR should be interpreted as a piecewise polynomial function (natural spline) of degree splines_degree; to evaluate this function at arbitrary ages use the castor routine evaluate_spline.

guess_PSR

Numeric vector of size Ngrid, specifying the initial guess for the PSR at each age-grid point.

age_grid

The age-grid on which the PSR is defined. This will be the same as the provided age_grid, unless the latter was NULL or of length <=1.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters. If none of the PSRs were fixed, this will be equal to Ngrid.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of branching times), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

bootstrap_estimates

If Nbootstraps>0, this will be a numeric matrix of size Nbootstraps x Ngrid, listing the fitted PSR at each grid point and for each bootstrap.

standard_errors

If Nbootstraps>0, this will be a numeric vector of size NGrid, listing bootstrap-estimated standard errors for the fitted PSR at each grid point.

CI50lower

If Nbootstraps>0, this will be a numeric vector of size Ngrid, listing bootstrap-estimated lower bounds of the 50-percent confidence intervals for the fitted PSR at each grid point.

CI50upper

Similar to CI50lower, listing upper bounds of 50-percentile confidence intervals.

CI95lower

Similar to CI50lower, listing lower bounds of 95-percentile confidence intervals.

CI95upper

Similar to CI95lower, listing upper bounds of 95-percentile confidence intervals.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

loglikelihood_hbd

fit_hbd_model_parametric

fit_hbd_model_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid

fit_hbd_psr_on_best_grid_size

model_adequacy_hbd

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu
Ntips     = 10000
rho       = 0.5 # sampling fraction
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
lambdas   = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid)
mus       = 1.5*exp(0.09*time_grid)
sim       = generate_random_tree( parameters  = list(rarefaction=rho), 
                                  max_tips    = Ntips/rho,
                                  coalescent  = TRUE,
                                  added_rates_times     = time_grid,
                                  added_birth_rates_pc  = lambdas,
                                  added_death_rates_pc  = mus)
tree = sim$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips, spans %g Myr\n",length(tree$tip.label),root_age))

# Fit PSR on grid
oldest_age=root_age/2 # only consider recent times when fitting
Ngrid     = 10
age_grid  = seq(from=0,to=oldest_age,length.out=Ngrid)
fit = fit_hbd_psr_on_grid(tree, 
          oldest_age  = oldest_age,
          age_grid    = age_grid,
          min_PSR     = 0,
          max_PSR     = +100,
          condition   = "crown",
          Ntrials     = 10,
          Nthreads    = 4,
          max_model_runtime = 1) 	# limit model evaluation to 1 second
if(!fit$success){
  cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
  cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nLoglikelihood=%g\n",fit$loglikelihood))
  # plot fitted PSR
  plot( x     = fit$age_grid,
        y     = fit$fitted_PSR,
        main  = 'Fitted PSR',
        xlab  = 'age',
        ylab  = 'PSR',
        type  = 'b',
        xlim  = c(root_age,0)) 
        
 # plot deterministic LTT of fitted model
  plot( x     = fit$age_grid,
        y     = fit$fitted_LTT,
        main  = 'Fitted dLTT',
        xlab  = 'age',
        ylab  = 'lineages',
        type  = 'b',
        log   = 'y',
        xlim  = c(root_age,0)) 

  # get fitted PSR as a function of age
  PSR_fun = approxfun(x=fit$age_grid, y=fit$fitted_PSR)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit parameterized pulled speciation rates of birth-death models.

Description

Given an ultrametric timetree, estimate the pulled speciation rate (PSR) of homogenous birth-death (HBD) models that best explains the tree via maximum likelihood, assuming that the PSR is given as a parameterized function of time before present. Every HBD model is defined by some speciation and extinction rates (λ\lambda and μ\mu) over time, as well as the sampling fraction ρ\rho (fraction of extant species sampled). “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates. For any given HBD model there exists an infinite number of alternative HBD models that generate extant trees with the same probability distributions and yield the same likelihood for any given extant timetree; these “congruent” models cannot be distinguished from one another solely based on an extant timetree.

Each congruence class is uniquely described by its PSR, defined as PSR=λ(1E)PSR=\lambda\cdot(1-E), where τ\tau is time before present and 1E(τ)1-E(\tau) is the probability that a lineage alive at age τ\tau will survive to the present and be included in the extant tree. That is, two HBD models are congruent if and only if they have the same PSR profile. This function is designed to estimate the generating congruence class for the tree, by fitting a finite number of parameters defining the PSR.

Usage

fit_hbd_psr_parametric( tree, 
                        param_values,
                        param_guess        = NULL,
                        param_min          = -Inf,
                        param_max          = +Inf,
                        param_scale        = NULL,
                        oldest_age         = NULL,
                        age0               = 0,
                        PSR,
                        age_grid           = NULL,
                        condition          = "auto",
                        relative_dt        = 1e-3,
                        Ntrials            = 1,
                        max_start_attempts = 1,
                        Nthreads           = 1,
                        max_model_runtime  = NULL,
                        fit_control        = list(),
                        verbose            = FALSE,
                        diagnostics        = FALSE,
                        verbose_prefix     = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated phylogeny of a set of extant sampled species.

param_values

Numeric vector, specifying fixed values for a some or all model parameters. For fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters, use NaN or NA. For example, the vector c(1.5,NA,40) specifies that the 1st and 3rd model parameters are fixed at the values 1.5 and 40, respectively, while the 2nd parameter is to be fitted. The length of this vector defines the total number of model parameters. If entries in this vector are named, the names are taken as parameter names. Names should be included if you'd like returned parameter vectors to have named entries, or if the function PSR queries parameter values by name (as opposed to numeric index).

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, specifying a first guess for the value of each model parameter. For fixed parameters, guess values are ignored. Can be NULL only if all model parameters are fixed.

param_min

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying lower bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same lower bound is applied to all parameters. Use -Inf to omit a lower bound for a parameter. If NULL, no lower bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, lower bounds are ignored.

param_max

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying upper bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same upper bound is applied to all parameters. Use +Inf to omit an upper bound for a parameter. If NULL, no upper bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, upper bounds are ignored.

param_scale

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying typical scales for model parameters. If of size 1, the same scale is assumed for all parameters. If NULL, scales are determined automatically. For fixed parameters, scales are ignored. It is strongly advised to provide reasonable scales, as this facilitates the numeric optimization algorithm.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age, and the classical formula by Morlon et al. (2011) is used. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting, and with respect to which PSR is defined. See below for more details. Most users will typically keep age0=0.

PSR

Function specifying the pulled speciation rate at any given age (time before present) and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more ages) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument.

age_grid

Numeric vector, specifying ages at which the PSR function should be evaluated. This age grid must be fine enough to capture the possible variation in the PSR over time, within the permissible parameter range. If of size 1, then the PSR is assumed to be time-independent. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and must cover at least the full considered age interval (from age0 to oldest_age). Can also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case the PSR is assumed to be time-independent.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto", "stemN" or "crownN" (where N is an integer >=2), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root at that time. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage, with the process having started at oldest_age. Note that "crown" and "crownN"" really only make sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. If "stem2", the condition is that the process yielded at least two sampled tips, and similarly for "stem3" etc. If "crown3", the condition is that a splitting occurred at the root age, both child clades survived, and in total yielded at least 3 sampled tips (and similarly for "crown4" etc). If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time, when calculating the likelihood. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

max_start_attempts

Integer, specifying the number of times to attempt finding a valid start point (per trial) before giving up on that trial. Randomly choosen extreme start parameters may occasionally result in Inf/undefined likelihoods, so this option allows the algorithm to keep looking for valid starting points.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

diagnostics

Logical, specifying whether to print detailed information (such as model likelihoods) at every iteration of the fitting routine. For debugging purposes mainly.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

This function is designed to estimate a finite set of scalar parameters (p1,..,pnRp_1,..,p_n\in\R) that determine the PSR and the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o (sampling fraction times present-dat extinction rate), by maximizing the likelihood of observing a given timetree under the HBD model. For example, the investigator may assume that the PSR varies exponentially over time, i.e. can be described by PSR(t)=AeBtPSR(t)=A\cdot e^{-B t} (where AA and BB are unknown coefficients and tt is time before present); in this case the model has 2 free parameters, p1=Ap_1=A and p2=Bp_2=B, each of which may be fitted to the tree. It is also possible to include explicit dependencies on environmental parameters (e.g., temperature). For example, the investigator may assume that the PSR depends exponentially on global average temperature, i.e. can be described by PSR(t)=AeBT(t)PSR(t)=A\cdot e^{-B T(t)} (where AA and BB are unknown fitted parameters and T(t)T(t) is temperature at time tt). To incorporate such environmental dependencies, one can simply define the function PSR appropriately.

If age0>0, the input tree is essentially trimmed at age0 (omitting anything younger than age0), and the PSR is fitted to this new (shorter) tree, with time shifted appropriately. The fitted PSR(t) is thus the product of the speciation rate at time tt and the probability of a lineage being in the tree at time age0. Most users will typically want to leave age0=0.

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbd_psr_parametric as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (param_min and param_max), a reasonable parameter guess (param_guess) and reasonable parameter scales param_scale. If some model parameters can vary over multiple orders of magnitude, it is advised to transform them so that they vary across fewer orders of magnitude (e.g., via log-transformation). It is also important that the age_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the variation of the PSR over time, since the likelihood is calculated under the assumption that both vary linearly between grid points.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

param_fitted

Numeric vector of size NP (number of model parameters), listing all fitted or fixed model parameters in their standard order (see details above). If param_names was provided, elements in fitted_params will be named.

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, listing guessed or fixed values for all model parameters in their standard order.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given timetree.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) model parameters.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of branching times), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

trial_start_objectives

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the initial objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial, i.e. at the start parameter values.

trial_objective_values

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the final maximized objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial.

trial_Nstart_attempts

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of start attempts for each fitting trial, until a starting point with valid likelihood was found.

trial_Niterations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of iterations needed for each fitting trial.

trial_Nevaluations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of likelihood evaluations needed for each fitting trial.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

H. Morlon, T. L. Parsons, J. B. Plotkin (2011). Reconciling molecular phylogenies with the fossil record. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108:16327-16332.

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

S. Louca (2020). Simulating trees with millions of species. Bioinformatics. 36:2907-2908.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

loglikelihood_hbd

fit_hbd_model_on_grid

fit_hbd_model_parametric

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric

model_adequacy_hbd

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu
Ntips     = 10000
rho       = 0.5 # sampling fraction
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
lambdas   = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid)
mus       = 1.5*exp(0.09*time_grid)
tree      = generate_random_tree( parameters  = list(rarefaction=rho), 
                                  max_tips    = Ntips/rho,
                                  coalescent  = TRUE,
                                  added_rates_times     = time_grid,
                                  added_birth_rates_pc  = lambdas,
                                  added_death_rates_pc  = mus)$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips, spans %g Myr\n",length(tree$tip.label),root_age))

# Define a parametric HBD congruence class, with exponentially varying PSR
# The model thus has 2 parameters
PSR_function = function(ages,params){
	return(params['A']*exp(-params['B']*ages));
}

# Define an age grid on which PSR_function shall be evaluated
# Should be sufficiently fine to capture the variation in the PSR
age_grid = seq(from=0,to=100,by=0.01)

# Perform fitting
cat(sprintf("Fitting class to tree..\n"))
fit = fit_hbd_psr_parametric(	tree, 
                      param_values  = c(A=NA, B=NA),
                      param_guess   = c(1,0),
                      param_min     = c(-10,-10),
                      param_max     = c(10,10),
                      param_scale   = 1, # all params are in the order of 1
                      PSR           = PSR_function,
                      age_grid      = age_grid,
                      Ntrials       = 10,    # perform 10 fitting trials
                      Nthreads      = 2,     # use 2 CPUs
                      max_model_runtime = 1, # limit model evaluation to 1 second
                      fit_control       = list(rel.tol=1e-6))
if(!fit$success){
	cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
	cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nLoglikelihood=%g\n",fit$loglikelihood))
	print(fit)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit a homogenous birth-death-sampling model on a discrete time grid.

Description

Given a timetree (potentially sampled through time and not necessarily ultrametric), fit a homogenous birth-death-sampling (HBDS) model in which speciation, extinction and lineage sampling occurs at some continuous (Poissonian) rates λ\lambda, μ\mu and ψ\psi, which are defined on a fixed grid of discrete time points and assumed to vary polynomially between grid points. Sampled lineages are kept in the pool of extant lineages at some “retention probability” κ\kappa, which may also depend on time. In addition, this model can include concentrated sampling attempts (CSAs) at a finite set of discrete time points t1,..,tmt_1,..,t_m. “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction/sampling rates. Every HBDS model is thus defined based on the values that λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa take over time, as well as the sampling probabilities ρ1,..,ρm\rho_1,..,\rho_m and retention probabilities κ1,..,κm\kappa_1,..,\kappa_m during the concentrated sampling attempts. This function estimates the values of λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa on each grid point, as well as the ρ1,..,ρm\rho_1,..,\rho_m and κ1,..,κm\kappa_1,..,\kappa_m, by maximizing the corresponding likelihood of the timetree. Special cases of this model (when rates are piecewise constant through time) are sometimes known as “birth-death-skyline plots” in the literature (Stadler 2013). In epidemiology, these models are often used to describe the phylogenies of viral strains sampled over the course of the epidemic.

Usage

fit_hbds_model_on_grid( tree, 
                        root_age                = NULL,
                        oldest_age              = NULL,
                        age_grid                = NULL,
                        CSA_ages                = NULL,
                        min_lambda              = 0,
                        max_lambda              = +Inf,
                        min_mu                  = 0,
                        max_mu                  = +Inf,
                        min_psi                 = 0,
                        max_psi                 = +Inf,
                        min_kappa               = 0,
                        max_kappa               = 1,
                        min_CSA_probs           = 0,
                        max_CSA_probs           = 1,
                        min_CSA_kappas          = 0,
                        max_CSA_kappas          = 1,
                        guess_lambda            = NULL,
                        guess_mu                = NULL,
                        guess_psi               = NULL,
                        guess_kappa             = NULL,
                        guess_CSA_probs         = NULL,
                        guess_CSA_kappas        = NULL,
                        fixed_lambda            = NULL,
                        fixed_mu                = NULL,
                        fixed_psi               = NULL,
                        fixed_kappa             = NULL,
                        fixed_CSA_probs         = NULL,
                        fixed_CSA_kappas        = NULL,
                        fixed_age_grid          = NULL,
                        const_lambda            = FALSE,
                        const_mu                = FALSE,
                        const_psi               = FALSE,
                        const_kappa             = FALSE,
                        const_CSA_probs         = FALSE,
                        const_CSA_kappas        = FALSE,
                        splines_degree          = 1,
                        condition               = "auto",
                        ODE_relative_dt         = 0.001,
                        ODE_relative_dy         = 1e-3,
                        CSA_age_epsilon         = NULL,
                        Ntrials                 = 1,
                        max_start_attempts      = 1,
                        Nthreads                = 1,
                        max_model_runtime       = NULL,
                        Nbootstraps             = 0,
                        Ntrials_per_bootstrap   = NULL,
                        fit_control             = list(),
                        focal_param_values      = NULL,
                        verbose                 = FALSE,
                        diagnostics             = FALSE,
                        verbose_prefix          = "")

Arguments

tree

A timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated reconstructed phylogeny of a set of extant and/or extinct species. Tips of the tree are interpreted as terminally sampled lineages, while monofurcating nodes are interpreted as non-terminally sampled lineages, i.e., lineages sampled at some past time point and with subsequently sampled descendants.

root_age

Positive numeric, specifying the age of the tree's root. Can be used to define a time offset, e.g. if the last tip was not actually sampled at the present. If NULL, this will be calculated from the tree and it will be assumed that the last tip was sampled at the present.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is interpreted as the stem age. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBDS model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing ages in ascending order, on which λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa are fitted and allowed to vary independently. This grid must cover at least the age range from the present (age 0) to oldest_age. If NULL or of length <=1 (regardless of value), then λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa are assumed to be time-independent.

CSA_ages

Optional numeric vector, listing ages (in ascending order) at which concentrated sampling attempts (CSAs) occurred. If NULL, it is assumed that no concentrated sampling attempts took place and that all tips were sampled according to the continuous sampling rate psi.

min_lambda

Numeric vector of length Ngrid (=max(1,length(age_grid))), or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted speciation rate λ\lambda at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages.

max_lambda

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted speciation rate λ\lambda at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

min_mu

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted extinction rate μ\mu at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages.

max_mu

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted extinction rate μ\mu at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

min_psi

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted Poissonian sampling rate ψ\psi at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages.

max_psi

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted Poissonian sampling rate ψ\psi at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

min_kappa

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted retention probability κ\kappa at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all ages.

max_kappa

Numeric vector of length Ngrid, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted retention probability κ\kappa at each point in the age grid. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all ages. Use +Inf to omit upper bounds.

min_CSA_probs

Numeric vector of length NCSA (=length(CSA_ages)), or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted sampling probabilities ρ1\rho_1,..,ρm\rho_m at each concentrated sampling attempt. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all CSAs. Note that, since ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2, ... are probabilities, min_CSA_probs should not be negative.

max_CSA_probs

Numeric vector of length NCSA, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted sampling probabilities ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2, ... at each concentrated sampling attempt. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all CSAs. Note that, since ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2, ... are probabilities, max_CSA_probs should not be greater than 1.

min_CSA_kappas

Numeric vector of length NCSA, or a single numeric, specifying lower bounds for the fitted retention probabilities κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, ... at each concentrated sampling attempt. If a single numeric, the same lower bound applies at all CSAs. Note that, since κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, ... are probabilities, min_CSA_kappas should not be negative.

max_CSA_kappas

Numeric vector of length NCSA, or a single numeric, specifying upper bounds for the fitted sampling probabilities κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, ... at each concentrated sampling attempt. If a single numeric, the same upper bound applies at all CSAs. Note that, since κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, .. are probabilities, max_CSA_kappas should not be greater than 1.

guess_lambda

Initial guess for λ\lambda at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same λ\lambda at all ages) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid specifying a separate guess for λ\lambda at each age-grid point. To omit an initial guess for some but not all age-grid points, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

guess_mu

Initial guess for μ\mu at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same μ\mu at all ages) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid specifying a separate guess for μ\mu at each age-grid point. To omit an initial guess for some but not all age-grid points, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

guess_psi

Initial guess for ψ\psi at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same ψ\psi at all ages) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid specifying a separate guess for ψ\psi at each age-grid point. To omit an initial guess for some but not all age-grid points, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

guess_kappa

Initial guess for κ\kappa at each age-grid point. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same κ\kappa at all ages) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid specifying a separate guess for κ\kappa at each age-grid point. To omit an initial guess for some but not all age-grid points, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

guess_CSA_probs

Initial guess for the ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2, ... at each concentrated sampling attempt. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same value at every CSA) or a numeric vector of size NCSA specifying a separate guess at each CSA. To omit an initial guess for some but not all CSAs, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

guess_CSA_kappas

Initial guess for the κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, ... at each concentrated sampling attempt. Either NULL (an initial guess will be computed automatically), or a single numeric (guessing the same value at every CSA) or a numeric vector of size NCSA specifying a separate guess at each CSA. To omit an initial guess for some but not all CSAs, set their guess values to NA. Guess values are ignored for non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters.

fixed_lambda

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) λ\lambda values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (λ\lambda is not fixed anywhere), or a single numeric (λ\lambda fixed to the same value at all grid points) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid (if fixed_age_grid=NULL; λ\lambda fixed on one or more age-grid points, use NA for non-fixed values) or a numeric vector of the same size as fixed_age_grid (if fixed_age_grid!=NULL, in which case all entries in fixed_lambda must be finite numbers).

fixed_mu

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) μ\mu values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (μ\mu is not fixed anywhere), or a single numeric (μ\mu fixed to the same value at all grid points) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid (if fixed_age_grid=NULL; μ\mu fixed on one or more age-grid points, use NA for non-fixed values) or a numeric vector of the same size as fixed_age_grid (if fixed_age_grid!=NULL, in which case all entries in fixed_mu must be finite numbers).

fixed_psi

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) ψ\psi values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (ψ\psi is not fixed anywhere), or a single numeric (ψ\psi fixed to the same value at all grid points) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid (if fixed_age_grid=NULL; ψ\psi fixed on one or more age-grid points, use NA for non-fixed values) or a numeric vector of the same size as fixed_age_grid (if fixed_age_grid!=NULL, in which case all entries in fixed_psi must be finite numbers).

fixed_kappa

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) κ\kappa values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (κ\kappa is not fixed anywhere), or a single numeric (κ\kappa fixed to the same value at all grid points) or a numeric vector of size Ngrid (if fixed_age_grid=NULL; κ\kappa fixed on one or more age-grid points, use NA for non-fixed values) or a numeric vector of the same size as fixed_age_grid (if fixed_age_grid!=NULL, in which case all entries in fixed_kappa must be finite numbers).

fixed_CSA_probs

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2, ... values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (none of the ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2,... are fixed), or a single numeric (ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2,... are fixed to the same value at all CSAs) or a numeric vector of size NCSA (one or more of the ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2, ... are fixed, use NA for non-fixed values).

fixed_CSA_kappas

Optional fixed (i.e. non-fitted) κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, ... values on one or more age-grid points. Either NULL (none of the κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2,... are fixed), or a single numeric (κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2,... are fixed to the same value at all CSAs) or a numeric vector of size NCSA (one or more of the κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, ... are fixed, use NA for non-fixed values).

fixed_age_grid

Optional numeric vector, specifying an age grid on which fixed_lambda, fixed_mu, fixed_psi and fixed_kappa (whichever is provided) are defined instead of on the age_grid. If fixed_age_grid is provided, then each of fixed_lambda, fixed_mu, fixed_psi and fixed_kappa must be defined (i.e. have a finite non-negative value) on every point in fixed_age_grid. Entries in fixed_age_grid must be in ascending order and must cover at least the ages 0 to oldest_age.

This option may be useful if you want to fit some parameters on a coarse grid, but want to specify (fix) some other parameters on a much finer grid. Also note that if fixed_age_grid is used, all parameters lambda, mu, psi and kappa are internally re-interpolated onto fixed_age_grid when evaluating the likelihood; hence, in general fixed_age_grid should be much finer than age_grid. In most situations you would probably want to keep the default fixed_age_grid=NULL.

const_lambda

Logical, specifying whether λ\lambda should be assumed constant across the grid, i.e. time-independent. Setting const_lambda=TRUE reduces the number of free (i.e., independently fitted) parameters. If λ\lambda is fixed on some grid points (i.e. via fixed_lambda), then only the non-fixed lambdas are assumed to be identical to one another.

const_mu

Logical, specifying whether μ\mu should be assumed constant across the grid, i.e. time-independent. Setting const_mu=TRUE reduces the number of free (i.e., independently fitted) parameters. If μ\mu is fixed on some grid points (i.e. via fixed_mu), then only the non-fixed mus are assumed to be identical to one another.

const_psi

Logical, specifying whether ψ\psi should be assumed constant across the grid, i.e. time-independent. Setting const_psi=TRUE reduces the number of free (i.e., independently fitted) parameters. If ψ\psi is fixed on some grid points (i.e. via fixed_psi), then only the non-fixed psis are assumed to be identical to one another.

const_kappa

Logical, specifying whether κ\kappa should be assumed constant across the grid, i.e. time-independent. Setting const_kappa=TRUE reduces the number of free (i.e., independently fitted) parameters. If κ\kappa is fixed on some grid points (i.e. via fixed_kappa), then only the non-fixed kappas are assumed to be identical to one another.

const_CSA_probs

Logical, specifying whether the ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2, ... should be the same across all CSAs. Setting const_CSA_probs=TRUE reduces the number of free (i.e., independently fitted) parameters. If some of the ρ1\rho_1, ρ2\rho_2, ... are fixed (i.e. via fixed_CSA_probs), then only the non-fixed CSA_probs are assumed to be identical to one another.

const_CSA_kappas

Logical, specifying whether the κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, ... should be the same across all CSAs. Setting const_CSA_kappas=TRUE reduces the number of free (i.e., independently fitted) parameters. If some of the κ1\kappa_1, κ2\kappa_2, ... are fixed (i.e. via fixed_CSA_kappas), then only the non-fixed CSA_kappas are assumed to be identical to one another.

splines_degree

Integer between 0 and 3 (inclusive), specifying the polynomial degree of λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa between age-grid points. If 0, then λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa are considered piecewise constant, if 1 they are considered piecewise linear, if 2 or 3 they are considered to be splines of degree 2 or 3, respectively. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on. A degree of 0 is generally not recommended. The case splines_degree=0 is also known as “skyline” model.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "none" or "auto", specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage. Note that "crown" really only makes sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. "none" is generally not recommended. If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the above recommendations.

ODE_relative_dt

Positive unitless number, specifying the default relative time step for the ordinary differential equation solvers. Typical values are 0.01-0.001.

ODE_relative_dy

Positive unitless number, specifying the relative difference between subsequent simulated and interpolated values, in internally used ODE solvers. Typical values are 1e-2 to 1e-5. A smaller ODE_relative_dy increases interpolation accuracy, but also increases memory requirements and adds runtime (scaling with the tree's age span, not with Ntips).

CSA_age_epsilon

Non-negative numeric, in units of time, specfying the age radius around a concentrated sampling attempt, within which to assume that sampling events were due to that concentrated sampling attempt. If NULL, this is chosen automatically based on the anticipated scale of numerical rounding errors. Only relevant if concentrated sampling attempts are included.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

max_start_attempts

Integer, specifying the number of times to attempt finding a valid start point (per trial) before giving up on that trial. Randomly choosen extreme start parameters may occasionally result in Inf/undefined likelihoods, so this option allows the algorithm to keep looking for valid starting points.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of estimated parameters. Set to 0 for no bootstrapping.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

focal_param_values

Optional list, listing combinations of parameter values of particular interest and for which the log-likelihoods should be returned. Every element of this list should itself be a named list, containing the elements lambda, mu, psi and kappa (each being a numeric vector of size NG) as well as the elements CSA_probs and CSA_kappas (each being a numeric vector of size NCSA). This may be used e.g. for diagnostic purposes, e.g. to examine the shape of the likelihood function.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

diagnostics

Logical, specifying whether to print detailed information (such as model likelihoods) at every iteration of the fitting routine. For debugging purposes mainly.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

Warning: In the absence of concentrated sampling attempts (NCSA=0), and without well-justified a priori constraints on either λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and/or κ\kappa, it is generally impossible to reliably estimate λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa from timetrees alone. This routine (and any other software that claims to estimate λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa solely from timetrees) should thus be treated with great suspicion. Many epidemiological models make the (often reasonable assumption) that κ=0\kappa=0; note that even in this case, one generally can't co-estimate λ\lambda, μ\mu and ψ\psi from the timetree alone.

It is advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbds_model_on_grid as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (min_lambda, max_lambda, min_mu, max_mu, min_psi, max_psi, min_kappa, max_kappa) and reasonable parameter guesses. It is also important that the age_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the expected major variations of λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa over time, but keep in mind the serious risk of overfitting when age_grid is too fine and/or the tree is too small. The age_grid does not need to be uniform, i.e., you may want to use a finer grid in regions where there's more data (tips) available. If strong lower and upper bounds are not available and fitting takes a long time to run, consider using the option max_model_runtime to limit how much time the fitting allows for each evaluation of the likelihood.

Note that here "age" refers to time before present, i.e., age increases from tips to root and age 0 is present-day. CSAs are enumerated in the order of increasing age, i.e., from the present to the past. Similarly, the age grid specifies time points from the present towards the past.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given timetree.

guess_loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the guessed model for the given timetree.

param_fitted

Named list, specifying the fixed and fitted model parameters. This list will contain the elements lambda, mu, psi and kappa (each being a numeric vector of size NG, listing λ\lambda,μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa at each age-grid point) as well as the elements CSA_probs and CSA_kappas (each being a numeric vector of size NCSA).

param_guess

Named list, specifying the guessed model parameters. This list will contain the elements lambda, mu, psi and kappa (each being a numeric vector of size NG) as well as the elements CSA_probs and CSA_kappas (each being a numeric vector of size NCSA). Between grid points λ\lambda should be interpreted as a piecewise polynomial function (natural spline) of degree splines_degree; to evaluate this function at arbitrary ages use the castor routine evaluate_spline. The same also applies to μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa.

age_grid

Numeric vector of size NG, the age-grid on which λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa are defined. This will be the same as the provided age_grid, unless the latter was NULL or of length <=1.

CSA_ages

Numeric vector of size NCSA, ting listhe ages at which concentrated sampling attempts occurred. This is the same as provided to the function.

NFP

Integer, number of free (i.e., independently) fitted parameters. If none of the λ\lambda, μ\mu and ρ\rho were fixed, and const_lambda=FALSE and const_mu=FALSE, then NFP will be equal to 2*Ngrid+1.

Ndata

Integer, the number of data points (sampling and branching events) used for fitting.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of branching times), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

condition

Character, specifying what conditioning was root for the likelihood (e.g. "crown" or "stem").

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

standard_errors

Named list specifying the standard errors of the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. This list will contain the elements lambda, mu, psi and kappa (each being a numeric vector of size NG) as well as the elements CSA_probs and CSA_kappas (each being a numeric vector of size NCSA). Only included if Nbootstraps>0. Note that the standard errors of non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters will be zero.

CI50lower

Named list specifying the lower end of the 50% confidence interval (i.e. the 25% quantile) for each parameter, based on parametric bootstrapping. This list will contain the elements lambda, mu, psi and kappa (each being a numeric vector of size NG) as well as the elements CSA_probs and CSA_kappas (each being a numeric vector of size NCSA). Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Similar to CI50lower, but listing the upper end of the 50% confidence interval (i.e. the 75% quantile) for each parameter. For example, the confidence interval for λ\lambda at age age_grid[1] will be between CI50lower$lambda[1] and CI50upper$lambda[1]. Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Similar to CI50lower, but listing the lower end of the 95% confidence interval (i.e. the 2.5% quantile) for each parameter. Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Similar to CI50upper, but listing the upper end of the 95% confidence interval (i.e. the 97.5% quantile) for each parameter. Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

consistency

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated consistency of the data with the fitted model. If LL denotes the loglikelihood of new data generated by the fitted model (under the same model) and MM denotes the expectation of LL, then consistency is the probability that LM|L-M| will be greater or equal to XM|X-M|, where XX is the loglikelihood of the original data under the fitted model. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0. A low consistency (e.g., <0.05) indicates that the fitted model is a poor description of the data. See Lindholm et al. (2019) for background.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

T. Stadler, D. Kuehnert, S. Bonhoeffer, A. J. Drummond (2013). Birth-death skyline plot reveals temporal changes of epidemic spread in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). PNAS. 110:228-233.

A. Lindholm, D. Zachariah, P. Stoica, T. B. Schoen (2019). Data consistency approach to model validation. IEEE Access. 7:59788-59796.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbds, fit_hbds_model_parametric

Examples

## Not run: 
# define lambda & mu & psi as functions of time
# Assuming an exponentially varying lambda & mu, and a constant psi
time2lambda = function(times){ 2*exp(0.1*times) }
time2mu     = function(times){ 0.1*exp(0.09*times) }
time2psi    = function(times){ rep(0.2, times=length(times)) }

# define concentrated sampling attempts
CSA_times   = c(3,4)
CSA_probs   = c(0.1, 0.2)

# generate random tree based on lambda, mu & psi
# assume that all sampled lineages are removed from the pool (i.e. kappa=0)
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
simul = generate_tree_hbds( max_time    = 5,
                            time_grid   = time_grid,
                            lambda      = time2lambda(time_grid),
                            mu          = time2mu(time_grid),
                            psi         = time2psi(time_grid),
                            kappa       = 0,
                            CSA_times   = CSA_times,
                            CSA_probs   = CSA_probs,
                            CSA_kappas  = 0)
tree     = simul$tree
root_age = simul$root_age
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips\n",length(tree$tip.label)))

# Define an age grid on which lambda_function & mu_function shall be fitted
fit_age_grid = seq(from=0,to=root_age,length.out=3)

# Fit an HBDS model on a grid
# Assume that psi is known and that sampled lineages are removed from the pool
# Hence, we only fit lambda & mu & CSA_probs
cat(sprintf("Fitting model to tree..\n"))
fit = fit_hbds_model_on_grid(tree, 
                             root_age           = root_age,
                             age_grid           = fit_age_grid,
                             CSA_ages           = rev(simul$final_time - CSA_times),
                             fixed_psi          = time2psi(simul$final_time-fit_age_grid),
                             fixed_kappa        = 0,
                             fixed_CSA_kappas   = 0,
                             Ntrials            = 4,
                             Nthreads           = 4,
                             Nbootstraps        = 0,
                             verbose            = TRUE,
                             verbose_prefix     = "  ")
if(!fit$success){
    cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
    # compare fitted lambda to true lambda
    plot(x=fit$age_grid, 
         y=fit$param_fitted$lambda, 
         type='l', 
         col='#000000', 
         xlim=c(root_age,0),
         xlab='age', 
         ylab='lambda')
    lines(x=simul$final_time-time_grid, 
          y=time2lambda(time_grid), 
          type='l', 
          col='#0000AA')
}


# compare true and fitted model in terms of their LTTs
LTT      = castor::count_lineages_through_time(tree, Ntimes=100, include_slopes=TRUE)
LTT$ages = root_age - LTT$times

cat(sprintf("Simulating deterministic HBDS (true model)..\n"))
age0 = 0.5 # reference age at which to equate LTTs
LTT0 = approx(x=LTT$ages, y=LTT$lineages, xout=age0)$y # tree LTT at age0
fsim = simulate_deterministic_hbds( age_grid        = fit$age_grid,
                                    lambda          = fit$param_fitted$lambda,
                                    mu              = fit$param_fitted$mu,
                                    psi             = fit$param_fitted$psi,
                                    kappa           = fit$param_fitted$kappa,
                                    CSA_ages        = fit$CSA_ages,
                                    CSA_probs       = fit$param_fitted$CSA_probs,
                                    CSA_kappas      = fit$param_fitted$CSA_kappas,
                                    requested_ages  = seq(0,root_age,length.out=200),
                                    age0            = age0,
                                    LTT0            = LTT0,
                                    splines_degree  = 1)
if(!fsim$success){
    cat(sprintf("ERROR: Could not simulate fitted model: %s\n",fsim$error))
    stop()
}
plot(x=LTT$ages, y=LTT$lineages, type='l', col='#0000AA', lwd=2, xlim=c(root_age,0))
lines(x=fsim$ages, y=fsim$LTT, type='l', col='#000000', lwd=2)

## End(Not run)

Fit a parametric homogenous birth-death-sampling model to a timetree.

Description

Given a timetree (potentially sampled through time and not necessarily ultrametric), fit a homogenous birth-death-sampling (HBDS) model in which speciation, extinction and lineage sampling occurs at some continuous (Poissonian) rates λ\lambda, μ\mu and ψ\psi, which are given as parameterized functions of time before present. Sampled lineages are kept in the pool of extant lineages at some “retention probability” κ\kappa, which may also depend on time. In addition, this model can include concentrated sampling attempts (CSAs) at a finite set of discrete time points t1,..,tmt_1,..,t_m. “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction/sampling rates. Every HBDS model is thus defined based on the values that λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa take over time, as well as the sampling probabilities ρ1,..,ρm\rho_1,..,\rho_m and retention probabilities κ1,..,κm\kappa_1,..,\kappa_m during the concentrated sampling attempts; each of these parameters, in turn, is assumed to be determined by a finite set of parameters. This function estimates these parameters by maximizing the corresponding likelihood of the timetree. Special cases of this model are sometimes known as “birth-death-skyline plots” in the literature (Stadler 2013). In epidemiology, these models are often used to describe the phylogenies of viral strains sampled over the course of the epidemic.

Usage

fit_hbds_model_parametric(tree, 
                          param_values,
                          param_guess           = NULL,
                          param_min             = -Inf,
                          param_max             = +Inf,
                          param_scale           = NULL,
                          root_age              = NULL,
                          oldest_age            = NULL,
                          lambda                = 0,
                          mu                    = 0,
                          psi                   = 0,
                          kappa                 = 0,
                          age_grid              = NULL,
                          CSA_ages              = NULL,
                          CSA_probs             = NULL,
                          CSA_kappas            = 0,
                          condition             = "auto",
                          ODE_relative_dt       = 0.001,
                          ODE_relative_dy       = 1e-3,
                          CSA_age_epsilon       = NULL,
                          Ntrials               = 1,
                          max_start_attempts    = 1,
                          Nthreads              = 1,
                          max_model_runtime     = NULL,
                          Nbootstraps           = 0,
                          Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
                          fit_control           = list(),
                          focal_param_values    = NULL,
                          verbose               = FALSE,
                          diagnostics           = FALSE,
                          verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A timetree of class "phylo", representing the time-calibrated reconstructed phylogeny of a set of extant and/or extinct species. Tips of the tree are interpreted as terminally sampled lineages, while monofurcating nodes are interpreted as non-terminally sampled lineages, i.e., lineages sampled at some past time point and with subsequently sampled descendants.

param_values

Numeric vector, specifying fixed values for a some or all model parameters. For fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters, use NaN or NA. For example, the vector c(1.5,NA,40) specifies that the 1st and 3rd model parameters are fixed at the values 1.5 and 40, respectively, while the 2nd parameter is to be fitted. The length of this vector defines the total number of model parameters. If entries in this vector are named, the names are taken as parameter names. Names should be included if the functions lambda, mu, psi, kappa, CSA_psi and CSA_kappa query parameter values by name (as opposed to numeric index).

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, specifying a first guess for the value of each model parameter. For fixed parameters, guess values are ignored. Can be NULL only if all model parameters are fixed.

param_min

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying lower bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same lower bound is applied to all parameters. Use -Inf to omit a lower bound for a parameter. If NULL, no lower bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, lower bounds are ignored.

param_max

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying upper bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same upper bound is applied to all parameters. Use +Inf to omit an upper bound for a parameter. If NULL, no upper bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, upper bounds are ignored.

param_scale

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying typical scales for model parameters. If of size 1, the same scale is assumed for all parameters. If NULL, scales are determined automatically. For fixed parameters, scales are ignored. It is strongly advised to provide reasonable scales, as this facilitates the numeric optimization algorithm.

root_age

Positive numeric, specifying the age of the tree's root. Can be used to define a time offset, e.g. if the last tip was not actually sampled at the present. If NULL, this will be calculated from the tree and it will be assumed that the last tip was sampled at the present.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is interpreted as the stem age. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBDS model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

lambda

Function specifying the speciation rate at any given age (time before present) and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more ages) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument with strictly positive entries. Can also be a single numeric (i.e., lambda is fixed).

mu

Function specifying the extinction rate at any given age and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more ages) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument with non-negative entries. Can also be a single numeric (i.e., mu is fixed).

psi

Function specifying the continuous (Poissonian) lineage sampling rate at any given age and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more ages) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument with non-negative entries. Can also be a single numeric (i.e., psi is fixed).

kappa

Function specifying the retention probability for continuously sampled lineages, at any given age and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more ages) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument with non-negative entries. The retention probability is the probability of a sampled lineage remaining in the pool of extant lineages. Can also be a single numeric (i.e., kappa is fixed).

age_grid

Numeric vector, specifying ages at which the lambda, mu, psi and kappa functionals should be evaluated. This age grid must be fine enough to capture the possible variation in λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa over time, within the permissible parameter range. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and must cover at least the full considered age interval (from 0 to oldest_age). Can also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa are assumed to be time-independent.

CSA_ages

Optional numeric vector, listing ages (in ascending order) at which concentrated sampling attempts occurred. If NULL, it is assumed that no concentrated sampling attempts took place and that all tips were sampled according to the continuous sampling rate psi.

CSA_probs

Function specifying the sampling probabilities during the various concentrated sampling attempts, depending on parameter values. Hence, for any choice of parameters, CSA_probs must return a numeric vector of the same size as CSA_ages. Can also be a single numeric (i.e., concentrated sampling probability is fixed).

CSA_kappas

Function specifying the retention probabilities during the various concentrated sampling attempts, depending on parameter values. Hence, for any choice of parameters, CSA_kappas must return a numeric vector of the same size as CSA_ages. Can also be a single numeric (i.e., retention probability during concentrated samplings is fixed).

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "none" or "auto", specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage. Note that "crown" really only makes sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. "none" is usually not recommended. If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the above recommendations.

ODE_relative_dt

Positive unitless number, specifying the default relative time step for the ordinary differential equation solvers. Typical values are 0.01-0.001.

ODE_relative_dy

Positive unitless number, specifying the relative difference between subsequent simulated and interpolated values, in internally used ODE solvers. Typical values are 1e-2 to 1e-5. A smaller ODE_relative_dy increases interpolation accuracy, but also increases memory requirements and adds runtime (scaling with the tree's age span, not with Ntips).

CSA_age_epsilon

Non-negative numeric, in units of time, specfying the age radius around a concentrated sampling attempt, within which to assume that sampling events were due to that concentrated sampling attempt. If NULL, this is chosen automatically based on the anticipated scale of numerical rounding errors. Only relevant if concentrated sampling attempts are included.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

max_start_attempts

Integer, specifying the number of times to attempt finding a valid start point (per trial) before giving up on that trial. Randomly chosen extreme start parameters may occasionally result in Inf/undefined likelihoods, so this option allows the algorithm to keep looking for valid starting points.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

max_model_runtime

Optional numeric, specifying the maximum number of seconds to allow for each evaluation of the likelihood function. Use this to abort fitting trials leading to parameter regions where the likelihood takes a long time to evaluate (these are often unlikely parameter regions).

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of estimated model parameters. Set to 0 for no bootstrapping.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

focal_param_values

Optional numeric matrix having NP columns and an arbitrary number of rows, listing combinations of parameter values of particular interest and for which the log-likelihoods should be returned. This may be used for diagnostic purposes, e.g., to examine the shape of the likelihood function.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

diagnostics

Logical, specifying whether to print detailed information (such as model likelihoods) at every iteration of the fitting routine. For debugging purposes mainly.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

This function is designed to estimate a finite set of scalar parameters (p1,..,pnRp_1,..,p_n\in\R) that determine the speciation rate λ\lambda, the extinction rate μ\mu, the sampling rate ψ\psi, the retention rate κ\kappa, the concentrated sampling probabilities ρ1,..,ρm\rho_1,..,\rho_m and the concentrated retention probabilities κ1,..,κm\kappa_1,..,\kappa_m, by maximizing the likelihood of observing a given timetree under the HBDS model. Note that the ages (times before present) of the concentrated sampling attempts are assumed to be known and are not fitted.

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_hbds_model_parametric as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (param_min and param_max), a reasonable parameter guess (param_guess) and reasonable parameter scales param_scale. If some model parameters can vary over multiple orders of magnitude, it is advised to transform them so that they vary across fewer orders of magnitude (e.g., via log-transformation). It is also important that the age_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the variation of λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa over time, since the likelihood is calculated under the assumption that these functions vary linearly between grid points.

Note that in this function age always refers to time before present, i.e., present day age is 0 and age increases from tips to root. The functions lambda, mu, psi and kappa should be functions of age, not forward time. Similarly, concentrated sampling attempts (CSAs) are enumerated in order of increasing age, i.e., starting with the youngest CSA and moving towards older CSAs.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given timetree.

param_fitted

Numeric vector of size NP (number of model parameters), listing all fitted or fixed model parameters in their standard order (see details above). If param_names was provided, elements in fitted_params will be named.

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, listing guessed or fixed values for all model parameters in their standard order. If param_names was provided, elements in param_guess will be named.

guess_loglikelihood

The loglikelihood of the data for the initial parameter guess (param_guess).

focal_loglikelihoods

A numeric vector of the same size as nrow(focal_param_values), listing loglikelihoods for each of the focal parameter conbinations listed in focal_loglikelihoods.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) model parameters.

Ndata

Number of data points used for fitting, i.e., the number of sampling and branching events that occurred between ages 0 and oldest_age.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (Ndata), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

condition

Character, specifying what conditioning was root for the likelihood (e.g. "crown" or "stem").

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

trial_start_objectives

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the initial objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial, i.e. at the start parameter values.

trial_objective_values

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the final maximized objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial.

trial_Nstart_attempts

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of start attempts for each fitting trial, until a starting point with valid likelihood was found.

trial_Niterations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of iterations needed for each fitting trial.

trial_Nevaluations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of likelihood evaluations needed for each fitting trial.

standard_errors

Numeric vector of size NP, estimated standard error of the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

medians

Numeric vector of size NP, median the estimated parameters across parametric bootstraps. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Numeric vector of size NP, lower bound of the 50% confidence interval (25-75% percentile) for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Numeric vector of size NP, upper bound of the 50% confidence interval for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Numeric vector of size NP, lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (2.5-97.5% percentile) for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Numeric vector of size NP, upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

consistency

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated consistency of the data with the fitted model (Lindholm et al. 2019). See the documentation of fit_hbds_model_on_grid for an explanation.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

T. Stadler, D. Kuehnert, S. Bonhoeffer, A. J. Drummond (2013). Birth-death skyline plot reveals temporal changes of epidemic spread in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). PNAS. 110:228-233.

A. Lindholm, D. Zachariah, P. Stoica, T. B. Schoen (2019). Data consistency approach to model validation. IEEE Access. 7:59788-59796.

See Also

generate_tree_hbds, simulate_deterministic_hbds

Examples

## Not run: 
# Generate a random tree with exponentially varying lambda & mu and constant psi
# assume that all sampled lineages are removed from the pool (i.e. kappa=0)
time_grid = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.01)
root_age  = 5
tree = generate_tree_hbds(max_time  = root_age,
                        time_grid   = time_grid,
                        lambda      = 2*exp(0.1*time_grid),
                        mu          = 0.1*exp(0.09*time_grid),
                        psi         = 0.1,
                        kappa       = 0)$tree
cat(sprintf("Tree has %d tips\n",length(tree$tip.label)))


# Define a parametric HBDS model, with exponentially varying lambda & mu
# Assume that the sampling rate is constant but unknown
# The model thus has 5 parameters: lambda0, mu0, alpha, beta, psi
lambda_function = function(ages,params){
    return(params['lambda0']*exp(-params['alpha']*ages));
}
mu_function = function(ages,params){
    return(params['mu0']*exp(-params['beta']*ages));
}
psi_function = function(ages,params){
    return(rep(params['psi'],length(ages)))
}

# Define an age grid on which lambda_function & mu_function shall be evaluated
# Should be sufficiently fine to capture the variation in lambda & mu
age_grid = seq(from=0,to=root_age,by=0.01)

# Perform fitting
cat(sprintf("Fitting model to tree..\n"))
fit = fit_hbds_model_parametric(tree, 
                      root_age      = root_age,
                      param_values  = c(lambda0=NA, mu0=NA, alpha=NA, beta=NA, psi=NA),
                      param_guess   = c(1,1,0,0,0.5),
                      param_min     = c(0,0,-1,-1,0),
                      param_max     = c(10,10,1,1,10),
                      param_scale   = 1, # all params are in the order of 1
                      lambda        = lambda_function,
                      mu            = mu_function,
                      psi           = psi_function,
                      kappa         = 0,
                      age_grid      = age_grid,
                      Ntrials       = 4, # perform 4 fitting trials
                      Nthreads      = 2) # use 2 CPUs
if(!fit$success){
    cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
    cat(sprintf("Fitting succeeded:\nLoglikelihood=%g\n",fit$loglikelihood))
    # print fitted parameters
    print(fit$param_fitted)
}

## End(Not run)

Fit a Markov (Mk) model for discrete trait evolution.

Description

Estimate the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov model for discrete trait evolution ("Mk model") via maximum-likelihood, based on one or more phylogenetic trees and its tips' states.

Usage

fit_mk( trees,
        Nstates,
        tip_states              = NULL,
        tip_priors              = NULL,
        rate_model              = "ER",
        root_prior              = "auto",
        oldest_ages             = NULL,
        guess_transition_matrix = NULL,
        Ntrials                 = 1,
        Nscouts                 = NULL,
        max_model_runtime       = NULL,
        optim_algorithm         = "nlminb",
        optim_max_iterations    = 200,
        optim_rel_tol           = 1e-8,
        check_input             = TRUE,
        Nthreads                = 1,
        Nbootstraps             = 0,	
        Ntrials_per_bootstrap   = NULL,
        verbose                 = FALSE,
        diagnostics             = FALSE,
        verbose_prefix          = "")

Arguments

trees

Either a single phylogenetic tree of class "phylo", or a list of phylogenetic trees. Edge lengths should correspond (or be analogous) to time. The trees don't need to be ultrametric.

Nstates

Integer, specifying the number of possible discrete states that the trait can have.

tip_states

Either an integer vector of size Ntips (only permitted if trees[] is a single tree) or a list containing Ntrees such integer vectors (if trees[] is a list of trees), listing the state of each tip in each tree. Note that tip_states cannot include NAs or NaNs; if the states of some tips are uncertain, you should use the option tip_priors instead. Can also be NULL, in which case tip_priors must be provided.

tip_priors

Either a numeric matrix of size Ntips x Nstates (only permitted if trees[] is a single tree), or a list containing Ntrees such matrixes (if trees[] is a list of trees), listing the likelihood of each state at each tip in each tree. Can also be NULL, in which case tip_states must be provided. Hence, tip_priors[t][i,s] is the likelihood of the observed state of tip i in tree t, if the tip's true state was in state s. For example, if you know for certain that a tip is in state k, then set tip_priors[t][i,s]=1 for s=k and tip_priors[t][i,s]=0 for all other s.

rate_model

Rate model to be used for the transition rate matrix. Can be "ER" (all rates equal), "SYM" (transition rate i–>j is equal to transition rate j–>i), "ARD" (all rates can be different), "SUEDE" (only stepwise transitions i–>i+1 and i–>i-1 allowed, all 'up' transitions are equal, all 'down' transitions are equal) or "SRD" (only stepwise transitions i–>i+1 and i–>i-1 allowed, and each rate can be different). Can also be an index matrix that maps entries of the transition matrix to the corresponding independent rate parameter to be fitted. Diagonal entries should map to 0, since diagonal entries are not treated as independent rate parameters but are calculated from the remaining entries in the transition rate matrix. All other entries that map to 0 represent a transition rate of zero. The format of this index matrix is similar to the format used by the ace function in the ape package. rate_model is only relevant if transition_matrix==NULL.

root_prior

Prior probability distribution of the root's states, used to calculate the model's overall likelihood from the root's marginal ancestral state likelihoods. Can be "flat" (all states equal), "empirical" (empirical probability distribution of states across the tree's tips), "stationary" (stationary probability distribution of the transition matrix), "likelihoods" (use the root's state likelihoods as prior), "max_likelihood" (put all weight onto the state with maximum likelihood) or “auto” (will be chosen automatically based on some internal logic). If "stationary" and transition_matrix==NULL, then a transition matrix is first fitted using a flat root prior, and then used to calculate the stationary distribution. root_prior can also be a non-negative numeric vector of size Nstates and with total sum equal to 1.

oldest_ages

Optional numeric or numeric vector of size Ntrees, specifying the oldest age (time before present) for each tree to consider when fitting the Mk model. If NULL, the entire trees are considered from the present all the way to their root. If non-NULL, then each tree is “cut” at the corresponding oldest age, yielding multiple subtrees, each of which is assumed to be an independent realization of the Mk process. If oldest_ages is a single numeric, then all trees are cut at the same oldest age. This option may be useful if temporal variation is suspected in the Mk rates, and only data near the present are to be used for fitting to avoid violating the assumptions of a constant-rates Mk model.

guess_transition_matrix

Optional 2D numeric matrix, specifying a reasonable first guess for the transition rate matrix. May contain NA. May also be NULL, in which case a reasonable first guess is automatically generated.

Ntrials

Integer, number of trials (starting points) for fitting the transition rate matrix. A higher number may reduce the risk of landing in a local non-global optimum of the likelihood function, but will increase computation time during fitting.

Nscouts

Optional positive integer, number of randomly chosen starting points to consider for all fitting trials except the first one. Among all "scouted" starting points, the Ntrials-1 most promising ones will be considered. A greater number of scouts increases the chances of finding a global likelihood maximum. Each scout costs only one evaluation of the loglikelihood function. If NULL, Nscout is automatically chosen based on the number of fitted parameters and Ntrials. Only relevant if Ntrials>1, since the first trial always uses the default or provided parameter guess.

max_model_runtime

Optional positive numeric, specifying the maximum time (in seconds) allowed for a single evaluation of the likelihood function. If a specific Mk model takes longer than this threshold to evaluate, then its likelihood is set to -Inf. This option can be used to avoid badly parameterized models during fitting and can thus reduce fitting time. If NULL or <=0, this option is ignored.

optim_algorithm

Either "optim" or "nlminb", specifying which optimization algorithm to use for maximum-likelihood estimation of the transition matrix.

optim_max_iterations

Maximum number of iterations (per fitting trial) allowed for optimizing the likelihood function.

optim_rel_tol

Relative tolerance (stop criterion) for optimizing the likelihood function.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Nthreads

Number of parallel threads to use for running multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This only makes sense if your computer has multiple cores/CPUs and if Ntrials>1. This option is ignored on Windows, because Windows does not support forking.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of estimated rate parameters. Set to 0 for no bootstrapping.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen.

diagnostics

Logical, specifying whether to print detailed diagnostic messages, mainly for debugging purposes.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

The trait's states must be represented by integers within 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the total number of possible states. If the states are originally in some other format (e.g. characters or factors), you should map them to a set of integers 1,..,Nstates. The order of states (if relevant) should be reflected in their integer representation. For example, if your original states are "small", "medium" and "large" and rate_model=="SUEDE", it is advised to represent these states as integers 1,2,3. You can easily map any set of discrete states to integers using the function map_to_state_space.

This function allows the specification of the precise tip states (if these are known) using the vector tip_states. Alternatively, if some tip states are not fully known, you can pass the state likelihoods using the matrix tip_priors. Note that exactly one of the two arguments, tip_states or tip_priors, must be non-NULL.

Tips must be represented in tip_states or tip_priors in the same order as in tree$tip.label. None of the input vectors or matrixes need include row or column names; if they do, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

The tree is either assumed to be complete (i.e. include all possible species), or to represent a random subset of species chosen independently of their states. If the tree is not complete and tips are not chosen independently of their states, then this method will not be valid.

fit_Mk uses maximum-likelihood to estimate each free parameter of the transition rate matrix. The number of free parameters depends on the rate_model considered; for example, ER implies a single free parameter, while ARD implies Nstates x (Nstates-1) free parameters. If multiple trees are provided as input, the likelihood is the product of likelihoods for each tree, i.e. as if each tree was an independent realization of the same Markov process.

This function is similar to asr_mk_model, but focused solely on fitting the transition rate matrix (i.e., without estimating ancestral states) and with the ability to utilize multiple trees at once.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful. If FALSE, an additional element error (of type character) is included containing an explanation of the error; in that case the value of any of the other elements is undetermined.

Nstates

Integer, the number of states assumed for the model.

transition_matrix

A matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, the fitted transition rate matrix of the model. The [r,c]-th entry is the transition rate from state r to state c.

loglikelihood

Numeric, the log-likelihood of the observed tip states under the fitted model.

Niterations

Integer, the number of iterations required to reach the maximum log-likelihood. Depending on the optimization algorithm used (see optim_algorithm), this may be NA.

Nevaluations

Integer, the number of evaluations of the likelihood function required to reach the maximum log-likelihood. Depending on the optimization algorithm used (see optim_algorithm), this may be NA.

converged

Logical, indicating whether the fitting algorithm converged. Note that fit_Mk may return successfully even if convergence was not achieved; if this happens, the fitted transition matrix may not be reasonable. In that case it is recommended to change the optimization options, for example increasing optim_max_iterations.

guess_rate

Numeric, the initial guess used for the average transition rate, prior to fitting.

AIC

Numeric, the Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of independent fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

standard_errors

Numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, estimated standard error of the fitted transition rates, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, lower bounds of the 50% confidence intervals (25-75% percentile) for the fitted transition rates, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, upper bounds of the 50% confidence intervals for the fitted transition rates, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals (2.5-97.5% percentile) for the fitted transition rates, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, upper bounds of the 95% confidence intervals for the fitted transition rates, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Z. Yang, S. Kumar and M. Nei (1995). A new method for inference of ancestral nucleotide and amino acid sequences. Genetics. 141:1641-1650.

M. Pagel (1994). Detecting correlated evolution on phylogenies: a general method for the comparative analysis of discrete characters. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences. 255:37-45.

See Also

asr_mk_model, simulate_mk_model, fit_musse

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# create random transition matrix
Nstates = 5
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ER", max_rate=0.01)
cat(sprintf("Simulated ER transition rate=%g\n",Q[1,2]))

# simulate the trait's evolution
simulation = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)
tip_states = simulation$tip_states

# fit Mk transition matrix
results = fit_mk(tree, Nstates, tip_states, rate_model="ER", Ntrials=2)

# print Mk model fitting summary
cat(sprintf("Mk model: log-likelihood=%g\n",results$loglikelihood))
cat(sprintf("Fitted ER transition rate=%g\n",results$transition_matrix[1,2]))

## End(Not run)

Fit a discrete-state-dependent diversification model via maximum-likelihood.

Description

The Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) model (Maddison et al. 2007) and its extension to Multiple State Speciation Extinction (MuSSE) models (FitzJohn et al. 2009, 2012), Hidden State Speciation Extinction (HiSSE) models (Beaulieu and O'meara, 2016) or Several Examined and Concealed States-dependent Speciation and Extinction (SecSSE) models (van Els et al. 2018), describe a Poissonian cladogenic process whose birth/death (speciation/extinction) rates depend on the states of an evolving discrete trait. Specifically, extant tips either go extinct or split continuously in time at Poissonian rates, and birth/death rates at each extant tip depend on the current state of the tip; lineages tansition stochastically between states acccording to a continuous-time Markov process with fixed transition rates. At the end of the simulation (i.e., at "present-day"), extant lineages are sampled according to some state-dependent probability ("sampling_fraction"), which may depend on proxy state. Optionally, tips may also be sampled continuously over time according to some Poissonian rate (which may depend on proxy state), in which case the resulting tree may not be ultrametric.

This function takes as main input a phylogenetic tree (ultrametric unless Poissonian sampling is included) and a list of tip proxy states, and fits the parameters of a BiSSE/MuSSE/HiSSE/SecSSE model to the data via maximum-likelihood. Tips can have missing (unknown) proxy states, and the function can account for biases in species sampling and biases in the identification of proxy states. The likelihood is calculated using a mathematically equivalent, but computationally more efficient variant, of the classical postorder-traversal BiSSE/MuSSE/HiSSE/SecSSE algorithm, as described by Louca (2019). This function has been optimized for large phylogenetic trees, with a relatively small number of states (i.e. Nstates<<Ntips); its time complexity scales roughly linearly with Ntips.

If you use this function for your research please cite Louca and Pennell (2020), DOI:10.1093/sysbio/syz055.

Usage

fit_musse(tree, 
          Nstates,
          NPstates              = NULL,
          proxy_map             = NULL,
          state_names           = NULL,
          tip_pstates           = NULL,
          tip_priors            = NULL,
          sampling_fractions    = 1,
          reveal_fractions      = 1,
          sampling_rates        = 0,
          transition_rate_model	= "ARD",
          birth_rate_model      = "ARD",
          death_rate_model      = "ARD",
          transition_matrix     = NULL,
          birth_rates           = NULL,
          death_rates           = NULL,
          first_guess           = NULL,
          lower                 = NULL,
          upper                 = NULL,
          root_prior            = "auto",
          root_conditioning     = "auto",
          oldest_age            = NULL,
          Ntrials               = 1,
          Nscouts               = NULL,
          optim_algorithm       = "nlminb",
          optim_max_iterations  = 10000,
          optim_max_evaluations = NULL,
          optim_rel_tol         = 1e-6,
          check_input           = TRUE,
          include_ancestral_likelihoods = FALSE,
          Nthreads              = 1,
          Nbootstraps           = 0,
          Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
          max_condition_number  = 1e4,
          relative_ODE_step     = 0.1,
          E_value_step          = 1e-4,
          D_temporal_resolution = 100,
          max_model_runtime     = NULL,
          verbose               = TRUE,
          diagnostics           = FALSE,
          verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

Phylogenetic tree of class "phylo", representing the evolutionary relationships between sampled species/lineages. Unless Poissonian sampling is included in the model (option sampling_rates), this tree should be ultrametric.

Nstates

Integer, specifying the number of possible discrete states a tip can have, influencing speciation/extinction rates. For example, if Nstates==2 then this corresponds to the common Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) model (Maddison et al., 2007). In the case of a HiSSE/SecSSE model, Nstates refers to the total number of diversification rate categories. For example, in the case of the HiSSE model described by Beaulieu and O'meara (2016), Nstates=4.

NPstates

Integer, optionally specifying a number of "proxy-states" that are observed instead of the underlying speciation/extinction-modulating states. To fit a HiSSE/SecSSE model, NPstates should be smaller than Nstates. Each state corresponds to a different proxy-state, as defined using the variable proxy_map (see below). For BiSSE/MuSSE with no hidden states, NPstates can be set to either NULL or equal to Nstates; in either case, NPstates will be considered equal to Nstates. For example, in the case of the HiSSE model described by Beaulieu and O'meara (2016), NPstates=2.

proxy_map

Integer vector of size Nstates and with values in 1,..NPstates, specifying the correspondence between states (i.e. diversification-rate categories) and proxy-states, in a HiSSE/SecSSE model. Specifically, proxy_map[s] indicates which proxy-state the state s is represented by. Each proxy-state can represent multiple states (i.e. proxies are ambiguous), but each state must be represented by exactly one proxy-state. For example, to setup the HiSSE model described by Beaulieu and O'meara (2016), use proxy_map=c(1,2,1,2). For non-HiSSE models, set this to NULL or to c(1:Nstates). See below for more details.

state_names

Optional character vector of size Nstates, specifying a name/description for each state. This does not influence any of the calculations. It is merely used to add human-readable row/column names (rather than integers) to the returned vectors/matrices. If NULL, no row/column names are added.

tip_pstates

Integer vector of size Ntips, listing the proxy state at each tip, in the same order as tips are indexed in the tree. The vector may (but need not) include names; if it does, these are checked for consistency with the tree (if check_input==TRUE). Values must range from 1 to NPstates (which is assumed equal to Nstates in the case of BiSSE/MuSSE). States may also be NA, corresponding to unknown tip proxy states (no information available).

tip_priors

Numeric matrix of size Ntips x Nstates (or of size Ntips x NPstates), listing prior likelihoods of each state (or each proxy-state) at each tip. Can be provided as an alternative to tip_pstates. Thus, tip_priors[i,s] is the likelihood of observing the data (i.e., sampling tip i and observing the observed state) if the tip i was at state s (or proxy-state s). Hence, tip_priors should account for sampling fractions as well as reveal fractions. Either tip_pstates or tip_priors must be non-NULL, but not both.

sampling_fractions

Numeric vector of size NPstates, with values between 0 and 1, listing the sampling fractions of extant species depending on proxy-state. That is, sampling_fractions[p] is the probability that an extant species, having proxy state p, is included in the phylogeny at present-day. If all extant species are included in the tree with the same probability (i.e., independent of state), this can also be a single number. If NULL (default), all extant species are assumed to be included in the tree. Irrelevant if tip_priors is provided and valid for all tips.

reveal_fractions

Numeric vector of size NPstates, with values between 0 and 1, listing the probabilities of proxy-state identification depending on proxy-state. That is, reveal_fractions[p] is the probability that a species with proxy-state p will have a known ("revealed") state, conditional upon being included in the tree. This can be used to incorporate reveal biases for tips, depending on their proxy state. Can also be NULL or a single number (in which case reveal fractions are assumed to be independent of proxy-state). Note that only the relative values in reveal_fractions matter, for example c(1,2,1) has the same effect as c(0.5,1,0.5), because reveal_fractions is normalized internally anyway. Irrelevant if tip_priors is provided and valid for all tips.

sampling_rates

Numeric vector of size NPstates, listing Poissonian per-lineage sampling rates over time. Hence, sampling_rates[p] is the rate at which lineages are sampled over time when they are in proxy state p. Can also be a single numeric, in which case sampling rates are the same for all proxy states. If NULL, Poissonian sampling is assumed to not occur. Note that earlier MuSSE/HiSSE models (e.g., by Beaulieu and O'Meara, 2016) do not include Poissonian sampling (i.e., all tips are assumed to have been sampled at present-day). Poissonian sampling through time is common in epidemiological models but uncommon in macroevolution models.

transition_rate_model

Either a character or a 2D integer matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, specifying the model for the transition rates between states. This option controls the parametric complexity of the state transition model, i.e. the number of independent rates and the correspondence between independent and dependent rates. If a character, then it must be one of "ER", "SYM", "ARD", "SUEDE" or "SRD", as used for Mk models (see the function asr_mk_model for details). For example, "ARD" (all rates different) specifies that all transition rates should be considered as independent parameters with potentially different values.

If an integer matrix, then it defines a custom parametric structure for the transition rates, by mapping entries of the transition matrix to a set of independent transition-rate parameters (numbered 1,2, and so on), similarly to the option rate_model in the function asr_mk_model, and as returned for example by the function get_transition_index_matrix. Entries must be between 1 and Nstates, however 0 may also be used to denote a fixed value of zero. For example, if transition_rate_model[1,2]=transition_rate_model[2,1], then the transition rates 1->2 and 2->1 are assumed to be equal. Entries on the diagonal are ignored, since the diagonal elements are always adjusted to ensure a valid Markov transition matrix. To construct a custom matrix with the proper structure, it may be convenient to first generate an "ARD" matrix using get_transition_index_matrix, and then modify individual entries to reduce the number of independent rates.

birth_rate_model

Either a character or an integer vector of length Nstates, specifying the model for the various birth (speciation) rates. This option controls the parametric complexity of the possible birth rates, i.e. the number of independent birth rates and the correspondence between independent and dependent birth rates. If a character, then it must be either "ER" (equal rates) or "ARD" (all rates different). If an integer vector, it must map each state to an indepedent birth-rate parameter (indexed 1,2,..). For example, the vector c(1,2,1) specifies that the birth-rates λ1\lambda_1 and λ3\lambda_3 must be the same, but λ2\lambda_2 is independent.

death_rate_model

Either a character or an integer vector of length Nstates, specifying the model for the various death (extinction) rates. Similar to birth_rate_model.

transition_matrix

Either NULL or a 2D matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, specifying known (and thus fixed) transition rates between states. For example, setting some elements to 0 specifies that these transitions cannot occur directly. May also contain NA, indicating rates that are to be fitted. If NULL or empty, all rates are considered unknown and are therefore fitted. Note that, unless transition_rate_model=="ARD", values in transition_matrix are assumed to be consistent with the rate model, that is, rates specified to be equal under the transition rate model are expected to also have equal values in transition_matrix.

birth_rates

Either NULL, or a single number, or a numeric vector of length Nstates, specifying known (and thus fixed) birth rates for each state. May contain NA, indicating rates that are to be fitted. For example, the vector c(5,0,NA) specifies that λ1=5\lambda_1=5, λ2=0\lambda_2=0 and that λ3\lambda_3 is to be fitted. If NULL or empty, all birth rates are considered unknown and are therefore fitted. If a single number, all birth rates are considered fixed at that given value.

death_rates

Either NULL, or a single number, or a numeric vector of length Nstates, specifying known (and thus fixed) death rates for each state. Similar to birth_rates.

first_guess

Either NULL, or a named list containing optional initial suggestions for various model parameters, i.e. start values for fitting. The list can contain any or all of the following elements:

  • transition_matrix: A single number or a 2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, specifying suggested start values for the transition rates. May contain NA, indicating rates that should be guessed automatically by the function. If a single number, then that value is used as a start value for all transition rates.

  • birth_rates: A single number or a numeric vector of size Nstates, specifying suggested start values for the birth rates. May contain NA, indicating rates that should be guessed automatically by the function (by fitting a simple birth-death model, see fit_tree_model).

  • death_rates: A single number or a numeric vector of size Nstates, specifying suggested start values for the death rates. May contain NA, indicating rates that should be guessed automatically by the function (by fitting a simple birth-death model, see fit_tree_model).

Start values are only relevant for fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters.

lower

Either NULL or a named list containing optional lower bounds for various model parameters. The list can contain any or all of the elements transition_matrix, birth_rates and death_rates, structured similarly to first_guess. For example, list(transition_matrix=0.1, birth_rates=c(5,NA,NA)) specifies that all transition rates between states must be 0.1 or greater, that the birth rate λ1\lambda_1 must be 5 or greater, and that all other model parameters have unspecified lower bound. For parameters with unspecified lower bounds, zero is used as a lower bound. Lower bounds only apply to fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters.

upper

Either NULL or a named list containing optional upper bounds for various model parameters. The list can contain any or all of the elements transition_matrix, birth_rates and death_rates, structured similarly to upper. For example, list(transition_matrix=2, birth_rates=c(10,NA,NA)) specifies that all transition rates between states must be 2 or less, that the birth rate λ1\lambda_1 must be 10 or less, and that all other model parameters have unspecified upper bound. For parameters with unspecified upper bounds, infinity is used as an upper bound. Upper bounds only apply to fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters.

root_prior

Either a character or a numeric vector of size Nstates, specifying the prior probabilities of states for the root, i.e. the weights for obtaining a single model likelihood by averaging the root's state likelihoods. If a character, then it must be one of "flat", "empirical", "likelihoods", "max_likelihood" or "auto". "empirical" means the root's prior is set to the proportions of (estimated) extant species in each state (correcting for sampling fractions and reveal fractions, if applicable). "likelihoods" means that the computed state-likelihoods of the root are used, after normalizing to obtain a probability distribution; this is the approach used in the package hisse::hisse v1.8.9 under the option root.p=NULL, and the approach in the package diversitree::find.mle v0.9-10 under the option root=ROOT.OBS. If "max_likelihood", then the root's prior is set to a Dirac distribution, with full weight given to the maximum-likelihood state at the root (after applying the conditioning). If a numeric vector, root_prior specifies custom probabilities (weights) for each state. Note that if root_conditioning is "madfitz" or "herr_als" (see below), then the prior is set before the conditioning and not updated afterwards for consistency with other R packages.

root_conditioning

Character, specifying an optional modification to be applied to the root's state likelihoods prior to averaging. Can be "none" (no modification), "madfitz", "herr_als", "crown" or "stem". "madfitz" and "herr_als" (after van Els, Etiene and Herrera-Alsina 2018) are the options implemented in the package hisse v1.8.9, conditioning the root's state-likelihoods based on the birth-rates and the computed extinction probability (after or before averaging, respectively). See van Els (2018) for a comparison between "madfitz" and "herr_als". The option "stem" conditions the state likelihoods on the probability that the stem lineage would survive until the present. The option "crown" conditions the state likelihoods on the probability that a split occurred at oldest_age and that the two child lineages survived until the present; this option is only recommended if oldest_age is equal to the root age.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest age (time before present) to consider for fitting. If this is smaller than the tree's root age, then the tree is split into multiple subtrees at oldest_age, and each subtree is considered as an independent realization of the same diversification/evolution process whose parameters are to be estimated. The root_conditioning and root_prior are applied separately to each subtree, prior to calculating the joint (product) likelihood of all subtrees. This option can be used to restrict the fitting to a small (recent) time interval, during which the MuSSE/BiSSE assumptions (e.g., time-independent speciation/extinction/transition rates) are more likely to hold. If oldest_age is NULL, it is automatically set to the root age. In principle oldest_age may also be older than the root age.

Ntrials

Non-negative integer, specifying the number of trials for fitting the model, using alternative (randomized) starting parameters at each trial. A larger Ntrials reduces the risk of landing on a local non-global optimum of the likelihood function, and thus increases the chances of finding the truly best fit. If 0, then no fitting is performed, and only the first-guess (i.e., provided or guessed start params) is evaluated and returned. Hence, setting Ntrials=0 can be used to obtain a reasonable set of start parameters for subsequent fitting or for Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

Nscouts

Optional positive integer, number of randomly chosen starting points to consider for all fitting trials except the first one. Among all "scouted" starting points, the Ntrials-1 most promising ones will be considered. A greater number of scouts increases the chances of finding a global likelihood maximum. Each scout costs only one evaluation of the loglikelihood function. If NULL, Nscout is automatically chosen based on the number of fitted parameters and Ntrials. Only relevant if Ntrials>1, since the first trial always uses the default or provided parameter guess.

optim_algorithm

Character, specifying the optimization algorithm for fitting. Must be one of either "optim", "nlminb" or "subplex" (requires the nloptr package).

optim_max_iterations

Integer, maximum number of iterations allowed for fitting. Only relevant for "optim" and "nlminb".

optim_max_evaluations

Integer, maximum number of function evaluations allowed for fitting. Only relevant for "nlminb" and "subplex" (requires the nloptr package).

optim_rel_tol

Numeric, relative tolerance for the fitted log-likelihood.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to check the validity of input variables. If you are certain that all input variables are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

include_ancestral_likelihoods

Logical, specifying whether to include the state likelihoods for each node, in the returned variables. These are the “D” variables calculated as part of the likelihood based on the subtree descending from each node, and may be used for "local" ancestral state reconstructions.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of threads for running multiple fitting trials in parallel. Only relevant if Ntrials>1. Should generally not exceed the number of CPU cores on a machine. Must be a least 1.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying an optional number of bootstrap samplings to perform, for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of maximum-likelihood fitted parameters. If 0, no bootstrapping is performed. Typical values are 10-100. At each bootstrap sampling, a simulation of the fitted MuSSE/HiSSE model is performed, the parameters are estimated anew based on the simulation, and subsequently compared to the original fitted parameters. Each bootstrap sampling will thus use roughly as many computational resources as the original maximum-likelihood fit (e.g., same number of trials, same optimization parameters etc).

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

max_condition_number

Positive unitless number, specifying the maximum permissible condition number for the "G" matrix computed for the log-likelihood. A higher condition number leads to faster computation (roughly on a log-scale) especially for large trees, at the potential expense of lower accuracy. Typical values are 1e2-1e5. See Louca (2019) for further details on the condition number of the G matrix.

relative_ODE_step

Positive unitless number, specifying the default relative time step for the ordinary differential equation solvers.

E_value_step

Positive unitless number, specifying the relative difference between subsequent recorded and interpolated E-values, in the ODE solver for the extinction probabilities E (Louca 2019). Typical values are 1e-2 to 1e-5. A smaller E_value_step increases interpolation accuracy, but also increases memory requirements and adds runtime (scaling with the tree's age span, not Ntips).

D_temporal_resolution

Positive unitless number, specifying the relative resolution for interpolating G-map over time (Louca 2019). This is relative to the typical time scales at which G-map varies. For example, a resolution of 10 means that within a typical time scale there will be 10 interpolation points. Typical values are 1-1000. A greater resolution increases interpolation accuracy, but also increases memory requirements and adds runtime (scaling with the tree's age span, not Ntips).

max_model_runtime

Numeric, optional maximum number of seconds for evaluating the likelihood of a model, prior to cancelling the calculation and returning Inf. This may be useful if extreme model parameters (e.g., reached transiently during fitting) require excessive calculation time. Parameters for which the calculation of the likelihood exceed this threshold, will be considered invalid and thus avoided during fitting. For example, for trees with 1000 tips a time limit of 10 seconds may be reasonable. If 0, no time limit is imposed.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. In any case, fatal errors are always reported.

diagnostics

Logical, specifying whether to print detailed information (such as model likelihoods) at every iteration of the fitting routine. For debugging purposes mainly.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports, warnings and errors to the screen.

Details

HiSSE/SecSSE models include two discrete traits, one trait that defines the rate categories of diversification rates (as in BiSSE/MuSSE), and one trait that does not itself influence diversification but whose states (here called "proxy states") each represent one or more of the diversity-modulating states. HiSSE models (Beaulieu and O'meara, 2016) and SecSSE models (van Els et al., 2018) are closely related to BiSSE/MuSSE models, the main difference being the fact that the actual diversification-modulating states are not directly observed. In essence, a HiSSE/SecSSE model is a BiSSE/MuSSE model, where the final tip states are replaced by their proxy states, thus "masking" the underlying diversity-modulating trait. This function is able to fit HiSSE/SecSSE models with appropriate choice of the input variables Nstates, NPstates and proxy_map. Note that the terminology and setup of HiSSE/SecSSE models followed here differs from their description in the original papers by Beaulieu and O'meara (2016) and van Els et al. (2018), in order to achieve what we think is a more intuitive unification of BiSSE/MuSSE/HiSSE/SecSSE. For ease of terminology, when considering a BiSSE/MuSSE model, here we use the terms "states" and "proxy-states" interchangeably, since under BiSSE/MuSSE the proxy trait can be considered identical to the diversification-modulating trait. A distinction between "states" and "proxy-states" is only relevant for HiSSE/SecSSE models.

As an example of a HiSSE model, Nstates=4, NPstates=2 and proxy_map=c(1,2,1,2) specifies that states 1 and 3 are represented by proxy-state 1, and states 2 and 4 are represented by proxy-state 2. This is the original case described by Beaulieu and O'Meara (2016); in their terminology, there would be 2 "hidden"" states ("0" and "1") and 2 "observed" states ("A" and "B"), and the 4 diversification rate categories (Nstates=4) would be called "0A", "1A", "0B" and "1B". The somewhat different terminology used here allows for easier generalization to an arbitrary number of diversification-modulating states and an arbitrary number of proxy states. For example, if there are 6 diversification modulating states, represented by 3 proxy-states as 1->A, 2->A, 3->B, 4->C, 5->C, 6->C, then one would set Nstates=6, NPstates=3 and proxy_map=c(1,1,2,3,3,3).

The run time of this function scales asymptotically linearly with tree size (Ntips), although run times can vary substantially depending on model parameters. As a rule of thumb, the higher the birth/death/transition rates are compared to the tree's overall time span, the slower the calculation becomes.

The following arguments control the tradeoff between accuracy and computational efficiency:

  • max_condition_number: A smaller value means greater accuracy, at longer runtime and more memory.

  • relative_ODE_step: A smaller value means greater accuracy, at longer runtime.

  • E_value_step: A smaller value means greater accuracy, at longer runtime and more memory.

  • D_temporal_resolution: A greater value means greater accuracy, at longer runtime and more memory.

Typically, the default values for these arguments should be fine. For smaller trees, where cladogenic and sampling stochasticity is the main source of uncertainty, these parameters can probably be made less stringent (i.e., leading to lower accuracy and faster computation), but then again for small trees computational efficiency may not be an issue anyway.

Note that the old option max_start_attempts has been removed. Consider using Nscouts instead.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful. If FALSE, an additional element error (of type character) is included containing an explanation of the error; in that case the value of any of the other elements is undetermined.

Nstates

Integer, the number of states assumed for the model.

NPstates

Integer, the number of proxy states assumed for the model. Note that in the case of a BiSSE/MuSSE model, this will be the same as Nstates.

root_prior

Character, or numeric vector of length Nstates, specifying the root prior used.

parameters

Named list containing the final maximum-likelihood fitted model parameters. If Ntrials>1, then this contains the fitted parameters yielding the highest likelihood. Will contain the following elements:

  • transition_matrix: 2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing the fitted transition rates between states.

  • birth_rates: Numeric vector of length Nstates, listing the fitted state-dependent birth rates.

  • death_rates: Numeric vector of length Nstates, listing the fitted state-dependent death rates.

start_parameters

Named list containing the default start parameter values for the fitting. Structured similarly to parameters. Note that if Ntrials>1, only the first trial will have used these start values, all other trials will have used randomized start values. Will be defined even if Ntrials==0, and can thus be used to obtain a reasonable guess for the start parameters without actually fitting the model.

loglikelihood

Numeric, the maximized log-likelihood of the model, if fitting succeeded.

AIC

Numeric, the Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

Niterations

The number of iterations needed for the best fit. Only relevant if the optimization method was "optim" or "nlminb".

Nevaluations

Integer, the number of function evaluations needed for the best fit. Only relevant if the optimization method was "nlminb" or "subplex".

converged

Logical, indicating whether convergence was successful during fitting. If convergence was not achieved, and the fitting was stopped due to one of the stopping criteria optim_max_iterations or optim_max_evaluations, the final likelihood will still be returned, but the fitted parameters may not be reasonable.

warnings

Character vector, listing any warnings encountered during evaluation of the likelihood function at the fitted parameter values. For example, this vector may contain warnings regarding the differential equation solvers or regarding the rank of the G-matrix (Louca, 2019).

subroots

Integer vector, listing indices of tips/nodes in the tree that were considered as starting points of independent MuSSE processes. If oldest_age was equal to or greater than the root age, then subroots will simply list the tree's root.

ML_subroot_states

Integer vector, with values between 1 and Nstates, giving the maximum-likelihood estimate of each subroot's state.

ML_substem_states

Integer vector, with values between 1 and Nstates, giving the maximum-likelihood estimate of the state at each subroot's stem (i.e., exactly at oldest_age).

trial_start_loglikelihoods

Numeric vector of length Ntrials, listing the initial loglikelihoods (i.e., at the starting parameter values) for each fitting trial.

trial_loglikelihoods

Numeric vector of length Ntrials, listing the maximized loglikelihoods for each fitting trial. These may be used for diagnosing the robustness of maximum-likelihood estimates and the assessing the needed for increasing Ntrials.

trial_Niterations

Integer vector of length Ntrials, listing the number of iterations of each trial. Depending on the fitting algorithm used (option optim_algorithm), these may be NA (not available).

trial_Nevaluations

Integer vector of length Ntrials, listing the number of likelihood evaluations of each trial. Depending on the fitting algorithm used (option optim_algorithm), these may be NA (not available).

standard_errors

Named list containing the elements "transition_matrix" (numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates), "birth_rates" (numeric vector of size Nstates) and "death_rates" (numeric vector of size Nstates), listing standard errors of all model parameters estimated using parametric bootstrapping. Only included if Nbootstraps>0. Note that the standard errors of non-fitted (i.e., fixed) parameters will be zero.

CI50lower

Named list containing the elements "transition_matrix" (numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates), "birth_rates" (numeric vector of size Nstates) and "death_rates" (numeric vector of size Nstates), listing the lower end of the 50% confidence interval (i.e. the 25% quantile) for each model parameter, estimated using parametric bootstrapping. Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Similar to CI50lower, but listing the upper end of the 50% confidence interval (i.e. the 75% quantile) for each model parameter. For example, the confidence interval for he birth-rate λ1\lambda_1 will be between CI50lower$birth_rates[1] and CI50upper$birth_rates[1]. Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Similar to CI50lower, but listing the lower end of the 95% confidence interval (i.e. the 2.5% quantile) for each model parameter. Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Similar to CI50upper, but listing the upper end of the 95% confidence interval (i.e. the 97.5% quantile) for each model parameter. Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

CI

2D numeric matrix, listing maximum-likelihood estimates, standard errors and confidence intervals for all model parameters (one row per parameter, one column for ML-estimates, one column for standard errors, two columns per confidence interval). Standard errors and confidence intervals are as estimated using parametric bootstrapping. This matrix contains the same information as parameters, standard_errors, CI50lower, CI50upper, CI95lower and CI95upper, but in a more compact format. Only included if Nbootstraps>0.

ancestral_likelihoods

2D matrix of size Nnodes x Nstates, listing the computed state-likelihoods for each node in the tree. These may be used for "local" ancestral state reconstructions, based on the information contained in the subtree descending from each node. Note that for each node the ancestral likelihoods have been normalized for numerical reasons, however they should not be interpreted as actual probabilities. For each node n and state s, ancestral_likelihoods[n,s] is proportional to the likelihood of observing the descending subtree and associated tip proxy states, if node n was at state s. Only included if include_ancestral_likelihoods==TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

W. P. Maddison, P. E. Midford, S. P. Otto (2007). Estimating a binary character's effect on speciation and extinction. Systematic Biology. 56:701-710.

R. G. FitzJohn, W. P. Maddison, S. P. Otto (2009). Estimating trait-dependent speciation and extinction rates from incompletely resolved phylogenies. Systematic Biology. 58:595-611

R. G. FitzJohn (2012). Diversitree: comparative phylogenetic analyses of diversification in R. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 3:1084-1092

J. M. Beaulieu and B. C. O'Meara (2016). Detecting hidden diversification shifts in models of trait-dependent speciation and extinction. Systematic Biology. 65:583-601.

D. Kuehnert, T. Stadler, T. G. Vaughan, A. J. Drummond (2016). Phylodynamics with migration: A computational framework to quantify population structure from genomic data. Molecular Biology and Evolution. 33:2102-2116.

P. van Els, R. S. Etiene, L. Herrera-Alsina (2018). Detecting the dependence of diversification on multiple traits from phylogenetic trees and trait data. Systematic Biology. syy057.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). A general and efficient algorithm for the likelihood of diversification and discrete-trait evolutionary models. Systematic Biology. 69:545-556. DOI:10.1093/sysbio/syz055

See Also

simulate_dsse, asr_mk_model, fit_tree_model

Examples

# EXAMPLE 1: BiSSE model
# - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
# Choose random BiSSE model parameters
Nstates = 2
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ARD", max_rate=0.1)
parameters = list(birth_rates       = runif(Nstates,5,10),
                  death_rates       = runif(Nstates,0,5),
                  transition_matrix = Q)
rarefaction = 0.5 # randomly omit half of the tips

# Simulate a tree under the BiSSE model
simulation = simulate_musse(Nstates, 
                            parameters         = parameters, 
                            max_tips           = 1000,
                            sampling_fractions = rarefaction)
tree       = simulation$tree
tip_states = simulation$tip_states

## Not run: 
# fit BiSSE model to tree & tip data
fit = fit_musse(tree,
                Nstates            = Nstates,
                tip_pstates        = tip_states,
                sampling_fractions = rarefaction)
if(!fit$success){
  cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed"))
}else{
  # compare fitted birth rates to true values
  errors = (fit$parameters$birth_rates - parameters$birth_rates)
  relative_errors = errors/parameters$birth_rates
  cat(sprintf("BiSSE relative birth-rate errors:\n"))
  print(relative_errors)
}

## End(Not run)


# EXAMPLE 2: HiSSE model, with bootstrapping
# - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
# Choose random HiSSE model parameters
Nstates  = 4
NPstates = 2
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ARD", max_rate=0.1)
rarefaction = 0.5 # randomly omit half of the tips
parameters = list(birth_rates       = runif(Nstates,5,10),
                  death_rates       = runif(Nstates,0,5),
                  transition_matrix = Q)
                  
# reveal the state of 30% & 60% of tips (in state 1 & 2, respectively)
reveal_fractions = c(0.3,0.6)

# use proxy map corresponding to Beaulieu and O'Meara (2016)
proxy_map = c(1,2,1,2)

# Simulate a tree under the HiSSE model
simulation = simulate_musse(Nstates, 
                            NPstates            = NPstates,
                            proxy_map           = proxy_map,
                            parameters          = parameters, 
                            max_tips            = 1000,
                            sampling_fractions  = rarefaction,
                            reveal_fractions    = reveal_fractions)
tree       = simulation$tree
tip_states = simulation$tip_proxy_states

## Not run: 
# fit HiSSE model to tree & tip data
# run multiple trials to ensure global optimum
# also estimate confidence intervals via bootstrapping
fit = fit_musse(tree,
                Nstates            = Nstates,
                NPstates           = NPstates,
                proxy_map          = proxy_map,
                tip_pstates        = tip_states,
                sampling_fractions = rarefaction,
                reveal_fractions   = reveal_fractions,
                Ntrials            = 5,
                Nbootstraps        = 10,
                max_model_runtime  = 0.1)
if(!fit$success){
  cat(sprintf("ERROR: Fitting failed"))
}else{
  # compare fitted birth rates to true values
  errors = (fit$parameters$birth_rates - parameters$birth_rates)
  relative_errors = errors/parameters$birth_rates
  cat(sprintf("HiSSE relative birth-rate errors:\n"))
  print(relative_errors)
  
  # print 95%-confidence interval for first birth rate
  cat(sprintf("CI95 for lambda1: %g-%g",
              fit$CI95lower$birth_rates[1],
              fit$CI95upper$birth_rates[1]))
}

## End(Not run)

Fit a phylogeographic Spherical Brownian Motion model.

Description

Given one or more rooted phylogenetic trees and geographic coordinates (latitudes & longitudes) for the tips of each tree, this function estimates the diffusivity of a Spherical Brownian Motion (SBM) model for the evolution of geographic location along lineages (Perrin 1928; Brillinger 2012). Estimation is done via maximum-likelihood and using independent contrasts between sister lineages.

Usage

fit_sbm_const(trees, 
        tip_latitudes, 
        tip_longitudes, 
        radius,
        phylodistance_matrixes  = NULL,
        clade_states            = NULL,
        planar_approximation    = FALSE,
        only_basal_tip_pairs    = FALSE,
        only_distant_tip_pairs  = FALSE,
        min_MRCA_time           = 0,
        max_MRCA_age            = Inf,
        max_phylodistance       = Inf,
        no_state_transitions    = FALSE,
        only_state              = NULL,
        min_diffusivity         = NULL,
        max_diffusivity         = NULL,
        Nbootstraps             = 0, 
        NQQ                     = 0,
        SBM_PD_functor          = NULL,
        focal_diffusivities     = NULL)

Arguments

trees

Either a single rooted tree or a list of rooted trees, of class "phylo". The root of each tree is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance. When multiple trees are provided, it is either assumed that their roots coincide in time (if align_trees_at_root=TRUE) or that each tree's youngest tip was sampled at present day (if align_trees_at_root=FALSE).

tip_latitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, or a list of vectors, listing latitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -90 to 90). If trees is a list of trees, then tip_latitudes should be a list of vectors of the same length as trees, listing tip latitudes for each of the input trees.

tip_longitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, or a list of vectors, listing longitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -180 to 180). If trees is a list of trees, then tip_longitudes should be a list of vectors of the same length as trees, listing tip longitudes for each of the input trees.

radius

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the radius of the sphere. For Earth, the mean radius is 6371 km.

phylodistance_matrixes

Numeric matrix, or a list of numeric matrixes, listing phylogenetic distances between tips for each tree. If trees is a list of trees, then phylodistance_matrixes should be a list of the same length as trees, whose n-th element should be a numeric matrix comprising as many rows and columns as there are tips in the n-th tree; the entry phylodistance_matrixes[[n]][i,j] is the phylogenetic distance between tips i and j in tree n. If trees is a single tree, then phylodistance_matrixes can be a single numeric matrix. If NULL (default), phylogenetic distances between tips are calculated based on the provided trees, otherwise phylogenetic distances are taken from phylodistance_matrixes; in the latter case the trees are only used for the topology (determining tip pairs for independent contrasts), but not for calculating phylogenetic distances.

clade_states

Either NULL, or an integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, or a list of integer vectors, listing discrete states of every tip and node in the tree. If trees is a list of trees, then clade_states should be a list of vectors of the same length as trees, listing tip and node states for each of the input trees. For example, clade_states[[2]][10] specifies the state of the 10-th tip or node in the 2nd tree. States may be, for example, geographic regions, sub-types, discrete traits etc, and can be used to restrict independent contrasts to tip pairs within the same state (see option no_state_transitions).

planar_approximation

Logical, specifying whether to estimate the diffusivity based on a planar approximation of the SBM model, i.e. by assuming that geographic distances between tips are as if tips are distributed on a 2D cartesian plane. This approximation is only accurate if geographical distances between tips are small compared to the sphere's radius.

only_basal_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare immediate sister tips, i.e., tips connected through a single parental node.

only_distant_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare tips at distinct geographic locations.

min_MRCA_time

Numeric, specifying the minimum allowed time (distance from root) of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at least this distance from the root. Set min_MRCA_time<=0 to disable this filter.

max_MRCA_age

Numeric, specifying the maximum allowed age (distance from youngest tip) of the MRCA of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at most this age (time to present). Set max_MRCA_age=Inf to disable this filter.

max_phylodistance

Numeric, maximum allowed geodistance for an independent contrast to be included in the SBM fitting. Set max_phylodistance=Inf to disable this filter.

no_state_transitions

Logical, specifying whether to omit independent contrasts between tips whose shortest connecting paths include state transitions. If TRUE, only tips within the same state and with no transitions between them (as specified in clade_states) are compared. If TRUE, then clade_states must be provided.

only_state

Optional integer, specifying the state in which tip pairs (and their connecting ancestral nodes) must be in order to be considered. If specified, then clade_states must be provided.

min_diffusivity

Non-negative numeric, specifying the minimum possible diffusivity. If NULL, this is automatically chosen.

max_diffusivity

Non-negative numeric, specifying the maximum possible diffusivity. If NULL, this is automatically chosen.

Nbootstraps

Non-negative integer, specifying an optional number of parametric bootstraps to performs for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals.

NQQ

Integer, optional number of simulations to perform for creating QQ plots of the theoretically expected distribution of geodistances vs. the empirical distribution of geodistances (across independent contrasts). The resolution of the returned QQ plot will be equal to the number of independent contrasts used for fitting. If <=0, no QQ plots will be calculated.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes, and should be kept at its default value NULL.

focal_diffusivities

Optional numeric vector, listing diffusivities of particular interest and for which the log-likelihoods should be returned. This may be used e.g. for diagnostic purposes, e.g. to see how "sharp" the likelihood peak is at the maximum-likelihood estimate.

Details

For short expected transition distances this function uses the approximation formula by Ghosh et al. (2012). For longer expected transition distances the function uses a truncated approximation of the series representation of SBM transition densities (Perrin 1928). It is assumed that tips are sampled randomly without any biases for certain geographic regions. If you suspect strong geographic sampling biases, consider using the function fit_sbm_geobiased_const.

This function can use multiple trees to fit the diffusivity under the assumption that each tree is an independent realization of the same SBM process, i.e. all lineages in all trees dispersed with the same diffusivity.

If edge.length is missing from one of the input trees, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations as well as monofurcations, however multifurcations are internally expanded into bifurcations by adding dummy nodes.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

diffusivity

Numeric, the estimated diffusivity, in units distance^2/time. Distance units are the same as used for the radius, and time units are the same as the tree's edge lengths. For example, if the radius was specified in km and edge lengths are in Myr, then the estimated diffusivity will be in km^2/Myr.

loglikelihood

Numeric, the log-likelihood of the data at the estimated diffusivity.

Ncontrasts

Integer, number of independent contrasts (i.e., tip pairs) used to estimate the diffusivity. This is the number of independent data points used.

phylodistances

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing the phylogenetic distances of the independent contrasts used in the fitting.

geodistances

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing the geographical distances of the independent contrasts used in the fitting.

focal_loglikelihoods

Numeric vector of the same length as focal_diffusivities, listing the log-likelihoods for the diffusivities provided in focal_diffusivities.

standard_error

Numeric, estimated standard error of the estimated diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Numeric, lower bound of the 50% confidence interval for the estimated diffusivity (25-75% percentile), based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Numeric, upper bound of the 50% confidence interval for the estimated diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Numeric, lower bound of the 95% confidence interval for the estimated diffusivity (2.5-97.5% percentile), based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Numeric, upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the estimated diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

consistency

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated consistency of the data with the fitted model. If LL denotes the loglikelihood of new data generated by the fitted model (under the same model) and MM denotes the expectation of LL, then consistency is the probability that LM|L-M| will be greater or equal to XM|X-M|, where XX is the loglikelihood of the original data under the fitted model. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0. A low consistency (e.g., <0.05) indicates that the fitted model is a poor description of the data. See Lindholm et al. (2019) for background.

QQplot

Numeric matrix of size Ncontrasts x 2, listing the computed QQ-plot. The first column lists quantiles of geodistances in the original dataset, the 2nd column lists quantiles of hypothetical geodistances simulated based on the fitted model.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

F. Perrin (1928). Etude mathematique du mouvement Brownien de rotation. 45:1-51.

D. R. Brillinger (2012). A particle migrating randomly on a sphere. in Selected Works of David Brillinger. Springer.

A. Ghosh, J. Samuel, S. Sinha (2012). A Gaussian for diffusion on the sphere. Europhysics Letters. 98:30003.

A. Lindholm, D. Zachariah, P. Stoica, T. B. Schoen (2019). Data consistency approach to model validation. IEEE Access. 7:59788-59796.

S. Louca (2021). Phylogeographic estimation and simulation of global diffusive dispersal. Systematic Biology. 70:340-359.

See Also

fit_sbm_geobiased_const, simulate_sbm, fit_sbm_parametric, fit_sbm_linear, fit_sbm_on_grid

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=500)$tree

# simulate SBM on the tree
D = 1e4
simulation = simulate_sbm(tree, radius=6371, diffusivity=D)

# fit SBM on the tree
fit = fit_sbm_const(tree,simulation$tip_latitudes,simulation$tip_longitudes,radius=6371)
cat(sprintf('True D=%g, fitted D=%g\n',D,fit$diffusivity))

## End(Not run)

Fit a phylogeographic Spherical Brownian Motion model with geographic sampling bias.

Description

Given one or more rooted phylogenetic trees and geographic coordinates (latitudes & longitudes) for the tips of each tree, this function estimates the diffusivity of a Spherical Brownian Motion (SBM) model for the evolution of geographic location along lineages (Perrin 1928; Brillinger 2012), while correcting for geographic sampling biases. Estimation is done via maximum-likelihood and using independent contrasts between sister lineages, while correction for geographic sampling bias is done through an iterative simulation+fitting process until convergence.

Usage

fit_sbm_geobiased_const(trees,
                        tip_latitudes,
                        tip_longitudes,
                        radius,
                        reference_latitudes    = NULL,
                        reference_longitudes   = NULL,
                        only_basal_tip_pairs   = FALSE,
                        only_distant_tip_pairs = FALSE,
                        min_MRCA_time          = 0,
                        max_MRCA_age           = Inf,
                        max_phylodistance      = Inf,
                        min_diffusivity        = NULL,
                        max_diffusivity        = NULL,
                        rarefaction            = 0.1,
                        Nsims                  = 100,
                        max_iterations         = 100,
                        Nbootstraps            = 0,
                        NQQ                    = 0,
                        Nthreads               = 1,
                        include_simulations    = FALSE,
                        SBM_PD_functor         = NULL,
                        verbose                = FALSE,
                        verbose_prefix         = "")

Arguments

trees

Either a single rooted tree or a list of rooted trees, of class "phylo". The root of each tree is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance. When multiple trees are provided, it is either assumed that their roots coincide in time (if align_trees_at_root=TRUE) or that each tree's youngest tip was sampled at present day (if align_trees_at_root=FALSE).

tip_latitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, or a list of vectors, listing latitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -90 to 90). If trees is a list of trees, then tip_latitudes should be a list of vectors of the same length as trees, listing tip latitudes for each of the input trees.

tip_longitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, or a list of vectors, listing longitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -180 to 180). If trees is a list of trees, then tip_longitudes should be a list of vectors of the same length as trees, listing tip longitudes for each of the input trees.

radius

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the radius of the sphere. For Earth, the mean radius is 6371 km.

reference_latitudes

Optional numeric vector, listing latitudes of reference coordinates based on which to calculate the geographic sampling density. If NULL, the geographic sampling density is estimated based on tip_latitudes and tip_longitudes.

reference_longitudes

Optional numeric vector of the same length as reference_latitudes, listing latitudes of reference coordinates based on which to calculate the geographic sampling density. If NULL, the geographic sampling density is estimated based on tip_latitudes and tip_longitudes.

only_basal_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare immediate sister tips, i.e., tips connected through a single parental node.

only_distant_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare tips at distinct geographic locations.

min_MRCA_time

Numeric, specifying the minimum allowed time (distance from root) of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at least this distance from the root. Set min_MRCA_time<=0 to disable this filter.

max_MRCA_age

Numeric, specifying the maximum allowed age (distance from youngest tip) of the MRCA of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at most this age (time to present). Set max_MRCA_age=Inf to disable this filter.

max_phylodistance

Numeric, maximum allowed geodistance for an independent contrast to be included in the SBM fitting. Set max_phylodistance=Inf to disable this filter.

min_diffusivity

Non-negative numeric, specifying the minimum possible diffusivity. If NULL, this is automatically chosen.

max_diffusivity

Non-negative numeric, specifying the maximum possible diffusivity. If NULL, this is automatically chosen.

rarefaction

Numeric, between 00 and 1, specifying the fraction of extant lineages to sample from the simulated trees. Should be strictly smaller than 1, in order for geographic bias correction to have an effect. Note that regardless of rarefaction, the simulated trees will have the same size as the original trees.

Nsims

Integer, number of SBM simulatons to perform per iteration for assessing the effects of geographic bias. Smaller trees require larger Nsims (due to higher stochasticity). This must be at least 2, although values of 100-1000 are recommended.

max_iterations

Integer, maximum number of iterations (correction steps) to perform before giving up.

Nbootstraps

Non-negative integer, specifying an optional number of parametric bootstraps to performs for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals.

NQQ

Integer, optional number of simulations to perform for creating QQ plots of the theoretically expected distribution of geodistances vs. the empirical distribution of geodistances (across independent contrasts). The resolution of the returned QQ plot will be equal to the number of independent contrasts used for fitting. If <=0, no QQ plots will be calculated.

Nthreads

Integer, number of parallel threads to use. Ignored on Windows machines.

include_simulations

Logical, whether to include the trees and tip coordinates simulated under the final fitted SBM model, in the returned results. May be useful e.g. for checking model adequacy.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes, and should be kept at its default value NULL.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

This function tries to estimate the true spherical diffusivity of an SBM model of geographic diffusive dispersal, while correcting for geographic sampling biases. This is done using an iterative refinement approach, by which trees and tip locations are repeatedly simulated under the current true diffusivity estimate and the diffusivity estimated from those simulated data are compared to the originally uncorrected diffusivity estimate. Trees are simulated according to a birth-death model with constant rates, fitted to the original input trees (a congruent birth-death model is chosen to match the requested rarefaction). Simulated trees are subsampled (rarefied) to match the original input tree sizes, with sampled lineages chosen randomly but in a geographically biased way that resembles the original geographic sampling density (e.g., as inferred from the reference_latitudes and reference_longitudes). Internally, this function repeatedly applies fit_sbm_const and simulate_sbm. If the true sampling fraction of the input trees is unknown, then it is advised to perform the analysis with a few alternative rarefaction values (e.g., 0.01 and 0.1) to verify the robustness of the estimates.

If edge.length is missing from one of the input trees, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations as well as monofurcations, however multifurcations are internally expanded into bifurcations by adding dummy nodes.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

Nlat

Integer, number of latitude-tiles used for building a map of the geographic sampling biases.

Nlon

Integer, number of longitude-tiles used for building a map of the geographic sampling biases.

diffusivity

Numeric, the estimated true diffusivity, i.e. accounting for geographic sampling biases, in units distance^2/time. Distance units are the same as used for the radius, and time units are the same as the tree's edge lengths. For example, if the radius was specified in km and edge lengths are in Myr, then the estimated diffusivity will be in km^2/Myr.

correction_factor

Numeric, estimated ratio between the true diffusivity and the original (uncorrected) diffusivity estimate.

Niterations

Integer, the number of iterations performed until convergence.

stopping_criterion

Character, a short description of the criterion by which the iteration was eventually halted.

uncorrected_fit_diffusivity

Numeric, the originally estimated (uncorrected) diffusivity.

last_sim_fit_diffusivity

Numeric, the mean uncorrected diffuvity estimated from the simulated data in the last iteration. Convergence means that last_sim_fit_diffusivity came close to uncorrected_fit_diffusivity.

all_correction_factors

Numeric vector of length Niterations, listing the estimated correction factors in each iteration.

all_diffusivity_estimates

Numeric vector of length Niterations, listing the mean uncorrected diffusivity estimated from the simulated data in each iteration.

Ntrees

Integer, number of trees considered for the simulations. This might have smaller than length(trees), if for some trees fitting a birth-death model was not possible.

lambda

Numeric vector of length Ntrees, listing the birth rates used to simulate the trees.

mu

Numeric vector of length Ntrees, listing the death rates used to simulate the trees.

rarefaction

Numeric vector of length Ntrees, listing the rarefactions (sampling fractions) used to simulate the trees. These will typically be equal to the rarefaction provided by the function caller, but may differ for example if the congruence class did not include a birth-death model with the requested rarefaction.

Ncontrasts

Integer, number of independent contrasts (i.e., tip pairs) used to estimate the diffusivity. This is the number of independent data points used.

standard_error

Numeric, estimated standard error of the estimated true diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Numeric, lower bound of the 50% confidence interval for the estimated true diffusivity (25-75% percentile), based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Numeric, upper bound of the 50% confidence interval for the estimated true diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Numeric, lower bound of the 95% confidence interval for the estimated true diffusivity (2.5-97.5% percentile), based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Numeric, upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the estimated true diffusivity, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

QQplot

Numeric matrix of size Ncontrasts x 2, listing the computed QQ-plot. The first column lists quantiles of geodistances in the original dataset, the 2nd column lists quantiles of hypothetical geodistances simulated based on the estimated true diffusivity.

simulations

List, containing the trees and tip coordinates simulated under the final fitted SBM model, accounting for geographic biases. Each entry is itself a named list, containing the simulations corresponding to a specific input tree. In particular, simulations[[t]]$sims[[r]] is the r-th simulation performed that corresponds to the t-th input tree. Each simulation is again a named list, containing the elements success (logical), tree (of class phylo), latitudes (numeric vector) and longitudes (numeric vector). This data structure may be useful for testing the adequacy of the fitted SBM model; only use this if you know what you are doing. Only returned if include_simulations was TRUE.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes. Most users can ignore this.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

F. Perrin (1928). Etude mathematique du mouvement Brownien de rotation. 45:1-51.

D. R. Brillinger (2012). A particle migrating randomly on a sphere. in Selected Works of David Brillinger. Springer.

A. Ghosh, J. Samuel, S. Sinha (2012). A Gaussian for diffusion on the sphere. Europhysics Letters. 98:30003.

S. Louca (2021). Phylogeographic estimation and simulation of global diffusive dispersal. Systematic Biology. 70:340-359.

S. Louca (in review as of 2021). The rates of global microbial dispersal.

See Also

simulate_sbm, fit_sbm_parametric, fit_sbm_linear, fit_sbm_on_grid

Examples

## Not run: 
NFullTips   = 10000
diffusivity = 1
radius      = 6371

# generate tree and run SBM on it
cat(sprintf("Generating tree and simulating SBM (true D=%g)..\n",diffusivity))
tree = castor::generate_tree_hbd_reverse(Ntips  = NFullTips,
                                         lambda = 5e-7,
                                         mu     = 2e-7,
                                         rho    = 1)$trees[[1]]
SBMsim = simulate_sbm(tree = tree, radius = radius, diffusivity = diffusivity)

# select subset of tips only found in certain geographic regions
min_abs_lat = 30
max_abs_lat = 80
min_lon     = 0
max_lon     = 90
keep_tips   = which((abs(SBMsim$tip_latitudes)<=max_abs_lat)
                    & (abs(SBMsim$tip_latitudes)>=min_abs_lat)
                    & (SBMsim$tip_longitudes<=max_lon)
                    & (SBMsim$tip_longitudes>=min_lon))
rarefaction     = castor::get_subtree_with_tips(tree, only_tips = keep_tips)
tree            = rarefaction$subtree
tip_latitudes   = SBMsim$tip_latitudes[rarefaction$new2old_tip]
tip_longitudes  = SBMsim$tip_longitudes[rarefaction$new2old_tip]
Ntips           = length(tree$tip.label)
rarefaction     = Ntips/NFullTips

# fit SBM while correcting for geographic sampling biases
fit = castor:::fit_sbm_geobiased_const(trees            = tree,
                                       tip_latitudes    = tip_latitudes,
                                       tip_longitudes   = tip_longitudes,
                                       radius           = radius,
                                       rarefaction      = Ntips/NFullTips,
                                       Nsims            = 10,
                                       Nthreads         = 4,
                                       verbose          = TRUE,
                                       verbose_prefix   = "  ")
if(!fit$success){
    cat(sprintf("ERROR: %s\n",fit$error))
}else{
    cat(sprintf("Estimated true D = %g\n",fit$diffusivity))
}

## End(Not run)

Fit a phylogeographic Spherical Brownian Motion model with linearly varying diffusivity.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and geographic coordinates (latitudes & longitudes) for its tips, this function estimates the diffusivity of a Spherical Brownian Motion (SBM) model for the evolution of geographic location along lineages (Perrin 1928; Brillinger 2012), assuming that the diffusivity varies linearly over time. Estimation is done via maximum-likelihood and using independent contrasts between sister lineages. This function is designed to estimate the diffusivity over time, by fitting two parameters defining the diffusivity as a linear function of time. For fitting more general functional forms see fit_sbm_parametric.

Usage

fit_sbm_linear(tree, 
              tip_latitudes,
              tip_longitudes,
              radius,
              clade_states          = NULL,
              planar_approximation  = FALSE,
              only_basal_tip_pairs  = FALSE,
              only_distant_tip_pairs= FALSE,
              min_MRCA_time         = 0,
              max_MRCA_age          = Inf,
              max_phylodistance     = Inf,
              no_state_transitions  = FALSE,
              only_state            = NULL,
              time1                 = 0,
              time2                 = NULL,
              Ntrials               = 1,
              Nthreads              = 1,
              Nbootstraps           = 0,
              Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
              Nsignificance         = 0,
              NQQ                   = 0,
              fit_control           = list(),
              SBM_PD_functor        = NULL,
              verbose               = FALSE,
              verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

tip_latitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing latitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -90 to 90). The order of entries must correspond to the order of tips in the tree (i.e., as listed in tree$tip.label).

tip_longitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing longitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -180 to 180). The order of entries must correspond to the order of tips in the tree (i.e., as listed in tree$tip.label).

radius

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the radius of the sphere. For Earth, the mean radius is 6371 km.

clade_states

Optional integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing discrete states of every tip and node in the tree. The order of entries must match the order of tips and nodes in the tree. States may be, for example, geographic regions, sub-types, discrete traits etc, and can be used to restrict independent contrasts to tip pairs within the same state (see option no_state_transitions).

planar_approximation

Logical, specifying whether to estimate the diffusivity based on a planar approximation of the SBM model, i.e. by assuming that geographic distances between tips are as if tips are distributed on a 2D cartesian plane. This approximation is only accurate if geographical distances between tips are small compared to the sphere's radius.

only_basal_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare immediate sister tips, i.e., tips connected through a single parental node.

only_distant_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare tips at distinct geographic locations.

min_MRCA_time

Numeric, specifying the minimum allowed time (distance from root) of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at least this distance from the root. Set min_MRCA_time=0 to disable this filter.

max_MRCA_age

Numeric, specifying the maximum allowed age (distance from youngest tip) of the MRCA of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at most this age (time to present). Set max_MRCA_age=Inf to disable this filter.

max_phylodistance

Numeric, maximum allowed geodistance for an independent contrast to be included in the SBM fitting. Set max_phylodistance=Inf to disable this filter.

no_state_transitions

Logical, specifying whether to omit independent contrasts between tips whose shortest connecting paths include state transitions. If TRUE, only tips within the same state and with no transitions between them (as specified in clade_states) are compared.

only_state

Optional integer, specifying the state in which tip pairs (and their connecting ancestral nodes) must be in order to be considered. If specified, then clade_states must be provided.

time1

Optional numeric, specifying the first time point at which to estimate the diffusivity. By default this is set to root (i.e., time 0).

time2

Optional numeric, specifying the first time point at which to estimate the diffusivity. By default this is set to the present day (i.e., the maximum distance of any tip from the root).

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of estimated model parameters. Set to 0 for no bootstrapping.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

Nsignificance

Integer, specifying the number of simulations to perform under a const-diffusivity model for assessing the statistical significance of the fitted slope. Set to 0 to not calculate the significance of the slope.

NQQ

Integer, optional number of simulations to perform for creating QQ plots of the theoretically expected distribution of geodistances vs. the empirical distribution of geodistances (across independent contrasts). The resolution of the returned QQ plot will be equal to the number of independent contrasts used for fitting. If <=0, no QQ plots will be calculated.

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes, and should be kept at its default value NULL.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen.

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

This function is essentially a wrapper for the more general function fit_sbm_parametric, with the addition that it can estimate the statistical significance of the fitted linear slope.

The statistical significance of the slope is the probability that a constant-diffusivity SBM model would generate data that would yield a fitted linear slope equal to or greater than the one fitted to the original data; the significance is estimated by simulating Nsignificance constant-diffusivity models and then fitting a linear-diffusivity model. The constant diffusivity assumed in these simulations is the maximum-likelihood diffusivity fitted internally using fit_sbm_const.

Note that estimation of diffusivity at older times is only possible if the timetree includes extinct tips or tips sampled at older times (e.g., as is often the case in viral phylogenies). If tips are only sampled once at present-day, i.e. the timetree is ultrametric, reliable diffusivity estimates can only be achieved near present times.

For short expected transition distances this function uses the approximation formula by Ghosh et al. (2012) to calculate the probability density of geographical transitions along edges. For longer expected transition distances the function uses a truncated approximation of the series representation of SBM transition densities (Perrin 1928).

If edge.length is missing from one of the input trees, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations as well as monofurcations, however multifurcations are internally expanded into bifurcations by adding dummy nodes.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

times

Numeric vector of size 2, listing the two time points at which the diffusivity was estimated (time1 and time2).

diffusivities

Numeric vector of size 2, listing the fitted diffusivity at time1 and time2. The fitted model assumes that the diffusivity varied linearly between those two time points.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted linear model for the given data.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) model parameters. Will always be 2.

Ncontrasts

Integer, number of independent contrasts used for fitting.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of independent contrasts), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

trial_start_objectives

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the initial objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial, i.e. at the start parameter values.

trial_objective_values

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the final maximized objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial.

trial_Nstart_attempts

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of start attempts for each fitting trial, until a starting point with valid likelihood was found.

trial_Niterations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of iterations needed for each fitting trial.

trial_Nevaluations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of likelihood evaluations needed for each fitting trial.

standard_errors

Numeric vector of size 2, estimated standard error of the fitted diffusivity at the root and present, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Numeric vector of size 2, lower bound of the 50% confidence interval (25-75% percentile) for the fitted diffusivity at the root and present, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Numeric vector of size 2, upper bound of the 50% confidence interval for the fitted diffusivity at the root and present, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Numeric vector of size 2, lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (2.5-97.5% percentile) for the fitted diffusivity at the root and present, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Numeric vector of size 2, upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the fitted diffusivity at the root and present, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

consistency

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated consistency of the data with the fitted model. See the documentation of fit_sbm_const for an explanation. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

significance

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimate statistical significance of the fitted linear slope. Only returned if Nsignificance>0.

QQplot

Numeric matrix of size Ncontrasts x 2, listing the computed QQ-plot. The first column lists quantiles of geodistances in the original dataset, the 2nd column lists quantiles of hypothetical geodistances simulated based on the fitted model.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

F. Perrin (1928). Etude mathematique du mouvement Brownien de rotation. 45:1-51.

D. R. Brillinger (2012). A particle migrating randomly on a sphere. in Selected Works of David Brillinger. Springer.

A. Ghosh, J. Samuel, S. Sinha (2012). A Gaussian for diffusion on the sphere. Europhysics Letters. 98:30003.

S. Louca (2021). Phylogeographic estimation and simulation of global diffusive dispersal. Systematic Biology. 70:340-359.

See Also

simulate_sbm, fit_sbm_const, fit_sbm_parametric, fit_sbm_on_grid

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree, keeping extinct lineages
tree_params = list(birth_rate_factor=1, death_rate_factor=0.95)
tree = generate_random_tree(tree_params,max_tips=1000,coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# calculate max distance of any tip from the root
max_time = get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance

# simulate time-dependent SBM on the tree
# we assume that diffusivity varies linearly with time
# in this example we measure distances in Earth radii
radius = 1
diffusivity_functor = function(times, params){
    return(params[1] + (times/max_time)*(params[2]-params[1]))
}
true_params = c(1, 2)
time_grid   = seq(0,max_time,length.out=2)
simulation  = simulate_sbm(tree,
                    radius = radius, 
                    diffusivity = diffusivity_functor(time_grid,true_params), 
                    time_grid = time_grid)

# fit time-independent SBM to get a rough estimate
fit_const = fit_sbm_const(tree,simulation$tip_latitudes,simulation$tip_longitudes,radius=radius)

# fit SBM model with linearly varying diffusivity
fit = fit_sbm_linear(tree,
            simulation$tip_latitudes,
            simulation$tip_longitudes,
            radius = radius,
            Ntrials = 10)
    
# compare fitted & true params
print(true_params)
print(fit$diffusivities)

## End(Not run)

Fit a phylogeographic Spherical Brownian Motion model with piecewise-linear diffusivity.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and geographic coordinates (latitudes & longitudes) for its tips, this function estimates the diffusivity of a Spherical Brownian Motion (SBM) model with time-dependent diffusivity for the evolution of geographic location along lineages (Perrin 1928; Brillinger 2012). Estimation is done via maximum-likelihood and using independent contrasts between sister lineages. This function is designed to estimate the diffusivity over time, approximated as a piecewise linear profile, by fitting the diffusivity on a discrete set of time points. The user thus provides a set of time points (time_grid), and fit_sbm_on_grid estimates the diffusivity on each time point, while assuming that the diffusivity varies linearly between time points.

Usage

fit_sbm_on_grid(tree, 
              tip_latitudes,
              tip_longitudes,
              radius,
              clade_states          = NULL,
              planar_approximation  = FALSE,
              only_basal_tip_pairs  = FALSE,
              only_distant_tip_pairs= FALSE,
              min_MRCA_time         = 0,
              max_MRCA_age          = Inf,
              max_phylodistance     = Inf,
              no_state_transitions  = FALSE,
              only_state            = NULL,
              time_grid             = 0,
              guess_diffusivity     = NULL,
              min_diffusivity       = NULL,
              max_diffusivity       = Inf,
              Ntrials               = 1,
              Nthreads              = 1,
              Nbootstraps           = 0,
              Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
              NQQ                   = 0,
              fit_control           = list(),
              SBM_PD_functor        = NULL,
              verbose               = FALSE,
              verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

tip_latitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing latitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -90 to 90). The order of entries must correspond to the order of tips in the tree (i.e., as listed in tree$tip.label).

tip_longitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing longitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -180 to 180). The order of entries must correspond to the order of tips in the tree (i.e., as listed in tree$tip.label).

radius

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the radius of the sphere. For Earth, the mean radius is 6371 km.

clade_states

Optional integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing discrete states of every tip and node in the tree. The order of entries must match the order of tips and nodes in the tree. States may be, for example, geographic regions, sub-types, discrete traits etc, and can be used to restrict independent contrasts to tip pairs within the same state (see option no_state_transitions).

planar_approximation

Logical, specifying whether to estimate the diffusivity based on a planar approximation of the SBM model, i.e. by assuming that geographic distances between tips are as if tips are distributed on a 2D cartesian plane. This approximation is only accurate if geographical distances between tips are small compared to the sphere's radius.

only_basal_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare immediate sister tips, i.e., tips connected through a single parental node.

only_distant_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare tips at distinct geographic locations.

min_MRCA_time

Numeric, specifying the minimum allowed time (distance from root) of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at least this distance from the root. Set min_MRCA_time=0 to disable this filter.

max_MRCA_age

Numeric, specifying the maximum allowed age (distance from youngest tip) of the MRCA of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at most this age (time to present). Set max_MRCA_age=Inf to disable this filter.

max_phylodistance

Numeric, maximum allowed geodistance for an independent contrast to be included in the SBM fitting. Set max_phylodistance=Inf to disable this filter.

no_state_transitions

Logical, specifying whether to omit independent contrasts between tips whose shortest connecting paths include state transitions. If TRUE, only tips within the same state and with no transitions between them (as specified in clade_states) are compared.

only_state

Optional integer, specifying the state in which tip pairs (and their connecting ancestral nodes) must be in order to be considered. If specified, then clade_states must be provided.

time_grid

Numeric vector, specifying discrete time points (counted since the root) at which the diffusivity should be fitted; between these time points the diffusivity is assumed to vary linearly. This time grid should be fine enough to sufficiently capture the variation in the diffusivity over time, but must not be too big to avoid overfitting. If NULL or of size 1, then the diffusivity is assumed to be time-independent. Listed times must be strictly increasing, and should cover at least the full considered time interval (from 0 to the maximum distance of any tip from the root); otherwise, constant extrapolation is used to cover missing times. Note that time is measured in the same units as the tree's edge lengths.

guess_diffusivity

Optional numeric vector, specifying a first guess for the diffusivity. Either of size 1 (the same first guess for all time points), or of the same length as time_grid (different first guess for each time point, NA are replaced with an automatically chosen first guess). If NULL, the first guess is chosen automatically.

min_diffusivity

Optional numeric vector, specifying lower bounds for the fitted diffusivity. Either of size 1 (the same lower bound is assumed for all time points), or of the same length as time_grid (different lower bound for each time point, NA are replaced with an automatically chosen lower bound). If NULL, lower bounds are chosen automatically.

max_diffusivity

Optional numeric vector, specifying upper bounds for the fitted diffusivity. Either of size 1 (the same upper bound is assumed for all time points), or of the same length as time_grid (different upper bound for each time point, NA are replaced with infinity). If NULL, no upper bound is imposed.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of estimated model parameters. Set to 0 for no bootstrapping.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

NQQ

Integer, optional number of simulations to perform for creating QQ plots of the theoretically expected distribution of geodistances vs. the empirical distribution of geodistances (across independent contrasts). The resolution of the returned QQ plot will be equal to the number of independent contrasts used for fitting. If <=0, no QQ plots will be calculated.

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes, and should be kept at its default value NULL.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

This function is designed to estimate the diffusivity profile over time, approximated by a piecewise linear function. Fitting is done by maximizing the likelihood of observing the given tip coordinates under the SBM model. Internally, this function uses fit_sbm_parametric.

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_sbm_on_grid as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (min_diffusivity and max_diffusivity). It is important that the time_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the variation of the true diffusivity over time, since the likelihood is calculated under the assumption that the diffusivity varies linearly between grid points. However, depending on the size of the tree, the grid size must not be too large, since otherwise overfitting becomes very likely. The time_grid does not need to be uniform, i.e., you may want to use a finer grid in regions where there's more data (tips) available.

Note that estimation of diffusivity at older times is only possible if the timetree includes extinct tips or tips sampled at older times (e.g., as is often the case in viral phylogenies). If tips are only sampled once at present-day, i.e. the timetree is ultrametric, reliable diffusivity estimates can only be achieved near present times. If the tree is ultrametric, you should consider using fit_sbm_const instead.

If edge.length is missing from one of the input trees, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations as well as monofurcations, however multifurcations are internally expanded into bifurcations by adding dummy nodes.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

time_grid

Numeric vector, the time-grid on which the diffusivity was fitted.

diffusivity

Numeric vector of size Ngrid (length of time_grid), listing the fitted diffusivities at the various time-grid points.

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given data.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) model parameters.

Ncontrasts

Integer, number of independent contrasts used for fitting.

phylodistances

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing phylogenetic (patristic) distances of the independent contrasts.

geodistances

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing geographic (great circle) distances of the independent contrasts.

child_times1

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing the times (distance from root) of the first tip in each independent contrast.

child_times2

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing the times (distance from root) of the second tip in each independent contrast.

MRCA_times

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing the times (distance from root) of the MRCA of the two tips in each independent contrast.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of independent contrasts), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

trial_start_objectives

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the initial objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial, i.e. at the start parameter values.

trial_objective_values

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the final maximized objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial.

trial_Nstart_attempts

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of start attempts for each fitting trial, until a starting point with valid likelihood was found.

trial_Niterations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of iterations needed for each fitting trial.

trial_Nevaluations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of likelihood evaluations needed for each fitting trial.

standard_errors

Numeric vector of size NP, estimated standard error of the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

medians

Numeric vector of size NP, median the estimated parameters across parametric bootstraps. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Numeric vector of size NP, lower bound of the 50% confidence interval (25-75% percentile) for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Numeric vector of size NP, upper bound of the 50% confidence interval for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Numeric vector of size NP, lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (2.5-97.5% percentile) for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Numeric vector of size NP, upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

consistency

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated consistency of the data with the fitted model. See the documentation of fit_sbm_const for an explanation.

QQplot

Numeric matrix of size Ncontrasts x 2, listing the computed QQ-plot. The first column lists quantiles of geodistances in the original dataset, the 2nd column lists quantiles of hypothetical geodistances simulated based on the fitted model.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

F. Perrin (1928). Etude mathematique du mouvement Brownien de rotation. 45:1-51.

D. R. Brillinger (2012). A particle migrating randomly on a sphere. in Selected Works of David Brillinger. Springer.

A. Ghosh, J. Samuel, S. Sinha (2012). A Gaussian for diffusion on the sphere. Europhysics Letters. 98:30003.

S. Louca (2021). Phylogeographic estimation and simulation of global diffusive dispersal. Systematic Biology. 70:340-359.

See Also

simulate_sbm, fit_sbm_const, fit_sbm_parametric, fit_sbm_linear

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree, keeping extinct lineages
tree_params = list(birth_rate_factor=1, death_rate_factor=0.95)
tree = generate_random_tree(tree_params,max_tips=2000,coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# calculate max distance of any tip from the root
max_time = get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance

# simulate time-dependent SBM on the tree
# using a diffusivity that varies roughly exponentially with time
# In this example we measure distances in Earth radii
radius = 1
fine_time_grid = seq(from=0, to=max_time, length.out=10)
fine_D = 0.01 + 0.03*exp(-2*fine_time_grid/max_time)
simul = simulate_sbm(tree, 
                     radius     = radius, 
                     diffusivity= fine_D, 
                     time_grid  = fine_time_grid)

# fit time-dependent SBM on a time-grid of size 4
fit = fit_sbm_on_grid(tree,
            simul$tip_latitudes,
            simul$tip_longitudes,
            radius    = radius,
            time_grid = seq(from=0,to=max_time,length.out=4),
            Nthreads  = 3,  # use 3 CPUs
            Ntrials   = 30) # avoid local optima through multiple trials
    
# visually compare fitted & true params
plot(x      = fine_time_grid,
     y      = fine_D,
     type   = 'l',
     col    = 'black',
     xlab   = 'time',
     ylab   = 'D',
     ylim   = c(0,max(fine_D)))
lines(x     = fit$time_grid,
      y     = fit$diffusivity,
      type  = 'l',
      col   = 'blue')

## End(Not run)

Fit a time-dependent phylogeographic Spherical Brownian Motion model.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and geographic coordinates (latitudes & longitudes) for its tips, this function estimates the diffusivity of a Spherical Brownian Motion (SBM) model with time-dependent diffusivity for the evolution of geographic location along lineages (Perrin 1928; Brillinger 2012). Estimation is done via maximum-likelihood and using independent contrasts between sister lineages. This function is designed to estimate the diffusivity over time, by fitting a finite number of parameters defining the diffusivity as a function of time. The user thus provides the general functional form of the diffusivity that depends on time and NP parameters, and fit_sbm_parametric estimates each of the free parameters.

Usage

fit_sbm_parametric(tree, 
              tip_latitudes,
              tip_longitudes,
              radius,
              param_values,
              param_guess,
              diffusivity,
              time_grid             = NULL,
              clade_states          = NULL,
              planar_approximation  = FALSE,
              only_basal_tip_pairs  = FALSE,
              only_distant_tip_pairs= FALSE,
              min_MRCA_time         = 0,
              max_MRCA_age          = Inf,
              max_phylodistance     = Inf,
              no_state_transitions  = FALSE,
              only_state            = NULL,
              param_min             = -Inf,
              param_max             = +Inf,
              param_scale           = NULL,
              Ntrials               = 1,
              max_start_attempts    = 1,
              Nthreads              = 1,
              Nbootstraps           = 0,
              Ntrials_per_bootstrap = NULL,
              NQQ                   = 0,
              fit_control           = list(),
              SBM_PD_functor        = NULL,
              focal_param_values    = NULL,
              verbose               = FALSE,
              verbose_prefix        = "")

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

tip_latitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing latitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -90 to 90). The order of entries must correspond to the order of tips in the tree (i.e., as listed in tree$tip.label).

tip_longitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing longitudes of tips in decimal degrees (from -180 to 180). The order of entries must correspond to the order of tips in the tree (i.e., as listed in tree$tip.label).

radius

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the radius of the sphere. For Earth, the mean radius is 6371 km.

param_values

Numeric vector of length NP, specifying fixed values for a some or all model parameters. For fitted (i.e., non-fixed) parameters, use NaN or NA. For example, the vector c(1.5,NA,40) specifies that the 1st and 3rd model parameters are fixed at the values 1.5 and 40, respectively, while the 2nd parameter is to be fitted. The length of this vector defines the total number of model parameters. If entries in this vector are named, the names are taken as parameter names. Names should be included if you'd like returned parameter vectors to have named entries, or if the diffusivity function queries parameter values by name (as opposed to numeric index).

param_guess

Numeric vector of size NP, specifying a first guess for the value of each model parameter. For fixed parameters, guess values are ignored. Can be NULL only if all model parameters are fixed.

diffusivity

Function specifying the diffusivity at any given time (time since the root) and for any given parameter values. This function must take exactly two arguments, the 1st one being a numeric vector (one or more times) and the 2nd one being a numeric vector of size NP (parameter values), and return a numeric vector of the same size as the 1st argument.

time_grid

Numeric vector, specifying times (counted since the root) at which the diffusivity function should be evaluated. This time grid must be fine enough to capture the possible variation in the diffusivity over time, within the permissible parameter range. If of size 1, then the diffusivity is assumed to be time-independent. Listed times must be strictly increasing, and should cover at least the full considered time interval (from 0 to the maximum distance of any tip from the root); otherwise, constant extrapolation is used to cover missing times. Can also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case the diffusivity is assumed to be time-independent. Note that time is measured in the same units as the tree's edge lengths.

clade_states

Optional integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing discrete states of every tip and node in the tree. The order of entries must match the order of tips and nodes in the tree. States may be, for example, geographic regions, sub-types, discrete traits etc, and can be used to restrict independent contrasts to tip pairs within the same state (see option no_state_transitions).

planar_approximation

Logical, specifying whether to estimate the diffusivity based on a planar approximation of the SBM model, i.e. by assuming that geographic distances between tips are as if tips are distributed on a 2D cartesian plane. This approximation is only accurate if geographical distances between tips are small compared to the sphere's radius.

only_basal_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare immediate sister tips, i.e., tips connected through a single parental node.

only_distant_tip_pairs

Logical, specifying whether to only compare tips at distinct geographic locations.

min_MRCA_time

Numeric, specifying the minimum allowed time (distance from root) of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at least this distance from the root. Set min_MRCA_time=0 to disable this filter.

max_MRCA_age

Numeric, specifying the maximum allowed age (distance from youngest tip) of the MRCA of sister tips considered in the fitting. In other words, an independent contrast is only considered if the two sister tips' MRCA has at most this age (time to present). Set max_MRCA_age=Inf to disable this filter.

max_phylodistance

Numeric, maximum allowed geodistance for an independent contrast to be included in the SBM fitting. Set max_phylodistance=Inf to disable this filter.

no_state_transitions

Logical, specifying whether to omit independent contrasts between tips whose shortest connecting paths include state transitions. If TRUE, only tips within the same state and with no transitions between them (as specified in clade_states) are compared.

only_state

Optional integer, specifying the state in which tip pairs (and their connecting ancestral nodes) must be in order to be considered. If specified, then clade_states must be provided.

param_min

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying lower bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same lower bound is applied to all parameters. Use -Inf to omit a lower bound for a parameter. If NULL, no lower bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, lower bounds are ignored.

param_max

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying upper bounds for model parameters. If of size 1, the same upper bound is applied to all parameters. Use +Inf to omit an upper bound for a parameter. If NULL, no upper bounds are applied. For fixed parameters, upper bounds are ignored.

param_scale

Optional numeric vector of size NP, specifying typical scales for model parameters. If of size 1, the same scale is assumed for all parameters. If NULL, scales are determined automatically. For fixed parameters, scales are ignored. It is strongly advised to provide reasonable scales, as this facilitates the numeric optimization algorithm.

Ntrials

Integer, specifying the number of independent fitting trials to perform, each starting from a random choice of model parameters. Increasing Ntrials reduces the risk of reaching a non-global local maximum in the fitting objective.

max_start_attempts

Integer, specifying the number of times to attempt finding a valid start point (per trial) before giving up on that trial. Randomly choosen extreme start parameters may occasionally result in Inf/undefined likelihoods, so this option allows the algorithm to keep looking for valid starting points.

Nthreads

Integer, specifying the number of parallel threads to use for performing multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This should generally not exceed the number of available CPUs on your machine. Parallel computing is not available on the Windows platform.

Nbootstraps

Integer, specifying the number of parametric bootstraps to perform for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals of estimated model parameters. Set to 0 for no bootstrapping.

Ntrials_per_bootstrap

Integer, specifying the number of fitting trials to perform for each bootstrap sampling. If NULL, this is set equal to max(1,Ntrials). Decreasing Ntrials_per_bootstrap will reduce computation time, at the expense of potentially inflating the estimated confidence intervals; in some cases (e.g., for very large trees) this may be useful if fitting takes a long time and confidence intervals are very narrow anyway. Only relevant if Nbootstraps>0.

NQQ

Integer, optional number of simulations to perform for creating QQ plots of the theoretically expected distribution of geodistances vs. the empirical distribution of geodistances (across independent contrasts). The resolution of the returned QQ plot will be equal to the number of independent contrasts used for fitting. If <=0, no QQ plots will be calculated.

fit_control

Named list containing options for the nlminb optimization routine, such as iter.max, eval.max or rel.tol. For a complete list of options and default values see the documentation of nlminb in the stats package.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes, and should be kept at its default value NULL.

focal_param_values

Optional numeric matrix having NP columns and an arbitrary number of rows, listing combinations of parameter values of particular interest and for which the log-likelihoods should be returned. This may be used e.g. for diagnostic purposes, e.g. to examine the shape of the likelihood function.

verbose

Logical, specifying whether to print progress reports and warnings to the screen. Note that errors always cause a return of the function (see return values success and error).

verbose_prefix

Character, specifying the line prefix for printing progress reports to the screen.

Details

This function is designed to estimate a finite set of scalar parameters (p1,..,pnRp_1,..,p_n\in\R) that determine the diffusivity over time, by maximizing the likelihood of observing the given tip coordinates under the SBM model. For example, the investigator may assume that the diffusivity exponentially over time, i.e. can be described by D(t)=AeBtD(t)=A\cdot e^{-B t} (where AA and BB are unknown coefficients and tt is time since the root). In this case the model has 2 free parameters, p1=Ap_1=A and p2=Bp_2=B, each of which may be fitted to the tree.

It is generally advised to provide as much information to the function fit_sbm_parametric as possible, including reasonable lower and upper bounds (param_min and param_max), a reasonable parameter guess (param_guess) and reasonable parameter scales param_scale. If some model parameters can vary over multiple orders of magnitude, it is advised to transform them so that they vary across fewer orders of magnitude (e.g., via log-transformation). It is also important that the time_grid is sufficiently fine to capture the variation of the diffusivity over time, since the likelihood is calculated under the assumption that the diffusivity varies linearly between grid points.

Estimation of diffusivity at older times is only possible if the timetree includes extinct tips or tips sampled at older times (e.g., as is often the case in viral phylogenies). If tips are only sampled once at present-day, i.e. the timetree is ultrametric, reliable diffusivity estimates can only be achieved near present times. If the tree is ultrametric, you should consider using fit_sbm_const instead.

For short expected transition distances this function uses the approximation formula by Ghosh et al. (2012) to calculate the probability density of geographical transitions along edges. For longer expected transition distances the function uses a truncated approximation of the series representation of SBM transition densities (Perrin 1928).

If edge.length is missing from one of the input trees, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations as well as monofurcations, however multifurcations are internally expanded into bifurcations by adding dummy nodes.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

objective_value

The maximized fitting objective. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be the maximized log-likelihood.

objective_name

The name of the objective that was maximized during fitting. Currently, only maximum-likelihood estimation is implemented, and hence this will always be “loglikelihood”.

param_fitted

Numeric vector of size NP (number of model parameters), listing all fitted or fixed model parameters in their standard order (see details above).

loglikelihood

The log-likelihood of the fitted model for the given data.

NFP

Integer, number of fitted (i.e., non-fixed) model parameters.

Ncontrasts

Integer, number of independent contrasts used for fitting.

phylodistances

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing phylogenetic (patristic) distances of the independent contrasts.

geodistances

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing geographic (great circle) distances of the independent contrasts.

child_times1

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing the times (distance from root) of the first tip in each independent contrast.

child_times2

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing the times (distance from root) of the second tip in each independent contrast.

MRCA_times

Numeric vector of length Ncontrasts, listing the times (distance from root) of the MRCA of the two tips in each independent contrast.

AIC

The Akaike Information Criterion for the fitted model, defined as 2k2log(L)2k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters and LL is the maximized likelihood.

BIC

The Bayesian information criterion for the fitted model, defined as log(n)k2log(L)\log(n)k-2\log(L), where kk is the number of fitted parameters, nn is the number of data points (number of independent contrasts), and LL is the maximized likelihood.

converged

Logical, specifying whether the maximum likelihood was reached after convergence of the optimization algorithm. Note that in some cases the maximum likelihood may have been achieved by an optimization path that did not yet converge (in which case it's advisable to increase iter.max and/or eval.max).

Niterations

Integer, specifying the number of iterations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

Nevaluations

Integer, specifying the number of likelihood evaluations performed during the optimization path that yielded the maximum likelihood.

guess_loglikelihood

The loglikelihood of the data for the initial parameter guess (param_guess).

focal_loglikelihoods

A numeric vector of the same size as nrow(focal_param_values), listing loglikelihoods for each of the focal parameter conbinations listed in focal_loglikelihoods.

trial_start_objectives

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the initial objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial, i.e. at the start parameter values.

trial_objective_values

Numeric vector of size Ntrials, listing the final maximized objective values (e.g., loglikelihoods) for each fitting trial.

trial_Nstart_attempts

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of start attempts for each fitting trial, until a starting point with valid likelihood was found.

trial_Niterations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of iterations needed for each fitting trial.

trial_Nevaluations

Integer vector of size Ntrials, listing the number of likelihood evaluations needed for each fitting trial.

standard_errors

Numeric vector of size NP, estimated standard error of the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

medians

Numeric vector of size NP, median the estimated parameters across parametric bootstraps. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50lower

Numeric vector of size NP, lower bound of the 50% confidence interval (25-75% percentile) for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI50upper

Numeric vector of size NP, upper bound of the 50% confidence interval for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95lower

Numeric vector of size NP, lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (2.5-97.5% percentile) for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

CI95upper

Numeric vector of size NP, upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the parameters, based on parametric bootstrapping. Only returned if Nbootstraps>0.

consistency

Numeric between 0 and 1, estimated consistency of the data with the fitted model. See the documentation of fit_sbm_const for an explanation.

QQplot

Numeric matrix of size Ncontrasts x 2, listing the computed QQ-plot. The first column lists quantiles of geodistances in the original dataset, the 2nd column lists quantiles of hypothetical geodistances simulated based on the fitted model.

SBM_PD_functor

SBM probability density functor object. Used internally for efficiency and for debugging purposes.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

F. Perrin (1928). Etude mathematique du mouvement Brownien de rotation. 45:1-51.

D. R. Brillinger (2012). A particle migrating randomly on a sphere. in Selected Works of David Brillinger. Springer.

A. Ghosh, J. Samuel, S. Sinha (2012). A Gaussian for diffusion on the sphere. Europhysics Letters. 98:30003.

S. Louca (2021). Phylogeographic estimation and simulation of global diffusive dispersal. Systematic Biology. 70:340-359.

See Also

simulate_sbm, fit_sbm_const, fit_sbm_linear

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree, keeping extinct lineages
tree_params = list(birth_rate_factor=1, death_rate_factor=0.95)
tree = generate_random_tree(tree_params,max_tips=1000,coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# calculate max distance of any tip from the root
max_time = get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance

# simulate time-dependent SBM on the tree
# we assume that diffusivity varies linearly with time
# in this example we measure distances in Earth radii
radius = 1
diffusivity_functor = function(times, params){
	return(params[1] + (times/max_time)*(params[2]-params[1]))
}
true_params = c(1, 2)
time_grid   = seq(0,max_time,length.out=2)
simulation  = simulate_sbm(tree,
                      radius      = radius, 
                      diffusivity = diffusivity_functor(time_grid,true_params), 
                      time_grid   = time_grid)

# fit time-independent SBM to get a rough estimate
fit_const = fit_sbm_const(tree,simulation$tip_latitudes,simulation$tip_longitudes,radius=radius)

# fit time-dependent SBM, i.e. fit the 2 parameters of the linear form
fit = fit_sbm_parametric(tree,
            simulation$tip_latitudes,
            simulation$tip_longitudes,
            radius = radius,
            param_values = c(NA,NA),
            param_guess = c(fit_const$diffusivity,fit_const$diffusivity),
            diffusivity = diffusivity_functor,
            time_grid = time_grid,
            Ntrials = 10)
    
# compare fitted & true params
print(true_params)
print(fit$param_fitted)

## End(Not run)

Fit a cladogenic model to an existing tree.

Description

Fit the parameters of a tree generation model to an existing phylogenetic tree; branch lengths are assumed to be in time units. The fitted model is a stochastic cladogenic process in which speciations (births) and extinctions (deaths) are Poisson processes, as simulated by the function generate_random_tree. The birth and death rates of tips can each be constant or power-law functions of the number of extant tips. For example,

B=I+FNE,B = I + F\cdot N^E,

where BB is the birth rate, II is the intercept, FF is the power-law factor, NN is the current number of extant tips and EE is the power-law exponent. Each of the parameters I, F, E can be fixed or fitted.

Fitting can be performed via maximum-likelihood estimation, based on the waiting times between subsequent speciation and/or extinction events represented in the tree. Alternatively, fitting can be performed using least-squares estimation, based on the number of lineages represented in the tree over time ("diversity-vs-time" curve, a.k.a. "lineages-through-time"" curve). Note that the birth and death rates are NOT per-capita rates, they are absolute rates of species appearance and disappearance per time.

Usage

fit_tree_model( tree, 
                parameters          = list(),
                first_guess         = list(),
                min_age             = 0,
                max_age             = 0,
                age_centile         = NULL,
                Ntrials             = 1,
                Nthreads            = 1,
                coalescent          = FALSE,
                discovery_fraction  = NULL,
                fit_control         = list(),
                min_R2              = -Inf,
                min_wR2             = -Inf,
                grid_size           = 100,
                max_model_runtime   = NULL,
                objective           = 'LL')

Arguments

tree

A phylogenetic tree, in which branch lengths are assumed to be in time units. The tree may be a coalescent tree (i.e. only include extant clades) or a tree including extinct clades; the tree type influences what type of models can be fitted with each method.

parameters

A named list specifying fixed and/or unknown birth-death model parameters, with one or more of the following elements:

  • birth_rate_intercept: Non-negative number. The intercept of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. In units 1/time.

  • birth_rate_factor: Non-negative number. The power-law factor of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. In units 1/time.

  • birth_rate_exponent: Numeric. The power-law exponent of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. Unitless.

  • death_rate_intercept: Non-negative number. The intercept of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. In units 1/time.

  • death_rate_factor: Non-negative number. The power-law factor of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. In units 1/time.

  • death_rate_exponent: Numeric. The power-law exponent of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. Unitless.

  • resolution: Numeric. Resolution at which the tree was collapsed (i.e. every node of age smaller than this resolution replaced by a single tip). In units time. A resolution of 0 means the tree was not collapsed.

  • rarefaction: Numeric. Species sampling fraction, i.e. fraction of extant species represented (as tips) in the tree. A rarefaction of 1, for example, implies that the tree is complete, i.e. includes all extant species. Rarefaction is assumed to have occurred after collapsing.

  • extant_diversity: The current total extant diversity, regardless of the rarefaction and resolution of the tree at hand. For example, if resolution==0 and rarefaction==0.5 and the tree has 1000 tips, then extant_diversity should be 2000. If resolution is fixed at 0 and rarefaction is also fixed, this can be left NULL and will be inferred automatically by the function.

Each of the above elements can also be NULL, in which case the parameter is fitted. Elements can also be vectors of size 2 (specifying constraint intervals), in which case the parameters are fitted and constrained within the intervals specified. For example, to fit death_rate_factor while constraining it to the interval [1,2], set its value to c(1,2).

first_guess

A named list (with entries named as in parameters) specifying starting values for any of the fitted model parameters. Note that if Ntrials>1, then start values may be randomly modified in all but the first trial. For any parameters missing from first_guess, initial values are always randomly chosen. first_guess can also be NULL.

min_age

Numeric. Minimum distance from the tree crown, for a node/tip to be considered in the fitting. If <=0 or NULL, this constraint is ignored. Use this option to omit most recent nodes.

max_age

Numeric. Maximum distance from the tree crown, for a node/tip to be considered in the fitting. If <=0 or NULL, this constraint is ignored. Use this option to omit old nodes, e.g. with highly uncertain placements.

age_centile

Numeric within 0 and 1. Fraction of youngest nodes/tips to consider for the fitting. This can be used as an alternative to max_age. E.g. if set to 0.6, then the 60% youngest nodes/tips are considered. Either age_centile or max_age must be non-NULL, but not both.

Ntrials

Integer. Number of fitting attempts to perform, each time using randomly varied start values for fitted parameters. The returned fitted parameter values will be taken from the trial with greatest achieved fit objective. A larger number of trials will decrease the chance of hitting a local non-global optimum during fitting.

Nthreads

Number of threads to use for parallel execution of multiple fitting trials. On Windows, this option has no effect because Windows does not support forks.

coalescent

Logical, specifying whether the input tree is a coalescent tree (and thus the coalescent version of the model should be fitted). Only available if objective=='R2'.

discovery_fraction

Function handle, mapping age to the fraction of discovered lineages in a tree. That is, discovery_fraction(tau) is the probability that a lineage at age tau, that has an extant descendant today, will be represented (discovered) in the coalescent tree. In particular, discovery_fraction(0) equals the fraction of extant lineages represented in the tree. If this is provided, then parameters$rarefaction is fixed to 1, and discovery_fraction is applied after simulation. Only relevant if coalescent==TRUE. Experimental, so leave this NULL if you don't know what it means.

fit_control

Named list containing options for the stats::nlminb optimization routine, such as eval.max (max number of evaluations), iter.max (max number of iterations) and rel.tol (relative tolerance for convergence).

min_R2

Minimum coefficient of determination of the diversity curve (clade counts vs time) of the model when compared to the input tree, for a fitted model to be accepted. For example, if set to 0.5 then only fit trials achieving an R2 of at least 0.5 will be considered. Set this to -Inf to not filter fitted models based on the R2.

min_wR2

Similar to min_R2, but applying to the weighted R2, where squared-error weights are proportional to the inverse squared diversities.

grid_size

Integer. Number of equidistant time points to consider when calculating the R2 of a model's diversity-vs-time curve.

max_model_runtime

Numeric. Maximum runtime (in seconds) allowed for each model evaluation during fitting. Use this to escape from badly parameterized models during fitting (this will likely cause the affected fitting trial to fail). If NULL or <=0, this option is ignored.

objective

Character. Objective function to optimize during fitting. Can be either "LL" (log-likelihood of waiting times between speciation events and between extinction events), "R2" (coefficient of determination of diversity-vs-time curve), "wR2" (weighted R2, where weights of squared errors are proportional to the inverse diversities observed in the tree) or "lR2" (logarithmic R2, i.e. R2 calculated for the logarithm of the diversity-vs-time curve). Note that "wR2" will weight errors at lower diversities more strongly than "R2".

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the fitting was successful.

objective_value

Numeric. The achieved maximum value of the objective function (log-likelihood, R2 or weighted R2).

parameters

A named list listing all model parameters (fixed and fitted).

start_parameters

A named list listing the start values of all model parameters. In the case of multiple fitting trials, this will list the initial (non-randomized) guess.

R2

Numeric. The achieved coefficient of determination of the fitted model, based on the diversity-vs-time curve.

wR2

Numeric. The achieved weighted coefficient of determination of the fitted model, based on the diversity-vs-time curve. Weights of squared errors are proportional to the inverse squared diversities observed in the tree.

lR2

Numeric. The achieved coefficient of determination of the fitted model on a log axis, i.e. based on the logarithm of the diversity-vs-time curve.

Nspeciations

Integer. Number of speciation events (=nodes) considered during fitting. This only includes speciations visible in the tree.

Nextinctions

Integer. Number of extinction events (=non-crown tips) considered during fitting. This only includes extinctions visible in the tree, i.e. tips whose distance from the root is lower than the maximum.

grid_times

Numeric vector. Time points considered for the diversity-vs-time curve. Times will be constrained between min_age and max_age if these were specified.

tree_diversities

Number of lineages represented in the tree through time, calculated for each of grid_times.

model_diversities

Number of lineages through time as predicted by the model (in the deterministic limit), calculated for each of grid_times. If coalescent==TRUE then these are the number of lineages expected to be represented in the coalescent tree (this may be lower than the actual number of extant clades at any given time point, if the model includes extinctions).

fitted_parameter_names

Character vector, listing the names of fitted (i.e. non-fixed) parameters.

locally_fitted_parameters

Named list of numeric vectors, listing the fitted values for each parameter and for each fitting trial. For example, if birth_rate_factor was fitted, then locally_fitted_parameters$birth_rate_factor will be a numeric vector of size Ntrials (or less, if some trials failed or omitted), listing the locally-optimized values of the parameter for each considered fitting trial. Mainly useful for diagnostic purposes.

objective

Character. The name of the objective function used for fitting ("LL", "R2" or "wR2").

Ntips

The number of tips in the input tree.

Nnodes

The number of nodes in the input tree.

min_age

The minimum age of nodes/tips considered during fitting.

max_age

The maximum age of nodes/tips considered during fitting.

age_centile

Numeric or NULL, equal to the age_centile specified as input to the function.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

generate_random_tree, simulate_diversification_model reconstruct_past_diversification

Examples

# Generate a tree using a simple speciation model
parameters = list(birth_rate_intercept  = 1, 
                  birth_rate_factor     = 0,
                  birth_rate_exponent   = 0,
                  death_rate_intercept  = 0,
                  death_rate_factor     = 0,
                  death_rate_exponent   = 0,
                  resolution            = 0,
                  rarefaction           = 1)
tree = generate_random_tree(parameters, max_tips=100)

# Fit model to the tree
fitting_parameters = parameters
fitting_parameters$birth_rate_intercept = NULL # fit only this parameter
fitting = fit_tree_model(tree,fitting_parameters)

# compare fitted to true value
T = parameters$birth_rate_intercept
F = fitting$parameters$birth_rate_intercept
cat(sprintf("birth_rate_intercept: true=%g, fitted=%g\n",T,F))

Calculate the gamma-statistic of a tree.

Description

Given a rooted ultrametric phylogenetic tree, calculate the gamma-statistic (Pybus and Harevy, 2000).

Usage

gamma_statistic(tree)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The tree is assumed to be ultrametric; any deviations from ultrametricity are ignored.

Details

The tree may include multifurcations and monofurcations. If edge lengths are missing (i.e. edge.length=NULL), then each edge is assumed to have length 1.

This function is similar to the function gammaStat in the R package ape v5.3.

Value

Numeric, the gamma-statistic of the tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

O. G. Pybus and P. H. Harvey (2000). Testing macro-evolutionary models using incomplete molecular phylogenies. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences. 267:2267-2272.

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# calculate & print gamma statistic
gammastat = gamma_statistic(tree)
cat(sprintf("Tree has gamma-statistic %g\n",gammastat))

Generate a gene tree based on the multi-species coalescent model.

Description

Generate a random gene tree within a given species timetree, based on the multi-species coalescent (MSC) model. In this implementation of the MSC, every branch of the species tree has a specific effective population size (Ne) and a specific generation time (T), and gene alleles coalesce backward in time according to the Wright-Fisher model. This model does not account for gene duplication/loss, nor for hybridization or horizontal gene transfer. It is only meant to model "incomplete lineage sorting", otherwise known as "deep coalescence", which is one of the many mechanisms that can cause discordance between gene trees and species trees.

Usage

generate_gene_tree_msc( species_tree,
                        allele_counts              = 1, 
                        population_sizes           = 1,
                        generation_times           = 1,
                        mutation_rates             = 1,
                        gene_edge_unit             = "time",
                        Nsites                     = 1,
                        bottleneck_at_speciation   = FALSE,
                        force_coalescence_at_root  = FALSE,
                        ploidy                     = 1,
                        gene_tip_labels            = NULL)

Arguments

species_tree

Rooted timetree of class "phylo". The tree can include multifurcations and monofurcations. The tree need not necessarily be ultrametric, i.e. it may include extinct species. Edge lengths are assumed to be in time units.

allele_counts

Integer vector, listing the number of alleles sampled per species. Either NULL (1 allele per species), or a single integer (same number of alleles per species), or a vector of length Ntips listing the numbers of alleles sampled per species. In the latter case, the total number of tips in the returned gene tree will be equal to the sum of entries in allele_counts. Some entries in allele_counts may be zero (no alleles sampled from those species).

population_sizes

Integer vector, listing the effective population size on the edge leading into each tip/node in the species tree. Either NULL (all population sizes are 1), or a single integer (same population sizes for all edges), or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing population sizes for each clade's incoming edge (including the root). The population size for the root's incoming edge corresponds to the population size at the tree's stem (only relevant if force_coalescence_at_root=FALSE).

generation_times

Numeric vector, listing the generation time along the edge leading into each clade. Either NULL (all generation times are 1), or a single integer (same generation time for all edges) or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing generation times for each clade's incoming edge (including the root). The generation time for the root's incoming edge corresponds to the generation time at the tree's stem (only relevant if force_coalescence_at_root=FALSE).

mutation_rates

Numeric vector, listing the mutation rate (per site and per generation) along the edge leading into each clade. Either NULL (all mutation rates are 1), or a single integer (same mutation rate for all edges) or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing mutation rates for each clade's incoming edge (including the root). The mutation rate for the root's incoming edge corresponds to the mutation rate at the tree's stem (only relevant if force_coalescence_at_root=FALSE). The value of mutation_rates is only relevant if gene_edge_unit is "mutations_expected" or "mutations_random". Mutation rates represent probabilities, and so they must be between 0 and 1.

gene_edge_unit

Character, either "time", "generations", "mutations_expected" (expected mean number of mutations per site), or "mutations_random" (randomly generated mean number of mutations per site), specifying how edge lengths in the gene tree should be measured. By default, gene-tree edges are measured in time, as is the case for the input species tree.

Nsites

Integer, specifying the number of sites (nucleotides) in the gene. Only relevant when generating edge lengths in terms of random mutation counts, i.e. if gene_edge_unit=="mutations_random".

bottleneck_at_speciation

Logical. If TRUE, then all but one children at each node are assumed to have emerged from a single mutant individual, and thus all gene lineages within these bottlenecked species lineages must coalesce at a younger or equal age as the speciation event. Only the first child at each node is excluded from this assumption, corresponding to the "resident population" during the speciation event. This option deviates from the classical MSC model, and is experimental.

force_coalescence_at_root

Logical. If TRUE, all remaining orphan gene lineages that haven't coalesced before reaching the species-tree's root, will be combined at the root (via multiple adjacent bifurcations). If FALSE, coalescence events may extend beyond the species-tree's root into the stem lineage, as long as it takes until all gene lineages have coalesced.

ploidy

Integer, specifying the assumed genetic ploidy, i.e. number of gene copies per individual. Typically 1 for haploids, or 2 for diploids.

gene_tip_labels

Character vector specifying tip labels for the gene tree (i.e., for each of the sampled alleles) in the order of the corresponding species tips. Can also be NULL, in which case gene tips will be set to <species_tip_label>.<allele index>.

Details

This function assumes that Kingman's coalescent assumption is met, i.e. that the effective population size is much larger than the number of allele lineages coalescing within any given branch.

The function assumes that the species tree is a time tree, i.e. with edge lengths given in actual time units. To simulate gene trees in coalescence time units, choose population_sizes and generation_times accordingly (this only makes sense if the product of population_sizes ×\times generation_times is the same everywhere). If species_tree is ultrametric and gene_edge_unit=="time", then the gene tree will be ultrametric as well.

If gene_edge_unit is "mutations_random", then the number of generations elapsed along each time segment is translated into a randomly distributed number of accumulated mutations, according to a binomial distribution where the probability of success is equal to the mutation rate and the number of trials is equal to the number of generations multiplied by Nsites; this number of mutations is averaged across all sites, i.e. the edge lengths in the returned gene tree always refer to the mean number of mutations per site. In cases where the mutation rate varies across the species tree and a single gene edge spans multiple species edges, the gene edge length will be a sum of multiple binomially distributed mutation counts (again, divided by the number of sites), corresponding to the times spent in each species edge.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the gene tree was successfully generated. If FALSE, the only other value returned is error.

tree

The generated gene tree, of class "phylo". This tree will be rooted and bifurcating. It is only guaranteed to be ultrametric if species_tree was ultrametric.

gene_tip2species_tip

Integer vector of length NGtips (where NGtips is the number of tips in the gene tree), mapping gene-tree tips to species-tree tips.

gene_node2species_edge

Integer vector of length NGnodes (where NGnodes is the number of internal nodes in the gene tree), mapping gene-tree nodes (=coalescence events) to the species-tree edges where the coalescences took place.

gene_clade_times

Numeric vector of size NGtips+NGnodes, listing the time (total temporal distance from species root) of each tip and node in the gene tree. The units will be the same as the time units assumed for the species tree. Note that this may include negative values, if some gene lineages coalesce at a greater age than the root.

error

Character, containing an explanation of the error that occurred. Only included if success==FALSE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. H. Degnan, N. A. Rosenberg (2009). Gene tree discordance, phylogenetic inference and the multispecies coalescent. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 24:332-340.

B. Rannala, Z. Yang (2003). Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci. Genetics. 164:1645-1656.

See Also

generate_random_tree, generate_gene_tree_msc_hgt_dl

Examples

# Simulate a simple species tree
parameters   = list(birth_rate_factor=1)
Nspecies     = 10
species_tree = generate_random_tree(parameters,max_tips=Nspecies)$tree

# Simulate a haploid gene tree within the species tree
# Assume the same population size and generation time everywhere
# Assume the number of alleles samples per species is poisson-distributed
results = generate_gene_tree_msc(species_tree, 
                                 allele_counts      = rpois(Nspecies,3),
                                 population_sizes   = 1000,
                                 generation_times   = 1,
                                 ploidy             = 1);
if(!results$success){
    # simulation failed
    cat(sprintf("  ERROR: %s\n",results$error))
}else{
    # simulation succeeded
    gene_tree = results$tree
    cat(sprintf("  Gene tree has %d tips\n",length(gene_tree$tip.label)))
}

Generate gene trees based on the multi-species coalescent, horizontal gene transfers and duplications/losses.

Description

Generate a random gene tree within a given species timetree, based on an extension of the multi-species coalescent (MSC) model that includes horizontal gene transfers (HGT, incorporation of non-homologous genes as new loci), gene duplication and gene loss. The simulation consists of two phases. In the first phase a random "locus tree" is generated in forward time, according to random HGT, duplication and loss events. In the 2nd phase, alleles picked randomly from each locus are coalesced in backward time according to the multispecies coalescent, an extension of the Wright-Fisher model to multiple species. This function does not account for hybridization.

Usage

generate_gene_tree_msc_hgt_dl( species_tree,
                        allele_counts               = 1, 
                        population_sizes            = 1,
                        generation_times            = 1,
                        mutation_rates              = 1,
                        HGT_rates                   = 0,
                        duplication_rates           = 0,
                        loss_rates                  = 0,
                        gene_edge_unit              = "time",
                        Nsites                      = 1,
                        bottleneck_at_speciation    = FALSE,
                        force_coalescence_at_root   = FALSE,
                        ploidy                      = 1,
                        HGT_source_by_locus         = FALSE,
                        HGT_only_to_empty_clades    = FALSE,
                        no_loss_before_time         = 0,
                        max_runtime                 = NULL,
                        include_event_times         = TRUE)

Arguments

species_tree

Rooted timetree of class "phylo". The tree can include multifurcations and monofurcations. The tree need not necessarily be ultrametric, i.e. it may include extinct species. Edge lengths are assumed to be in time units.

allele_counts

Integer vector, listing the number of alleles sampled per species and per locus. This can be interpreted as the number if individual organisms surveyed from each species, assuming that all loci are included once from each individual. The number of tips in the generated gene tree will be equal to the sum of allele counts across all species. allele_counts can either be NULL (1 allele per species), or a single integer (same number of alleles per species), or a vector of length Ntips listing the numbers of alleles sampled per species. In the latter case, the total number of tips in the returned gene tree will be equal to the sum of entries in allele_counts. Some entries in allele_counts may be zero (no alleles sampled from those species).

population_sizes

Integer vector, listing the effective population size on the edge leading into each tip/node in the species tree. Either NULL (all population sizes are 1), or a single integer (same population sizes for all edges), or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing population sizes for each clade's incoming edge (including the root). The population size for the root's incoming edge corresponds to the population size at the tree's stem (only relevant if force_coalescence_at_root=FALSE).

generation_times

Numeric vector, listing the generation time along the edge leading into each clade. Either NULL (all generation times are 1), or a single integer (same generation time for all edges) or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing generation times for each clade's incoming edge (including the root). The generation time for the root's incoming edge corresponds to the generation time at the tree's stem (only relevant if force_coalescence_at_root=FALSE).

mutation_rates

Numeric vector, listing the probability of mutation per site and per generation along the edge leading into each clade. Either NULL (all mutation rates are 1), or a single integer (same mutation rate for all edges) or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing mutation rates for each clade's incoming edge (including the root). The mutation rate for the root's incoming edge corresponds to the mutation rate at the tree's stem (only relevant if force_coalescence_at_root=FALSE). The value of mutation_rates is only relevant if gene_edge_unit is "mutations_expected" or "mutations_random". Mutation rates represent probabilities, and so they must be between 0 and 1.

HGT_rates

Numeric vector, listing horizontal gene transfer rates per lineage per time, along the edge leading into each clade. Either NULL (all HGT rates are 0) or a single integer (same HGT rate for all edges) or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing HGT rates for each clade's incoming edge (including the root).

duplication_rates

Numeric vector, listing gene duplication rates per locus per lineage per time, along the edge leading into each clade. Either NULL (all duplication rates are 0) or a single integer (same duplication rate for all edges) or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes listing duplication rates for each clade's incoming edge (including the root).

loss_rates

Numeric vector, listing gene loss rates per locus per lineage per time, along the edge leading into each clade. Either NULL (all loss rates are 0) or a single integer (same loss rate for all edges) or a vector of length Ntips+Nnodes listing loss rates for each clade's incoming edge (including the root).

gene_edge_unit

Character, either "time", "generations", "mutations_expected" (expected mean number of mutations per site), or "mutations_random" (randomly generated mean number of mutations per site), specifying how edge lengths in the gene tree should be measured. By default, gene-tree edges are measured in time, as is the case for the input species tree.

Nsites

Integer, specifying the number of sites (nucleotides) in the gene. Only relevant when generating edge lengths in terms of random mutation counts, i.e. if gene_edge_unit=="mutations_random".

bottleneck_at_speciation

Logical. If TRUE, then all but one children at each node are assumed to have emerged from a single mutant individual, and thus all gene lineages within these bottlenecked species lineages must coalesce at a younger or equal age as the speciation event. Only the first child at each node is excluded from this assumption, corresponding to the "resident population" during the speciation event. This option deviates from the classical MSC model, and is experimental.

force_coalescence_at_root

Logical. If TRUE, all remaining orphan gene lineages that haven't coalesced before reaching the species-tree's root, will be combined at the root (via multiple adjacent bifurcations). If FALSE, coalescence events may extend beyond the species-tree's root into the stem lineage, as long as it takes until all gene lineages have coalesced.

ploidy

Integer, specifying the assumed genetic ploidy, i.e. number of gene copies per individual. Typically 1 for haploids, or 2 for diploids.

HGT_source_by_locus

Logical. If TRUE, then at any HGT event, every extant locus is chosen as source locus with the same probability (hence the probability of a lineage to be a source is proportional to the number of current loci in it). If FALSE, source lineages are chosen with the same probability (regardless of the number of current loci in them) and the source locus within the source lineage is chosen randomly.

HGT_only_to_empty_clades

Logical, specifying whether HGT transfers only occur into clades with no current loci.

no_loss_before_time

Numeric, optional time since the root during which no gene losses shall occur (even if loss_rate>0). This option can be used to reduce the probability of an early extinction of the entire gene tree, by giving the gene tree some "startup time" to spread into various species lineages. If zero, gene losses are possible right from the start of the simulation.

max_runtime

Numeric, optional maximum computation time (in seconds) to allow for the simulation. Use this to avoid occasional explosions of runtimes, for example due to very large generated trees. Aborted simulations will return with the flag success=FALSE (i.e., no tree is returned at all).

include_event_times

Logical, specifying whether the times of HGT, duplication and loss events should be returned as well. If these are not needed, then set include_event_times=FALSE for efficiency.

Details

This function assumes that the species tree is a time tree, i.e. with edge lengths given in actual time units. If species_tree is ultrametric and gene_edge_unit=="time", then the gene tree (but not necessarily the locus tree) will be ultrametric as well. The root of the locus and gene tree coincides with the root of the species tree.

The meaning of gene_edge_unit is the same as for the function generate_gene_tree_msc.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the gene tree was successfully generated. If FALSE, the only other value returned is error.

locus_tree

The generated locus timetree, of class "phylo". The locus tree describes the genealogy of loci due to HGT, duplication and loss events. Each tip and node of the locus tree is embedded within a specific species edge. For example, tips of the locus tree either coincide with tips of the species tree (if the locus persisted until the species went extinct or until the present) or they correspond to gene loss events. In the absence of any HGT, duplication and loss events, the locus tree will resemble the species tree.

locus_type

Character vector of length NLtips + NLnodes (where NLtips and NLnodes are the number of tips and nodes in the locus tree, respectively), specifying the type/origin of each tip and node in the locus tree. For nodes, type 'h' corresponds to an HGT event, type 'd' to a duplication event, and type 's' to a speciation event. For tips, type 'l' represents a loss event, and type 't' a terminal locus (i.e., coinciding with a species tip). For example, if the input species tree was an ultrametric tree representing only extant species, then the locus tree tips of type 't' are the loci that could potentially be sampled from those extant species.

locus2clade

Integer vector of length NLtips + NLnodes, with values in NStips+NSnodes, specifying for every locus tip or node the correspondng "host" species tip or node.

HGT_times

Numeric vector, listing HGT event times (counted since the root) in ascending order. Only included if include_event_times==TRUE.

HGT_source_clades

Integer vector of the same length as HGT_times and with values in 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes, listing the "source" species tip/node of each HGT event (in order of occurrence). The source tip/node is the tip/node from whose incoming edge a locus originated at the time of the transfer. Only included if include_event_times==TRUE.

HGT_target_clades

Integer vector of the same length as HGT_times and with values in 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes, listing the "target" species tip/node of each HGT event (in order of occurrence). The target (aka. recipient) tip/node is the tip/node within whose incoming edge a locus was created by the transfer. Only included if include_event_times==TRUE.

duplication_times

Numeric vector, listing gene duplication event times (counted since the root) in ascending order. Only included if include_event_times==TRUE.

duplication_clades

Integer vector of the same length as duplication_times and with values in 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes, listing the species tip/node in whose incoming edge each duplication event occurred (in order of occurrence). Only included if include_event_times==TRUE.

loss_times

Numeric vector, listing gene loss event times (counted since the root) in ascending order. Only included if include_event_times==TRUE.

loss_clades

Integer vector of the same length as loss_times and with values in 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes, listing the species tip/node in whose incoming edge each loss event occurred (in order of occurrence). Only included if include_event_times==TRUE.

gene_tree

The generated gene tree, of type "phylo".

gene_tip2species_tip

Integer vector of length NGtips (where NGtips is the number of tips in the gene tree) with values in 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes, mapping gene-tree tips to species-tree tips.

gene_tip2locus_tip

Integer vector of length NGtips with values in 1,..,NLtips, mapping gene-tree tips to locus-tree tips.

gene_node2locus_edge

Integer vector of length NGnodes with values in 1,..,NLedges, mapping gene-tree nodes to locus-tree edges.

gene_clade_times

Numeric vector of size NGtips+NGnodes, listing the time (temporal distance from species root) of each tip and node in the gene tree. The units will be the same as the time units of the species tree. Note that this may include negative values, if some gene lineages coalesce at a greater age than the root.

error

Character, containing an explanation of the error that occurred. Only included if success==FALSE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. H. Degnan, N. A. Rosenberg (2009). Gene tree discordance, phylogenetic inference and the multispecies coalescent. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 24:332-340.

B. Rannala, Z. Yang (2003). Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci. Genetics. 164:1645-1656.

See Also

generate_random_tree, generate_gene_tree_msc

Examples

# Simulate a simple species tree
parameters   = list(birth_rate_factor=1)
Nspecies     = 10
species_tree = generate_random_tree(parameters,max_tips=Nspecies)$tree

# Simulate a haploid gene tree within the species tree, including HGTs and gene loss
# Assume the same population size and generation time everywhere
# Assume the number of alleles samples per species is poisson-distributed
results = generate_gene_tree_msc_hgt_dl(species_tree, 
                                        allele_counts      = rpois(Nspecies,3),
                                        population_sizes   = 1000,
                                        generation_times   = 1,
                                        ploidy             = 1,
                                        HGT_rates          = 0.1,
                                        loss_rates         = 0.05);
if(!results$success){
    # simulation failed
    cat(sprintf("  ERROR: %s\n",results$error))
}else{
    # simulation succeeded
    gene_tree = results$gene_tree
    cat(sprintf("  Gene tree has %d tips\n",length(gene_tree$tip.label)))
}

Generate a tree using a Poissonian speciation/extinction model.

Description

Generate a random timetree via simulation of a Poissonian speciation/extinction (birth/death) process. New species are added (born) by splitting of a randomly chosen extant tip. The tree-wide birth and death rates of tips can each be constant or power-law functions of the number of extant tips. For example,

B=I+FNE,B = I + F\cdot N^E,

where BB is the tree-wide birth rate (species generation rate), II is the intercept, FF is the power-law factor, NN is the current number of extant tips and EE is the power-law exponent. Optionally, the per-capita (tip-specific) birth and death rates can be extended by adding a custom time series provided by the user.

Usage

generate_random_tree(parameters           = list(),
                     max_tips             = NULL, 
                     max_extant_tips      = NULL,
                     max_time             = NULL,
                     max_time_eq          = NULL,
                     coalescent           = TRUE,
                     as_generations       = FALSE,
                     no_full_extinction   = TRUE,
                     Nsplits              = 2,
                     added_rates_times    = NULL,
                     added_birth_rates_pc = NULL,
                     added_death_rates_pc = NULL,
                     added_periodic       = FALSE,
                     tip_basename         = "", 
                     node_basename        = NULL,
                     edge_basename        = NULL,
                     include_birth_times  = FALSE,
                     include_death_times  = FALSE)

Arguments

parameters

A named list specifying the birth-death model parameters, with one or more of the following entries:

birth_rate_intercept: Non-negative number. The intercept of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. In units 1/time. By default this is 0.

birth_rate_factor: Non-negative number. The power-law factor of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. In units 1/time. By default this is 0.

birth_rate_exponent: Numeric. The power-law exponent of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. Unitless. By default this is 1.

death_rate_intercept: Non-negative number. The intercept of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. In units 1/time. By default this is 0.

death_rate_factor: Non-negative number. The power-law factor of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. In units 1/time. By default this is 0.

death_rate_exponent: Numeric. The power-law exponent of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. Unitless. By default this is 1.

resolution: Non-negative numeric, specifying the resolution (in time units) at which to collapse the final tree by combining closely related tips. Any node whose age is smaller than this threshold, will be represented by a single tip. Set resolution=0 to not collapse tips (default).

rarefaction: Numeric between 0 and 1. Rarefaction to be applied to the final tree (fraction of random tips kept in the tree). Note that if coalescent==FALSE, rarefaction may remove both extant as well as extinct clades. Set rarefaction=1 to not perform any rarefaction (default).

max_tips

Integer, maximum number of tips of the tree to be generated. If coalescent=TRUE, this refers to the number of extant tips. Otherwise, it refers to the number of extinct + extant tips. If NULL or <=0, this halting condition is ignored.

max_extant_tips

Integer, maximum number of extant lineages allowed at any moment during the simulation. If this number is reached, the simulation is halted. If NULL or <=0, this halting condition is ignored.

max_time

Numeric, maximum duration of the simulation. If NULL or <=0, this constraint is ignored.

max_time_eq

Maximum duration of the simulation, counting from the first point at which speciation/extinction equilibrium is reached, i.e. when (birth rate - death rate) changed sign for the first time. If NULL or <0, this constraint is ignored.

coalescent

Logical, specifying whether only the coalescent tree (i.e. the tree spanning the extant tips) should be returned. If coalescent==FALSE and the death rate is non-zero, then the tree may include non-extant tips (i.e. tips whose distance from the root is less than the total time of evolution). In that case, the tree will not be ultrametric.

as_generations

Logical, specifying whether edge lengths should correspond to generations. If FALSE, then edge lengths correspond to time.

no_full_extinction

Logical, specifying whether to prevent complete extinction of the tree. Full extinction is prevented by temporarily disabling extinctions whenever the number of extant tips is 1. Note that, strictly speaking, the trees generated do not exactly follow the proper probability distribution when no_full_extinction is TRUE.

Nsplits

Integer greater than 1. Number of child-tips to generate at each diversification event. If set to 2, the generated tree will be bifurcating. If >2, the tree will be multifurcating.

added_rates_times

Numeric vector, listing time points (in ascending order) for the custom per-capita birth and/or death rates time series (see added_birth_rates_pc and added_death_rates_pc below). Can also be NULL, in which case the custom time series are ignored.

added_birth_rates_pc

Numeric vector of the same size as added_rates_times, listing per-capita birth rates to be added to the power law part. Can also be NULL, in which case this option is ignored and birth rates are purely described by the power law.

added_death_rates_pc

Numeric vector of the same size as added_rates_times, listing per-capita death rates to be added to the power law part. Can also be NULL, in which case this option is ignored and death rates are purely described by the power law.

added_periodic

Logical, indicating whether added_birth_rates_pc and added_death_rates_pc should be extended periodically if needed (i.e. if not defined for the entire simulation time). If FALSE, added birth & death rates are extended with zeros.

tip_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for tip labels (e.g. "tip."). If empty (""), then tip labels will be integers "1", "2" and so on.

node_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for node labels (e.g. "node."). If NULL, no node labels will be included in the tree.

edge_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for edge labels (e.g. "edge."). Edge labels (if included) are stored in the character vector edge.label. If NULL, no edge labels will be included in the tree.

include_birth_times

Logical. If TRUE, then the times of speciation events (in order of occurrence) will also be returned.

include_death_times

Logical. If TRUE, then the times of extinction events (in order of occurrence) will also be returned.

Details

If max_time==NULL, then the returned tree will always contain max_tips tips. In particular, if at any moment during the simulation the tree only includes a single extant tip, the death rate is temporarily set to zero to prevent the complete extinction of the tree. If max_tips==NULL, then the simulation is ran as long as specified by max_time. If neither max_time nor max_tips is NULL, then the simulation halts as soon as the time exceeds max_time or the number of tips (extant tips if coalescent is TRUE) exceeds max_tips. If max_tips!=NULL and Nsplits>2, then the last diversification even may generate fewer than Nsplits children, in order to keep the total number of tips within the specified limit.

If rarefaction<1 and resolution>0, collapsing of closely related tips (at the resolution specified) takes place prior to rarefaction (i.e., subsampling applies to the already collapsed tips).

Both the per-capita birth and death rates can be made into completely arbitrary functions of time, by setting all power-law coefficients to zero and providing custom time series added_birth_rates_pc and added_death_rates_pc.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the tree was successfully generated. If FALSE, the only other value returned is error.

tree

A rooted bifurcating (if Nsplits==2) or multifurcating (if Nsplits>2) tree of class "phylo", generated according to the specified birth/death model. If coalescent==TRUE or if all death rates are zero, and only if as_generations==FALSE, then the tree will be ultrametric. If as_generations==TRUE and coalescent==FALSE, all edges will have unit length.

root_time

Numeric, giving the time at which the tree's root was first split during the simulation. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, this may be later than the first speciation event during the simulation.

final_time

Numeric, giving the final time at the end of the simulation. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then this may be greater than the total time span of the tree (since the root of the coalescent tree need not correspond to the first speciation event).

root_age

Numeric, giving the age (time before present) at the tree's root. This is equal to final_time-root_time.

equilibrium_time

Numeric, giving the first time where the sign of (death rate - birth rate) changed from the beginning of the simulation, i.e. when speciation/extinction equilibrium was reached. May be infinite if the simulation stoped before reaching this point.

extant_tips

Integer vector, listing indices of extant tips in the tree. If coalescent==TRUE, all tips will be extant.

Nbirths

Total number of birth events (speciations) that occurred during tree growth. This may be lower than the total number of tips in the tree if death rates were non-zero and coalescent==TRUE, or if Nsplits>2.

Ndeaths

Total number of deaths (extinctions) that occurred during tree growth.

Ncollapsed

Number of tips removed from the tree while collapsing at the resolution specified.

Nrarefied

Number of tips removed from the tree due to rarefaction.

birth_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of speciation events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then speciation_times may be greater than the phylogenetic distance to the coalescent root.

death_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of extinction events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then speciation_times may be greater than the phylogenetic distance to the coalescent root.

error

Character, containing an explanation of ther error that occurred. Only included if success==FALSE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

D. J. Aldous (2001). Stochastic models and descriptive statistics for phylogenetic trees, from Yule to today. Statistical Science. 16:23-34.

M. Steel and A. McKenzie (2001). Properties of phylogenetic trees generated by Yule-type speciation models. Mathematical Biosciences. 170:91-112.

Examples

# Simple speciation model
parameters = list(birth_rate_intercept=1)
tree = generate_random_tree(parameters,max_tips=100)$tree

# Exponential growth rate model
parameters = list(birth_rate_factor=1)
tree = generate_random_tree(parameters,max_tips=100)$tree

Generate a tree from a birth-death model in reverse time.

Description

Generate an ultrametric timetree (comprising only extant lineages) in reverse time (from present back to the root) based on the homogenous birth-death (HBD; Morlon et al., 2011) model, conditional on a specific number of extant species sampled and (optionally) conditional on the crown age or stem age.

The probability distribution of such trees only depends on the congruence class of birth-death models (e.g., as specified by the pulled speciation rate) but not on the precise model within a congruence class (Louca and Pennell, 2019). Hence, in addition to allowing specification of speciation and extinction rates, this function can alternatively simulate trees simply based on some pulled speciation rate (PSR), or based on some pulled diversification rate (PDR) and the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o (present-day sampling fraction times present-day speciation rate).

This function can be used to generate bootstrap samples after fitting an HBD model or HBD congruence class to a real timetree.

Usage

generate_tree_hbd_reverse( Ntips,
                           stem_age         = NULL,
                           crown_age        = NULL,
                           age_grid         = NULL,
                           lambda           = NULL,
                           mu               = NULL,
                           rho              = NULL,
                           PSR              = NULL,
                           PDR              = NULL,
                           rholambda0       = NULL,
                           force_max_age    = Inf,
                           splines_degree   = 1,
                           relative_dt      = 1e-3,
                           Ntrees           = 1,
                           tip_basename     = "",
                           node_basename    = NULL,
                           edge_basename    = NULL)

Arguments

Ntips

Number of tips in the tree, i.e. number of extant species sampled at present day.

stem_age

Numeric, optional stem age on which to condition the tree. If NULL or <=0, the tree is not conditioned on the stem age.

crown_age

Numeric, optional crown age (aka. root age or MRCA age) on which to condition the tree. If NULL or <=0, the tree is not conditioned on the crown age. If both stem_age and crown_age are specified, only the crown age is used; in that case for consistency crown_age must not be greater than stem_age.

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing discrete ages (time before present) on which the PSR is specified. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and should cover at least the present day (age 0) as well as a sufficient duration into the past. If conditioning on the stem or crown age, that age must also be covered by age_grid. When not conditioning on crown nor stem age, and the generated tree ends up extending beyond the last time point in age_grid, the PSR will be extrapolated as a constant (with value equal to the last value in PSR) as necessary. age_grid also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case the PSR is assumed to be time-independent.

lambda

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing speciation rates (λ\lambda, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. Speciation rates must be non-negative, and are assumed to vary as a spline between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be NULL, in which case either PSR, or PDR and rholambda0, must be provided.

mu

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing extinction rates (μ\mu, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. Extinction rates must be non-negative, and are assumed to vary as a spline between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be NULL, in which case either PSR, or PDR and rholambda0, must be provided.

rho

Numeric, sampling fraction at present day (fraction of extant species included in the tree). Can also be NULL, in which case either PSR, or PDR and rholambda0, must be provided.

PSR

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing pulled speciation rates (λp\lambda_p, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. The PSR must be non-negative (and strictly positive almost everywhere), and is assumed to vary as a spline between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be NULL, in which case either lambda and mu and rho, or PDR and rholambda0, must be provided.

PDR

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing pulled diversification rates (rpr_p, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. The PDR is assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be NULL, in which case either lambda and mu and rho, or PSR, must be provided.

rholambda0

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o (present-day species sampling fraction times present-day speciation rate). Can also be NULL, in which case PSR must be provided.

force_max_age

Numeric, specifying an optional maximum allowed age for the tree's root. If the tree ends up expanding past that age, all remaining lineages are forced to coalesce at that age. This is not statistically consistent with the provided HBD model (in fact it corresponds to a modified HBD model with a spike in the PSR at that time). This argument merely provides a way to prevent excessively large trees if the PSR is close to zero at older ages and when not conditioning on the stem nor crown age, while still keeping the original statistical properties at younger ages. To disable this feature set force_max_age to Inf.

splines_degree

Integer, either 0,1,2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the provided rates PSR, PDR, lambda, mu and rho between grid points in age_grid. For example, if splines_degree==1, then the provided rates are interpreted as piecewise-linear curves; if splines_degree==2 the rates are interpreted as quadratic splines; if splines_degree==3 the rates are interpreted as cubic splines. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on. If your age_grid is fine enough, then splines_degree=1 is usually sufficient.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Ntrees

Integer, number of trees to generate. The computation time per tree is lower if you generate multiple trees at once.

tip_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for tip labels (e.g. "tip."). If empty (""), then tip labels will be integers "1", "2" and so on.

node_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for node labels (e.g. "node."). If NULL, no node labels will be included in the tree.

edge_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for edge labels (e.g. "edge."). Edge labels (if included) are stored in the character vector edge.label. If NULL, no edge labels will be included in the tree.

Details

This function requires that the BD model, or the BD congruence class (Louca and Pennell, 2019), is specified using one of the following sets of arguments:

  • Using the speciation rate λ\lambda, the extinctin rate μ\mu, and the present-day sampling fraction ρ\rho.

  • Using the pulled diversification rate (PDR) and the product ρλ(0)\rho\lambda(0). The PDR is defined as rp=λμ+1λdλdτr_p=\lambda-\mu+\frac{1}{\lambda}\frac{d\lambda}{d\tau}, where τ\tau is age (time before present), λ(τ)\lambda(\tau) is the speciation rate at age τ\tau and μ(τ)\mu(\tau) is the extinction rate.

  • Using the pulled speciation rate (PSR). The PSR (λp\lambda_p) is defined as λp(τ)=λ(τ)Φ(τ)\lambda_p(\tau) = \lambda(\tau)\cdot\Phi(\tau), where and Φ(τ)\Phi(\tau) is the probability that a lineage extant at age τ\tau will survive until the present and be represented in the tree.

Concurrently using/combining more than one the above parameterization methods is not supported.

Either the PSR, or the PDR and rholambda0, provide sufficient information to fully describe the probability distribution of the tree (Louca and Pennell, 2019). For example, the probability distribution of generated trees only depends on the PSR, and not on the specific speciation rate λ\lambda or extinction rate μ\mu (various combinations of λ\lambda and μ\mu can yield the same PSR; Louca and Pennell, 2019). To calculate the PSR and PDR for any arbitrary λ\lambda, μ\mu and ρ\rho you can use the function simulate_deterministic_hbd.

When not conditioning on the crown age, the age of the root of the generated tree will be stochastic (i.e., non-fixed). This function then assumes a uniform prior distribution (in a sufficiently large time interval) for the origin of the forward HBD process that would have generated the tree, based on a generalization of the EBDP algorithm provided by (Stadler, 2011). When conditioning on stem or crown age, this function is based on the algorithm proposed by Hoehna (2013, Eq. 8).

Note that HBD trees can also be generated using the function generate_random_tree. That function, however, generates trees in forward time, and hence when conditioning on the final number of tips the total duration of the simulation is unpredictable; consequently, speciation and extinction rates cannot be specified as functions of "age" (time before present). The function presented here provides a means to generate trees with a fixed number of tips, while specifying λ\lambda, μ\mu, λp\lambda_p or rpr_p as functions of age (time before present).

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the simulation was successful. If FALSE, then the returned list includes an additional 'error' element (character) providing a description of the error; all other return variables may be undefined.

trees

A list of length Ntrees, listing the generated trees. Each tree will be an ultrametric timetree of class "phylo".

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

H. Morlon, T. L. Parsons, J. B. Plotkin (2011). Reconciling molecular phylogenies with the fossil record. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108:16327-16332.

T. Stadler (2011). Simulating trees with a fixed number of extant species. Systematic Biology. 60:676-684.

S. Hoehna (2013). Fast simulation of reconstructed phylogenies under global time-dependent birth-death processes. Bioinformatics. 29:1367-1374.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (in review as of 2019). Phylogenies of extant species are consistent with an infinite array of diversification histories.

See Also

loglikelihood_hbd, simulate_deterministic_hbd, generate_random_tree

Examples

# EXAMPLE 1: Generate trees based on some speciation and extinction rate
# In this example we assume an exponentially decreasing speciation rate
#   and a temporary mass extinction event

# define parameters
age_grid = seq(0,100,length.out=1000)
lambda   = 0.1 + exp(-0.5*age_grid)
mu       = 0.05 + exp(-(age_grid-5)^2)
rho      = 0.5 # species sampling fraction at present-day

# generate a tree with 100 tips and no specific crown or stem age
sim = generate_tree_hbd_reverse(Ntips       = 100, 
                                age_grid    = age_grid, 
                                lambda      = lambda,
                                mu          = mu,
                                rho         = rho)
if(!sim$success){
    cat(sprintf("Tree generation failed: %s\n",sim$error))
}else{
    cat(sprintf("Tree generation succeeded\n"))
    tree = sim$trees[[1]]
}


########################
# EXAMPLE 2: Generate trees based on the pulled speciation rate
# Here we condition the tree on some fixed crown (MRCA) age

# specify the PSR on a sufficiently fine and wide age grid
age_grid  = seq(0,1000,length.out=10000)
PSR       = 0.1+exp(-0.1*age_grid) # exponentially decreasing PSR

# generate a tree with 100 tips and MRCA age 10
sim = generate_tree_hbd_reverse(Ntips       = 100, 
                                age_grid    = age_grid, 
                                PSR         = PSR, 
                                crown_age   = 10)
if(!sim$success){
    cat(sprintf("Tree generation failed: %s\n",sim$error))
}else{
    cat(sprintf("Tree generation succeeded\n"))
    tree = sim$trees[[1]]
}

Generate a tree from a birth-death-sampling model in forward time.

Description

Generate a random timetree according to a homogenous birth-death-sampling model with arbitrary time-varying speciation/extinction/sampling rates. Lineages split (speciate) or die (go extinct) at Poissonian rates and independently of each other. Lineages are sampled continuously (i.e., at Poissonian rates) in time and/or during concentrated sampling attempts (i.e., at specific time points). Sampled lineages are assumed to continue in the pool of extant lineages at some given "retention probability". The final tree can be restricted to sampled lineages only, but may optionally include extant (non-sampled) as well as extinct lineages. Speciation, extinction and sampling rates as well as retention probabilities may depend on time. This function may be used to simulate trees commonly encountered in viral epidemiology, where sampled patients are assumed to exit the pool of infectious individuals.

Usage

generate_tree_hbds( max_sampled_tips             = NULL, 
                    max_sampled_nodes            = NULL, 
                    max_extant_tips              = NULL,
                    max_extinct_tips             = NULL,
                    max_tips                     = NULL,
                    max_time                     = NULL,
                    include_extant               = FALSE,
                    include_extinct              = FALSE,
                    as_generations               = FALSE,
                    time_grid                    = NULL,
                    lambda                       = NULL,
                    mu                           = NULL,
                    psi                          = NULL,
                    kappa                        = NULL,
                    splines_degree               = 1,
                    CSA_times                    = NULL,
                    CSA_probs                    = NULL,
                    CSA_kappas                   = NULL,
                    no_full_extinction           = FALSE,
                    max_runtime                  = NULL,
                    tip_basename                 = "",
                    node_basename                = NULL,
                    edge_basename                = NULL,
                    include_birth_times          = FALSE,
                    include_death_times          = FALSE)

Arguments

max_sampled_tips

Integer, maximum number of sampled tips. The simulation is halted once this number is reached. If NULL or <=0, this halting criterion is ignored.

max_sampled_nodes

Integer, maximum number of sampled nodes, i.e., of lineages that were sampled but kept in the pool of extant lineages. The simulation is halted once this number is reached. If NULL or <=0, this halting criterion is ignored.

max_extant_tips

Integer, maximum number of extant tips. The simulation is halted once the number of concurrently extant tips reaches this threshold. If NULL or <=0, this halting criterion is ignored.

max_extinct_tips

Integer, maximum number of extant tips. The simulation is halted once this number is reached. If NULL or <=0, this halting criterion is ignored.

max_tips

Integer, maximum number of tips (extant+extinct+sampled). The simulation is halted once this number is reached. If NULL or <=0, this halting criterion is ignored.

max_time

Numeric, maximum duration of the simulation. If NULL or <=0, this halting criterion is ignored.

include_extant

Logical, specifying whether to include extant tips (i.e., neither extinct nor sampled) in the final tree.

include_extinct

Logical, specifying whether to include extant tips (i.e., neither extant nor sampled) in the final tree.

as_generations

Logical, specifying whether edge lengths should correspond to generations. If FALSE, then edge lengths correspond to time. If TRUE, then the time between two subsequent events (speciation, extinction, sampling) is counted as "one generation".

time_grid

Numeric vector, specifying time points (in ascending order) on which the rates lambda, mu and psi are provided. Rates are interpolated polynomially between time grid points as needed (according to splines_degree). The time grid should generally cover the maximum possible simulation time, otherwise it will be polynomially extrapolated as needed.

lambda

Numeric vector, of the same size as time_grid (or size 1 if time_grid==NULL), listing per-lineage speciation (birth) rates (λ\lambda, in units 1/time) at the times listed in time_grid. Speciation rates must be non-negative, and are assumed to vary as a spline between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single numeric, in which case λ\lambda is assumed to be constant over time.

mu

Numeric vector, of the same size as time_grid (or size 1 if time_grid==NULL), listing per-lineage extinction (death) rates (μ\mu, in units 1/time) at the times listed in time_grid. Extinction rates must be non-negative, and are assumed to vary as a spline between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single numeric, in which case μ\mu is assumed to be constant over time. If omitted, the extinction rate is assumed to be zero.

psi

Numeric vector, of the same size as time_grid (or size 1 if time_grid==NULL), listing per-lineage sampling rates (ψ\psi, in units 1/time) at the times listed in time_grid. Sampling rates must be non-negative, and are assumed to vary as a spline between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single numeric, in which case ψ\psi is assumed to be constant over time. If omitted, the continuous sampling rate is assumed to be zero.

kappa

Numeric vector, of the same size as time_grid (or size 1 if time_grid==NULL), listing retention probabilities (κ\kappa, unitless) of continuously (Poissonian) sampled lineages at the times listed in time_grid. Retention probabilities must be true probabilities (i.e., between 0 and 1), and are assumed to vary as a spline between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Can also be a single numeric, in which case κ\kappa is assumed to be constant over time. If omitted, the retention probability is assumed to be zero (a common assumption in epidemiology).

splines_degree

Integer, either 0,1,2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the provided lambda, mu and psi between grid points in age_grid. For example, if splines_degree==1, then the provided lambda, mu and psi are interpreted as piecewise-linear curves; if splines_degree==2 the lambda, mu and psi are interpreted as quadratic splines; if splines_degree==3 the lambda, mu and psi is interpreted as cubic splines. If your age_grid is fine enough, then splines_degree=1 is usually sufficient.

CSA_times

Optional numeric vector, listing times of concentrated sampling attempts, in ascending order. Concentrated sampling is performed in addition to any continuous (Poissonian) sampling specified by psi.

CSA_probs

Optional numeric vector of the same size as CSA_times, listing sampling probabilities at each concentrated sampling time. Note that in contrast to the sampling rates psi, the CSA_probs are interpreted as probabilities and must thus be between 0 and 1. CSA_probs must be provided if and only if CSA_times is provided.

CSA_kappas

Optional numeric vector of the same size as CSA_times, listing sampling retention probabilities at each concentrated sampling time, i.e. the probability at which a sampled lineage is kept in the pool of extant lineages. Note that the CSA_kappas are probabilities and must thus be between 0 and 1. CSA_kappas must be provided if and only if CSA_times is provided.

no_full_extinction

Logical, specifying whether to prevent complete extinction of the tree. Full extinction is prevented by temporarily disabling extinctions whenever the number of extant tips is 1. Note that, strictly speaking, the trees generated do not exactly follow the proper probability distribution when no_full_extinction is TRUE.

max_runtime

Numeric, optional maximum computation time (in seconds) to allow for the simulation. Use this to avoid occasional explosions of runtimes, for example due to very large generated trees. Aborted simulations will return with the flag success=FALSE (i.e., no tree is returned at all).

tip_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for tip labels (e.g. "tip."). If empty (""), then tip labels will be integers "1", "2" and so on.

node_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for node labels (e.g. "node."). If NULL, no node labels will be included in the tree.

edge_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for edge labels (e.g. "edge."). Edge labels (if included) are stored in the character vector edge.label. If NULL, no edge labels will be included in the tree.

include_birth_times

Logical. If TRUE, then the times of speciation events (in order of occurrence) will also be returned.

include_death_times

Logical. If TRUE, then the times of extinction events (in order of occurrence) will also be returned.

Details

The simulation proceeds in forward time, starting with a single root. Speciation/extinction and continuous (Poissonian) sampling events are drawn at exponentially distributed time steps, according to the rates specified by lambda, mu and psi. Sampling also occurs at the optional CSA_times. Only extant lineages are sampled at any time point, and sampled lineages are removed from the pool of extant lineages at probability 1-kappa.

The simulation halts as soon as one of the halting criteria are met, as specified by the options max_sampled_tips, max_sampled_nodes, max_extant_tips, max_extinct_tips, max_tips and max_time, or if no extant tips remain, whichever occurs first. Note that in some scenarios (e.g., if extinction rates are very high) the simulation may halt too early and the generated tree may only contain a single tip (i.e., the root lineage); in that case, the simulation will return an error (see return value success).

The function returns a single generated tree, as well as supporting information such as which tips are extant, extinct or sampled.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the simulation was successful. If FALSE, then the returned list includes an additional 'error' element (character) providing a description of the error; all other return variables may be undefined.

tree

The generated timetree, of class "phylo". Note that this tree need not be ultrametric, for example if sampling occurs at multiple time points.

root_time

Numeric, giving the time at which the tree's root was first split during the simulation. Note that this may be greater than 0, i.e., if the tips of the final tree do not coalesce all the way back to the simulation's start.

final_time

Numeric, giving the final time at the end of the simulation.

root_age

Numeric, giving the age (time before present) at the tree's root. This is equal to final_time-root_time.

Nbirths

Integer, the total number of speciation (birth) events that occured during the simulation.

Ndeaths

Integer, the total number of extinction (death) events that occured during the simulation.

Nsamplings

Integer, the total number of sampling events that occured during the simulation.

Nretentions

Integer, the total number of sampling events that occured during the simulation and for which lineages were kept in the pool of extant lineages.

sampled_clades

Integer vector, specifying indices (from 1 to Ntips+Nnodes) of sampled tips and nodes in the final tree (regardless of whether their lineages were subsequently retained or removed from the pool).

retained_clades

Integer vector, specifying indices (from 1 to Ntips+Nnodes) of sampled tips and nodes in the final tree that were retained, i.e., not removed from the pool following sampling.

extant_tips

Integer vector, specifying indices (from 1 to Ntips) of extant (non-sampled and non-extinct) tips in the final tree. Will be empty if include_extant==FALSE.

extinct_tips

Integer vector, specifying indices (from 1 to Ntips) of extinct (non-sampled and non-extant) tips in the final tree. Will be empty if include_extinct==FALSE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

T. Stadler (2010). Sampling-through-time in birth–death trees. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 267:396-404.

T. Stadler et al. (2013). Birth–death skyline plot reveals temporal changes of epidemic spread in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). PNAS. 110:228-233.

See Also

generate_tree_hbd_reverse, generate_gene_tree_msc, generate_random_tree, fit_hbds_model_parametric, simulate_deterministic_hbds

Examples

# define time grid on which lambda, mu and psi will be specified
time_grid = seq(0,100,length.out=1000)

# specify the time-dependent extinction rate mu on the time-grid
mu_grid = 0.5*time_grid/(10+time_grid)

# define additional concentrated sampling attempts
CSA_times  = c(5,7,9)
CSA_probs  = c(0.5, 0.5, 0.5)
CSA_kappas = c(0.2, 0.1, 0.1)

# generate tree with a constant speciation & sampling rate,
# time-variable extinction rate and additional discrete sampling points
# assuming that all continuously sampled lineages are removed from the pool
simul = generate_tree_hbds( max_time        = 10,
                            include_extant  = FALSE,
                            include_extinct = FALSE,
                            time_grid       = time_grid,
                            lambda          = 1,
                            mu              = mu_grid,
                            psi             = 0.1,
                            kappa           = 0,
                            CSA_times       = CSA_times,
                            CSA_probs       = CSA_probs,
                            CSA_kappas      = CSA_kappas);
if(!simul$success){
    cat(sprintf("ERROR: Could not simulate tree: %s\n",simul$error))
}else{
    # simulation succeeded. print some basic info about the generated tree
    tree = simul$tree
    cat(sprintf("Generated tree has %d tips\n",length(tree$tip.label)))
}

Generate a random tree with evolving speciation/extinction rates.

Description

Generate a random phylogenetic tree via simulation of a Poissonian speciation/extinction (birth/death) process. New species are added (born) by splitting of a randomly chosen extant tip. Per-capita birth and death rates (aka. speciation and extinction rates) evolve under some stochastic process (e.g. Brownian motion) along each edge. Thus, the probability rate of a tip splitting or going extinct depends on the tip, with closely related tips having more similar per-capita birth and death rates.

Usage

generate_tree_with_evolving_rates(parameters           = list(),
                                  rate_model           = 'BM',
                                  max_tips             = NULL, 
                                  max_time             = NULL,
                                  max_time_eq          = NULL,
                                  coalescent           = TRUE,
                                  as_generations       = FALSE,
                                  tip_basename         = "", 
                                  node_basename        = NULL,
                                  include_event_times  = FALSE,
                                  include_rates        = FALSE)

Arguments

parameters

A named list specifying the model parameters for the evolving birth/death rates. The precise entries expected depend on the chosen rate_model (see details below).

rate_model

Character, specifying the model for the evolving per-capita birth/death rates. Must be one of the following: 'BM' (Brownian motion constrained to a finite interval via reflection), 'Mk' (discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain with fixed transition rates).

max_tips

Maximum number of tips of the tree to be generated. If coalescent=TRUE, this refers to the number of extant tips. Otherwise, it refers to the number of extinct + extant tips. If NULL or <=0, the number of tips is unlimited (so be careful).

max_time

Maximum duration of the simulation. If NULL or <=0, this constraint is ignored.

max_time_eq

Maximum duration of the simulation, counting from the first point at which speciation/extinction equilibrium is reached, i.e. when (birth rate - death rate) changed sign for the first time. If NULL or <0, this constraint is ignored.

coalescent

Logical, specifying whether only the coalescent tree (i.e. the tree spanning the extant tips) should be returned. If coalescent==FALSE and the death rate is non-zero, then the tree may include non-extant tips (i.e. tips whose distance from the root is less than the total time of evolution). In that case, the tree will not be ultrametric.

as_generations

Logical, specifying whether edge lengths should correspond to generations. If FALSE, then edge lengths correspond to time.

tip_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for tip labels (e.g. "tip."). If empty (""), then tip labels will be integers "1", "2" and so on.

node_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for node labels (e.g. "node."). If NULL, no node labels will be included in the tree.

include_event_times

Logical. If TRUE, then the times of speciation and extinction events (each in order of occurrence) will also be returned.

include_rates

Logical. If TRUE, then the bper-capita birth & death rates of all tips and nodes will also be returned.

Details

If max_time==NULL, then the returned tree will always contain max_tips tips. In particular, if at any moment during the simulation the tree only includes a single extant tip, the death rate is temporarily set to zero to prevent the complete extinction of the tree. If max_tips==NULL, then the simulation is ran as long as specified by max_time. If neither max_time nor max_tips is NULL, then the simulation halts as soon as the time exceeds max_time or the number of tips (extant tips if coalescent is TRUE) exceeds max_tips.

If rate_model=='BM', then per-capita birth rates (speciation rates) and per-capita death rates (extinction rates) evolve according to Brownian Motion, constrained to a finite interval via reflection. Note that speciation and extinction rates are only updated at branching points, i.e. during speciation events, while waiting times until speciation/extinction are based on rates at the previous branching point. The argument parameters should be a named list including one or more of the following elements:

  • birth_rate_diffusivity: Non-negative number. Diffusivity constant for the Brownian motion model of the evolving per-capita birth rate. In units 1/time^3. See simulate_bm_model for an explanation of the diffusivity parameter.

  • min_birth_rate_pc: Non-negative number. The minimum allowed per-capita birth rate of a clade. In units 1/time. By default this is 0.

  • max_birth_rate_pc: Non-negative number. The maximum allowed per-capita birth rate of a clade. In units 1/time. By default this is 1.

  • death_rate_diffusivity: Non-negative number. Diffusivity constant for the Brownian motion model of the evolving per-capita death rate. In units 1/time^3. See simulate_bm_model for an explanation of the diffusivity parameter.

  • min_death_rate_pc: Non-negative number. The minimum allowed per-capita death rate of a clade. In units 1/time. By default this is 0.

  • max_death_rate_pc: Non-negative number. The maximum allowed per-capita death rate of a clade. In units 1/time. By default this is 1.

  • root_birth_rate_pc: Non-negative number, between min_birth_rate_pc and max_birth_rate_pc, specifying the initial per-capita birth rate of the root. If left unspecified, this will be chosen randomly and uniformly within the allowed interval.

  • root_death_rate_pc: Non-negative number, between min_death_rate_pc and max_death_rate_pc, specifying the initial per-capita death rate of the root. If left unspecified, this will be chosen randomly and uniformly within the allowed interval.

  • rarefaction: Numeric between 0 and 1. Rarefaction to be applied at the end of the simulation (fraction of random tips kept in the tree). Note that if coalescent==FALSE, rarefaction may remove both extant as well as extinct clades. Set rarefaction=1 to not perform any rarefaction.

If rate_model=='Mk', then speciation/extinction rates are determined by a tip's current "state", which evolves according to a continuous-time discrete-state Markov chain (Mk model) with constant transition rates. The argument parameters should be a named list including one or more of the following elements:

  • Nstates: Number of possible discrete states a tip can have. For example, if Nstates then this corresponds to the common Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) model (Maddison et al., 2007). By default this is 1.

  • state_birth_rates: Numeric vector of size Nstates, listing the per-capita birth rate (speciation rate) at each state. Can also be a single number (all states have the same birth rate).

  • state_death_rates: Numeric vector of size Nstates, listing the per-capita death rate (extinction rate) at each state. Can also be a single number (all states have the same death rate).

  • transition_matrix: 2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates. Transition rate matrix for the Markov chain model of birth/death rate evolution.

  • start_state: Integer within 1,..,Nstates, specifying the initial state of the first created lineage. If left unspecified, this is chosen randomly and uniformly among all possible states.

  • rarefaction: Same as when rate_model=='BM'.

Note: The option rate_model=='Mk' is deprecated and included for backward compatibility purposes only. To generate a tree with Markov transitions between states (known as Multiple State Speciation and Extinction model), use the command simulate_dsse instead.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the simulation was successful. If FALSE, an additional element error (of type character) is included containing an explanation of the error; in that case the value of any of the other elements is undetermined.

tree

A rooted bifurcating tree of class "phylo", generated according to the specified birth/death model.

If coalescent==TRUE or if all death rates are zero, and only if as_generations==FALSE, then the tree will be ultrametric. If as_generations==TRUE and coalescent==FALSE, all edges will have unit length.

root_time

Numeric, giving the time at which the tree's root was first split during the simulation. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, this may be later than the first speciation event during the simulation.

final_time

Numeric, giving the final time at the end of the simulation. If coalescent==TRUE, then this may be greater than the total time span of the tree (since the root of the coalescent tree need not correspond to the first speciation event).

equilibrium_time

Numeric, giving the first time where the sign of (death rate - birth rate) changed from the beginning of the simulation, i.e. when speciation/extinction equilibrium was reached. May be infinite if the simulation stoped before reaching this point.

Nbirths

Total number of birth events (speciations) that occurred during tree growth. This may be lower than the total number of tips in the tree if death rates were non-zero and coalescent==TRUE.

Ndeaths

Total number of deaths (extinctions) that occurred during tree growth.

birth_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of speciation events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then speciation_times may be greater than the phylogenetic distance to the coalescent root. Only returned if include_event_times==TRUE.

death_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of extinction events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then speciation_times may be greater than the phylogenetic distance to the coalescent root. Only returned if include_event_times==TRUE.

birth_rates_pc

Numeric vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing the per-capita birth rate of each tip and node in the tree. The length of an edge in the tree was thus drawn from an exponential distribution with rate equal to the per-capita birth rate of the child tip or node.

death_rates_pc

Numeric vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing the per-capita death rate of each tip and node in the tree.

states

Integer vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, listing the discrete state of each tip and node in the tree. Only included if rate_model=="Mk".

start_state

Integer, specifying the initial state of the first created lineage (either provided during the function call, or generated randomly). Only included if rate_model=="Mk".

root_birth_rate_pc

Numeric, specifying the initial per-capita birth rate of the root (either provided during the function call, or generated randomly). Only included if rate_model=="BM".

root_death_rate_pc

Numeric, specifying the initial per-capita death rate of the root (either provided during the function call, or generated randomly). Only included if rate_model=="BM".

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

D. J. Aldous (2001). Stochastic models and descriptive statistics for phylogenetic trees, from Yule to today. Statistical Science. 16:23-34.

W. P. Maddison, P. E. Midford, S. P. Otto (2007). Estimating a binary character's effect on speciation and extinction. Systematic Biology. 56:701-710.

See Also

simulate_dsse

Examples

# Example 1
# Generate tree, with rates evolving under Brownian motion
parameters = list(birth_rate_diffusivity  = 1,
                  min_birth_rate_pc       = 1,
                  max_birth_rate_pc       = 2,
                  death_rate_diffusivity  = 0.5,
                  min_death_rate_pc       = 0,
                  max_death_rate_pc       = 1)
simulation = generate_tree_with_evolving_rates(parameters,
                                               rate_model='BM',
                                               max_tips=1000,
                                               include_rates=TRUE)
tree  = simulation$tree
Ntips = length(tree$tip.label)

# plot per-capita birth & death rates of tips
plot( x=simulation$birth_rates_pc[1:Ntips], 
      y=simulation$death_rates_pc[1:Ntips], 
      type='p', 
      xlab="pc birth rate", 
      ylab="pc death rate", 
      main="Per-capita birth & death rates across tips (BM model)",
      las=1)

      
######################
# Example 2
# Generate tree, with rates evolving under a binary-state model
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates=2, rate_model="ER", max_rate=0.1)
parameters = list(Nstates = 2,
                  state_birth_rates = c(1,1.5),
                  state_death_rates = 0.5,
                  transition_matrix = Q)
simulation = generate_tree_with_evolving_rates(parameters,
                                               rate_model='Mk',
                                               max_tips=1000,
                                               include_rates=TRUE)
tree  = simulation$tree
Ntips = length(tree$tip.label)

# plot distribution of per-capita birth rates of tips
rates = simulation$birth_rates_pc[1:Ntips]
barplot(table(rates)/length(rates), 
        xlab="rate", 
        main="Distribution of pc birth rates across tips (Mk model)")

Phylogenetic autocorrelation function of geographic locations.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and geographic coordinates (latitudes & longitudes) of each tip, calculate the phylogenetic autocorrelation function (ACF) of the geographic locations. The ACF is a function of phylogenetic distance x, i.e., ACF(x) is the autocorrelation between two tip locations conditioned on the tips having phylogenetic ("patristic") distance x.

Usage

geographic_acf( trees,
                tip_latitudes,
                tip_longitudes,
                Npairs              = 10000,
                Nbins               = NULL,
                min_phylodistance   = 0,
                max_phylodistance   = NULL,
                uniform_grid        = FALSE,
                phylodistance_grid  = NULL)

Arguments

trees

Either a single rooted tree of class "phylo", or a list of multiple such trees.

tip_latitudes

Either a numeric vector of size Ntips (if trees was a single tree), specifying the latitudes (decimal degrees) of the tree's tips, or a list of such numeric vectors (if trees contained multiple trees) specifying the latitudes of each tree's tips. Note that tip_latitudes[k][i] must correspond to the i-th tip in the k-th input tree, i.e. as listed in trees[[k]]$tip.label. By convention, positive latitudes correspond to the northern hemisphere.

tip_longitudes

Similar to tip_latitudes, but listing the latitudes (decimal degrees) of each tip in each input tree. By convention, positive longitudes correspond to the hemisphere East of the prime meridian.

Npairs

Maximum number of random tip pairs to draw from each tree. A greater number of tip pairs will improve the accuracy of the estimated ACF within each distance bin. Tip pairs are drawn randomly with replacement, if Npairs is lower than the number of tip pairs in a tree. If Npairs=Inf, then every tip pair of every tree is included exactly once (for small and moderately sized trees this is recommended).

Nbins

Number of phylogenetic distance bins to consider. A greater number of bins will increase the resolution of the ACF as a function of phylogenetic distance, but will decrease the number of tip pairs falling within each bin (which reduces the accuracy of the estimated ACF). If NULL, then Nbins is automatically and somewhat reasonably chosen based on the size of the input trees.

min_phylodistance

Numeric, minimum phylogenetic distance to conssider. Only relevant if phylodistance_grid is NULL.

max_phylodistance

Numeric, optional maximum phylogenetic distance to consider. If NULL, this is automatically set to the maximum phylodistance between any two tips.

uniform_grid

Logical, specifying whether the phylodistance grid should be uniform, i.e., with equally sized phylodistance bins. If FALSE, then the grid is chosen non-uniformly (i.e., each bin has different size) such that each bin roughly contains the same number of tip pairs. Only relevant if phylodistance_grid is NULL. It is generally recommended to keep uniform_grid=FALSE, to avoid uneven estimation errors across bins.

phylodistance_grid

Numeric vector, optional explicitly specified phylodistance bins (left boundaries thereof) on which to evaluate the ACF. Must contain non-negative numbers in strictly ascending order. Hence, the first bin will range from phylodistance_grid[1] to phylodistance_grid[2], while the last bin will range from tail(phylodistance_grid,1) to max_phylodistance. Can be used as an alternative to Nbins. If non-NULL, then Nbins, min_phylodistance and uniform_grid are irrelevant.

Details

The autocorrelation between random geographic locations is defined as the expectation of <X,Y><X,Y>, where <> is the scalar product and XX and YY are the unit vectors pointing towards the two random locations on the sphere. For comparison, for a spherical Brownian Motion model with constant diffusivity DD and radius rr the autocorrelation function is given by ACF(t)=e2Dt/r2ACF(t)=e^{-2Dt/r^2} (see e.g. simulate_sbm). Note that this function assumes that Earth is a perfect sphere.

The phylogenetic autocorrelation function (ACF) of the geographic distribution of species can give insight into the dispersal processes shaping species distributions over global scales. An ACF that decays slowly with increasing phylogenetic distance indicates a strong phylogenetic conservatism of the location and thus slow dispersal, whereas a rapidly decaying ACF indicates weak phylogenetic conservatism and thus fast dispersal. Similarly, if the mean distance between two random tips increases with phylogenetic distance, this indicates a phylogenetic autocorrelation of species locations. Here, phylogenetic distance between tips refers to their patristic distance, i.e. the minimum cumulative edge length required to connect the two tips.

Since the phylogenetic distances between all possible tip pairs do not cover a continuoum (as there is only a finite number of tips), this function randomly draws tip pairs from the tree, maps them onto a finite set of phylodistance bins and then estimates the ACF for the centroid of each bin based on tip pairs in that bin. In practice, as a next step one would usually plot the estimated ACF (returned vector autocorrelations) over the centroids of the phylodistance bins (returned vector phylodistances). When multiple trees are provided as input, then the ACF is first calculated separately for each tree, and then averaged across trees (weighted by the number of tip pairs included from each tree in each bin).

Phylogenetic distance bins can be specified in two alternative ways: Either a set of bins (phylodistance grid) is automatically calculated based on the provided Nbins, min_phylodistance, max_phylodistance and uniform_grid, or a phylodistance grid is explicitly provided via phylodistance_grid and max_phylodistance.

The trees may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If edge lengths are missing from the trees, then every edge is assumed to have length 1. The input trees must be rooted at some node for technical reasons (see function root_at_node), but the choice of the root node does not influence the result.

This function assumes that each tip is assigned exactly one geographic location. This might be problematic in situations where each tip covers multiple geographic locations, for example if tips are species and multiple individuals were sampled from each species. In that case, one might consider representing each individual as a separate tip in the tree, so that each tip has exactly one geographic location.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the calculation was successful. If FALSE, an additional element error (character) is returned that provides a brief description of the error that occurred; in that case all other return values may be undefined.

phylodistances

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the center of each phylodistance bin in increasing order. This is equal to 0.5*(left_phylodistances+right_phylodistances). Typically, you will want to plot autocorrelations over phylodistances.

left_phylodistances

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the left boundary of each phylodistance bin in increasing order.

right_phylodistances

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the right boundary of each phylodistance bin in increasing order.

autocorrelations

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the estimated geographic autocorrelation for each phylodistance bin.

std_autocorrelations

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the standard deviation of geographic autocorrelations encountered in each phylodistance bin. Note that this is not the standard error of the estimated ACF; it is a measure for how different the geographic locations are between tip pairs within each phylodistance bin.

mean_geodistances

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the mean geographic distance between tip pairs in each distance bin, in units of sphere radii. If you want geographic distances in km, you need to multiply these by Earth's mean radius in km (about 6371). If multiple input trees were provided, this is the average across all trees, weighted by the number of tip pairs included from each tree in each bin.

std_geodistances

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the standard deviation of geographic distances between tip pairs in each distance bin, in units of sphere radii.

Npairs_per_distance

Integer vector of size Nbins, storing the number of random tip pairs associated with each distance bin.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

correlate_phylo_geodistances, consentrait_depth, get_trait_acf

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=1000)$tree

# simulate spherical Brownian Motion on the tree
simul = simulate_sbm(tree, radius=1, diffusivity=0.1)
tip_latitudes  = simul$tip_latitudes
tip_longitudes = simul$tip_longitudes

# calculate geographical autocorrelation function
ACF = geographic_acf(tree, 
                     tip_latitudes, 
                     tip_longitudes,
                     Nbins        = 10,
                     uniform_grid = TRUE)

# plot ACF (autocorrelation vs phylogenetic distance)
plot(ACF$phylodistances, ACF$autocorrelations, type="l", xlab="distance", ylab="ACF")

Get distances of all tips and nodes to the root.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, calculate the phylogenetic distance (cumulative branch length) of the root to each tip and node.

Usage

get_all_distances_to_root(tree, as_edge_count=FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

as_edge_count

Logical, specifying whether distances should be counted in number of edges, rather than cumulative edge length. This is the same as if all edges had length 1.

Details

If tree$edge.length is missing, then every edge in the tree is assumed to be of length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The asymptotic average time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A numeric vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, with the i-th element being the distance (cumulative branch length) of the i-th tip or node to the root. Tips are indexed 1,..,Ntips and nodes are indexed (Ntips+1),..,(Ntips+Nnodes).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_pairwise_distances

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1, 
                            	 death_rate_intercept=0.5),
                            max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# calculate distances to root
all_distances = get_all_distances_to_root(tree)

# extract distances of nodes to root
node_distances = all_distances[(Ntips+1):(Ntips+tree$Nnode)]

# plot histogram of distances (across all nodes)
hist(node_distances, xlab="distance to root", ylab="# nodes", prob=FALSE);

Get distances of all tips/nodes to a focal tip.

Description

Given a tree and a focal tip, calculate the phylogenetic ("patristic") distances between the focal tip and all other tips & nodes in the tree.

Usage

get_all_distances_to_tip(tree, focal_tip)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

focal_tip

Either a character, specifying the name of the focal tip, or an integer between 1 and Ntips, specifying the focal tip's index.

Details

The "patristic distance" between two tips and/or nodes is the shortest cumulative branch length that must be traversed along the tree in order to reach one tip/node from the other. If tree$edge.length is missing, then each edge is assumed to be of length 1.

The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The input tree must be rooted at some node for technical reasons (see function root_at_node), but the choice of the root node does not influence the result.

Value

A numeric vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, specifying the distances of all tips (entries 1,..,Ntips) and all nodes (entries Ntips+1,..,Ntips+Nnodes) to the focal tip.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_all_pairwise_distances, get_pairwise_distances

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                             max_tips = Ntips,
                             tip_basename="tip.")$tree

# calculate all distances to a focal tip
distances = get_all_distances_to_tip(tree, "tip.39")
print(distances)

Get the phylogenetic depth of each node in a tree.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, calculate the phylogenetic depth of each node (mean distance to its descending tips).

Usage

get_all_node_depths(tree, as_edge_count=FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

as_edge_count

Logical, specifying whether distances should be counted in number of edges, rather than cumulative edge length. This is the same as if all edges had length 1.

Details

If tree$edge.length is missing, then every edge in the tree is assumed to be of length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The asymptotic average time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A numeric vector of size Nnodes, with the i-th element being the mean distance of the i-th node to all of its tips.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_all_distances_to_root

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1, 
                            	 death_rate_intercept=0.5),
                            max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# calculate node phylogenetic depths
node_depths = get_all_node_depths(tree)

# plot histogram of node depths
hist(node_depths, xlab="phylogenetic depth", ylab="# nodes", prob=FALSE);

Get distances between all pairs of tips and/or nodes.

Description

Calculate phylogenetic ("patristic") distances between all pairs of tips or nodes in the tree, or among a subset of tips/nodes requested.

Usage

get_all_pairwise_distances( tree,
                            only_clades     = NULL, 
                            as_edge_counts  = FALSE,
                            check_input     = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

only_clades

Optional integer vector or character vector, listing tips and/or nodes to which to restrict pairwise distance calculations. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes). If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names.

For example, if only_clades=c('apple','lemon','pear'), then only the distance between ‘apple’ and ‘lemon’, between ‘apple’ and 'pear', and between ‘lemon’ and ‘pear’ are calculated. If only_clades==NULL, then this is equivalent to only_clades=c(1:(Ntips+Nnodes)).

check_input

Logical, whether to perform basic validations of the input data. If you know for certain that your input is valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation time.

as_edge_counts

Logical, specifying whether distances should be calculated in terms of edge counts, rather than cumulative edge lengths. This is the same as if all edges had length 1.

Details

The "patristic distance" between two tips and/or nodes is the shortest cumulative branch length that must be traversed along the tree in order to reach one tip/node from the other.This function returns a square distance matrix, containing the patristic distance between all possible pairs of tips/nodes in the tree (or among the ones provided in only_clades).

If tree$edge.length is missing, then each edge is assumed to be of length 1; this is the same as setting as_edge_counts=TRUE. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The input tree must be rooted at some node for technical reasons (see function root_at_node), but the choice of the root node does not influence the result. If only_clades is a character vector, then tree$tip.label must exist. If node names are included in only_clades, then tree$node.label must also exist.

The asymptotic average time complexity of this function for a balanced binary tree is O(NC*NC*Nanc + Ntips), where NC is the number of tips/nodes considered (e.g., the length of only_clades) and Nanc is the average number of ancestors per tip.

Value

A 2D numeric matrix of size NC x NC, where NC is the number of tips/nodes considered, and with the entry in row r and column c listing the distance between the r-th and the c-th clade considered (e.g., between clades only_clades[r] and only_clades[c]). Note that if only_clades was specified, then the rows and columns in the returned distance matrix correspond to the entries in only_clades (i.e., in the same order). If only_clades was NULL, then the rows and columns in the returned distance matrix correspond to tips (1,..,Ntips) and nodes (Ntips+1,..,Ntips+Nnodes)

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_all_distances_to_root, get_pairwise_distances

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# calculate distances between all internal nodes
only_clades = c((Ntips+1):(Ntips+tree$Nnode))
distances = get_all_pairwise_distances(tree, only_clades)

# reroot at some other node
tree = root_at_node(tree, new_root_node=20, update_indices=FALSE)
new_distances = get_all_pairwise_distances(tree, only_clades)

# verify that distances remained unchanged
plot(distances,new_distances,type='p')

Compute ancestral nodes.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a set of tips and/or nodes ("descendants"), determine their ancestral node indices, traveling a specific number of splits back in time (i.e., towards the root).

Usage

get_ancestral_nodes(tree, descendants, Nsplits)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

descendants

An integer vector or character vector, specifying the tips/nodes for each of which to determine the ancestral node. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes), where Ntips and Nnodes is the number of tips and nodes in the tree, respectively. If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names. In this case tree must include tip.label, as well as node.label if nodes are included in descendants.

Nsplits

Either a single integer or an integer vector of the same length as descendants, with values >=1, specifying how many splits to travel backward. For example, Nsplits=1 will yield the parent node of each tip/node in descendants.

Details

The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Value

An integer vector of the same length as descendants, with values in 1,..,Nnodes, listing the node indices representing the ancestors of descendants traveling backward Nsplits.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_pairwise_mrcas, get_mrca_of_set

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                            max_tips = 50,
                            tip_basename = "tip.",
                            node_basename = "node.")$tree

# pick 3 tips
descendants=c("tip.5", "tip.7","tip.10")

# determine the immediate parent node of each tip
ancestors = castor::get_ancestral_nodes(tree, descendants, Nsplits=1)
print(tree$node.label[ancestors])

Get a representation of a tree as a table listing tips/nodes.

Description

Given a tree in standard "phylo" format, calculate an alternative representation of the tree structure as a list of tips/nodes with basic information on parents, children and incoming edge lengths. This function is analogous to the function read.tree.nodes in the R package phybase.

Usage

get_clade_list(tree, postorder=FALSE, missing_value=NA)

Arguments

tree

A tree of class "phylo". If postorder==TRUE, then the tree must be rooted.

postorder

Logical, specifying whether nodes should be ordered and indexed in postorder traversal, i.e. with the root node listed last. Note that regardless of the value of postorder, tips will always be listed first and indexed in the order in which they are listed in the input tree.

missing_value

Value to be used to denote missing information in the returned arrays, for example to denote the (non-existing) parent of the root node.

Details

This function is analogous to the function read.tree.nodes in the R package phybase v1.4, but becomes multiple orders of magnitude faster than the latter for large trees (i.e. with 1000-1000,000 tips). Specifically, calling get_clade_list with postorder=TRUE and missing_value=-9 on a bifurcating tree yields a similar behavior as calling read.tree.nodes with the argument “name” set to the tree's tip labels.

The input tree can include monofurcations, bifurcations and multifurcations. The asymptotic average time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether model fitting succeeded. If FALSE, the returned list will include an additional “error” element (character) providing a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined.

Nsplits

The maximum number of children of any node in the tree. For strictly bifurcating trees this will be 2.

clades

2D integer matrix of size Nclades x (Nsplits+1), with every row representing a specific tip/node in the tree. If postorder==FALSE, then rows are in the same order as tips/nodes in the original tree, otherwise nodes (but not tips) will be re-ordered and re-indexed in postorder fashion, with the root being the last row. The first column lists the parent node index, the remaining columns list the child tip/node indices. For the root, the parent index will be set to missing_value; for the tips, the child indices will be set to missing_value. For nodes with fewer than Nsplits children, superfluous column entries will also be missing_value.

lengths

Numeric vector of size Nclades, listing the lengths of the incoming edges at each tip/node in clades. For the root, the value will be missing_value. If the tree's edge_length was NULL, then lengths will be NULL as well.

old2new_clade

Integer vector of size Nclades, mapping old tip/node indices to tip/node indices in the returned clades and lengths arrays. If postorder==FALSE, this will simply be c(1:Nclades).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate a random bifurcating tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                            max_tips=100)$tree

# get tree structure as clade list
# then convert into a similar format as would be
# returned by phybase::read.tree.nodes v1.4
results = get_clade_list(tree,postorder=TRUE,missing_value=-9)
nodematrix = cbind( results$clades, 
                    results$lengths, 
                    matrix(-9,nrow=nrow(results$clades),ncol=3))
phybaseformat = list(   nodes = nodematrix, 
                        names = tree$tip.label, 
                        root  = TRUE)

Phylogenetic independent contrasts for continuous traits.

Description

Calculate phylogenetic independent contrasts (PICs) for one or more continuous traits on a phylogenetic tree, as described by Felsenstein (1985). The trait states are assumed to be known for all tips of the tree. PICs are commonly used to calculate correlations between multiple traits, while accounting for shared evolutionary history at the tips. This function also returns an estimate for the state of the root or, equivalently, the phylogenetically weighted mean of the tip states (Garland et al., 1999).

Usage

get_independent_contrasts(tree, 
                          tip_states,
                          scaled = TRUE, 
                          only_bifurcations = FALSE,
                          include_zero_phylodistances = FALSE,
                          check_input = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips, or a 2D numeric matrix of size Ntips x Ntraits, specifying the numeric state of each trait at each tip in the tree.

scaled

Logical, specifying whether to divide (standardize) PICs by the square root of their expected variance, as recommended by Felsenstein (1985).

only_bifurcations

Logical, specifying whether to only calculate PICs for bifurcating nodes. If FALSE, then multifurcations are temporarily expanded to bifurcations, and an additional PIC is calculated for each created bifurcation. If TRUE, then multifurcations are not expanded and PICs will not be calculated for them.

include_zero_phylodistances

Logical, specifying whether the returned PICs may include cases where the phylodistance is zero (this can only happen if the tree has edges with length 0). If FALSE, all returned PICs will have non-zero phylodistances.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

If the tree is bifurcating, then one PIC is returned for each node. If multifurcations are present and only_bifurcations==FALSE, these are internally expanded to bifurcations and an additional PIC is returned for each such bifurcation. PICs are never returned for monofurcating nodes. Hence, in general the number of returned PICs is the number of bifurcations in the tree, potentially after multifurcations have been expanded to bifurcations (if only_bifurcations==FALSE).

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as monofurcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Edges with length 0 will be adjusted internally to some tiny length (chosen to be much smaller than the smallest non-zero length).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include item names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

The function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges x Ntraits). It is more efficient to calculate PICs of multiple traits with the same function call, than to calculate PICs for each trait separately. For a single trait, this function is equivalent to the function ape::pic, with the difference that it can handle multifurcating trees.

Value

A list with the following elements:

PICs

A numeric vector (if tip_states is a vector) or a numeric matrix (if tip_states is a matrix), listing the phylogenetic independent contrasts for each trait and for each bifurcating node (potentially after multifurcations have been expanded). If a matrix, then PICs[:,T] will list the PICs for the T-th trait. Note that the order of elements in this vector (or rows, if PICs is a matrix) is not necesssarily the order of nodes in the tree, and that PICs may contain fewer or more elements (or rows) than there were nodes in the input tree.

distances

Numeric vector of the same size as PICs. The “evolutionary distances” (or time) corresponding to the PICs under a Brownian motion model of trait evolution. These roughly correspond to the cumulative edge lengths between sister nodes from which PICs were calculated; hence their units are the same as those of edge lengths. They do not take into account the actual trait values. See Felsenstein (1985) for details.

nodes

Integer vector of the same size as PICs, listing the node indices for which PICs are returned. If only_bifurcations==FALSE, then this vector may contain NAs, corresponding to temporary nodes created during expansion of multifurcations.

If only_bifurcations==TRUE, then this vector will only list nodes that were bifurcating in the input tree. In that case, PICs[1] will correspond to the node with name tree$node.label[nodes[1]], whereas PICs[2] will correspond to the node with name tree$node.label[nodes[2]], and so on.

root_state

Numeric vector of size Ntraits, listing the globally estimated state for the root or, equivalently, the phylogenetically weighted mean of the tip states.

root_standard_error

Numeric vector of size Ntraits, listing the phylogenetically estimated standard errors of the root state under a Brownian motion model. The standard errors have the same units as the traits and depend both on the tree topology as well as the tip states. Calculated according to the procedure described by Garland et al. (1999, page 377).

root_CI95

Numeric vector of size Ntraits, listing the radius (half width) of the 95% confidence interval of the root state. Calculated according to the procedure described by Garland et al. (1999, page 377). Note that in contrast to the CI95 returned by the ace function in the ape package (v. 0.5-64), root_CI95 has the same units as the traits and depends both on the tree topology as well as the tip states.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. Felsenstein (1985). Phylogenies and the Comparative Method. The American Naturalist. 125:1-15.

T. Garland Jr., P. E. Midford, A. R. Ives (1999). An introduction to phylogenetically based statistical methods, with a new method for confidence intervals on ancestral values. American Zoologist. 39:374-388.

See Also

asr_independent_contrasts, get_independent_sister_tips

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# simulate a continuous trait
tip_states = simulate_bm_model(tree, diffusivity=0.1, include_nodes=FALSE)$tip_states;

# calculate PICs
results = get_independent_contrasts(tree, tip_states, scaled=TRUE, only_bifurcations=TRUE)

# assign PICs to the bifurcating nodes in the input tree
PIC_per_node = rep(NA, tree$Nnode)
valids = which(!is.na(results$nodes))
PIC_per_node[results$nodes[valids]] = results$PICs[valids]

Extract disjoint tip pairs with independent relationships.

Description

Given a rooted tree, extract disjoint pairs of sister tips with disjoint connecting paths. These tip pairs can be used to compute independent contrasts of numerical traits evolving according to an arbitrary time-reversible process.

Usage

get_independent_sister_tips(tree)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

Details

If the input tree only contains monofurcations and bifurcations (recommended), it is guaranteed that at most one unpaired tip will be left (i.e., if Ntips was odd).

Value

An integer matrix of size NP x 2, where NP is the number of returned tip pairs. Each row in this matrix lists the indices (from 1 to Ntips) of a tip pair that can be used to compute a phylogenetic independent contrast.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. Felsenstein (1985). Phylogenies and the Comparative Method. The American Naturalist. 125:1-15.

T. Garland Jr., P. E. Midford, A. R. Ives (1999). An introduction to phylogenetically based statistical methods, with a new method for confidence intervals on ancestral values. American Zoologist. 39:374-388.

See Also

get_independent_contrasts

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# simulate a continuous trait on the tree
tip_states = simulate_bm_model(tree, diffusivity=0.1, include_nodes=FALSE)$tip_states

# get independent tip pairs
tip_pairs = get_independent_sister_tips(tree)

# calculate non-scaled PICs for the trait using the independent tip pairs
PICs = tip_states[tip_pairs]

Most recent common ancestor of a set of tips/nodes.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a set of tips and/or nodes ("descendants"), calculate the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of those descendants.

Usage

get_mrca_of_set(tree, descendants)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

descendants

An integer vector or character vector, specifying the tips/nodes for which to find the MRCA. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes), where Ntips and Nnodes is the number of tips and nodes in the tree, respectively. If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names. In this case tree must include tip.label, as well as node.label if nodes are included in descendants.

Details

The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Duplicate entries in descendants are ignored.

Value

An integer in 1,..,(Ntips+Nnodes), representing the MRCA using the same index as in tree$edge. If the MRCA is a tip, then this index will be in 1,..,Ntips. If the MRCA is a node, then this index will be in (Ntips+1),..,(Ntips+Nnodes).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_pairwise_mrcas, get_tips_for_mrcas

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# pick 3 random tips or nodes
descendants = sample.int(n=(Ntips+tree$Nnode), size=3, replace=FALSE)

# calculate MRCA of picked descendants
mrca = get_mrca_of_set(tree, descendants)

Get distances between pairs of tips or nodes.

Description

Calculate phylogenetic ("patristic") distances between tips or nodes in some list A and tips or nodes in a second list B of the same size.

Usage

get_pairwise_distances(tree, A, B, as_edge_counts=FALSE, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

A

An integer vector or character vector of size Npairs, specifying the first of the two members of each pair for which to calculate the distance. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes). If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names.

B

An integer vector or character vector of size Npairs, specifying the second of the two members of each pair for which to calculate the distance. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes). If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names.

check_input

Logical, whether to perform basic validations of the input data. If you know for certain that your input is valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation time.

as_edge_counts

Logical, specifying whether distances should be calculated in terms of edge counts, rather than cumulative edge lengths. This is the same as if all edges had length 1.

Details

The "patristic distance" between two tips and/or nodes is the shortest cumulative branch length that must be traversed along the tree in order to reach one tip/node from the other. Given a list of tips and/or nodes A, and a 2nd list of tips and/or nodes B of the same size, this function will calculate patristic distance between each pair (A[i], B[i]), where i=1,2,..,Npairs.

If tree$edge.length is missing, then each edge is assumed to be of length 1; this is the same as setting as_edge_counts=TRUE. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The input tree must be rooted at some node for technical reasons (see function root_at_node), but the choice of the root node does not influence the result. If A and/or B is a character vector, then tree$tip.label must exist. If node names are included in A and/or B, then tree$node.label must also exist.

The asymptotic average time complexity of this function for a balanced binary tree is O(Ntips+Npairs*log2(Ntips)).

Value

A numeric vector of size Npairs, with the i-th element being the patristic distance between the tips/nodes A[i] and B[i].

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_all_distances_to_root, get_all_pairwise_distances

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# pick 3 random pairs of tips or nodes
Npairs = 3
A = sample.int(n=(Ntips+tree$Nnode), size=Npairs, replace=FALSE)
B = sample.int(n=(Ntips+tree$Nnode), size=Npairs, replace=FALSE)

# calculate distances
distances = get_pairwise_distances(tree, A, B)

# reroot at some other node
tree = root_at_node(tree, new_root_node=20, update_indices=FALSE)
new_distances = get_pairwise_distances(tree, A, B)

# verify that distances remained unchanged
print(distances)
print(new_distances)

Get most recent common ancestors of tip/node pairs.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and one or more pairs of tips and/or nodes, for each pair of tips/nodes find the most recent common ancestor (MRCA). If one clade is descendant of the other clade, the latter will be returned as MRCA.

Usage

get_pairwise_mrcas(tree, A, B, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

A

An integer vector or character vector of size Npairs, specifying the first of the two members of each pair of tips/nodes for which to find the MRCA. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes). If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names.

B

An integer vector or character vector of size Npairs, specifying the second of the two members of each pair of tips/nodes for which to find the MRCA. If an integer vector, it must list indices of tips (from 1 to Ntips) and/or nodes (from Ntips+1 to Ntips+Nnodes). If a character vector, it must list tip and/or node names.

check_input

Logical, whether to perform basic validations of the input data. If you know for certain that your input is valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation time.

Details

The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If tree$edge.length is missing, then each edge is assumed to be of length 1. Note that in some cases the MRCA of two tips may be a tip, namely when both tips are the same.

If A and/or B is a character vector, then tree$tip.label must exist. If node names are included in A and/or B, then tree$node.label must also exist.

The asymptotic average time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

An integer vector of size Npairs with values in 1,..,Ntips (tips) and/or in (Ntips+1),..,(Ntips+Nnodes) (nodes), with the i-th element being the index of the MRCA of tips/nodes A[i] and B[i].

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_mrca_of_set, get_tips_for_mrcas

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# pick 3 random pairs of tips or nodes
Npairs = 3
A = sample.int(n=(Ntips+tree$Nnode), size=Npairs, replace=FALSE)
B = sample.int(n=(Ntips+tree$Nnode), size=Npairs, replace=FALSE)

# calculate MRCAs
MRCAs = get_pairwise_mrcas(tree, A, B)

Create a random diffusivity matrix for a Brownian motion model.

Description

Create a random diffusivity matrix for a Brownian motion model of multi-trait evolution. This may be useful for testing purposes. The diffusivity matrix is drawn from the Wishart distribution of symmetric, nonnegative-definite matrixes:

D=XTX,X[i,j]N(0,V),i=1,..,n,j=1,..,p,D = X^T \cdot X,\quad X[i,j]\sim N(0,V),\quad i=1,..,n, j=1,..,p,

where n is the degrees of freedom, p is the number of traits and V is a scalar scaling.

Usage

get_random_diffusivity_matrix(Ntraits, degrees=NULL, V=1)

Arguments

Ntraits

The number of traits modelled. Equal to the number of rows and the number of columns of the returned matrix.

degrees

Degrees of freedom for the Wishart distribution. Must be equal to or greater than Ntraits. Can also be NULL, which is the same as setting it equal to Ntraits.

V

Positive number. A scalar scaling for the Wishart distribution.

Value

A real-valued quadratic symmetric non-negative definite matrix of size Ntraits x Ntraits. Almost surely (in the probabilistic sense), this matrix will be positive definite.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_random_mk_transition_matrix, simulate_bm_model

Examples

# generate a 5x5 diffusivity matrix
D = get_random_diffusivity_matrix(Ntraits=5)

# check that it is indeed positive definite
if(all(eigen(D)$values>0)){ 
  cat("Indeed positive definite\n");
}else{ 
  cat("Not positive definite\n"); 
}

Create a random transition matrix for an Mk model.

Description

Create a random transition matrix for a fixed-rates continuous-time Markov model of discrete trait evolution ("Mk model"). This may be useful for testing purposes.

Usage

get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model, min_rate=0, max_rate=1)

Arguments

Nstates

The number of distinct states represented in the transition matrix (number of rows & columns).

rate_model

Rate model that the transition matrix must satisfy. Can be "ER" (all rates equal), "SYM" (transition rate i–>j is equal to transition rate j–>i), "ARD" (all rates can be different) or "SUEDE" (only stepwise transitions i–>i+1 and i–>i-1 allowed, all 'up' transitions are equal, all 'down' transitions are equal).

min_rate

A non-negative number, specifying the minimum rate in off-diagonal entries of the transition matrix.

max_rate

A non-negative number, specifying the maximum rate in off-diagonal entries of the transition matrix. Must not be smaller than min_rate.

Value

A real-valued quadratic matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, representing a transition matrix for an Mk model. Each row will sum to 0. The [r,c]-th entry represents the transition rate r–>c. The number of unique off-diagonal rates will depend on the rate_model chosen.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

exponentiate_matrix, get_stationary_distribution

Examples

# generate a 5x5 Markov transition rate matrix
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates=5, rate_model="ARD")

Calculate relative evolutionary divergences in a tree.

Description

Calculate the relative evolutionary divergence (RED) of each node in a rooted phylogenetic tree. The RED of a node is a measure of its relative placement between the root and the node's descending tips (Parks et al. 2018). The root's RED is always 0, the RED of each tip is 1, and the RED of each node is between 0 and 1.

Usage

get_reds(tree)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

Details

The RED of a node measures its relative placement between the root and the node's descending tips (Parks et al. 2018). The root's RED is set to 0. Traversing from root to tips (preorder traversal), for each node the RED is set to P+(a/(a+b))(1P)P+(a/(a+b))\cdot(1-P), where PP is the RED of the node's parent, aa is the edge length connecting the node to its parent, and bb is the average distance from the node to its descending tips. The RED of a tip would always be 1.

The RED may be useful for defining taxonomic ranks based on a molecular phylogeny (e.g. see Parks et al. 2018). This function is similar to the PhyloRank v0.0.27 script published by Parks et al. (2018).

The time complexity of this function is O(Nedges). The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If tree$edge.length is NULL, then all edges in the input tree are assumed to have length 1.

Value

A numeric vector of length Nnodes, listing the RED of each node in the tree. The REDs of tips are not included, since these would always be equal to 1.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

D. H. Parks, M. Chuvochina et al. (2018). A standardized bacterial taxonomy based on genome phylogeny substantially revises the tree of life. Nature Biotechnology. 36:996-1004.

Examples

# generate a random tree
params = list(birth_rate_intercept=1, death_rate_intercept=0.8)
tree = generate_random_tree(params, max_time=100, coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# calculate and print REDs
REDs = get_reds(tree)
print(REDs)

Stationary distribution of Markov transition matrix.

Description

Calculate the stationary probability distribution vector p for a transition matrix Q of a continuous-time Markov chain. That is, calculate p[0,1]np\in[0,1]^n such that sum(p)==0 and pTQ=0p^TQ=0.

Usage

get_stationary_distribution(Q)

Arguments

Q

A valid transition rate matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, i.e. a quadratic matrix in which every row sums up to zero.

Details

A stationary distribution of a discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain is a probability distribution across states that remains constant over time, i.e. pTQ=0p^TQ=0. Note that in some cases (i.e. if Q is not irreducible), there may be multiple distinct stationary distributions. In that case,which one is returned by this function is unpredictable. Internally, p is estimated by stepwise minimization of the norm of pTQp^TQ, starting with the vector p in which every entry equals 1/Nstates.

Value

A numeric vector of size Nstates and with non-negative entries, satisfying the conditions p%*%Q==0 and sum(p)==1.0.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

exponentiate_matrix

Examples

# generate a random 5x5 Markov transition matrix
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates=5, rate_model="ARD")

# calculate stationary probability distribution
p = get_stationary_distribution(Q)
print(p)

# test correctness (p*Q should be 0, apart from rounding errors)
cat(sprintf("max(abs(p*Q)) = %g\n",max(abs(p %*% Q))))

Extract a subtree descending from a specific node.

Description

Given a tree and a focal node, extract the subtree descending from the focal node and place the focal node as the root of the extracted subtree.

Usage

get_subtree_at_node(tree, node)

Arguments

tree

A tree of class "phylo".

node

Character or integer specifying the name or index, respectively, of the focal node at which to extract the subtree. If an integer, it must be between 1 and tree$Nnode. If a character, it must be a valid entry in tree$node.label.

Details

The input tree need not be rooted, however "descendance" from the focal node is inferred based on the direction of edges in tree$edge. The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Value

A named list with the following elements:

subtree

A new tree of class "phylo", containing the subtree descending from the focal node. This tree will be rooted, with the new root being the focal node.

new2old_tip

Integer vector of length Ntips_kept (=number of tips in the extracted subtree) with values in 1,..,Ntips, mapping tip indices of the subtree to tip indices in the original tree. In particular, tree$tip.label[new2old_tip] will be equal to subtree$tip.label.

new2old_node

Integer vector of length Nnodes_kept (=number of nodes in the extracted subtree) with values in 1,..,Nnodes, mapping node indices of the subtree to node indices in the original tree.

For example, new2old_node[1] is the index that the first node of the subtree had within the original tree. In particular, tree$node.label[new2old_node] will be equal to subtree$node.label (if node labels are available).

new2old_edge

Integer vector of length Nedges_kept (=number of edges in the extracted subtree), with values in 1,..,Nedges, mapping edge indices of the subtree to edge indices in the original tree. In particular, tree$edge.length[new2old_edge] will be equal to subtree$edge.length (if edge lengths are available).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_subtree_with_tips

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# extract subtree descending from a random node
node = sample.int(tree$Nnode,size=1)
subtree = get_subtree_at_node(tree, node)$subtree

# print summary of subtree
cat(sprintf("Subtree at %d-th node has %d tips\n",node,length(subtree$tip.label)))

Extract a subtree spanning a specific subset of tips.

Description

Given a rooted tree and a subset of tips, extract the subtree containing only those tips. The root of the tree is kept.

Usage

get_subtree_with_tips(tree, 
                      only_tips               = NULL, 
                      omit_tips               = NULL, 
                      collapse_monofurcations = TRUE, 
                      force_keep_root         = FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

only_tips

Either a character vector listing tip names to keep, or an integer vector listing tip indices to keep (between 1 and Ntips). Can also be NULL. Tips listed in only_tips not found in the tree will be silently ignored.

omit_tips

Either a character vector listing tip names to omit, or an integer vector listing tip indices to omit (between 1 and Ntips). Can also be NULL. Tips listed in omit_tips not found in the tree will be silently ignored.

collapse_monofurcations

A logical specifying whether nodes with a single outgoing edge remaining should be collapsed (removed). Incoming and outgoing edge of such nodes will be concatenated into a single edge, connecting the parent (or earlier) and child (or later) of the node. In that case, the returned tree will have edge lengths that reflect the concatenated edges.

force_keep_root

Logical, specifying whether to keep the root even if collapse_monofurcations==TRUE and the root of the subtree is left with a single child. If FALSE, and collapse_monofurcations==TRUE, the root may be removed and one of its descendants may become root.

Details

If both only_tips and omit_tips are NULL, then all tips are kept and the tree remains unchanged. If both only_tips and omit_tips are non-NULL, then only tips listed in only_tips and not listed in omit_tips will be kept. If only_tips and/or omit_tips is a character vector listing tip names, then tree$tip.label must exist.

If the input tree does not include edge.length, each edge in the input tree is assumed to have length 1. The root of the tree (which is always kept) is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge. The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nnodes+Ntips), where Ntips is the number of tips and Nnodes the number of nodes in the input tree.

When only_tips==NULL, omit_tips!=NULL, collapse_monofurcations==TRUE and force_keep_root==FALSE, this function is analogous to the function drop.tip in the ape package with option trim_internal=TRUE (v. 0.5-64).

Value

A list with the following elements:

subtree

A new tree of class "phylo", containing only the tips specified by tips_to_keep and the nodes & edges connecting those tips to the root. The returned tree will include edge.lengh as a member variable, listing the lengths of the remaining (possibly concatenated) edges.

root_shift

Numeric, indicating the phylogenetic distance between the old and the new root. Will always be non-negative.

new2old_tip

Integer vector of length Ntips_kept (=number of tips in the extracted subtree) with values in 1,..,Ntips, mapping tip indices of the subtree to tip indices in the original tree. In particular, tree$tip.label[new2old_tip] will be equal to subtree$tip.label.

new2old_node

Integer vector of length Nnodes_kept (=number of nodes in the extracted subtree) with values in 1,..,Nnodes, mapping node indices of the subtree to node indices in the original tree.

For example, new2old_node[1] is the index that the first node of the subtree had within the original tree. In particular, tree$node.label[new2old_node] will be equal to subtree$node.label (if node labels are available).

old2new_tip

Integer vector of length Ntips, with values in 1,..,Ntips_kept, mapping tip indices of the original tree to tip indices in the subtree (a value of 0 is used whenever a tip is absent in the subtree). This is essentially the inverse of the mapping new2old_tip.

old2new_node

Integer vector of length Nnodes, with values in 1,..,Nnodes_kept, mapping node indices of the original tree to node indices in the subtree (a value of 0 is used whenever a node is absent in the subtree). This is essentially the inverse of the mapping new2old_node.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_subtree_at_node

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# choose a random subset of tips
tip_subset = sample.int(Ntips, size=as.integer(Ntips/10), replace=FALSE)

# extract subtree spanning the chosen tip subset
subtree = get_subtree_with_tips(tree, only_tips=tip_subset)$subtree

# print summary of subtree
cat(sprintf("Subtree has %d tips and %d nodes\n",length(subtree$tip.label),subtree$Nnode))

Extract subtrees descending from specific nodes.

Description

Given a tree and a list of focal nodes, extract the subtrees descending from those focal nodes, with the focal nodes becoming the roots of the extracted subtrees.

Usage

get_subtrees_at_nodes(tree, nodes)

Arguments

tree

A tree of class "phylo".

nodes

Character vector or integer vector specifying the names or indices, respectively, of the focal nodes at which to extract the subtrees. If an integer vector, entries must be between 1 and tree$Nnode. If a character vector, each entry must be a valid entry in tree$node.label.

Details

The input tree need not be rooted, however "descendance" from a focal node is inferred based on the direction of edges in tree$edge. The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Value

A list with the following elements:

subtrees

List of the same length as nodes, with each element being a new tree of class "phylo", containing the subtrees descending from the focal nodes. Each subtree will be rooted at the corresponding focal node.

new2old_tip

List of the same length as nodes, with the n-th element being an integer vector with values in 1,..,Ntips, mapping tip indices of the n-th subtree to tip indices in the original tree. In particular, tree$tip.label[new2old_tip[[n]]] will be equal to subtrees[[n]]$tip.label.

new2old_node

List of the same length as nodes, with the n-th element being an integer vector with values in 1,..,Nnodes, mapping node indices of the n-th subtree to node indices in the original tree.

For example, new2old_node[[2]][1] is the index that the 1st node of the 2nd subtree had within the original tree. In particular, tree$node.label[new2old_node[[n]]] will be equal to subtrees[[n]]$node.label (if node labels are available).

new2old_edge

List of the same length as nodes, with the n-th element being an integer vector with values in 1,..,Nedges, mapping edge indices of the n-th subtree to edge indices in the original tree. In particular, tree$edge.length[new2old_edge[[n]]] will be equal to subtrees[[n]]$edge.length (if edge lengths are available).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_subtree_at_node,

get_subtree_with_tips

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# extract subtrees descending from random nodes
nodes = sample.int(tree$Nnode,size=10)
subtrees = get_subtrees_at_nodes(tree, nodes)$subtrees

# print summaries of extracted subtrees
for(n in length(nodes)){
  cat(sprintf("Subtree at %d-th node has %d tips\n",nodes[n],length(subtrees[[n]]$tip.label)))
}

Find tips with specific most recent common ancestors.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a list of nodes ("MRCA nodes"), for each MRCA node find a set of descending tips ("MRCA-defining tips") such that their most recent common ancestor (MRCA) is that node. This may be useful for cases where nodes need to be described as MRCAs of tip pairs for input to certain phylogenetics algorithms (e.g., for tree dating).

Usage

get_tips_for_mrcas(tree, mrca_nodes, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

mrca_nodes

Either an integer vector or a character vector, listing the nodes for each of which an MRCA-defining set of tips is to be found. If an integer vector, it should list node indices (i.e. from 1 to Nnodes). If a character vector, it should list node names; in that case tree$node.label must exist.

check_input

Logical, whether to perform basic validations of the input data. If you know for certain that your input is valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation time.

Details

At most 2 MRCA-defining tips are assigned to each MRCA node. This function assumes that each of the mrca_nodes has at least two children or has a child that is a tip (otherwise the problem is not well-defined). The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Ntips+Nnodes) + O(Nmrcas), where Ntips is the number of tips, Nnodes is the number of nodes in the tree and Nmrcas is equal to length(mrca_nodes).

Value

A list of the same size as mrca_nodes, whose n-th element is an integer vector of tip indices (i.e. with values in 1,..,Ntips) whose MRCA is the n-th node listed in mrca_nodes.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_pairwise_mrcas, get_mrca_of_set

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# pick random nodes
focal_nodes = sample.int(n=tree$Nnode, size=3, replace=FALSE)

# get tips for mrcas
tips_per_focal_node = get_tips_for_mrcas(tree, focal_nodes);

# check correctness (i.e. calculate actual MRCAs of tips)
for(n in 1:length(focal_nodes)){
  mrca = get_mrca_of_set(tree, tips_per_focal_node[[n]])
  cat(sprintf("Focal node = %d, should match mrca of tips = %d\n",focal_nodes[n],mrca-Ntips))
}

Phylogenetic autocorrelation function of a numeric trait.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a numeric (typically continuous) trait with known value (state) on each tip, calculate the phylogenetic autocorrelation function (ACF) of the trait. The ACF is a function of phylogenetic distance x, where ACF(x) is the Pearson autocorrelation of the trait between two tips, provided that the tips have phylogenetic ("patristic") distance x. The function get_trait_acf also calculates the mean absolute difference and the mean relative difference of the trait between any two random tips at phylogenetic distance x (see details below).

Usage

get_trait_acf(tree, 
              tip_states,
              Npairs            = 10000,
              Nbins             = NULL,
              min_phylodistance = 0,
              max_phylodistance = NULL,
              uniform_grid      = FALSE,
              phylodistance_grid= NULL)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the value of the trait at each tip in the tree. Note that tip_states[i] (where i is an integer index) must correspond to the i-th tip in the tree.

Npairs

Total number of random tip pairs to draw. A greater number of tip pairs will improve the accuracy of the estimated ACF within each distance bin. Tip pairs are drawn randomly with replacement. If Npairs<=0, then every tip pair is included exactly once.

Nbins

Number of distance bins to consider within the range of phylogenetic distances encountered between tip pairs in the tree. A greater number of bins will increase the resolution of the ACF as a function of phylogenetic distance, but will decrease the number of tip pairs falling within each bin (which reduces the accuracy of the estimated ACF). If NULL, then Nbins is automatically and somewhat reasonably chosen based on the size of the input trees.

min_phylodistance

Numeric, minimum phylogenetic distance to conssider. Only relevant if phylodistance_grid is NULL.

max_phylodistance

Numeric, optional maximum phylogenetic distance to consider. If NULL, this is automatically set to the maximum phylodistance between any two tips.

uniform_grid

Logical, specifying whether the phylodistance grid should be uniform, i.e., with equally sized phylodistance bins. If FALSE, then the grid is chosen non-uniformly (i.e., each bin has different size) such that each bin roughly contains the same number of tip pairs. This helps equalize the estimation error across bins. Only relevant if phylodistance_grid is NULL.

phylodistance_grid

Numeric vector, optional explicitly specified phylodistance bins (left boundaries thereof) on which to evaluate the ACF. Must contain non-negative numbers in strictly ascending order. Hence, the first bin will range from phylodistance_grid[1] to phylodistance_grid[2], while the last bin will range from tail(phylodistance_grid,1) to max_phylodistance. Can be used as an alternative to Nbins. If non-NULL, then Nbins, min_phylodistance and uniform_grid are irrelevant.

Details

The phylogenetic autocorrelation function (ACF) of a trait can give insight into the evolutionary processes shaping its distribution across clades. An ACF that decays slowly with increasing phylogenetic distance indicates a strong phylogenetic conservatism of the trait, whereas a rapidly decaying ACF indicates weak phylogenetic conservatism. Similarly, if the mean absolute difference in trait value between two random tips increases with phylogenetic distance, this indicates a phylogenetic autocorrelation of the trait (Zaneveld et al. 2014). Here, phylogenetic distance between tips refers to their patristic distance, i.e. the minimum cumulative edge length required to connect the two tips.

Since the phylogenetic distances between all possible tip pairs do not cover a continuoum (as there is only a finite number of tips), this function randomly draws tip pairs from the tree, maps them onto a finite set of equally-sized distance bins and then estimates the ACF for the centroid of each distance bin based on tip pairs in that bin. In practice, as a next step one would usually plot the estimated ACF (returned vector autocorrelations) over the centroids of the distance bins (returned vector distances).

Phylogenetic distance bins can be specified in two alternative ways: Either a set of bins (phylodistance grid) is automatically calculated based on the provided Nbins, min_phylodistance, max_phylodistance and uniform_grid, or a phylodistance grid is explicitly provided via phylodistance_grid and max_phylodistance.

The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If tree$edge.length is missing, then every edge is assumed to have length 1. The input tree must be rooted at some node for technical reasons (see function root_at_node), but the choice of the root node does not influence the result.

This function assumes that each tip is assigned exactly one trait value. This might be problematic in situations where each tip covers a range of trait values, for example if tips are species and multiple individuals were sampled from each species. In that case, one might consider representing each individual as a separate tip in the tree, so that each tip has exactly one trait value.

Value

A list with the following elements:

phylodistances

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the center of each phylodistance bin in increasing order. This is equal to 0.5*(left_phylodistances+right_phylodistances). Typically, you will want to plot autocorrelations over phylodistances.

left_phylodistances

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the left boundary of each phylodistance bin in increasing order.

right_phylodistances

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the right boundary of each phylodistance bin in increasing order.

autocorrelations

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the estimated Pearson autocorrelation of the trait for each distance bin.

mean_abs_differences

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the mean absolute difference of the trait between tip pairs in each distance bin.

mean_rel_differences

Numeric vector of size Nbins, storing the mean relative difference of the trait between tip pairs in each distance bin. The relative difference between two values XX and YY is 0 if X==YX==Y, and equal to

XY0.5(X+Y)\frac{|X-Y|}{0.5\cdot (|X|+|Y|)}

otherwise.

Npairs_per_distance

Integer vector of size Nbins, storing the number of random tip pairs associated with each phylodistance bin.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

consentrait_depth, geographic_acf

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=0.1),max_tips=1000)$tree

# simulate continuous trait evolution on the tree
tip_states = simulate_ou_model(tree, 
                               stationary_mean  = 0,
                               stationary_std   = 1,
                               decay_rate       = 0.01)$tip_states

# calculate autocorrelation function
ACF = get_trait_acf(tree, tip_states, Nbins=10, uniform_grid=TRUE)

# plot ACF (autocorrelation vs phylogenetic distance)
plot(ACF$phylodistances, ACF$autocorrelations, type="l", xlab="distance", ylab="ACF")

Calculate mean & standard deviation of a numeric trait on a dated tree over time.

Description

Given a rooted and dated phylogenetic tree, and a scalar numeric trait with known value on each node and tip of the tree, calculate the mean and the variance of the trait's states across the tree at discrete time points. For example, if the trait represents "body size", then this function calculates the mean body size of extant clades over time.

Usage

get_trait_stats_over_time(tree,
                          states, 
                          Ntimes            = NULL,
                          times             = NULL,
                          include_quantiles = TRUE,
                          check_input       = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo", where edge lengths represent time intervals (or similar).

states

Numeric vector, specifying the trait's state at each tip and each node of the tree (in the order in which tips & nodes are indexed). May include NA or NaN if values are missing for some tips/nodes.

Ntimes

Integer, number of equidistant time points for which to calculade clade counts. Can also be NULL, in which case times must be provided.

times

Integer vector, listing time points (in ascending order) for which to calculate clade counts. Can also be NULL, in which case Ntimes must be provided.

include_quantiles

Logical, specifying whether to include information on quantiles (e.g., median, CI95, CI50) of the trait over time, in addition to the means and standard deviations. This option increases computation time and memory needs for large trees, so if you only care about means and standard deviations you can set this to FALSE.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

If tree$edge.length is missing, then every edge in the tree is assumed to be of length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The tree need not be ultrametric (e.g. may include extinct tips), although in general this function only makes sense if edge lengths correspond to time (or similar).

Either Ntimes or times must be non-NULL, but not both. states need not include names; if it does, then these are checked to be in the same order as in the tree (if check_input==TRUE).

Value

A list with the following elements:

Ntimes

Integer, indicating the number of returned time points. Equal to the provided Ntimes if applicable.

times

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the considered time points in increasing order. If times was provided as an argument to the function, then this will be the same as provided.

clade_counts

Integer vector of size Ntimes, listing the number of tips or nodes considered at each time point.

means

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the arithmetic mean of trait states at each time point.

stds

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the standard deviation of trait states at each time point.

medians

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the median trait state at each time point. Only returned if include_uantiles=TRUE.

CI50lower

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the lower end of the equal-tailed 50% range of trait states (i.e., the 25% percentile) at each time point. Only returned if include_uantiles=TRUE.

CI50upper

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the upper end of the equal-tailed 50% range of trait states (i.e., the 75% percentile) at each time point. Only returned if include_uantiles=TRUE.

CI95lower

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the lower end of the equal-tailed 95% range of trait states (i.e., the 2.5% percentile) at each time point. Only returned if include_uantiles=TRUE.

CI95upper

Numeric vector of size Ntimes, listing the upper end of the equal-tailed 95% range of trait states (i.e., the 97.5% percentile) at each time point. Only returned if include_uantiles=TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1), max_tips=1000)$tree

# simulate a numeric trait under Brownian-motion
trait = simulate_bm_model(tree, diffusivity=1)
states = c(trait$tip_states,trait$node_states)

# calculate trait stats over time
results = get_trait_stats_over_time(tree, states, Ntimes=100)

# plot trait stats over time (mean +/- std)
M = results$means
S = results$stds
matplot(x=results$times, 
        y=matrix(c(M-S,M+S),ncol=2,byrow=FALSE),
        main = "Simulated BM trait over time",
        lty = 1, col="black",
        type="l", xlab="time", ylab="mean +/- std")

Create an index matrix for a Markov transition model.

Description

Create an index matrix encoding the parametric structure of the transition rates in a discrete-state continuous-time Markov model (e.g., Mk model of trait evolution). Such an index matrix is required by certain functions for mapping independent rate parameters to transition rates. For example, an index matrix may encode the information that each rate i–>j is equal to its reversed counterpart j–>i.

Usage

get_transition_index_matrix(Nstates, rate_model)

Arguments

Nstates

Integer, the number of distinct states represented in the transition matrix (number of rows & columns).

rate_model

Rate model that the transition matrix must satisfy. Can be "ER" (all rates equal), "SYM" (transition rate i–>j is equal to transition rate j–>i), "ARD" (all rates can be different) or "SUEDE" (only stepwise transitions i–>i+1 and i–>i-1 allowed, all 'up' transitions are equal, all 'down' transitions are equal).

Details

The returned index matrix will include as many different positive integers as there are independent rate parameters in the requested rate model, plus potentially the value 0 (which has a special meaning, see below).

Value

A named list with the following elements:

index_matrix

Integer matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, with values between 0 and Nstates, assigning each entry in the transition matrix to an independent transition rate parameter. A value of 0 means that the corresponding rate is fixed to zero (if off-diagonal) or will be adjusted to ensure a valid Markov transition rate matrix (if on the diagonal).

Nrates

Integer, the number of independent rate parameters in the model.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_random_mk_transition_matrix


Get min and max distance of any tip to the root.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, calculate the minimum and maximum phylogenetic distance (cumulative branch length) of any tip from the root.

Usage

get_tree_span(tree, as_edge_count=FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

as_edge_count

Logical, specifying whether distances should be counted in number of edges, rather than cumulative edge length. This is the same as if all edges had length 1.

Details

If tree$edge.length is missing, then every edge in the tree is assumed to be of length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The asymptotic average time complexity of this function is O(Nedges), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

min_distance

Minimum phylogenetic distance that any of the tips has to the root.

max_distance

Maximum phylogenetic distance that any of the tips has to the root.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_pairwise_distances

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips   = 1000
params  = list(birth_rate_intercept=1, death_rate_intercept=0.5)
tree    = generate_random_tree(params, max_tips=Ntips, coalescent=FALSE)$tree

# calculate min & max tip distances from root
tree_span = get_tree_span(tree)
cat(sprintf("Tip min dist = %g, max dist = %g\n",
            tree_span$min_distance,
            tree_span$max_distance))

Traverse tree from root to tips.

Description

Create data structures for traversing a tree from root to tips, and for efficient retrieval of a node's outgoing edges and children.

Usage

get_tree_traversal_root_to_tips(tree, include_tips)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

include_tips

Include tips in the tarversal queue. If FALSE, then only nodes are included in the queue.

Details

Many dynamic programming algorithms for phylogenetics involve traversing the tree in a certain direction (root to tips or tips to root), and efficient (O(1) complexity) access to a node's direct children can significantly speed up those algorithms. This function is meant to provide data structures that allow traversing the tree's nodes (and optionally tips) in such an order that each node is traversed prior to its descendants (root–>tips) or such that each node is traversed after its descendants (tips–>root). This function is mainly meant for use in other algorithms, and is probably of little relevance to the average user.

The tree may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

The asymptotic time and memory complexity of this function is O(Ntips), where Ntips is the number of tips in the tree.

Value

A list with the following elements:

queue

An integer vector of size Nnodes (if include_tips was FALSE) or of size Nnodes+Ntips (if include_tips was TRUE), listing indices of nodes (and optionally tips) in the order root–>tips described above. In particular, queue[1] will be the index of the tree's root (typically Ntips+1).

edges

An integer vector of size Nedges (=nrow(tree$edge)), listing indices of edges (corresponding to tree$edge) such that outgoing edges of the same node are listed in consequtive order.

node2first_edge

An integer vector of size Nnodes listing the location of the first outgoing edge of each node in edges. That is, edges[node2first_edge[n]] points to the first outgoing edge of node n in tree$edge.

node2last_edge

An integer vector of size Nnodes listing the location of the last outgoing edge of each node in edges. That is, edges[node2last_edge[n]] points to the last outgoing edge of node n in tree$edge. The total number of outgoing edges of a node is thus given by 1+node2last_edge[n]-node2first_edge[n].

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

reorder_tree_edges

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=1), max_tips=100)$tree

# get tree traversal
traversal = get_tree_traversal_root_to_tips(tree, include_tips=TRUE)

## End(Not run)

Hidden state prediction for a binary trait based on the binomial distribution.

Description

Estimate the state probabilities for a binary trait at ancestral nodes and tips with unknown (hidden) state, by fitting the probability parameter of a binomial distribution to empirical state frequencies. For each node, the states of its descending tips are assumed to be drawn randomly and independently according to some a priori unknown probability distribution. The probability P1 (probability of any random descending tip being in state 1) is estimated separately for each node based on the observed states in the descending tips via maximum likelihood.

This function can account for potential state-measurement errors, hidden states and reveal biases (i.e., tips in one particular state being more likely to be measured than in the other state). Only nodes with a number of non-hidden tips above a certain threshold are included in the ML-estimation phase. All other nodes and hidden tips are then assigned the probabilities estimated for the most closely related ancestral node with estimated probabilities. This function is a generalization of hsp_empirical_probabilities that can account for potential state-measurement errors and reveal biases.

Usage

hsp_binomial( tree, 
              tip_states,
              reveal_probs  = NULL,
              state1_probs  = NULL,
              min_revealed  = 1,
              max_STE       = Inf,
              check_input   = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

tip_states

Integer vector of length Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree (either 1 or 2). tip_states can include NA to indicate a hidden (non-measured) tip state.

reveal_probs

2D numeric matrix of size Ntips x 2, listing tip-specific reveal probabilities at each tip conditional on the tip's true state. Hence reveal_probs[n,s] is the probability that tip n would have a measured (non-hidden) state if its true state was s. May also be a vector of length 2 (same reveal_probs for all tips) or NULL (unbiased reveal probs).

state1_probs

2D numeric matrix of size Ntips x 2, listing the probability of measuring state 1 (potentially erroneously) at each tip conditional upon its true state and conditional upon its state having been measured (i.e., being non-hidden). For example, for an incompletely sequenced genome with completion level C_n and state 1 indicating presence and state 2 indicating absence of a gene, and assuming error-free detection of genes within the covered regions, one has state1_probs[n,1] = C_n and state1_probs[n,2]=0. state1_probs may also be a vector of length 2 (same probabilities for all tips) or NULL. If NULL, state measurements are assumed error-free, and hence this is the same as c(1,0).

min_revealed

Non-negative integer, specifying the minimum number of tips with non-hidden state that must descend from a node for estimating its P1 via maximum likelihood. For nodes with too few descending tips with non-hidden state, the probability P1 will not be estimated via maximum likelihood, and instead will be set to the P1 estimated for the nearest possible ancestral node. It is advised to set this threshold greater than zero (typical values are 2–10).

max_STE

Non-negative numeric, specifying the maximum acceptable estimated standard error (STE) for the estimated probability P1 for a node. If the STE for a node exceeds this threshold, the P1 for that node is set to the P1 of the nearest ancestor with STE below that threshold. Setting this to Inf disables this functionality. The STE is estimated based on the Observed Fisher Information Criterion (which, strictly speaking, only provides a lower bound for the STE).

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some additional time-consuming checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

This function currently only supports binary traits, and states must be represented by integers 1 or 2. Any NA entries in tip_states are interpreted as hidden (non-revealed) states.

The algorithm proceeds in two phases ("ASR" phase and "HSP" phase). In the ASR phase the state probability P1 is estimated separately for every node and tip satisfying the thresholds min_revealed and max_STE, via maximum-likelihood. In the HSP phase, the P1 of nodes and tips not included in the ASR phase is set to the P1 of the nearest ancestral node with estimated P1, as described by Zaneveld and Thurber (2014).

This function yields estimates for the state probabilities P1 (note that P2=1-P1). In order to obtain point estimates for tip states one needs to interpret these probabilities in a meaningful way, for example by choosing as point estimate for each tip the state with highest probability P1 or P2; the closest that probability is to 1, the more reliable the point estimate will be.

The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). This function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges x Nstates). Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether HSP was successful. If FALSE, an additional element error (character) will be returned describing the error, while all other return values may be NULL.

P1

Numeric vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing the estimated probability of being in state 1 for each tip and node. A value of P1[n]=0 or P1[n]=1 means that the n-th tip/node is in state 2 or state 1 with absolute certainty, respectively. Note that even tips with non-hidden state may have have a P1 that is neither 0 or 1, if state measurements are erroneous (i.e., if state1_probs[n,] differs from (1,0)).

STE

Numeric vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing the standard error of the estimated P1 at each tip and node, according to the Observed Fisher Information Criterion. Note that the latter strictly speaking only provides a lower bound on the standard error.

states

Integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, with values in {1,2}, listing the maximum-likelihood estimate of the state in each tip & node.

reveal_counts

Integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, listing the number of tips with non-hidden state descending from each tip and node.

inheritted

Logical vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, specifying for each tip or node whether its returned P1 was directly maximum-likelihood estimated duirng the ASR phase (inheritted[n]==FALSE) or set to the P1 estimated for an ancestral node during the HSP phase (inheritted[n]==TRUE).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

hsp_max_parsimony, hsp_mk_model, hsp_empirical_probabilities

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate random tree
Ntips =50
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a binary trait on the tips
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates=2, rate_model="ER", min_rate=0.1, max_rate=0.5)
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states

# print tip states
cat(sprintf("True tip states:\n"))
print(tip_states)

# hide some of the tip states
# include a reveal bias
reveal_probs = c(0.8, 0.3)
revealed = sapply(1:Ntips, FUN=function(n) rbinom(n=1,size=1,prob=reveal_probs[tip_states[n]]))
input_tip_states = tip_states
input_tip_states[!revealed] = NA

# predict state probabilities P1 and P2
hsp = hsp_binomial(tree, input_tip_states, reveal_probs=reveal_probs, max_STE=0.2)
probs = cbind(hsp$P1,1-hsp$P1)

# pick most likely state as a point estimate
# only accept point estimate if probability is sufficiently high
estimated_tip_states = max.col(probs[1:Ntips,])
estimated_tip_states[probs[cbind(1:Ntips,estimated_tip_states)]<0.8] = NA
cat(sprintf("ML-predicted tip states:\n"))
print(estimated_tip_states)

# calculate fraction of correct predictions
predicted = which((!revealed) & (!is.na(estimated_tip_states)))
if(length(predicted)>0){
  Ncorrect  = sum(tip_states[predicted]==estimated_tip_states[predicted])
  cat(sprintf("%.2g%% of predictions are correct\n",(100.0*Ncorrect)/length(predicted)))
}else{
  cat(sprintf("None of the tip states could be reliably predicted\n"))
}

## End(Not run)

Hidden state prediction via empirical probabilities.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral discrete states of nodes and predict unknown (hidden) states of tips on a tree based on empirical state probabilities across tips. This is a very crude HSP method, and other more sophisticated methods should be preferred (e.g. hsp_mk_model).

Usage

hsp_empirical_probabilities(tree, tip_states, 
                            Nstates=NULL, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

An integer vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree as an integer from 1 to Nstates, where Nstates is the possible number of states (see below). tip_states can include NA to indicate an unknown tip state that is to be predicted.

Nstates

Either NULL, or an integer specifying the number of possible states of the trait. If NULL, then it will be computed based on the maximum non-NA value encountered in tip_states

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

For this function, the trait's states must be represented by integers within 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the total number of possible states. If the states are originally in some other format (e.g. characters or factors), you should map them to a set of integers 1,..,Nstates. You can easily map any set of discrete states to integers using the function map_to_state_space.

Any NA entries in tip_states are interpreted as unknown states. Prior to ancestral state reconstruction, the tree is temporarily prunned, keeping only tips with known state. The function then calculates the empirical state probabilities for each node in the pruned tree, based on the states across tips descending from each node. The state probabilities of tips with unknown state are set to those of the most recent ancestor with reconstructed states, as described by Zaneveld and Thurber (2014).

The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). This function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges x Nstates).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

This function is meant for reconstructing ancestral states in all nodes of a tree as well as predicting the states of tips with an a priory unknown state. If the state of all tips is known and only ancestral state reconstruction is needed, consider using functions such as asr_empirical_probabilities for improved efficiency.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether HSP was successful. If FALSE, some return values may be NULL.

likelihoods

A 2D numeric matrix, listing the probability of each tip and node being in each state. This matrix will have (Ntips+Nnodes) rows and Nstates columns, where Nstates was either explicitly provided as an argument or inferred based on the number of unique values in tip_states (if Nstates was passed as NULL). In the latter case, the column names of this matrix will be the unique values found in tip_states. The rows in this matrix will be in the order in which tips and nodes are indexed in the tree, i.e. the rows 1,..,Ntips store the probabilities for tips, while rows (Ntips+1),..,(Ntips+Nnodes) store the probabilities for nodes. Each row in this matrix will sum up to 1. Note that the return value is named this way for compatibility with other HSP functions.

states

Integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, with values in {1,..,Nstates}, specifying the maximum-likelihood estimate of the state of each tip & node.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

hsp_max_parsimony, hsp_mk_model, map_to_state_space

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a discrete trait
Nstates = 5
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ER", max_rate=0.1)
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states

# print states of first 20 tips
print(tip_states[1:20])

# set half of the tips to unknown state
tip_states[sample.int(Ntips,size=as.integer(Ntips/2),replace=FALSE)] = NA

# reconstruct all tip states via MPR
likelihoods = hsp_empirical_probabilities(tree, tip_states, Nstates)$likelihoods
estimated_tip_states = max.col(likelihoods[1:Ntips,])

# print estimated states of first 20 tips
print(estimated_tip_states[1:20])

## End(Not run)

Hidden state prediction via phylogenetic independent contrasts.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral states of a continuous (numeric) trait for nodes and predict unknown (hidden) states for tips on a tree using phylogenetic independent contrasts.

Usage

hsp_independent_contrasts(tree, tip_states, weighted=TRUE, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree. tip_states can include NA to indicate an unknown tip state that is to be predicted.

weighted

Logical, specifying whether to weight transition costs by the inverted edge lengths during ancestral state reconstruction. This corresponds to the "weighted squared-change parsimony" reconstruction by Maddison (1991) for a Brownian motion model of trait evolution.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

Any NA entries in tip_states are interpreted as unknown (hidden) states to be estimated. Prior to ancestral state reconstruction, the tree is temporarily prunned, keeping only tips with known state. The function then uses a postorder traversal algorithm to calculate the intermediate "X" variables (a state estimate for each node) introduced by Felsenstein (1985) in his phylogenetic independent contrasts method. Note that these are only local estimates, i.e. for each node the estimate is only based on the tip states in the subtree descending from that node (see discussion in Garland and Ives, 2000). The states of tips with hidden state are set to those of the most recent ancestor with reconstructed state, as described by Zaneveld and Thurber (2014).

This function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges). If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. This is the same as setting weighted=FALSE. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include item names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

This function is meant for reconstructing ancestral states in all nodes of a tree as well as predicting the states of tips with an a priory unknown state. If the state of all tips is known and only ancestral state reconstruction is needed, consider using the function asr_independent_contrasts for improved efficiency.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether HSP was successful. If FALSE, some return values may be NULL.

states

A numeric vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, listing the reconstructed state of each tip and node. The entries in this vector will be in the order in which tips and nodes are indexed in tree$edge.

total_sum_of_squared_changes

The total sum of squared changes in tree, minimized by the (optionally weighted) squared-change parsimony algorithm. This is equation 7 in (Maddison, 1991). Note that for the root, phylogenetic independent contrasts is equivalent to Maddison's squared-change parsimony.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. Felsenstein (1985). Phylogenies and the comparative method. The American Naturalist. 125:1-15.

T. Jr. Garland and A. R. Ives (2000). Using the past to predict the present: Confidence intervals for regression equations in phylogenetic comparative methods. The American Naturalist. 155:346-364.

W. P. Maddison (1991). Squared-change parsimony reconstructions of ancestral states for continuous-valued characters on a phylogenetic tree. Systematic Zoology. 40:304-314.

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

asr_squared_change_parsimony hsp_max_parsimony, hsp_mk_model,

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a continuous trait
tip_states = simulate_ou_model(tree, 
                               stationary_mean=0,
                               stationary_std=1,
                               decay_rate=0.001)$tip_states

# print tip states
print(as.vector(tip_states))

# set half of the tips to unknown state
tip_states[sample.int(Ntips,size=as.integer(Ntips/2),replace=FALSE)] = NA

# reconstruct all tip states via weighted PIC
estimated_states = hsp_independent_contrasts(tree, tip_states, weighted=TRUE)$states

# print estimated tip states
print(estimated_states[1:Ntips])

Hidden state prediction via maximum parsimony.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral discrete states of nodes and predict unknown (hidden) states of tips on a tree using maximum parsimony. Transition costs can vary between transitions, and can optionally be weighted by edge length.

Usage

hsp_max_parsimony(tree, tip_states, Nstates=NULL, 
                  transition_costs="all_equal",
                  edge_exponent=0.0, weight_by_scenarios=TRUE, 
                  check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

An integer vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree as an integer from 1 to Nstates, where Nstates is the possible number of states (see below). tip_states can include NA to indicate an unknown tip state that is to be predicted.

Nstates

Either NULL, or an integer specifying the number of possible states of the trait. If NULL, then it will be computed based on the maximum non-NA value encountered in tip_states

transition_costs

Same as for the function asr_max_parsimony.

edge_exponent

Same as for the function asr_max_parsimony.

weight_by_scenarios

Logical, indicating whether to weight each optimal state of a node by the number of optimal maximum-parsimony scenarios in which the node is in that state. If FALSE, then all possible states of a node are weighted equally (i.e. are assigned equal probabilities).

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

For this function, the trait's states must be represented by integers within 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the total number of possible states. If the states are originally in some other format (e.g. characters or factors), you should map them to a set of integers 1,..,Nstates. The order of states (if relevant) should be reflected in their integer representation. For example, if your original states are "small", "medium" and "large" and transition_costs=="sequential", it is advised to represent these states as integers 1,2,3. You can easily map any set of discrete states to integers using the function map_to_state_space.

Any NA entries in tip_states are interpreted as unknown states. Prior to ancestral state reconstruction, the tree is temporarily prunned, keeping only tips with known state. The function then applies Sankoff's (1975) dynamic programming algorithm for ancestral state reconstruction, which determines the smallest number (or least costly if transition costs are uneven) of state changes along edges needed to reproduce the known tip states. The state probabilities of tips with unknown state are set to those of the most recent ancestor with reconstructed states, as described by Zaneveld and Thurber (2014). This function has asymptotic time complexity O(Ntips+Nnodes x Nstates).

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. If edge_exponent is 0, then edge lengths do not influence the result. If edge_exponent!=0, then all edges must have non-zero length. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. None of the input vectors or matrixes need include row or column names; if they do, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

This function is meant for reconstructing ancestral states in all nodes of a tree as well as predicting the states of tips with an a priory unknown state. If the state of all tips is known and only ancestral state reconstruction is needed, consider using the function asr_max_parsimony for improved efficiency.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether HSP was successful. If FALSE, some return values may be NULL.

likelihoods

A 2D numeric matrix, listing the probability of each tip and node being in each state. This matrix will have (Ntips+Nnodes) rows and Nstates columns, where Nstates was either explicitly provided as an argument or inferred based on the number of unique values in tip_states (if Nstates was passed as NULL). In the latter case, the column names of this matrix will be the unique values found in tip_states. The rows in this matrix will be in the order in which tips and nodes are indexed in the tree, i.e. the rows 1,..,Ntips store the probabilities for tips, while rows (Ntips+1),..,(Ntips+Nnodes) store the probabilities for nodes. Each row in this matrix will sum up to 1. Note that the return value is named this way for compatibility with other HSP functions.

states

Integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, with values in {1,..,Nstates}, specifying the maximum-likelihood estimate of the state of each tip & node.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

D. Sankoff (1975). Minimal mutation trees of sequences. SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics. 28:35-42.

J. Felsenstein (2004). Inferring Phylogenies. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts.

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

asr_max_parsimony, asr_mk_model, hsp_mk_model, map_to_state_space

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate random tree
Ntips = 10
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a discrete trait
Nstates = 5
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ER")
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states

# print tip states
print(tip_states)

# set half of the tips to unknown state
tip_states[sample.int(Ntips,size=as.integer(Ntips/2),replace=FALSE)] = NA

# reconstruct all tip states via MPR
likelihoods = hsp_max_parsimony(tree, tip_states, Nstates)$likelihoods
estimated_tip_states = max.col(likelihoods[1:Ntips,])

# print estimated tip states
print(estimated_tip_states)

## End(Not run)

Hidden state prediction with Mk models and rerooting

Description

Reconstruct ancestral states of a discrete trait and predict unknown (hidden) states of tips using a fixed-rates continuous-time Markov model (a.k.a. "Mk model"). This function can fit the model (i.e. estimate the transition matrix) using maximum likelihood, or use a specified transition matrix. The function can optionally calculate marginal ancestral state likelihoods for each node in the tree, using the rerooting method by Yang et al. (1995). A subset of the tips may have completely unknown states; in this case the fitted Markov model is used to predict their state likelihoods based on their most recent reconstructed ancestor, as described by Zaneveld and Thurber (2014). The function can account for biases in which tips have known state (“reveal bias”).

Usage

hsp_mk_model( tree, 
              tip_states, 
              Nstates = NULL, 
              reveal_fractions = NULL,
              tip_priors = NULL, 
              rate_model = "ER", 
              transition_matrix = NULL, 
              include_likelihoods = TRUE,
              root_prior = "empirical", 
              Ntrials = 1, 
              optim_algorithm = "nlminb",
              optim_max_iterations = 200,
              optim_rel_tol = 1e-8,
              store_exponentials = TRUE,
              check_input = TRUE, 
              Nthreads = 1)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

An integer vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree in terms of an integer from 1 to Nstates, where Nstates is the possible number of states (see below). Can also be NULL, in which case tip_priors must not be NULL (see below). tip_states can include NA to indicate an unknown (hidden) tip state that is to be predicted.

Nstates

Either NULL, or an integer specifying the number of possible states of the trait. If Nstates==NULL, then it will be computed based on the maximum non-NA value encountered in tip_states or based on the number of columns in tip_priors (whichever is non-NULL).

reveal_fractions

Either NULL, or a numeric vector of size Nstates, specifying the fraction of tips with revealed (i.e., non-hidden) state, depending on the tip state. That is, reveal_fractions[s] is the probability that a given tip at state s will have known (i.e., non-hidden) state, conditional upon being included in the tree. If the tree only contains a random subset of species (sampled independently of each species' state), then reveal_fractions[s] is the probability of knowing the state of a species (regardless of whether it is included in the tree), if its state is s. This variable can be used to account for biases in which tips have known state, depending on their state. Only the relative ratios among reveal fractions matter, i.e. multiplying reveal_fractions with a constant factor has no effect.

tip_priors

A 2D numeric matrix of size Ntips x Nstates, where Nstates is the possible number of states for the character modelled. Can also be NULL. Each row of this matrix must be a probability vector, i.e. it must only contain non-negative entries and must sum up to 1. The [i,s]-th entry should be the prior probability of tip i being in state s. If you know for certain that tip i is in some state s, you can set the corresponding entry to 1 and all other entries in that row to 0. A row can include NA to indicate that neither the state nor the probability distribution of a state are known for that tip. If for all tips you either know the exact state or have no information at all, you can also use tip_states instead. If tip_priors==NULL, then tip_states must not be NULL (see above).

rate_model

Rate model to be used for fitting the transition rate matrix. Similar to the rate_model option in the function asr_mk_model. See the details of asr_mk_model on the assumptions of each rate_model.

transition_matrix

Either a numeric quadratic matrix of size Nstates x Nstates containing fixed transition rates, or NULL. The [r,c]-th entry in this matrix should store the transition (probability) rate from the state r to state c. Each row in this matrix must have sum zero. If NULL, then the transition rates will be estimated using maximum likelihood, based on the rate_model specified.

include_likelihoods

Boolean, specifying whether to include the marginal state likelihoods for all tips and nodes, as returned variables. Setting this to TRUE can substantially increase computation time. If FALSE, the Mk model is merely fitted, but ancestral states and hidden tip states are not reconstructed.

root_prior

Prior probability distribution of the root's states. Similar to the root_prior option in the function asr_mk_model.

Ntrials

Number of trials (starting points) for fitting the transition matrix. Only relevant if transition_matrix=NULL. A higher number may reduce the risk of landing in a local non-global optimum of the likelihood function, but will increase computation time during fitting.

optim_algorithm

Either "optim" or "nlminb", specifying which optimization algorithm to use for maximum-likelihood estimation of the transition matrix. Only relevant if transition_matrix==NULL.

optim_max_iterations

Maximum number of iterations (per fitting trial) allowed for optimizing the likelihood function.

optim_rel_tol

Relative tolerance (stop criterion) for optimizing the likelihood function.

store_exponentials

Logical, specifying whether to pre-calculate and store exponentials of the transition matrix during calculation of ancestral likelihoods. This may reduce computation time because each exponential is only calculated once, but will use up more memory since all exponentials are stored. Only relevant if include_ancestral_likelihoods is TRUE, otherwise exponentials are never stored.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Nthreads

Number of parallel threads to use for running multiple fitting trials simultaneously. This only makes sense if your computer has multiple cores/CPUs and Ntrials>1, and is only relevant if transition_matrix==NULL.

Details

For this function, the trait's states must be represented by integers within 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the total number of possible states. Note that Nstates can be chosen to be larger than the number of states observed in the tips of the present tree, to account for potential states not yet observed. If the trait's states are originally in some other format (e.g. characters or factors), you should map them to a set of integers 1,..,Nstates. The order of states (if applicable) should be reflected in their integer representation. For example, if your original states are "small", "medium" and "large" and rate_model=="SUEDE", it is advised to represent these states as integers 1,2,3. You can easily map any set of discrete states to integers using the function map_to_state_space.

This function allows the specification of the precise tip states (if these are known) using the vector tip_states. Alternatively, if some tip states are only known in terms of a probability distribution, you can pass these probability distributions using the matrix tip_priors. Note that exactly one of the two arguments, tip_states or tip_priors, must be non-NULL. In either case, the presence of NA in tip_states or in a row of tip_priors is interpreted as an absence of information about the tip's state (i.e. the tip has "hidden state").

Tips must be represented in tip_states or tip_priors in the same order as in tree$tip.label. None of the input vectors or matrixes need include row or column names; if they do, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

This method assumes that the tree is either complete (i.e. includes all species), or that the tree's tips represent a random subset of species that have been sampled independent of their state. The function does not require that tip state knowledge is independent of tip state, provided that the associated biases are known (provided via reveal_fractions). The rerooting method by Yang et al (2015) is used to reconstruct the marginal ancestral state likelihoods for each node by treating the node as a root and calculating its conditional scaled likelihoods. The state likelihoods of tips with hidden states are calculated from those of the most recent ancestor with previously calculated state likelihoods, using the exponentiated transition matrix along the connecting edges (essentially using the rerooting method). Attention: The state likelihoods for tips with known states or with provided priors are not modified, i.e. they are as provided in the input. In other words, for those tips the returned state likelihoods should not be considered as posteriors in a Bayesian sense.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether HSP was successful. If FALSE, some return values may be NULL.

Nstates

Integer, specifying the number of modeled trait states.

transition_matrix

A numeric quadratic matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, containing the transition rates of the Markov model. The [r,c]-th entry is the transition rate from state r to state c. Will be the same as the input transition_matrix, if the latter was not NULL.

loglikelihood

Log-likelihood of the Markov model. If transition_matrix was NULL in the input, then this will be the log-likelihood maximized during fitting.

likelihoods

A 2D numeric matrix, listing the probability of each tip and node being in each state. Only included if include_likelihoods was TRUE. This matrix will have (Ntips+Nnodes) rows and Nstates columns, where Nstates was either explicitly provided as an argument, or inferred from tip_states or tip_priors (whichever was non-NULL). The rows in this matrix will be in the order in which tips and nodes are indexed in the tree, i.e. rows 1,..,Ntips store the probabilities for tips, while rows (Ntips+1),..,(Ntips+Nnodes) store the probabilities for nodes. For example, likelihoods[1,3] will store the probability that tip 1 is in state 3. Each row in this matrix will sum up to 1. Note that for tips with known state or fully provided prior, the likelihoods will be unchanged, i.e. these are not the posteriors in a Bayesian sense.

states

Integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes, with values in {1,..,Nstates}, specifying the maximum-likelihood estimate of the state of each tip & node. Only included if include_likelihoods was TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Z. Yang, S. Kumar and M. Nei (1995). A new method for inference of ancestral nucleotide and amino acid sequences. Genetics. 141:1641-1650.

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

hsp_max_parsimony, hsp_squared_change_parsimony, asr_mk_model, map_to_state_space

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a discrete trait
Nstates = 5
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ER", max_rate=0.01)
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states
cat(sprintf("Simulated ER transition rate=%g\n",Q[1,2]))

# print states for first 20 tips
print(tip_states[1:20])

# set half of the tips to unknown state
# chose tips randomly, regardless of their state (no biases)
tip_states[sample.int(Ntips,size=as.integer(Ntips/2),replace=FALSE)] = NA

# reconstruct all tip states via Mk model max-likelihood
results = hsp_mk_model(tree, tip_states, Nstates, rate_model="ER", Ntrials=2, Nthreads=2)
estimated_tip_states = max.col(results$likelihoods[1:Ntips,])

# print Mk model fitting summary
cat(sprintf("Mk model: log-likelihood=%g\n",results$loglikelihood))
cat(sprintf("Universal (ER) transition rate=%g\n",results$transition_matrix[1,2]))

# print estimated states for first 20 tips
print(estimated_tip_states[1:20])

## End(Not run)

Hidden state prediction based on nearest neighbor.

Description

Predict unknown (hidden) character states of tips on a tree using nearest neighbor matching.

Usage

hsp_nearest_neighbor(tree, tip_states, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

tip_states

A vector of length Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree. Tip states can be any valid data type (e.g., characters, integers, continuous numbers, and so on). NA values denote unknown (hidden) tip states to be predicted.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

For each tip with unknown state, this function seeks the closest tip with known state, in terms of patristic distance. The state of the closest tip is then used as a prediction of the unknown state. In the case of multiple equal matches, the precise outcome is unpredictable (this is unlikely to occur if edge lengths are continuous numbers, but may happen frequently if e.g. edge lengths are all of unit length). This algorithm is arguably one of the crudest methods for predicting character states, so use at your own discretion.

Any NA entries in tip_states are interpreted as unknown states. If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as monofurcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. tip_states need not include names; if names are included, however, they are checked for consistency with the tree's tip labels (if check_input==TRUE).

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether HSP was successful. If FALSE, some return values may be NULL.

states

Vector of length Ntips, listing the known and predicted state for each tip.

nearest_neighbors

Integer vector of length Ntips, listing for each tip the index of the nearest tip with known state. Hence, nearest_neighbors[n] specifies the tip from which the unknown state of tip n was inferred. If tip n had known state, nearest_neighbors[n] will be n.

nearest_distances

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing for each tip the patristic distance to the nearest tip with known state. For tips with known state, distances will be zero.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

hsp_max_parsimony, hsp_mk_model,

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate random tree
Ntips = 20
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a binary trait
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(2, rate_model="ER")
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states

# print tip states
print(tip_states)

# set half of the tips to unknown state
tip_states[sample.int(Ntips,size=as.integer(Ntips/2),replace=FALSE)] = NA

# reconstruct all tip states via nearest neighbor
predicted_states = hsp_nearest_neighbor(tree, tip_states)$states

# print predicted tip states
print(predicted_states)

## End(Not run)

Hidden state prediction via squared-change parsimony.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral states of a continuous (numeric) trait for nodes and predict unknown (hidden) states for tips on a tree using squared-change (or weighted squared-change) parsimony (Maddison 1991).

Usage

hsp_squared_change_parsimony(tree, tip_states, weighted=TRUE, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree. tip_states can include NA to indicate an unknown tip state that is to be predicted.

weighted

Logical, specifying whether to weight transition costs by the inverted edge lengths during ancestral state reconstruction. This corresponds to the "weighted squared-change parsimony" reconstruction by Maddison (1991) for a Brownian motion model of trait evolution.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

Any NA entries in tip_states are interpreted as unknown (hidden) states to be estimated. Prior to ancestral state reconstruction, the tree is temporarily prunned, keeping only tips with known state. The function then uses Maddison's squared-change parsimony algorithm to reconstruct the globally parsimonious state at each node (Maddison 1991). The states of tips with hidden state are set to those of the most recent ancestor with reconstructed state, as described by Zaneveld and Thurber (2014). This function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges). If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. This is the same as setting weighted=FALSE. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include item names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE).

This function is meant for reconstructing ancestral states in all nodes of a tree as well as predicting the states of tips with an a priory unknown state. If the state of all tips is known and only ancestral state reconstruction is needed, consider using the function asr_squared_change_parsimony for improved efficiency.

Value

A list with the following elements:

states

A numeric vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, listing the reconstructed state of each tip and node. The entries in this vector will be in the order in which tips and nodes are indexed in tree$edge.

total_sum_of_squared_changes

The total sum of squared changes, minimized by the (optionally weighted) squared-change parsimony algorithm. This is equation 7 in (Maddison, 1991).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

W. P. Maddison (1991). Squared-change parsimony reconstructions of ancestral states for continuous-valued characters on a phylogenetic tree. Systematic Zoology. 40:304-314.

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

asr_squared_change_parsimony hsp_max_parsimony, hsp_mk_model, map_to_state_space

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a continuous trait
tip_states = simulate_ou_model(tree, 
                               stationary_mean=0,
                               stationary_std=1,
                               decay_rate=0.001)$tip_states

# print tip states
print(tip_states)

# set half of the tips to unknown state
tip_states[sample.int(Ntips,size=as.integer(Ntips/2),replace=FALSE)] = NA

# reconstruct all tip states via weighted SCP
estimated_states = hsp_squared_change_parsimony(tree, tip_states, weighted=TRUE)$states

# print estimated tip states
print(estimated_states[1:Ntips])

Hidden state prediction via subtree averaging.

Description

Reconstruct ancestral states of a continuous (numeric) trait for nodes and predict unknown (hidden) states for tips on a tree using subtree averaging.

Usage

hsp_subtree_averaging(tree, tip_states, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

tip_states

A numeric vector of size Ntips, specifying the state of each tip in the tree. tip_states can include NA to indicate an unknown tip state that is to be predicted.

check_input

Logical, specifying whether to perform some basic checks on the validity of the input data. If you are certain that your input data are valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation.

Details

Any NA entries in tip_states are interpreted as unknown (hidden) states to be estimated. For each node the reconstructed state is set to the arithmetic average state of all tips with known state and descending from that node. For each tip with hidden state and each node whose descending tips all have hidden states, the state is set to the state of the closest ancestral node with known or reconstructed state, while traversing from root to tips (Zaneveld and Thurber 2014). Note that reconstructed node states are only local estimates, i.e. for each node the estimate is only based on the tip states in the subtree descending from that node.

Tips must be represented in tip_states in the same order as in tree$tip.label. The vector tip_states need not include item names; if it does, however, they are checked for consistency (if check_input==TRUE). This function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges).

This function is meant for reconstructing ancestral states in all nodes of a tree as well as predicting the states of tips with an a priory unknown state. If the state of all tips is known and only ancestral state reconstruction is needed, consider using the function asr_subtree_averaging for improved efficiency.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether HSP was successful.

states

A numeric vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, listing the reconstructed state of each tip and node. The entries in this vector will be in the order in which tips and nodes are indexed in tree$edge.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

J. R. Zaneveld and R. L. V. Thurber (2014). Hidden state prediction: A modification of classic ancestral state reconstruction algorithms helps unravel complex symbioses. Frontiers in Microbiology. 5:431.

See Also

asr_subtree_averaging, hsp_squared_change_parsimony

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# simulate a continuous trait
tip_states = simulate_ou_model(tree,
                               stationary_mean=0,
                               stationary_std=1,
                               decay_rate=0.001)$tip_states

# print tip states
print(as.vector(tip_states))

# set half of the tips to unknown state
tip_states[sample.int(Ntips,size=as.integer(Ntips/2),replace=FALSE)] = NA

# reconstruct all tip states via subtree averaging
estimated_states = hsp_subtree_averaging(tree, tip_states)$states

# print estimated tip states
print(estimated_states[1:Ntips])

Determine if a tree is bifurcating.

Description

This function determines if a tree is strictly bifurcating, i.e. each node has exactly 2 children. If a tree has monofurcations or multifurcations, this function returns FALSE.

Usage

is_bifurcating(tree)

Arguments

tree

A tree of class "phylo".

Details

This functions accepts rooted and unrooted trees, that may include monofurcations, bifurcations and multifurcations.

Value

A logical, indicating whether the input tree is strictly bifurcating.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 10
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# check if the tree is bifurcating (as expected)
is_bifurcating(tree)

Determine if a set of tips is monophyletic.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a set of focal tips, this function determines whether the tips form a monophyletic group.

Usage

is_monophyletic(tree, focal_tips, check_input=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

focal_tips

Either an integer vector or a character vector, listing the tips to be checked for monophyly. If an integer vector, it should list tip indices (i.e. from 1 to Ntips). If a character vector, it should list tip names; in that case tree$tip.label must exist.

check_input

Logical, whether to perform basic validations of the input data. If you know for certain that your input is valid, you can set this to FALSE to reduce computation time.

Details

This function first finds the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of the focal tips, and then checks if all tips descending from that MRCA fall within the focal tip set.

Value

A logical, indicating whether the focal tips form a monophyletic set.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_mrca_of_set

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 100
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# pick a random subset of focal tips
focal_tips = which(sample.int(2,size=Ntips,replace=TRUE)==1)

# check if focal tips form a monophyletic group
is_monophyletic(tree, focal_tips)

Join two rooted trees.

Description

Given two rooted phylogenetic trees, place one tree (tree2) onto an edge of the other tree (tree1), so that tree2 becomes a monophyletic group of the final joined tree. As a special case, this function can join two trees at their roots, i.e. so that both are disjoint monophyletic clades of the final tree, splitting at the new root.

Usage

join_rooted_trees(  tree1, 
                    tree2,
                    target_edge1,
                    target_edge_length1,
                    root_edge_length2)

Arguments

tree1

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

tree2

A rooted tree of class "phylo". This tree will become a monophyletic subclade of the final joined tree.

target_edge1

Integer, edge index in tree1 onto which tree2 is to be joined. If <=0, then this refers to the hypothetical edge leading into the root of tree1, in which case both trees will become disjoint monophyletic subclades of the final joined tree.

target_edge_length1

Numeric, length of the edge segment in tree1 from the joining-point to the next child node, i.e. how far from the child of target_edge1 should the joining occur. If target_edge1<=0, then target_edge_length1 is the distance of the root of tree1 from the final joined tree's root.

root_edge_length2

Numeric, length of the edge leading into the root of tree2, i.e. the distance from the joining point to the root of tree2.

Details

The input trees may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). If any of the input trees does not have edge lengths (i.e., edge.length is NULL), then its edge lengths are assumed to all be 1.

The tips of the two input trees will become the tips of the final joined tree. The nodes of the two input trees will become nodes of the final joined tree, however one additional node will be added at the joining point. Tip labels and node labels (if available) of the joined tree are inheritted from the two input trees.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tree

A new rooted tree of class "phylo", representing the joined tree.

clade1_to_clade

Integer vector of length Ntips1+Nnodes1, mapping tip/node indices of the input tree1 to tip/node indices in the final joined tree.

clade2_to_clade

Integer vector of length Ntips2+Nnodes2, mapping tip/node indices of the input tree2 to tip/node indices in the final joined tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

split_tree_at_height

Examples

# generate two random trees, include tip & node names
tree1 = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                             max_tips=10,
                             tip_basename="tip1.",
                             node_basename="node1.")$tree
tree2 = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                             max_tips=5,
                             tip_basename="tip2.",
                             node_basename="node2.")$tree

# join trees at their roots
# each subtree's root should have distance 1 from the new root
joined_tree = join_rooted_trees(tree1, 
                                tree2,
                                target_edge1=0,
                                target_edge_length1=1,
                                root_edge_length2=1)$tree

Galculate the log-likelihood of a homogenous birth-death model.

Description

Given a rooted ultrametric timetree, and a homogenous birth-death (HBD) model, i.e., with speciation rate λ\lambda, extinction rate μ\mu and sampling fraction ρ\rho, calculate the likelihood of the tree under the model. The speciation and extinction rates may be time-dependent. “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates (in the literature this is sometimes referred to simply as “birth-death model”). Alternatively to λ\lambda and μ\mu, the likelihood may also be calculated based on the pulled diversification rate (PDR; Louca et al. 2018) and the product ρ(0)λ(0)\rho(0)\cdot\lambda(0), or based on the pulled speciation rate (PSR). In either case, the time-profiles of λ\lambda, μ\mu, the PDR or the PSR are specified as piecewise polynomially functions (splines), defined on a discrete grid of ages.

Usage

loglikelihood_hbd(tree, 
                  oldest_age        = NULL,
                  age0              = 0,
                  rho0              = NULL,
                  rholambda0        = NULL,
                  age_grid          = NULL,
                  lambda            = NULL,
                  mu                = NULL,
                  PDR               = NULL,
                  PSR               = NULL,
                  splines_degree    = 1,
                  condition         = "auto",
                  max_model_runtime = -1,
                  relative_dt       = 1e-3)

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric tree of class "phylo".

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to consider when calculating the likelihood. If this is equal to or greater than the root age, then oldest_age is taken as the stem age, and the classical formula by Morlon et al. (2011) is used. If oldest_age is less than the root age, the tree is split into multiple subtrees at that age by treating every edge crossing that age as the stem of a subtree, and each subtree is considered an independent realization of the HBD model stemming at that age. This can be useful for avoiding points in the tree close to the root, where estimation uncertainty is generally higher. If oldest_age==NULL, it is automatically set to the root age.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the youngest age (time before present) to consider for fitting, and with respect to which rho and rholambda0 are defined. If age0>0, then rho refers to the sampling fraction at age age0, and rholambda0 to the product between rho and the speciation rate at age age0. See below for more details.

rho0

Numeric between 0 (exclusive) and 1 (inclusive), specifying the sampling fraction of the tree at age0, i.e. the fraction of lineages extant at age0 that are included in the tree. Note that if rho0<1rho0<1, lineages extant at age0 are assumed to have been sampled randomly at equal probabilities. Can also be NULL, in which case rholambda0 and PDR (see below) must be provided.

rholambda0

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the product of the sampling fraction and the speciation rateat age0, units 1/time. Can be NULL, in which case rarefaction, lambda and mu must be provided.

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing discrete ages (time before present) on which either λ\lambda and μ\mu, or the PDR, are specified. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and must cover at least the full considered age interval (from age0 to oldest_age). Can also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case the speciation rate, extinction rate and PDR are assumed to be time-independent.

lambda

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing speciation rates (in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. Speciation rates should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). If NULL, then either PDR and rholambda0, or PSR alone, must be provided.

mu

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing extinction rates (in units 1/time)at the ages listed in age_grid. Extinction rates should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). If NULL, then PDR and rholambda0, or PSR alone, must be provided.

PDR

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing pulled diversification rates (in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. PDRs can be negative or positive, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). If NULL, then either lambda and mu, or PSR alone, must be provided.

PSR

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing pulled speciation rates (in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. PSRs should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). If NULL, then either lambda and mu, or PDR and rholambda0, must be provided.

splines_degree

Integer, either 0,1,2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the provided lambda, mu, PDR and PSR (whichever applicable) between grid points in age_grid. For example, if splines_degree==1, then the provided lambda, mu, PDR and PSR are interpreted as piecewise-linear curves; if splines_degree==2 they are interpreted as quadratic splines; if splines_degree==3 they are interpreted as cubic splines. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on.

condition

Character, either "crown", "stem", "auto" or "none" (the last one is only available if lambda and mu are given), specifying on what to condition the likelihood. If "crown", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the two daughter lineages branching off at the root. If "stem", the likelihood is conditioned on the survival of the stem lineage. Note that "crown" really only makes sense when oldest_age is equal to the root age, while "stem" is recommended if oldest_age differs from the root age. "none" is usually not recommended and is only available when lambda and mu are provided. If "auto", the condition is chosen according to the recommendations mentioned earlier.

max_model_runtime

Numeric, maximum allowed runtime (in seconds) for evaluating the likelihood. If the likelihood calculation takes longer than this (appoximate) threshold, it halts and returns with an error. If negative (default), this option is ignored.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

Details

If age0>0, the input tree is essentially trimmed at age0 (omitting anything younger than age0), and the is likelihood calculated for the trimmed tree while shifting time appropriately. In that case, rho0 is interpreted as the sampling fraction at age0, i.e. the fraction of lineages extant at age0 that are repreented in the tree. Similarly, rholambda0 is the product of the sampling fraction and λ\lambda at age0.

This function supports three alternative parameterizations of HBD models, either using the speciation and extinction rates and sampling fraction (λ\lambda, μ\mu and ρ(τo)\rho(\tau_o) (for some arbitrary age τo\tau_o), or using the pulled diversification rate (PDR) and the product ρ(τo)λ(τo\rho(\tau_o)\cdot\lambda(\tau_o (sampling fraction times speciation rate at τo\tau_o), or using the pulled speciation rate (PSR). The latter two options should be interpreted as a parameterization of congruence classes, i.e. sets of models that have the same likelihood, rather than specific models, since multiple combinations of λ\lambda, μ\mu and ρ(τo)\rho(\tau_o) can have identical PDRs, ρ(τo)λ(τo)\rho(\tau_o)\cdot\lambda(\tau_o) and PSRs (Louca and Pennell, in review).

For large trees the asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nips). The tree may include monofurcations as well as multifurcations, and the likelihood formula accounts for those (i.e., as if monofurcations were omitted and multifurcations were expanded into bifurcations).

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the calculation was successful. If FALSE, then the returned list includes an additional 'error' element (character) containing a description of the error; all other return variables may be undefined.

loglikelihood

Numeric. If success==TRUE, this will be the natural logarithm of the likelihood of the tree under the given model.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

H. Morlon, T. L. Parsons, J. B. Plotkin (2011). Reconciling molecular phylogenies with the fossil record. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108:16327-16332.

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (in review as of 2019)

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd

fit_hbd_model_parametric

fit_hbd_model_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid

fit_hbd_pdr_parametric

Examples

# generate a random tree with constant rates
Ntips  = 100
params = list(birth_rate_factor=1, death_rate_factor=0.2, rarefaction=0.5)
tree   = generate_random_tree(params, max_tips=Ntips, coalescent=TRUE)$tree

# get the loglikelihood for an HBD model with the same parameters that generated the tree
# in particular, assuming time-independent speciation & extinction rates
LL = loglikelihood_hbd( tree, 
                        rho0      = params$rarefaction, 
                        age_grid  = NULL, # assume time-independent rates
                        lambda    = params$birth_rate_factor,
                        mu        = params$death_rate_factor)
if(LL$success){
  cat(sprintf("Loglikelihood for constant-rates model = %g\n",LL$loglikelihood))
}

# get the likelihood for a model with exponentially decreasing (in forward time) lambda & mu
beta      = 0.01 # exponential decay rate of lambda over time
age_grid  = seq(from=0, to=100, by=0.1) # choose a sufficiently fine age grid
lambda    = 1*exp(beta*age_grid) # define lambda on the age grid
mu        = 0.2*lambda # assume similarly shaped but smaller mu
LL = loglikelihood_hbd( tree, 
                        rho0      = params$rarefaction, 
                        age_grid  = age_grid,
                        lambda    = lambda,
                        mu        = mu)
if(LL$success){
  cat(sprintf("Loglikelihood for exponential-rates model = %g\n",LL$loglikelihood))
}

Map states of a discrete trait to integers.

Description

Given a list of states (e.g., for each tip in a tree), map the unique states to integers 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the number of possible states. This function can be used to translate states that are originally represented by characters or factors, into integer states as required by ancestral state reconstruction and hidden state prediction functions in this package.

Usage

map_to_state_space(raw_states, fill_gaps=FALSE, 
                   sort_order="natural")

Arguments

raw_states

A vector of values (states), each of which can be converted to a character. This vector can include the same value multiple times, for example if values represent the trait's states for tips in a tree. The vector may also include NA, for example if they represent unknown states for some tree tips. NAs are omitted from the state space.

fill_gaps

Logical. If TRUE, then states are converted to integers using as.integer(as.character()), and then all missing intermediate integer values are included as additional possible states. For example, if raw_states contained the values 2,4,6, then 3 and 5 are assumed to also be possible states.

sort_order

Character, specifying the order in which raw_states should be mapped to ascending integers. Either "natural" or "alphabetical". If "natural", numerical parts of characters are sorted numerically, e.g. as in "3"<"a2"<"a12"<"b1".

Details

Several ancestral state reconstruction and hidden state prediction algorithms in the castor package (e.g., asr_max_parsimony) require that the focal trait's states are represented by integer indices within 1,..,Nstates. These indices are then associated, afor example, with column and row indices in the transition cost matrix (in the case of maximum parsimony reconstruction) or with column indices in the returned matrix containing marginal ancestral state probabilities (e.g., in asr_mk_model). The function map_to_state_space can be used to conveniently convert a set of discrete states into integers, for use with the aforementioned algorithms.

Value

A list with the following elements:

Nstates

Integer. Number of possible states for the trait, based on the unique values encountered in raw_states (after conversion to characters). This may be larger than the number of unique values in raw_states, if fill_gaps was set to TRUE.

state_names

Character vector of size Nstates, storing the original name (character version) of each unique state. For example, if raw_states was c("b1","3","a12","a2","b1","a2", NA) and sort_order=="natural", then Nstates will be 4 and state_names will be c("3","a2","a12","b1").

state_values

A numeric vector of size Nstates, providing the numerical value for each unique state. For example, the states "3","a2","4.5" will be mapped to the numeric values 3, NA, 4.5. Note that this may not always be meaningful, depending on the biological interpretation of the states.

mapped_states

Integer vector of size equal to length(raw_states), listing the integer representation of each value in raw_states. May also include NA, at those locations where raw_states was NA.

name2index

An integer vector of size Nstates, with names(name2index) set to state_names. This vector can be used to map any new list of states (in character format) to their integer representation. In particular, name2index[as.character(raw_states)] is equal to mapped_states.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate a sequence of random states
unique_states = c("b","c","a")
raw_states = unique_states[sample.int(3,size=10,replace=TRUE)]

# map to integer state space
mapping = map_to_state_space(raw_states)

cat(sprintf("Checking that original unique states is the same as the one inferred:\n"))
print(unique_states)
print(mapping$state_names)

cat(sprintf("Checking reversibility of mapping:\n"))
print(raw_states)
print(mapping$state_names[mapping$mapped_states])

Compute the expected absolute change of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Description

Given a scalar Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process at stationarity, compute the expected absolute net change over a specific time interval. In other words, if X(t)X(t) is the process at time tt, compute the conditional expectation of X(t)X(0)|X(t)-X(0)| given that X(0)X(0) is randomly drawn from the stationary distribution. This quantity may be used as a measure for the speed at which a continuous trait evolves over time.

Usage

mean_abs_change_scalar_ou(stationary_mean,
                          stationary_std,
                          decay_rate,
                          delta,
                          rel_error = 0.001,
                          Nsamples = NULL)

Arguments

stationary_mean

Numeric, the stationary mean of the OU process, i.e., its equilibrium (μ\mu).

stationary_std

Positive numeric, the stationary standard deviation of the OU process. Note that this is σ/2λ\sigma/\sqrt{2\lambda}, where σ\sigma is the volatility.

decay_rate

Positive numeric, the decay rate or "rubber band" parameter of the OU process (λ\lambda).

delta

Positive numeric, the time step for which to compute the expected absolute change.

rel_error

Positive numeric, the relative tolerable standard estimation error (relative to the true mean absolute displacement).

Nsamples

Integer, number of Monte Carlo samples to use for estimation. If NULL, this is determined automatically based on the desired accuracy (rel_error).

Details

The scalar OU process is a continuous-time stochastic process that satisfies the following stochastic differential equation:

dX=λ(μX) dt+σ dW,dX = \lambda\cdot(\mu-X)\ dt + \sigma\ dW,

where WW is a Wiener process (aka. "standard Brownian Motion"), μ\mu is the equilibrium, σ\sigma is the volatility and λ\lambda is the decay rate. The OU process is commonly used to model the evolution of a continuous trait over time. The decay rate λ\lambda alone is not a proper measure for how fast a trait changes over time (despite being erroneously used for this purpose in some sudies), as it only measures how fast the trait tends to revert to μ\mu when it is far away from μ\mu. Similarly, the volatility σ\sigma alone is not a proper measure of evolutionary rate, because it only describes how fast a trait changes when it is very close to the equilibrium μ\mu, where the tendency to revert is negligible and the process behaves approximately as a Brownian Motion.

This function uses Monte Carlo integration to estimate the expected absolute change, by repeatedly sampling start values X(0)X(0) from the OU's stationary distribution, computing the conditional expected absolute change given the sampled start value, and then averaging those conditional expectations.

Value

A non-negative numeric, specifying the expected absolute change of the OU process.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

simulate_ou_model

Examples

# compute the expected absolute change of an OU process after 10 time units
expected_abs_change = mean_abs_change_scalar_ou(stationary_mean=5, 
                                                stationary_std=1,
                                                decay_rate=0.1,
                                                delta=10)

Merge specific nodes into multifurcations.

Description

Given a rooted tree, merge one or more nodes “upwards” into their parent nodes, thus effectively generating multifurcations. Multiple generations of nodes (i.e., successive branching points) can be merged into a single "absorbing ancestor".

Usage

merge_nodes_to_multifurcations( tree, 
                                nodes_to_merge,
                                merge_with_parents  = FALSE,
                                keep_ancestral_ages = FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

nodes_to_merge

Integer vector or character vector, listing nodes in the tree that should be merged with their parents (if merge_with_parents=TRUE) or with their children (if merge_with_parents=FALSE). If an integer vector, it must contain values in 1,..,Nnodes. If a character vector, it must list node labels, and the tree itself must also include node labels.

merge_with_parents

Logical, specifying whether the nodes listed in nodes_to_merge should be merged with their parents. If FALSE, the specified nodes will be merged with their children (whenever these are not tips).

keep_ancestral_ages

Logical, specifying whether the generated multifurcations should have the same age as the absorbing ancestor. If FALSE, then the age of a multifurcation will be the average of the absorbing ancestor's age and the ages of its merged child nodes (but constrained from below by the ages of non-merged descendants to avoid negative edge lengths). If TRUE, then the ages of multifurcations will be biased towards the root, since their age will be that of the absorbing ancestor.

Details

All tips in the input tree are kept and retain their original indices, however the returned tree will include fewer nodes and edges. Edge and node indices may change. When a node is merged into its parent, the incoming edge is lost, and the parent's age remains unchanged.

Nodes are merged in order from root to tips. Hence, if a node B is merged into ("absorbed by") its parent node A, and child node C is merged into node B, then effectively C ends up merged into node A (node A is the "absorbing ancestor").

If tree$edge.length is missing, then all edges in the input tree are assumed to have length 1.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tree

A new tree of class "phylo". The number of nodes in this tree, Nnodes_new, will generally be lower than of the input tree.

new2old_node

Integer vector of length Nnodes_new, mapping node indices in the new tree to node indices in the old tree. Note that nodes merged with their parents are not represented in this list.

old2new_node

Integer vector of length Nnodes, mapping node indices in the old tree to node indices in the new tree. Nodes merged with their parents (and thus missing from the new tree) will have value 0.

Nnodes_removed

Integer. Number of nodes removed from the tree, due to being merged into their parents.

Nedges_removed

Integer. Number of edges removed from the tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

multifurcations_to_bifurcations, collapse_monofurcations

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1), max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# merge a few nodes with their parents,
# thus obtaining a multifurcating tree
nodes_to_merge = c(1,3,4)
new_tree = merge_nodes_to_multifurcations(tree, nodes_to_merge)$tree

# print summary of old and new tree
cat(sprintf("Old tree has %d nodes\n",tree$Nnode))
cat(sprintf("New tree has %d nodes\n",new_tree$Nnode))

Eliminate short edges in a tree by merging nodes into multifurcations.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and an edge length threshold, merge nodes/tips into multifurcations when their incoming edges are shorter than the threshold.

Usage

merge_short_edges(tree, 
                  edge_length_epsilon	= 0,
                  force_keep_tips     = TRUE,
                  new_tip_prefix      = "ex.node.tip.")

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

edge_length_epsilon

Non-negative numeric, specifying the maximum edge length for an edge to be considered “short” and thus to be eliminated. Typically 0 or some small positive number.

force_keep_tips

Logical. If TRUE, then tips are always kept, even if their incoming edges are shorter than edge_length_epsilon. If FALSE, then tips with short incoming edges are removed from the tree; in that case some nodes may become tips.

new_tip_prefix

Character or NULL, specifying the prefix to use for new tip labels stemming from nodes. Only relevant if force_keep_tips==FALSE. If NULL, then labels of tips stemming from nodes will be the node labels from the original tree (in this case the original tree should include node labels).

Details

The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Whenever a short edge is eliminated, the edges originating from its child are elongated according to the short edge's length. The corresponding grand-children become children of the short edge's parent. Short edges are eliminated in a depth-first-search manner, i.e. traversing from the root to the tips.

Note that existing monofurcations are retained. If force_keep_tips==FALSE, then new monofurcations may also be introduced due to tips being removed.

This function is conceptually similar to the function ape::di2multi.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tree

A new rooted tree of class "phylo", containing the (potentially multifurcating) tree.

new2old_clade

Integer vector of length equal to the number of tips+nodes in the new tree, with values in 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes, mapping tip/node indices of the new tree to tip/node indices in the original tree.

new2old_edge

Integer vector of length equal to the number of edges in the new tree, with values in 1,..,Nedges, mapping edge indices of the new tree to edge indices in the original tree.

Nedges_removed

Integer. Number of edges that have been eliminated.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

multifurcations_to_bifurcations

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# set some edge lengths to zero
tree$edge.length[sample.int(n=Ntips, size=10, replace=FALSE)] = 0

# print number of edges
cat(sprintf("Original tree has %d edges\n",nrow(tree$edge)))

# eliminate any edges of length zero
merged = merge_short_edges(tree, edge_length_epsilon=0)$tree

# print number of edges
cat(sprintf("New tree has %d edges\n",nrow(merged$edge)))

Check if a birth-death model adequately explains a timetree.

Description

Given a rooted ultrametric timetree and a homogenous birth-death model, check if the model adequately explains various aspects of the tree, such as the branch length and node age distributions and other test statistics. The function uses bootstrapping to simulate multiple hypothetical trees according to the model and then compares the distribution of those trees to the original tree. This function may be used to quantify the "goodness of fit" of a birth-death model to a timetree.

Usage

model_adequacy_hbd( tree,
                    models,
                    splines_degree  = 1,
                    extrapolate     = FALSE,
                    Nbootstraps     = 1000,
                    Nthreads        = 1)

Arguments

tree

A rooted ultrametric timetree of class "phylo".

models

Either a single HBD model or a list of HBD models, specifying the pool of models from which to randomly draw bootstraps. Every model should itself be a named list with some or all of the following elements:

  • ages: Numeric vector, specifying discrete ages (times before present) in ascending order, on which the pulled speciation rate will be specified. Age increases from tips to root; the youngest tip in the input tree has age 0. The age grid must cover the present-day (age 0) and the root

  • PSR: Numeric vector of size NG, listing the pulled speciation rate (PSR) of the HBD model at the corresponding ages. Between grid points, the PSR is assumed to either be constant (if splines_degree=0), or linearly (if splines_degree=1) or quadratically (if splines_degree=2) or cubically (if splines_degree=3). To calculate the PSR of an HBD model based on the speciation and extinction rate, see simulate_deterministic_hbd.

splines_degree

Integer, one of 0, 1, 2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the PSR between age-grid points. For example, splines_degree=0 means piecewise constant, splines_degree=1 means piecewise linear and so on.

extrapolate

Logical, specifying whether to extrapolate the model variables λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa (as constants) beyond the provided age grid all the way to stem_age and end_age if needed.

Nbootstraps

Integer, the number of bootstraps (simulations) to perform for calculating statistical significances. A larger number will increase the accuracy of estimated statistical significances.

Nthreads

Integer, number of parallel threads to use for bootstrapping. Note that on Windows machines this option is ignored.

Details

In addition to model selection, the adequacy of any chosen model should also be assessed in absolute terms, i.e. not just relative to other competing models (after all, all considered models might be bad). This function essentially determines how probable it is for hypothetical trees generated by a candidate model to resemble the tree at hand, in terms of various test statistics (such as the historically popular "gamma" statistic, or the Colless tree imbalance). In particular, the function uses a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to check whether the probability distributions of edge lengths and node ages in the tree resemble those expected under the model. All statistical significances are calculated using bootstrapping, i.e. by simulating trees from the provided model with the same number of tips and the same root age as the original tree.

Note that even if an HBD model appears to adequately explain a given timetree, this does not mean that the model even approximately resembles the true diversification history (i.e., the true speciation and extinction rates) that generated the tree (Louca and Pennell 2020). Hence, it is generally more appropriate to say that a given model "congruence class" (or PSR) rather than a specific model (speciation rate, extinction rate, and sampling fraction) explains the tree.

This function requires that the HBD model (or more precisely, its congruence class) be defined in terms of the PSR. If your model is defined in terms of speciation/extinction rates and a sampling fraction, or if your model's congruence class is defined in terms of the pulled diversification rate (PDR) and the product ρλo\rho\lambda_o, then you can use simulate_deterministic_hbd to first calculate the corresponding PSR.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the model evaluation was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined. Note that success does not say whether the model explains the tree, but rather whether the computation was performed without errors.

Nbootstraps

Integer, the number of bootstraps used.

tree_gamma

Numeric, gamma statistic (Pybus and Harvey 2000) of the original tree.

bootstrap_mean_gamma

Numeric, mean gamma statistic across all bootstrap trees.

bootstrap_std_gamma

Numeric, standard deviation of the gamma statistic across all bootstrap trees.

Pgamma

Numeric, two-sided statistical significance of the tree's gamma statistic under the provided null model, i.e. the probability that abs(bootstrap_mean_gamma-tree_gamma) would be as large as observed.

RESgamma

Numeric, relative effect size of the tree's gamma statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_gamma-bootstrap_mean_gamma)/abs(bootstrap_mean_gamma).

SESgamma

Numeric, standardized effect size of the tree's gamma statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_gamma-bootstrap_mean_gamma)/bootstrap_std_gamma.

tree_Colless

Numeric, Colless imbalance statistic (Shao and Sokal, 1990) of the original tree.

bootstrap_mean_Colless

Numeric, mean Colless statistic across all bootstrap trees.

bootstrap_std_Colless

Numeric, standard deviation of the Colless statistic across all bootstrap trees.

PColless

Numeric, two-sided statistical significance of the tree's Colless statistic under the provided null model, i.e. the probability that abs(bootstrap_mean_Colless-tree_Colless) would be as large as observed.

RESColless

Numeric, relative effect size of the tree's Colless statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_Colless-bootstrap_mean_Colless)/abs(bootstrap_mean_Colless).

SESColless

Numeric, standardized effect size of the tree's Colless statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_Colless-bootstrap_mean_Colless)/bootstrap_std_Colless.

tree_Sackin

Numeric, Sackin statistic (Sackin, 1972) of the original tree.

bootstrap_mean_Sackin

Numeric, mean Sackin statistic across all bootstrap trees.

bootstrap_std_Sackin

Numeric, standard deviation of the Sackin statistic across all bootstrap trees.

PSackin

Numeric, two-sided statistical significance of the tree's Sackin statistic under the provided null model, i.e. the probability that abs(bootstrap_mean_Sackin-tree_Sackin) would be as large as observed.

RESSackin

Numeric, relative effect size of the tree's Sackin statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_Sackin-bootstrap_mean_Sackin)/abs(bootstrap_mean_Sackin).

SESSackin

Numeric, standardized effect size of the tree's Sackin statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_Sackin-bootstrap_mean_Sackin)/bootstrap_std_Sackin.

tree_Blum

Numeric, Blum statistic (Blum and Francois, 2006) of the original tree.

bootstrap_mean_Blum

Numeric, mean Blum statistic across all bootstrap trees.

bootstrap_std_Blum

Numeric, standard deviation of the Blum statistic across all bootstrap trees.

PBlum

Numeric, two-sided statistical significance of the tree's Blum statistic under the provided null model, i.e. the probability that abs(bootstrap_mean_Blum-tree_Blum) would be as large as observed.

RESBlum

Numeric, relative effect size of the tree's Blum statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_Blum-bootstrap_mean_Blum)/abs(bootstrap_mean_Blum).

SESBlum

Numeric, standardized effect size of the tree's Blum statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_Blum-bootstrap_mean_Blum)/bootstrap_std_Blum.

tree_edgeKS

Numeric, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic of the original tree's edge lengths, i.e. the estimated maximum difference between the tree's and the model's (estimated) cumulative distribution function of edge lengths.

bootstrap_mean_edgeKS

Numeric, mean KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' edge lengths.

bootstrap_std_edgeKS

Numeric, standard deviation of the KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' edge lengths.

PedgeKS

Numeric, the one-sided statistical significance of the tree's edge-length KS statistic, i.e. the probability that the KS statistic of any tree generated by the model would be larger than the original tree's KS statistic. A low value means that the probability distribution of edge lengths in the original tree differs strongly from that expected based on the model.

RESedgeKS

Numeric, relative effect size of the tree's edge-length KS statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_edgeKS-bootstrap_mean_edgeKS)/abs(bootstrap_mean_edgeKS).

SESedgeKS

Numeric, standardized effect size of the tree's edge-length KS statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_edgeKS-bootstrap_mean_edgeKS)/bootstrap_std_edgeKS.

tree_nodeKS

Numeric, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic of the original tree's node ages (divergence times), i.e. the estimated maximum difference between the tree's and the model's (estimated) cumulative distribution function of node ages.

bootstrap_mean_nodeKS

Numeric, mean KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' node ages.

bootstrap_std_nodeKS

Numeric, standard deviation of the KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' node ages.

PnodeKS

Numeric, the one-sided statistical significance of the tree's node-age KS statistic, i.e. the probability that the KS statistic of any tree generated by the model would be larger than the original tree's KS statistic. A low value means that the probability distribution of node ages in the original tree differs strongly from that expected based on the model.

RESnodeKS

Numeric, relative effect size of the tree's node-age KS statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_nodeKS-bootstrap_mean_nodeKS)/abs(bootstrap_mean_nodeKS).

SESnodeKS

Numeric, standardized effect size of the tree's node-age KS statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_nodeKS-bootstrap_mean_nodeKS)/bootstrap_std_nodeKS.

tree_sizeKS

Numeric, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic of the original tree's node sizes (number of descending tips per node), i.e. the estimated maximum difference between the tree's and the model's (estimated) cumulative distribution function of node sizes.

bootstrap_mean_sizeKS

Numeric, mean KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' node sizes.

bootstrap_std_sizeKS

Numeric, standard deviation of the KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' node sizes.

PsizeKS

Numeric, the one-sided statistical significance of the tree's node-size KS statistic, i.e. the probability that the KS statistic of any tree generated by the model would be larger than the original tree's KS statistic. A low value means that the probability distribution of node sizes in the original tree differs strongly from that expected based on the model.

RESsizeKS

Numeric, relative effect size of the tree's node-size KS statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_sizeKS-bootstrap_mean_sizeKS)/abs(bootstrap_mean_sizeKS).

SESsizeKS

Numeric, standardized effect size of the tree's node-size KS statistic compared to the provided null model, i.e. (tree_sizeKS-bootstrap_mean_sizeKS)/bootstrap_std_sizeKS.

statistical_tests

Data frame, listing the above statistical test results in a more compact format (one test statistic per row).

LTT_ages

Numeric vector, listing ages (time before present) on which the tree's LTT will be defined.

tree_LTT

Numeric vector of the same length as LTT_ages, listing the number of lineages in the tree at every age in LTT_ages.

bootstrap_LTT_CI

Named list containing the elements means, medians, CI50lower, CI50upper, CI95lower and CI95upper. Each of these elements is a numeric vector of length equal to LTT_ages, listing the mean or a specific percentile of LTTs of bootstrap trees at every age in LTT_ages. For example, bootstrap_LTT_CI$CI95lower[10] and bootstrap_LTT_CI$CI95upper[10] define the lower and upper bound, respectively, of the 95% confidence interval of LTTs generated by the model at age LTT_ages[10].

fraction_LTT_in_CI95

Numeric, fraction of the tree's LTT contained within the equal-tailed 95%-confidence interval of the distribution of LTT values predicted by the model. For example, a value of 0.5 means that at half of the time points between the present-day and the root, the tree's LTT is contained with the 95%-CI of predicted LTTs.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

O. G. Pybus and P. H. Harvey (2000). Testing macro-evolutionary models using incomplete molecular phylogenies. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences. 267:2267-2272.

M. J. Sackin (1972). "Good" and "Bad" Phenograms. Systematic Biology. 21:225-226.

K.T. Shao, R. R. Sokal (1990). Tree Balance. Systematic Biology. 39:266-276.

M. G. B. Blum and O. Francois (2006). Which random processes describe the Tree of Life? A large-scale study of phylogenetic tree imbalance. Systematic Biology. 55:685-691.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbd, model_adequacy_hbds

Examples

# generate a tree
tree = castor::generate_tree_hbd_reverse(Ntips  = 50,
                                         lambda = 1,
                                         mu     = 0.5,
                                         rho    = 1)$trees[[1]]
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance

# define & simulate a somewhat different BD model
model = simulate_deterministic_hbd(LTT0         = 50,
                                   oldest_age   = root_age,
                                   lambda       = 1.5,
                                   mu           = 0.5,
                                   rho0         = 1)

# compare the tree to the model
adequacy = model_adequacy_hbd(tree, 
                              models        = model,
                              Nbootstraps   = 100,
                              Nthreads      = 2)
if(!adequacy$success){
    cat(sprintf("Adequacy test failed: %s\n",adequacy$error))
}else{
    print(adequacy$statistical_tests)
}

Check if a birth-death-sampling model adequately explains a timetree.

Description

Given a rooted timetree and a homogenous birth-death-sampling model (e.g., as used in molecular epidemiology), check if the model adequately explains various aspects of the tree, such as the branch length and node age distributions and other test statistics. The function uses bootstrapping to simulate multiple hypothetical trees according to the model and then compares the distribution of those trees to the original tree. This function may be used to quantify the "goodness of fit" of a birth-death-sampling model to a timetree. For background on the HBDS model see the documentation for generate_tree_hbds.

Usage

model_adequacy_hbds(tree,
                    models,
                    splines_degree      = 1,
                    extrapolate         = FALSE,
                    Nbootstraps         = 1000,
                    max_sim_attempts    = 1000,
                    Nthreads            = 1,
                    max_extant_tips     = NULL,
                    max_model_runtime   = NULL)

Arguments

tree

A rooted timetree of class "phylo".

models

Either a single HBDS model or a list of HBDS models, specifying the pool of models from which to randomly draw bootstraps. Every model should itself be a named list with some or all of the following elements:

  • stem_age: Numeric, the age (time before present) at which the HBDS process started. If NULL, this is automatically set to the input tree's root age.

  • end_age : Numeric, the age (time before present) at which the HBDS process halted. This will typically be 0 (i.e., at the tree's youngest tip), however it may also be negative if the process actually halted after the youngest tip was sampled.

  • ages: Numeric vector, specifying discrete ages (times before present) in ascending order, on which all model variables (e.g., λ\lambda, μ\mu and ψ\psi) will be specified. Age increases from tips to root; the youngest tip in the input tree has age 0. The age grid must cover stem_age and end_age.

  • lambda: Numeric vector of the same length as ages, listing the speciation rate (λ\lambda) of the HBDS model at the corresponding ages. Between grid points, the speciation rate is assumed to either be constant (if splines_degree=0), or linearly (if splines_degree=1) or quadratically (if splines_degree=2) or cubically (if splines_degree=3).

  • mu: Numeric vector of the same length as ages, listing the extinction rate (μ\mu) of the HBDS model at the corresponding ages. Between grid points, the extinction rate is assumed to either be constant (if splines_degree=0), or linearly (if splines_degree=1) or quadratically (if splines_degree=2) or cubically (if splines_degree=3). Note that in epidemiological models μ\mu usually corresponds to the recovery rate plus the death rate of infected hosts. If mu is not included, it is assumed to be zero.

  • psi: Optional numeric vector of the same length as ages, listing the Poissonian sampling rate (μ\mu) of the HBDS model at the corresponding ages. Between grid points, the sampling rate is assumed to either be constant (if splines_degree=0), or linearly (if splines_degree=1) or quadratically (if splines_degree=2) or cubically (if splines_degree=3). If psi is not included, it is assumed to be zero.

  • kappa: Optional numeric vector of the same length as ages, listing the retention probability upon sampling (κ\kappa) of the HBDS model at the corresponding ages. Between grid points, the retention probability is assumed to either be constant (if splines_degree=0), or linearly (if splines_degree=1) or quadratically (if splines_degree=2) or cubically (if splines_degree=3). Note that since kappa are actual probabilities, they must all be between 0 and 1. If kappa is not included, it is assumed to be zero.

  • CSA_ages: Numeric vector listing the ages (time before present) of concentrated sampling attempts, in ascending order. If empty or NULL, no concentrated sampling attempts are included, i.e. all sampling is assumed to be done according to the Poissonian rate ψ\psi.

  • CSA_probs: Optional numeric vector, of the same length as CSA_ages, specifying the sampling probabilities for each concentrated sampling attempt listed in CSA_ages. Hence, a lineage extant at age CSA_ages[k] has probability CSA_probs[k] of being sampled. Note that since CSA_probs are actual probabilities, they must all be between 0 and 1. CSA_probs must be provided if and only if CSA_ages is provided.

  • CSA_kappas: Optional numeric vector, of the same length as CSA_ages, specifying the retention probability upon sampling for each concentrated sampling attempt listed in CSA_ages. Note that since CSA_kappas are actual probabilities, they must all be between 0 and 1. CSA_kappas must be provided if and only if CSA_ages is provided.

If you are assessing the adequacy of a single model with specific parameters, then models can be a single model. If you want to assess the adequacy of a distribution of models, such as sampled from the posterior distribution during a Bayesian analysis, models should list those posterior models.

splines_degree

Integer, one of 0, 1, 2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the model parameters λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa between age-grid points. For example, splines_degree=0 means piecewise constant, splines_degree=1 means piecewise linear and so on.

extrapolate

Logical, specifying whether to extrapolate the model variables λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa (as constants) beyond the provided age grid all the way to stem_age and end_age if needed.

Nbootstraps

Integer, the number of bootstraps (simulations) to perform for calculating statistical significances. A larger number will increase the accuracy of estimated statistical significances.

max_sim_attempts

Integer, maximum number of simulation attempts per bootstrap, before giving up. Multiple attempts may be needed if the HBDS model has a high probability of leading to extinction early on.

Nthreads

Integer, number of parallel threads to use for bootstrapping. Note that on Windows machines this option is ignored.

max_extant_tips

Integer, optional maximum number of extant tips per simulation. A simulation is aborted (and that bootstrap iteration skipped) if the number of extant tips exceeds this threshold. Use this to avoid occasional explosions of runtimes, for example due to very large generated trees.

max_model_runtime

Numeric, optional maximum computation time (in seconds) to allow for each HBDS model simulation (per bootstrap). Use this to avoid occasional explosions of runtimes, for example due to very large generated trees. Aborted simulations will be omitted from the bootstrap statistics. If NULL or <=0, this option is ignored.

Details

In addition to model selection, the adequacy of any chosen model should also be assessed in absolute terms, i.e. not just relative to other competing models (after all, all considered models might be bad). This function essentially determines how probable it is for hypothetical trees generated by a candidate model (or a distribution of candidate models) to resemble the tree at hand, in terms of various test statistics. In particular, the function uses a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to check whether the probability distributions of edge lengths and node ages in the tree resemble those expected under the provided models. All statistical significances are calculated using bootstrapping, i.e. by simulating trees from the provided models. For every bootstrap, a model is randomly chosen from the provided models list.

Note that even if an HBDS model appears to adequately explain a given timetree, this does not mean that the model even approximately resembles the true diversification history (i.e., the true speciation, extinction and sampling rates) that generated the tree (Louca and Pennell 2020). Hence, it is generally more appropriate to say that a given model "congruence class" rather than a specific model explains the tree.

Note that here "age" refers to time before present, i.e. age increases from tips to roots and the youngest tip in the input tree has age 0. In some situations the process that generated the tree (or which is being compared to the tree) might have halted after the last tip was sampled, in which case end_age should be negative. Similarly, the process may have started prior to the tree's root (e.g., sampled tips coalesce at a later time than when the monitoring started), in which case stem_age should be greater than the root's age.

For convenience, it is possible to specify a model without providing an explicit age grid (i.e., omitting ages); in such a model λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa are assumed to be time-independent, and hence lambda, mu, psi and kappa must be provided as single numerics (or not provided at all).

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the model evaluation was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable, error, will contain a description of the error; in that case all other return variables may be undefined. Note that success does not say whether the model explains the tree, but rather whether the computation was performed without errors.

Nbootstraps

Integer, the number of bootstraps used.

tree_Ntips

Integer, the number of tips in the original tree.

bootstrap_mean_Ntips

Numeric, mean number of tips in the bootstrap trees.

PNtips

Numeric, two-sided statistical significance of the tree's number of tips under the provided null model, i.e. the probability that abs(bootstrap_mean_Ntips-tree_Ntips) would be as large as observed.

tree_Colless

Numeric, Colless imbalance statistic (Shao and Sokal, 1990) of the original tree.

bootstrap_mean_Colless

Numeric, mean Colless statistic across all bootstrap trees.

PColless

Numeric, two-sided statistical significance of the tree's Colless statistic under the provided null model, i.e. the probability that abs(bootstrap_mean_Colless-tree_Colless) would be as large as observed.

tree_Sackin

Numeric, Sackin statistic (Sackin, 1972) of the original tree.

bootstrap_mean_Sackin

Numeric, median Sackin statistic across all bootstrap trees.

PSackin

Numeric, two-sided statistical significance of the tree's Sackin statistic under the provided null model, i.e. the probability that abs(bootstrap_mean_Sackin-tree_Sackin) would be as large as observed.

tree_edgeKS

Numeric, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic of the original tree's edge lengths, i.e. the estimated maximum difference between the tree's and the model's (estimated) cumulative distribution function of edge lengths.

bootstrap_mean_edgeKS

Numeric, mean KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' edge lengths.

PedgeKS

Numeric, the one-sided statistical significance of the tree's edge-length KS statistic, i.e. the probability that the KS statistic of any tree generated by the model would be larger than the original tree's KS statistic. A low value means that the probability distribution of edge lengths in the original tree differs strongly from that expected based on the model.

tree_tipKS

Numeric, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic of the original tree's tip ages (sampling times before present), i.e. the estimated maximum difference between the tree's and the model's (estimated) cumulative distribution function of tip ages.

bootstrap_mean_tipKS

Numeric, mean KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' tip ages.

PtipKS

Numeric, the one-sided statistical significance of the tree's tip-age KS statistic, i.e. the probability that the KS statistic of any tree generated by the model would be larger than the original tree's KS statistic. A low value means that the probability distribution of tip ages in the original tree differs strongly from that expected based on the model.

tree_nodeKS

Numeric, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic of the original tree's node ages (divergence times before present), i.e. the estimated maximum difference between the tree's and the model's (estimated) cumulative distribution function of node ages.

bootstrap_mean_nodeKS

Numeric, mean KS statistic of the bootstrap trees' node ages.

PnodeKS

Numeric, the one-sided statistical significance of the tree's node-age KS statistic, i.e. the probability that the KS statistic of any tree generated by the model would be larger than the original tree's KS statistic. A low value means that the probability distribution of node ages in the original tree differs strongly from that expected based on the model.

statistical_tests

Data frame, listing the above statistical test results in a more compact format (one test statistic per row).

LTT_ages

Numeric vector, listing ages (time before present) on which the tree's LTT will be defined.

tree_LTT

Numeric vector of the same length as LTT_ages, listing the number of lineages in the tree at every age in LTT_ages.

bootstrap_LTT_CI

Named list containing the elements means, medians, CI50lower, CI50upper, CI95lower and CI95upper. Each of these elements is a numeric vector of length equal to LTT_ages, listing the mean or a specific percentile of LTTs of bootstrap trees at every age in LTT_ages. For example, bootstrap_LTT_CI$CI95lower[10] and bootstrap_LTT_CI$CI95upper[10] define the lower and upper bound, respectively, of the 95% confidence interval of LTTs generated by the model at age LTT_ages[10].

fraction_LTT_in_CI95

Numeric, fraction of the tree's LTT contained within the equal-tailed 95%-confidence interval of the distribution of LTT values predicted by the model. For example, a value of 0.5 means that at half of the time points between the present-day and the root, the tree's LTT is contained with the 95%-CI of predicted LTTs.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). Extant timetrees are consistent with a myriad of diversification histories. Nature. 580:502-505.

O. G. Pybus and P. H. Harvey (2000). Testing macro-evolutionary models using incomplete molecular phylogenies. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences. 267:2267-2272.

M. J. Sackin (1972). "Good" and "Bad" Phenograms. Systematic Biology. 21:225-226.

K.T. Shao, R. R. Sokal (1990). Tree Balance. Systematic Biology. 39:266-276.

See Also

simulate_deterministic_hbds, generate_tree_hbds, model_adequacy_hbd

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a tree based on a simple HBDS process
max_time = 10
gen = castor::generate_tree_hbds(max_time           = max_time,
                                 lambda             = 1,
                                 mu                 = 0.1,
                                 psi                = 0.1,
                                 no_full_extinction = TRUE)
if(!gen$success) stop(sprintf("Could not generate tree: %s",gen$error))
tree     = gen$tree
root_age = castor::get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance

# determine age of the stem, i.e. when the HBDS process started
stem_age = gen$root_time + root_age

# determine age at which the HBDS simulation was halted.
# This might be slightly negative, e.g. if the process
# halted after the last sampled tip
end_age = root_age - (gen$final_time-gen$root_time)

# compare the tree to a slightly different model
model = list(stem_age    = stem_age,
             end_age     = end_age,
             lambda      = 1.2,
             mu          = 0.1,
             psi         = 0.2)
adequacy = model_adequacy_hbds( tree, 
                                models = model,
                                Nbootstraps = 100)
if(!adequacy$success){
    cat(sprintf("Adequacy test failed: %s\n",adequacy$error))
}else{
    print(adequacy$statistical_tests)
}

## End(Not run)

Expand multifurcations to bifurcations.

Description

Eliminate multifurcations from a phylogenetic tree, by replacing each multifurcation with multiple bifurcations.

Usage

multifurcations_to_bifurcations(tree, dummy_edge_length=0, 
                                new_node_basename="node.", 
                                new_node_start_index=NULL)

Arguments

tree

A tree of class "phylo".

dummy_edge_length

Non-negative numeric. Length to be used for new (dummy) edges when breaking multifurcations into bifurcations. Typically this will be 0, but can also be a positive number if zero edge lengths are not desired in the returned tree.

new_node_basename

Character. Name prefix to be used for added nodes (e.g. "node." or "new.node."). Only relevant if the input tree included node labels.

new_node_start_index

Integer. First index for naming added nodes. Can also be NULL, in which case this is set to Nnodes+1, where Nnodes is the number of nodes in the input tree.

Details

For each multifurcating node (i.e. with more than 2 children), all children but one will be placed on new bifurcating nodes, connected to the original node through one or more dummy edges.

The input tree need not be rooted, however descendance from each node is inferred based on the direction of edges in tree$edge. The input tree may include multifurcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as monofurcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). Monofurcations are kept in the returned tree.

All tips and nodes in the input tree retain their original indices, however the returned tree may include additional nodes and edges. Edge indices may change.

If tree$edge.length is missing, then all edges in the input tree are assumed to have length 1. The returned tree will include edge.length, with all new edges having length equal to dummy_edge_length.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tree

A new tree of class "phylo", containing only bifurcations (and monofurcations, if these existed in the input tree).

old2new_edge

Integer vector of length Nedges, mapping edge indices in the old tree to edge indices in the new tree.

Nnodes_added

Integer. Number of nodes added to the new tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

collapse_monofurcations

Examples

# generate a random multifurcating tree
Ntips = 1000
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1), Ntips, Nsplits=5)$tree

# expand multifurcations to bifurcations
new_tree = multifurcations_to_bifurcations(tree)$tree

# print summary of old and new tree
cat(sprintf("Old tree has %d nodes\n",tree$Nnode))
cat(sprintf("New tree has %d nodes\n",new_tree$Nnode))

Pick random subsets of tips on a tree.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, this function picks random subsets of tips by traversing the tree from root to tips, choosing a random child at each node until reaching a tip. Multiple random independent subsets can be generated if needed.

Usage

pick_random_tips( tree, 
                  size              = 1, 
                  Nsubsets          = 1, 
                  with_replacement  = TRUE, 
                  drop_dims         = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

size

Integer. The size of each random subset of tips.

Nsubsets

Integer. Number of independent subsets to pick.

with_replacement

Logical. If TRUE, each tip can be picked multiple times within a subset (i.e. are "replaced" in the urn). If FALSE, tips are picked without replacement in each subset. In that case, size must not be greater than the number of tips in the tree.

drop_dims

Logical, specifying whether to return a vector (instead of a matrix) if Nsubsets==1.

Details

If with_replacement==TRUE, then each child of a node is equally probable to be traversed and each tip can be included multiple times in a subset. If with_replacement==FALSE, then only children with at least one descending tip not included in the subset remain available for traversal; each available child of a node has equal probability to be traversed. In any case, it is always possible for separate subsets to include the same tips.

This random sampling algorithm differs from a uniform sampling of tips at equal probabilities; instead, this algorithm ensures that sister clades have equal probabilities to be picked (if with_replacement==TRUE or if size<<Ntips).

The time required by this function per random subset decreases with the number of subsets requested.

Value

A 2D integer matrix of size Nsubsets x size, with each row containing indices of randomly picked tips (i.e. in 1,..,Ntips) within a specific subset. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsubsets==1, then a vector is returned instead of a matrix.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

Examples

# generate random tree
Ntips = 1000
tree  = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# pick random tip subsets
Nsubsets = 100
size     = 50
subsets = pick_random_tips(tree, size, Nsubsets, with_replacement=FALSE)

# count the number of times each tip was picked in a subset ("popularity")
popularities = table(subsets)

# plot histogram of tip popularities
hist(popularities,breaks=20,xlab="popularity",ylab="# tips",main="tip popularities")

Place queries on a tree based on taxonomic identities.

Description

Given a rooted tree with associated tip & node taxonomies, as well as a list of query taxonomies, place the queries on nodes of the tree based on taxonomic identity. Each query is placed at the deepest possible node (furthest from the root in terms of splits) for which it is certain that the query is a descendant of.

Usage

place_tips_taxonomically( tree,
                          query_labels,
                          query_taxonomies      = NULL,
                          tip_taxonomies        = NULL,
                          node_taxonomies       = NULL,
                          tree_taxon_delimiter  = ";",
                          query_taxon_delimiter = ";",
                          include_expanded_tree = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

Rooted tree of class "phylo".

query_labels

Character vector of length Nqueries, listing labels for the newly placed tips.

query_taxonomies

Optional character vector of length Nqueries, listing the taxonomic paths of the queries. If NULL, it is assumed that query_labels are taxonomies.

tip_taxonomies

Optional character vector of length Ntips, listing taxonomic paths for the tree's tips. If NULL, then tip labels are assumed to be tip taxonomies.

node_taxonomies

Optional character vector of length Nnodes, listing taxonomic paths for the tree's nodes. If NULL, then node labels are assumed to be node taxonomies.

tree_taxon_delimiter

Character, the delimiter between taxonomic levels in the tree's tip & node taxonomies (e.g., ";" for SILVA taxonomies).

query_taxon_delimiter

Character, the delimiter between taxonomic levels in query_taxonomies.

include_expanded_tree

If TRUE, the expanded tree (i.e., including the placements) is returned as well, at some computational cost. If FALSE, only the placement info is returned, but no tree expansion is done.

Details

This function assumes that the tip & node taxonomies are somewhat consistent with each other and with the tree's topology.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

placement_nodes

Integer vector of length Nqueries, with values in 1,..,Nnodes, specifying for each query the node on which it was placed. For queries that could not be placed on the tree, the value 0 is used.

If include_expanded_tree was TRUE, the following additional elements are included:

tree

Object of class "phylo", the extended tree constructed by adding the placements on the original tree.

placed_tips

Integer vector of length Nqueries, specifying which tips in the returned tree correspond to placements. For queries that could not be placed on the tree, the value 0 is used.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

expanded_tree_from_jplace


Load a fasta file.

Description

Efficiently load headers & sequences from a fasta file.

Usage

read_fasta(file,
		   include_headers		= TRUE,
		   include_sequences	= TRUE,
		   truncate_headers_at	= NULL)

Arguments

file

A character, path to the input fasta file. This may be gzipped (with extension .gz).

include_headers

Logical, whether to load the headers. If you don't need the headers you can set this to FALSE for efficiency.

include_sequences

Logical, whether to load the sequences. If you don't need the sequences you can set this to FALSE for efficiency.

truncate_headers_at

Optional character, needle at which to truncate headers. Everything at and after the first instance of the needle will be removed from the headers.

Details

This function is a fast and simple fasta loader. Note that all sequences and headers are loaded into memory at once.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

headers

Character vector, listing the loaded headers in the order encountered. Only included if include_headers was TRUE.

sequences

Character vector, listing the loaded sequences in the order encountered. Only included if include_sequences was TRUE.

Nlines

Integer, number of lines encountered.

Nsequences

Integer, number of sequences encountered.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

read_tree

Examples

## Not run: 
# load a gzipped fasta file
fasta = read_faste(file="myfasta.fasta.gz")

# print the first sequence
cat(fasta$sequences[1])

## End(Not run)

Load a tree from a string or file in Newick (parenthetic) format.

Description

Load a phylogenetic tree from a file or a string, in Newick (parenthetic) format. Any valid Newick format is acceptable. Extended variants including edge labels and edge numbers are also supported.

Usage

read_tree(  string  = "", 
            file    = "", 
            edge_order              = "cladewise",
            include_edge_lengths    = TRUE, 
            look_for_edge_labels    = FALSE, 
            look_for_edge_numbers   = FALSE, 
            include_node_labels     = TRUE, 
            underscores_as_blanks   = FALSE, 
            check_label_uniqueness  = FALSE,
            interpret_quotes        = FALSE,
            trim_white              = TRUE)

Arguments

string

A character containing a single tree in Newick format. Can be used alternatively to file.

file

Character, a path to an input text file containing a single tree in Newick format. Can be used alternatively to string.

edge_order

Character, one of “cladewise” or “pruningwise”, specifying the order in which edges should be listed in the returned tree. This does not influence the topology of the tree or the tip/node labeling, it only affects the way edges are numbered internally.

include_edge_lengths

Logical, specifying whether edge lengths (if available) should be included in the returned tree.

look_for_edge_labels

Logical, specifying whether edge labels may be present in the input tree. If edge labels are found, they are included in the returned tree as a character vector edge.label. Edge labels are sought inside square brackets, which are not part of the standard Newick format but used by some tree creation software (Matsen 2012). If look_for_edge_labels==FALSE, square brackets are read verbatim just like any other character.

look_for_edge_numbers

Logical, specifying whether edge numbers (non-negative integers) may be present in the input tree. If edge numbers are found, they are included in the returned tree as an integer vector edge.number. Edge numbers are sought inside curly braces, which are not part of the standard Newick format but used by some tree creation software (Matsen 2012). If look_for_edge_numbers==FALSE, curly braces are read verbatim just like any other character.

include_node_labels

Logical, specifying whether node labels (if available) should be included in the returned tree.

underscores_as_blanks

Logical, specifying whether underscores ("_") in tip and node labels should be replaced by spaces (" "). This is common behavior in other tree parsers. In any case, tip, node and edge labels (if available) are also allowed to contain explicit whitespace (except for newline characters).

check_label_uniqueness

Logical, specifying whether to check if all tip labels are unique.

interpret_quotes

Logical, specifying whether to interpret quotes as delimiters of tip/node/edge labels. If FALSE, then quotes are read verbatim just like any other character.

trim_white

Logical, specifying whether to trim flanking whitespace from tip, node and edge labels.

Details

This function is comparable to (but typically much faster than) the ape function read.tree. The function supports trees with monofurcations and multifurcations, trees with or without tip/node labels, and trees with or without edge lengths. The time complexity is linear in the number of edges in the tree.

Either file or string must be specified, but not both. The tree may be arbitrarily split across multiple lines, but no other non-whitespace text is permitted in string or in the input file. Flanking whitespace (space, tab, newlines) is ignored.

Value

A single rooted phylogenetic tree in “phylo” format.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Frederick A. Matsen et al. (2012). A format for phylogenetic placements. PLOS One. 7:e31009

See Also

write_tree

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=100)$tree

# obtain a string representation of the tree in Newick format
Newick_string = write_tree(tree)

# re-parse tree from string
parsed_tree = read_tree(Newick_string)

Reconstruct past diversification dynamics from a diversity time series.

Description

Given a time series of past diversities (coalescent or not), this function estimates instantaneous birth (speciation) and death (extinction) rates that would lead to the observed diversity time series. The function is based on a deterministic model (or the continuum limit of a stochastic cladogenic model), in which instantaneous birth and death rates lead to a predictable growth of a tree (one new species per birth event). The reconstruction is non-parametric, i.e. does not rely on fitting a parameterized model. The reconstruction is only accurate in the deterministic limit, i.e. for high diversities where the stochastic nature of the cladogenic process diminishes. Of particular importance is the case where the time series is coalescent, i.e. represents the diversity (lineages-through-time) that would be represented in a coalescent tree with extinctions.

Note: This function is included for legacy reasons mainly. In most cases users should instead use the functions fit_hbd_model_on_grid and fit_hbd_model_parametric to fit birth-death models, or the functions fit_hbd_pdr_on_grid, fit_hbd_pdr_parametric and fit_hbd_psr_on_grid to fit BD model congruence classes (aka. “pulled variables”) to a tree.

Usage

reconstruct_past_diversification( times,
                                  diversities,
                                  birth_rates_pc            = NULL,
                                  rarefaction               = NULL,
                                  discovery_fractions       = NULL,
                                  discovery_fraction_slopes = NULL,
                                  max_age                   = NULL,
                                  coalescent                = FALSE,
                                  smoothing_span            = 0,
                                  smoothing_order           = 1)

Arguments

times

Numeric vector, listing the times at which diversities are given. Values must be in ascending order.

diversities

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing diversities (coalescent or not) at each time point.

birth_rates_pc

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing known or assumed per-capita birth rates (speciation rates). Can also be of size 1, in which case the same per-capita birth rate is assumed throughout. Alternatively if coalescent==TRUE, then this vector can also be empty, in which case a constant per-capita birth rate is assumed and estimated from the slope of the coalescent diversities at the last time point. The last alternative is not available when coalescent==FALSE.

rarefaction

Numeric between 0 and 1. Optional rarefaction fraction assumed for the diversities at the very end. Set to 1 to assume no rarefaction was performed.

discovery_fractions

Numeric array of size Ntimes, listing the fractions of extant lineages represented in the tree over time. Hence, discovery_fraction[t] is the probability that a lineage at time times[t] with extant representatives will be represented in the tree. Can be used as an alternative to rarefaction, for example if discovery of extant species is non-random or phylogenetically biased. Experimental, so leave this NULL if you don't know what it means.

discovery_fraction_slopes

Numeric array of size Ntimes, listing the 1st derivative of discovery_fractions (w.r.t. time) over time. If NULL, this will be estimated from discovery_fractions via basic finite differences if needed. Experimental, so leave this NULL if you don't know what it means.

max_age

Numeric. Optional maximum distance from the end time to be considered. If NULL or <=0 or Inf, all provided time points are considered.

coalescent

Logical, indicating whether the provided diversities are from a coalescent tree (only including clades with extant representatives) or total diversities (extant species at each time point).

smoothing_span

Non-negative integer. Optional sliding window size (number of time points) for smoothening the diversities time series via Savitzky-Golay-filter. If <=2, no smoothing is done. Smoothening the time series can reduce the effects of noise on the reconstructed diversity dynamics.

smoothing_order

Integer between 1 and 4. Polynomial order of the Savitzky-Golay smoothing filter to be applied. Only relevant if smoothing_span>2. A value of 1 or 2 is typically recommended.

Details

This function can be used to fit a birth-death model to a coalescent diversity time series Nc(τ)N_c(\tau) at various ages τ\tau, also known as “lineages-through-time” curve. The reconstruction of the total diversity N(τ)N(\tau) is based on the following formulas:

E(τ)=1+ν(τ)β(τ),E(\tau)=1+\frac{\nu(\tau)}{\beta(\tau)},\\

N(τ)=Nc1E(τ),N(\tau)=\frac{N_c}{1-E(\tau)},

ν(τ)=1Nc(τ)dNc(τ)dτ\nu(\tau)=\frac{1}{N_c(\tau)}\frac{dN_c(\tau)}{d\tau}

where E(τ)E(\tau) is the probability that a clade of size 1 at age τ\tau went extinct by the end of the time series and β\beta is the per-capita birth rate. If the per-capita birth rate is not explicitly provided for each time point (see argument birth_rate_pc), the function assumes that the per-capita birth rate (speciation rate) is constant at all times. If birth_rates_pc==NULL and coalescent==TRUE, the constant speciation rate is estimated as

β=ν(0)ρ,\beta = -\frac{\nu(0)}{\rho},

where ρ\rho is the fraction of species kept after rarefaction (see argument rarefaction).

Assuming a constant speciation rate may or may not result in accurate estimates of past total diversities and other quantities. If a time-varying speciation rate is suspected but not known, additional information on past diversification dynamics may be obtained using modified (“pulled”) quantities that partly resemble the classical extinction rate, diversification rate and total diversity. Such quantities are the “pulled diversification rate”:

η(τ)=δ(τ)β(τ)+1β(τ)dβdτ,\eta(\tau) = \delta(\tau) - \beta(\tau) + \frac{1}{\beta(\tau)}\frac{d\beta}{d\tau},

the “pulled extinction rate”:

δp(τ)=δ(τ)+(βoβ(τ))1β(τ)dβdτ,\delta_p(\tau) = \delta(\tau) + (\beta_o-\beta(\tau)) - \frac{1}{\beta(\tau)}\frac{d\beta}{d\tau},

and the “pulled total diversity”:

Np(τ)=N(τ)βoβ(τ),N_p(\tau) = N(\tau)\cdot\frac{\beta_o}{\beta(\tau)},

where βo\beta_o is the provided or estimated (if not provided) speciation rate at the last time point. The advantage of these quantities is that they can be estimated from the coalescent diversities (lineages-through-time) without any assumptions on how β\beta and δ\delta varied over time. The disadvantage is that they differ from their “non-pulled” quantities (βδ\beta-\delta, δ\delta and NN), in cases where β\beta varied over time.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, specifying whether the reconstruction was successful. If FALSE, the remaining elements may not be defined.

Ntimes

Integer. Number of time points for which reconstruction is returned.

total_diversities

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the total diversity at each time point (number of extant lineages at each time point). If coalescent==FALSE, then these are the same as the diversities passed to the function.

coalescent_diversities

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the coalescent diversities at each time point (number of species with at least one extant descendant at the last time point). If coalescent==TRUE, then these are the same as the diversities passed to the function.

birth_rates

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the estimated birth rates (speciation events per time unit).

death_rates

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the estimated death rates (extinction events per time unit).

Psurvival

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the estimated fraction of lineages at each time point that eventually survive. Psurvival[i] is the probability that a clade of size 1 at time times[i] will be extant by the end of the time series. May be NULL in some cases.

Pdiscovery

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the estimated fraction of lineages at each time point that are eventually discovered, provided that they survive. Pdiscovery[i] is the probability that a clade of size 1 at time times[i] that is extant by the end of the time series, will be discovered. May be NULL in some cases.

Prepresentation

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the estimated fraction of lineages at each time point that eventually survive and are discovered. Prepresentation[i] is the probability that a clade of size 1 at time times[i] will be extant by the end of the time series and visible in the coalescent tree after rarefaction. Note that Prepresentation = Psurvival * Pdiscovery. May be NULL in some cases.

total_births

Numeric, giving the estimated total number of birth events that occurred between times T-max_age and T, where T is the last time point of the time series.

total_deaths

Numeric, giving the estimated total number of death events that occurred between times T-max_age and T, where T is the last time point of the time series.

last_birth_rate_pc

The provided or estimated (if not provided) speciation rate at the last time point. This corresponds to the birth rate divided by the estimated true diversity (prior to rarefaction) at the last time point.

last_death_rate_pc

The estimated extinction rate at the last time point. This corresponds to the death rate divided by the estimated true diversity (prior to rarefaction) at the last time point.

pulled_diversification_rates

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the estimated pulled diversification rates.

pulled_extinction_rates

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the estimated pulled extinction rates.

pulled_total_diversities

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the estimated pulled total diversities.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Louca et al (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

See Also

generate_random_tree, fit_tree_model, count_lineages_through_time, fit_hbd_model_parametric, fit_hbd_model_on_grid

Examples

#####################################################
# EXAMPLE 1

# Generate a coalescent tree
params = list(birth_rate_intercept  = 0, 
              birth_rate_factor     = 1,
              birth_rate_exponent   = 1,
              death_rate_intercept  = 0,
              death_rate_factor     = 0.05,
              death_rate_exponent   = 1.3,
              rarefaction           = 1)
simulation = generate_random_tree(params,max_time_eq=1,coalescent=TRUE)
tree = simulation$tree
time_span = simulation$final_time - simulation$root_time
cat(sprintf("Generated tree has %d tips, spans %g time units\n",length(tree$tip.label),time_span))

# Calculate diversity time series from the tree
counter = count_lineages_through_time(tree, times=seq(0,0.99*time_span,length.out=100))

# print coalescent diversities
print(counter$lineages)

# reconstruct diversification dynamics based on diversity time series
results = reconstruct_past_diversification( counter$times,
                                            counter$lineages,
                                            coalescent      = TRUE,
                                            smoothing_span  = 3,
                                            smoothing_order = 1)
                                            
# print reconstructed total diversities
print(results$total_diversities)
                                                  
# plot coalescent and reconstructed true diversities
matplot(x     = counter$times, 
        y     = matrix(c(counter$lineages,results$total_diversities), ncol=2, byrow=FALSE),
        type  = "b", 
        xlab  = "time", 
        ylab  = "# clades",
        lty   = c(1,2), pch = c(1,0), col = c("red","blue"))
legend( "topleft", 
        legend  = c("coalescent (simulated)","true (reconstructed)"), 
        col     = c("red","blue"), lty = c(1,2), pch = c(1,0));
        
        
        
#####################################################
# EXAMPLE 2

# Generate a non-coalescent tree
params = list(birth_rate_intercept  = 0, 
              birth_rate_factor     = 1,
              birth_rate_exponent   = 1,
              death_rate_intercept  = 0,
              death_rate_factor     = 0.05,
              death_rate_exponent   = 1.3,
              rarefaction           = 1)
simulation = generate_random_tree(params,max_time_eq=1,coalescent=FALSE)
tree = simulation$tree
time_span = simulation$final_time - simulation$root_time
cat(sprintf("Generated tree has %d tips, spans %g time units\n",length(tree$tip.label),time_span))

# Calculate diversity time series from the tree
counter = count_lineages_through_time(tree, times=seq(0,0.99*time_span,length.out=100))

# print true diversities
print(counter$lineages)

# reconstruct diversification dynamics based on diversity time series
results = reconstruct_past_diversification( counter$times,
                                            counter$lineages,
                                            birth_rates_pc  = params$birth_rate_factor,
                                            coalescent      = FALSE,
                                            smoothing_span  = 3,
                                            smoothing_order = 1)
                                            
# print coalescent diversities
print(results$coalescent_diversities)
                                                  
# plot coalescent and reconstructed true diversities
matplot(x     = counter$times, 
        y     = matrix(c(results$coalescent_diversities,counter$lineages), ncol=2, byrow=FALSE),
        type  = "b", 
        xlab  = "time", 
        ylab  = "# clades",
        lty   = c(1,2), pch = c(1,0), col = c("red","blue"))
legend( "topleft", 
        legend  = c("coalescent (reconstructed)","true (simulated)"), 
        col     = c("red","blue"), lty = c(1,2), pch = c(1,0));

Reorder tree edges in preorder or postorder.

Description

Given a rooted tree, this function reorders the rows in tree$edge so that they are listed in preorder (root–>tips) or postorder (tips–>root) traversal.

Usage

reorder_tree_edges(tree, root_to_tips=TRUE, 
                   depth_first_search=TRUE,
                   index_only=FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

root_to_tips

Logical, specifying whether to sort edges in preorder traversal (root–>tips), rather than in postorder traversal (tips–>roots).

depth_first_search

Logical, specifying whether the traversal (or the reversed traversal, if root_to_tips is FALSE) should be in depth-first-search format rather than breadth-first-search format.

index_only

Whether the function should only return a vector listing the reordered row indices of the edge matrix, rather than a modified tree.

Details

This function does not change the tree structure, nor does it affect tip/node indices and names. It merely changes the order in which edges are listed in the matrix tree$edge, so that edges are listed in preorder or postorder traversal. Preorder traversal guarantees that each edge is listed before any of its descending edges. Likewise, postorder guarantees that each edge is listed after any of its descending edges.

With options root_to_tips=TRUE and depth_first_search=TRUE, this function is analogous to the function reorder in the ape package with option order="cladewise".

The tree can include multifurcations (nodes with more than 2 children) as well as monofurcations (nodes with 1 child). This function has asymptotic time complexity O(Nedges).

Value

If index_only==FALSE, a tree object of class "phylo", with the rows in edge reordered such that they are listed in direction root–>tips (if root_to_tips==TRUE) or tips–>root. The vector tree$edge.length will also be updated in correspondence. Tip and node indices and names remain unchanged.

If index_only=TRUE, an integer vector (X) of size Nedges, listing the reordered row indices of tree$edge, i.e. such that tree$edge[X,] would be the reordered edge matrix.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_tree_traversal_root_to_tips

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_factor=1), max_tips=100)$tree

# get new tree with reordered edges
postorder_tree = reorder_tree_edges(tree, root_to_tips=FALSE)

## End(Not run)

Root a tree at the midpoint node.

Description

Given a tree (rooted or unrooted), this function changes the direction of edges (tree$edge) such that the new root satisfies a "midpoint"" criterion. The number of tips and the number of nodes remain unchanged. The root can either be placed on one of the existing nodes (this node will be the one whose maximum distance to any tip is minimized) or in the middle of one of the existing edges (chosen to be in the middle of the longest path between any two tips).

Usage

root_at_midpoint( tree, 
                  split_edge      = TRUE,
                  update_indices  = TRUE,
                  as_edge_counts  = FALSE,
                  is_rooted       = FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A tree object of class "phylo". Can be unrooted or rooted (but see option is_rooted).

split_edge

Logical, specifying whether to place the new root in the middle of an edge (in the middle of the longest path of any two tips), thereby creating a new node. If FALSE, then the root will be placed on one of the existing nodes; note that the resulting tree may no longer be bifurcating at the root.

update_indices

Logical, specifying whether to update the node indices such that the new root is the first node in the list, as is common convention. This will modify tree$node.label (if it exists) and also the node indices listed in tree$edge. Note that this option is only relevant if split_edge=FALSE; if split_edge=TRUE then update_indices will always be assumed TRUE.

as_edge_counts

Logical, specifying whether phylogenetic distances should be measured as cumulative edge counts. This is the same if all edges had length 1.

is_rooted

Logical, specifying whether the input tree can be assumed to be rooted. If you are not certain that the tree is rooted, set this to FALSE.

Details

The midpoint rooting method performs best if the two most distant tips have been sampled at the same time (for example, at the present) and if all lineages in the tree diverged at the same evolutionary rate. If the two most distant tips are sampled at very different times, for example if one or both of them represent extinct species, then the midpoint method is not recommended.

The input tree may include an arbitrary number of incoming and outgoing edges per node (but only one edge per tip), and the direction of these edges can be arbitrary. Of course, the undirected graph defined by all edges must still be a valid tree. Only set is_rooted=TRUE if you are sure that the input tree is rooted.

If update_indices==FALSE and split_edge=FALSE, then node indices remain unchanged. If update_indices==TRUE (default) or split_edge=TRUE, then node indices are modified such that the new root is the first node (i.e. with index Ntips+1 in edge and with index 1 in node.label), as is common convention. Setting update_indices=FALSE (when split_edge=FALSE) reduces the computation required for rerooting. Tip indices always remain unchanged.

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges).

Value

A tree object of class "phylo", with the edge element modified such that the maximum distance of the root to any tip is minimized. The elements tip.label, edge.length and root.edge (if they exist) are the same as for the input tree. If update_indices==FALSE, then the element node.label will also remain the same.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

root_via_outgroup, root_at_node, root_in_edge, root_via_rtt

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# reroot the tree at its midpoint node
tree = root_at_midpoint(tree)

Root a tree at a specific node.

Description

Given a tree (rooted or unrooted) and a specific node, this function changes the direction of edges (tree$edge) such that the designated node becomes the root (i.e. has no incoming edges and all other tips and nodes descend from it). The number of tips and the number of nodes remain unchanged.

Usage

root_at_node(tree, new_root_node, update_indices=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A tree object of class "phylo". Can be unrooted or rooted.

new_root_node

Character or integer specifying the name or index, respectively, of the node to be turned into root. If an integer, it must be between 1 and tree$Nnode. If a character, it must be a valid entry in tree$node.label.

update_indices

Logical, specifying whether to update the node indices such that the new root is the first node in the list (as is common convention). This will modify tree$node.label (if it exists) and also the node indices listed in tree$edge.

Details

The input tree may include an arbitrary number of incoming and outgoing edges per node (but only one edge per tip), and the direction of these edges can be arbitrary. Of course, the undirected graph defined by all edges must still be a valid tree. The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges).

If update_indices==FALSE, then node indices remain unchanged. If update_indices==TRUE (default), then node indices are modified such that the new root is the first node (i.e. with index Ntips+1 in edge and with index 1 in node.label). This is common convention, but it may be undesirable if, for example, you are looping through all nodes in the tree and are only temporarily designating them as root. Setting update_indices=FALSE also reduces the computation required for rerooting. Tip indices always remain unchanged.

Value

A tree object of class "phylo", with the edge element modified such that the node new_root_node is root. The elements tip.label, edge.length and root.edge (if they exist) are the same as for the input tree. If update_indices==FALSE, then the element node.label will also remain the same.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

root_via_outgroup, root_at_midpoint, root_in_edge, root_via_rtt

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# reroot the tree at the 20-th node
new_root_node = 20
tree = root_at_node(tree, new_root_node, update_indices=FALSE)

# find new root index and compare with expectation
cat(sprintf("New root is %d, expected at %d\n",find_root(tree),new_root_node+Ntips))

Root a tree in the middle of an edge.

Description

Given a tree (rooted or unrooted), this function places the new root on some specified edge, effectively adding one more node, one more edge and changing the direction of edges as required.

Usage

root_in_edge( tree, 
              root_edge, 
              location                = 0.5,
              new_root_name           = "", 
              collapse_monofurcations = TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A tree object of class "phylo". Can be unrooted or rooted.

root_edge

Integer, index of the edge into which the new root is to be placed. Must be between 1 and Nedges.

location

Numeric, between 0 and 1, specifying the relative location along the root_edge at which to place the root (relative to the edge length, measured from the upstream node). For example, location=0.5 means the root is placed in the middle of the edge, while location=0.1 means that it will be place closer to the upstream node (i.e., closer to tree$edge[root_edge,1]).

new_root_name

Character, specifying the node name to use for the new root. Only used if tree$node.label is not NULL.

collapse_monofurcations

Logical, specifying whether monofurcations in the rerooted tree (e.g. stemming from the old root) should be collapsed by connecting incoming edges with outgoing edges.

Details

The input tree may include an arbitrary number of incoming and outgoing edges per node (but only one edge per tip), and the direction of these edges can be arbitrary. Of course, the undirected graph defined by all edges must still be a valid tree.

The number of tips in the rerooted tree remains unchanged, the number of nodes is increased by 1. Node indices may be modified. Tip indices always remain unchanged.

The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges).

Value

A tree object of class "phylo", representing the (re-)rooted phylogenetic tree. The element tip.label is the same as for the input tree, but all other elements may have changed.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

root_via_outgroup, root_at_node, root_at_midpoint, root_via_rtt

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# reroot the tree inside some arbitrary edge
focal_edge = 120
tree = root_in_edge(tree, focal_edge)

Root a tree based on an outgroup tip.

Description

Given a tree (rooted or unrooted) and a specific tip (“outgroup”), this function changes the direction of edges (tree$edge) such that the outgroup's parent node becomes the root. The number of tips and the number of nodes remain unchanged.

Usage

root_via_outgroup(tree, outgroup, update_indices=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A tree object of class "phylo". Can be unrooted or rooted.

outgroup

Character or integer specifying the name or index, respectively, of the outgroup tip. If an integer, it must be between 1 and Ntips. If a character, it must be a valid entry in tree$tip.label.

update_indices

Logical, specifying whether to update the node indices such that the new root is the first node in the list (as is common convention). This will modify tree$node.label (if it exists) and also the node indices listed in tree$edge.

Details

The input tree may include an arbitrary number of incoming and outgoing edges per node (but only one edge per tip), and the direction of these edges can be arbitrary. Of course, the undirected graph defined by all edges must still be a valid tree. The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges).

If update_indices==FALSE, then node indices remain unchanged. If update_indices==TRUE (default), then node indices are modified such that the new root is the first node (i.e. with index Ntips+1 in edge and with index 1 in node.label). This is common convention, but it may be undesirable in some cases. Setting update_indices=FALSE also reduces the computation required for rerooting. Tip indices always remain unchanged.

Value

A tree object of class "phylo", with the edge element modified such that the outgroup tip's parent node is root. The elements tip.label, edge.length and root.edge (if they exist) are the same as for the input tree. If update_indices==FALSE, then the element node.label will also remain the same.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

root_at_node, root_at_midpoint, root_in_edge, root_via_rtt

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# reroot the tree using the 1st tip as outgroup
outgroup = 1
tree = root_via_outgroup(tree, outgroup, update_indices=FALSE)

# find new root index
cat(sprintf("New root is %d\n",find_root(tree)))

Root a tree via root-to-tip regression.

Description

Root a non-dated tree based on tip sampling times, by optimizing the goodness of fit of a linear root-to-tip (RTT) regression (regression of tip times vs phylogenetic distances from root). The precise objective optimized can be chosen by the user, typical choices being R2 or SSR (sum of squared residuals). This method is only suitable for clades that are "measurably evolving". The input tree's edge lengths should be measured in substitutions per site.

Usage

root_via_rtt(tree,
             tip_times,
             objective           = "R2",
             force_positive_rate = FALSE,
             Nthreads            = 1,
             optim_algorithm     = "nlminb",
             relative_error      = 1e-9)

Arguments

tree

A tree object of class "phylo". Can be unrooted or rooted (the root placement does not matter). Edge lengths should be measured in expected substitutions per site.

tip_times

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing the sampling times of all tips. Time is measured in forward direction, i.e., younger tips have a greater time value. Note that if you originally have tip sampling dates, you will first need to convert these to numeric values (for example decimal years or number of days since the start of the experiment).

objective

Character, specifying the goodness-of-fit measure to consider for the root-to-tip regression. Must be one of correlation, R2 (fraction of explained variance) or SSR (sum of squared residuals).

force_positive_rate

Logical, whether to force the mutation rate implied by the root placement to be positive (>=0).

Nthreads

Integer, number of parallel threads to use where applicable.

optim_algorithm

Character, the optimization algorithm to use. Must be either nlminb or optimize.

relative_error

Positive numeric, specifying the acceptable relative error when optimizing the goodness of fit. The precise interpretation depends on the optimization algorithm used. Smaller values may increase accuracy but also computing time.

Value

A named list with the following elements (more may be added in the future):

tree

The rooted tree. A tree object of class "phylo", with the same tips as the original tree (not necessarily in the original order).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

root_via_outgroup, root_at_node, root_in_edge root_at_midpoint

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 10
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=Ntips)$tree

# construct a vector with hypothetical tip sampling times
tip_times = c(2010.5, 2010.7, 2011.3, 2008.7,
              2009.1, 2013.9, 2013.8, 2011.4,
              2011.7, 2005.2)

# reroot the tree via root-to-tip regression
tree = root_via_rtt(tree, tip_times=tip_times)

Shift the time of specific nodes & tips.

Description

Given a rooted tree, shift the times (distance from root) of specific tips & nodes.

Usage

shift_clade_times(  tree,
                    clades_to_shift,
                    time_shifts,
                    shift_descendants       = FALSE,
                    negative_edge_lengths   = "error")

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

clades_to_shift

Integer or character vector, listing the tips and/or nodes whose time is to be shifted. If an integer vector, values must correspond to indices and must be in the range 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes. If a character vector, values must correspond to tip and/or node labels in the tree; if node labels are listed, the tree must contain node labels (attribute node.label).

time_shifts

Numeric vector of the same length as clades_to_shift, specifying the time shifts to apply to every tip/node listed in clades_to_shift. Values can be negative (shift towards the root) or positive (shift away from the root).

shift_descendants

Logical, specifying whether to shift the entire descending subclade when shifting a node. If FALSE, the descending tips & nodes retain their original time (unless negative edges are created, see option negative_edge_lengths).

negative_edge_lengths

Character, specifying whether and how to fix negative edge lengths resulting from excessive shifting. Must be either "error", "allow" (allow and don't fix negative edge lengths), "move_all_descendants" (move all descendants forward as needed, to make the edge non-negative), "move_all_ancestors" (move all ancestors backward as needed, to make the edge non-negative), "move_child" (only move children to younger ages as needed, traversing the tree root->tips) or "move_parent" (only move parents to older ages as needed, traversing the tree tips->root). Note that "move_child" could result in tips moving, if an ancestral node is shifted too much towards younger ages. Similarly, "move_parent" could result in the root moving towards an older age if some descendant was shifted too far towards the root.

Details

The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The input tree does not need to be ultrametric, but edge lengths are interpreted as time. If edge lengths are missing from the tree, it is assumed that each edge has length 1.

All tips, nodes and edges are kept and indexed as in the input tree; the only thing that changes are the edgen lengths.

Note that excessive shifting can result in negative edge lengths, which can be corrected in a variety of alternative ways (see option negative_edge_lengths). However, to avoid changing the overall span of the tree (root age and tip times) in an effort to fix negative edge lengths, you should generally not shift a clade beyond the boundaries of the tree (i.e., resulting in a negative time or a time beyond its descending tips).

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, specifying whether the operation was successful. If FALSE, an additional variable error is returned, briefly specifying the error, but all other return variables may be undefined.

tree

A new rooted tree of class "phylo", representing the tree with shifted clade times.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

get_all_distances_to_root, trim_tree_at_height, get_tree_span

Examples

# generate a random tree, include node names
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                            max_tips=20,
                            node_basename="node.")$tree

# shift a few nodes backward in time,
# changing as few of the remaining node timings as possible
clades_to_shift = c("node.2",   "node.5",   "node.6")
time_shifts     = c(-0.5,       -0.2,       -0.3)
new_tree        = shift_clade_times(tree, 
                                    clades_to_shift, 
                                    time_shifts,
                                    shift_descendants=FALSE,
                                    negative_edge_lengths="move_parent")$tree

Simulate a Brownian motion model for multivariate trait co-evolution.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a Brownian motion (BM) model for the co-evolution of one or more continuous (numeric) unbounded traits, simulate random outcomes of the model on all nodes and/or tips of the tree. The function traverses nodes from root to tips and randomly assigns a multivariate state to each node or tip based on its parent's previously assigned state and the specified model parameters. The generated states have joint distributions consistent with the multivariate BM model. Optionally, multiple independent simulations can be performed using the same model.

Usage

simulate_bm_model(tree, diffusivity=NULL, sigma=NULL,
                  include_tips=TRUE, include_nodes=TRUE, 
                  root_states=NULL, Nsimulations=1, drop_dims=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

diffusivity

Either NULL, or a single number, or a 2D quadratic positive definite symmetric matrix of size Ntraits x Ntraits. Diffusivity matrix ("DD") of the multivariate Brownian motion model (in units trait^2/edge_length). The convention is that if the root's state is fixed, then the covariance matrix of a node's state at distance LL from the root will be 2LD2LD (see mathematical details below).

sigma

Either NULL, or a single number, or a 2D matrix of size Ntraits x Ndegrees, where Ndegrees refers to the degrees of freedom of the model. Noise-amplitude coefficients of the multivariate Brownian motion model (in units trait/sqrt(edge_length)). This can be used as an alternative way to specify the Brownian motion model instead of through the diffusivity DD. Note that sigmaσT=2Dsigma\cdot\sigma^T=2D (see mathematical details below).

include_tips

Include random states for the tips. If FALSE, no states will be returned for tips.

include_nodes

Include random states for the nodes. If FALSE, no states will be returned for nodes.

root_states

Numeric matrix of size NR x Ntraits (where NR can be arbitrary), specifying the state of the root for each simulation. If NR is smaller than Nsimulations, values in root_states are recycled in rotation. If root_states is NULL or empty, then the root state is set to 0 for all traits in all simulations.

Nsimulations

Number of random independent simulations to perform. For each node and/or tip, there will be Nsimulations random states generated.

drop_dims

Logical, specifying whether singleton dimensions should be dropped from tip_states and node_states, if Nsimulations==1 and/or Ntraits==1. If drop_dims==FALSE, then tip_states and tip_nodes will always be 3D matrices.

Details

The BM model for Ntraits co-evolving traits is defined by the stochastic differential equation

dX=σdWdX = \sigma \cdot dW

where WW is a multidimensional Wiener process with Ndegrees independent components and σ\sigma is a matrix of size Ntraits x Ndegrees. Alternatively, the same model can be defined as a Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density ρ\rho:

ρt=i,jDij2ρxixj.\frac{\partial \rho}{\partial t} = \sum_{i,j}D_{ij}\frac{\partial^2\rho}{\partial x_i\partial x_j}.

The matrix DD is referred to as the diffusivity matrix (or diffusion tensor), and 2D=σσT2D=\sigma\cdot\sigma^T. Either diffusivity (DD) or sigma (σ\sigma) may be used to specify the BM model, but not both.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges*Nsimulations*Ntraits).

Value

A list with the following elements:

tip_states

Either NULL (if include_tips==FALSE), or a 3D numeric matrix of size Nsimulations x Ntips x Ntraits. The [r,c,i]-th entry of this matrix will be the state of trait i at tip c generated by the r-th simulation. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsimulations==1 and Ntraits==1, then tip_states will be a vector.

node_states

Either NULL (if include_nodes==FALSE), or a 3D numeric matrix of size Nsimulations x Nnodes x Ntraits. The [r,c,i]-th entry of this matrix will be the state of trait i at node c generated by the r-th simulation. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsimulations==1 and Ntraits==1, then node_states will be a vector.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

simulate_ou_model, simulate_rou_model, simulate_mk_model, fit_bm_model

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=10000)$tree

# Example 1: Scalar case
# - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
# simulate scalar continuous trait evolution on the tree
tip_states = simulate_bm_model(tree, diffusivity=1)$tip_states

# plot histogram of simulated tip states
hist(tip_states, breaks=20, xlab="state", main="Trait probability distribution", prob=TRUE)

# Example 2: Multivariate case
# - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
# simulate co-evolution of 2 traits with 3 degrees of freedom
Ntraits  = 2
Ndegrees = 3
sigma    = matrix(stats::rnorm(n=Ntraits*Ndegrees, mean=0, sd=1), ncol=Ndegrees)
tip_states = simulate_bm_model(tree, sigma=sigma, drop_dims=TRUE)$tip_states

# generate scatterplot of traits across tips
plot(tip_states[,1],tip_states[,2],xlab="trait 1",ylab="trait 2",cex=0.5)

Simulate a deterministic homogenous birth-death model.

Description

Given a homogenous birth-death (HBD) model, i.e., with speciation rate λ\lambda, extinction rate μ\mu and sampling fraction ρ\rho, calculate various deterministic features of the model backwards in time, such as the total diversity over time. The speciation and extinction rates may be time-dependent. “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction rates (in the literature this is sometimes referred to simply as “birth-death model”; Morlon et al. 2011). “Deterministic” refers to the fact that all calculated properties are completely determined by the model's parameters (i.e. non-random), as if an infinitely large tree was generated (aka. “continuum limit”).

Alternatively to λ\lambda, one may provide the pulled diversification rate (PDR; Louca et al. 2018) and the speciation rate at some fixed age, λ(τo)\lambda(\tau_o). Similarly, alternatively to μ\mu, one may provide the ratio of extinction over speciation rate, μ/λ\mu/\lambda. In either case, the time-profiles of λ\lambda, μ\mu, μ/λ\mu/\lambda or the PDR are specified as piecewise polynomial functions (splines), defined on a discrete grid of ages.

Usage

simulate_deterministic_hbd(LTT0,
                           oldest_age,
                           age0           = 0,
                           rho0           = 1,
                           age_grid       = NULL,
                           lambda         = NULL,
                           mu             = NULL,
                           mu_over_lambda = NULL,
                           PDR            = NULL,
                           lambda0        = NULL,
                           splines_degree = 1,
                           relative_dt    = 1e-3,
                           allow_unreal   = FALSE)

Arguments

LTT0

The assumed number of sampled extant lineages at age0, defining the necessary initial condition for the simulation. If the HBD model is supposed to describe a specific timetree, then LTT0 should correspond to the number of lineages in the tree ("lineages through time") at age age0.

oldest_age

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the oldest time before present (“age”) to include in the simulation.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the age at which LTT0, lambda0 and rho are given. Typically this will be 0, i.e., corresponding to the present.

rho0

Numeric between 0 (exclusive) and 1 (inclusive), specifying the sampling fraction of the tree at age0, i.e. the fraction of lineages extant at age0 that are included in the tree (aka. "rarefaction"). Note that if rho0<1, lineages extant at age0 are assumed to have been sampled randomly at equal probabilities. Can also be NULL, in which case rho0=1 is assumed.

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing discrete ages (time before present) on which either λ\lambda and μ\mu, or the PDR and μ\mu, are specified. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and must cover at least the full considered age interval (from age0 to oldest_age). Can also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case the speciation rate, extinction rate and PDR are assumed to be time-independent.

lambda

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing speciation rates (λ\lambda, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. Speciation rates should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). If NULL, then PDR and lambda0 must be provided.

mu

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing extinction rates (μ\mu, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. Extinction rates should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Either mu or mu_over_lambda must be provided, but not both.

mu_over_lambda

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing the ratio of extinction rates over speciation rates (μ/λ\mu/\lambda) at the ages listed in age_grid. These ratios should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). Either mu or mu_over_lambda must be provided, but not both.

PDR

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing pulled diversification rates (in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. PDRs can be negative or positive, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). If NULL, then lambda must be provided.

lambda0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the speciation rate (in units 1/time) at age0. Either lambda0 or lambda must be provided, but not both.

splines_degree

Integer, either 0,1,2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the provided lambda, mu and PDR between grid points in age_grid. For example, if splines_degree==1, then the provided lambda, mu and PDR are interpreted as piecewise-linear curves; if splines_degree==2 they are interpreted as quadratic splines; if splines_degree==3 they are interpreted as cubic splines. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on.

relative_dt

Strictly positive numeric (unitless), specifying the maximum relative time step allowed for integration over time. Smaller values increase integration accuracy but increase computation time. Typical values are 0.0001-0.001. The default is usually sufficient.

allow_unreal

Logical, specifying whether HBD models with unrealistic parameters (e.g., negative μ\mu) should be supported. This may be desired for example when examining model congruence classes with negative μ\mu.

Details

This function supports the following alternative parameterizations of HBD models:

  • Using the speciation rate λ\lambda and extinction rate μ\mu.

  • Using the speciation rate λ\lambda and the ratio μ/λ\mu/\lambda.

  • Using the pulled diversification rate (PDR), the extinction rate and the speciation rate given at some fixed age0 (i.e. lambda0).

  • Using the PDR, the ratio μ/λ\mu/\lambda and the speciation rate at some fixed age0.

The PDR is defined as PDR=λμ+λ1dλ/dτPDR = \lambda-\mu+\lambda^{-1}d\lambda/d\tau, where τ\tau is age (time before present). To avoid ambiguities, only one of the above parameterizations is accepted at a time. The sampling fraction at age0 (i.e., rho0) should always be provided; setting it to NULL is equivalent to setting it to 1.

Note that in the literature the sampling fraction usually refers to the fraction of lineages extant at present-day that have been sampled (included in the tree); this present-day sampling fraction is then used to parameterize birth-death cladogenic models. The sampling fraction can however be generalized to past times, by defining it as the probability that a lineage extant at any given time is included in the tree. The simulation function presented here allows for specifying this generalized sampling fraction at any age of choice, not just present-day.

The simulated LTT refers to a hypothetical tree sampled at age age_grid[1], i.e. LTT(t) will be the number of lineages extant at age t that survived until age age_grid[1] and have been sampled, given that the fraction of sampled extant lineages at age0 is rho0. Similarly, the returned Pextinct(t) (see below) is the probability that a lineage extant at age t would not survive until age_grid[1]. The same convention is used for the returned variables Pmissing, shadow_diversity, PER, PSR, SER and PND.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the calculation was successful. If FALSE, then the returned list includes an additional 'error' element (character) providing a description of the error; all other return variables may be undefined.

ages

Numerical vector of size NG, listing discrete ages (time before present) on which all returned time-curves are specified. Listed ages will be in ascending order, will cover exactly the range age_grid[1] - oldest_age, may be irregularly spaced, and may be finer than the original provided age_grid. Note that ages[1] corresponds to the latest time point (closer to the tips), while ages[NG] corresponds to the oldest time point (oldest_age).

total_diversity

Numerical vector of size NG, listing the predicted (deterministic) total diversity (number of extant species, denoted NN) at the ages given in ages[].

shadow_diversity

Numerical vector of size NG, listing the predicted (deterministic) “shadow diversity” at the ages given in ages[]. The shadow diversity is defined as Ns=Nρ(τo)λ(τo)/λN_s=N\cdot \rho(\tau_o)\lambda(\tau_o)/\lambda, where τo\tau_o is age0.

Pmissing

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the probability that a lineage, extant at a given age, will be absent from the tree either due to extinction or due to incomplete sampling.

Pextinct

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the probability that a lineage, extant at a given age, will be fully extinct at present. Note that always Pextinct<=Pmissing.

LTT

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the number of lineages represented in the tree at any given age, also known as “lineages-through-time” (LTT) curve. Note that LTT at age0 will be equal to LTT, and that values in LTT will be non-increasing with age.

lambda

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the speciation rate (in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[].

mu

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the extinction rate (in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[].

diversification_rate

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the net diversification rate (λμ\lambda-\mu) at the ages given in ages[].

PDR

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the pulled diversification rate (PDR, in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[].

PND

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the pulled normalized diversity (PND, in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[]. The PND is defined as PND=(N/N(τo))λ(τo)/λPND=(N/N(\tau_o))\cdot\lambda(\tau_o)/\lambda.

SER

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the “shadow extinction rate” (SER, in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[]. The SER is defined as SER=ρ(τo)λ(τo)PDRSER=\rho(\tau_o)\lambda(\tau_o)-PDR.

PER

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the “pulled extinction rate” (PER, in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[]. The PER is defined as SER=λ(τo)PDRSER=\lambda(\tau_o)-PDR (Louca et al. 2018).

PSR

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the “pulled speciation rate” (PSR, in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[]. The PSR is defined as PSR=λ(1Pmissing)PSR=\lambda\cdot(1-Pmissing).

rholambda0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the product of the sampling fraction and the speciation rate at age0, ρλ(τo)\rho\cdot\lambda(\tau_o).

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

H. Morlon, T. L. Parsons, J. B. Plotkin (2011). Reconciling molecular phylogenies with the fossil record. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108:16327-16332.

S. Louca et al. (2018). Bacterial diversification through geological time. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 2:1458-1467.

See Also

loglikelihood_hbd

Examples

# define an HBD model with exponentially decreasing speciation/extinction rates
Ntips     = 1000
beta      = 0.01 # exponential decay rate of lambda over time
oldest_age= 10
age_grid  = seq(from=0,to=oldest_age,by=0.1) # choose a sufficiently fine age grid
lambda    = 1*exp(beta*age_grid) # define lambda on the age grid
mu        = 0.2*lambda # assume similarly shaped but smaller mu

# simulate deterministic HBD model
simulation = simulate_deterministic_hbd(LTT0       = Ntips, 
                                        oldest_age = oldest_age, 
                                        rho0       = 0.5,
                                        age_grid   = age_grid,
                                        lambda     = lambda,
                                        mu         = mu)

# plot deterministic LTT
plot( x = simulation$ages, y = simulation$LTT, type='l',
      main='dLTT', xlab='age', ylab='lineages')

Simulate a deterministic homogenous birth-death-sampling model.

Description

Given a homogenous birth-death-sampling (HBDS) model, i.e., with speciation rate λ\lambda, extinction rate μ\mu, continuous (Poissonian) sampling rate ψ\psi and retention probability κ\kappa, calculate various deterministic features of the model backwards in time, such as the total population size and the LTT over time. Continuously sampled lineages are kept in the pool of extant lineages at probability κ\kappa. The variables λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa may depend on time. In addition, the model can include concentrated sampling attempts at a finite set of discrete time points t1,..,tmt_1,..,t_m. “Homogenous” refers to the assumption that, at any given moment in time, all lineages exhibit the same speciation/extinction/sampling rates and retention proabbility. Every HBDS model is thus defined based on the values that λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa take over time, as well as the sampling probabilities ψ1,..,ψm\psi_1,..,\psi_m and retention probabilities κ1,..,κm\kappa_1,..,\kappa_m during the concentrated sampling attempts. Special cases of this model are sometimes known as “birth-death-skyline plots” in the literature (Stadler 2013). In epidemiology, these models are often used to describe the phylogenies of viral strains sampled over the course of the epidemic. A “concentrated sampling attempt” is a brief but intensified sampling period that lasted much less than the typical timescales of speciation/extinction. “Deterministic” refers to the fact that all calculated properties are completely determined by the model's parameters (i.e. non-random), as if an infinitely large tree was generated (aka. “continuum limit”). The time-profiles of λ\lambda, μ\mu, ψ\psi and κ\kappa are specified as piecewise polynomial curves (splines), defined on a discrete grid of ages.

Usage

simulate_deterministic_hbds(age_grid                        = NULL,
                            lambda                          = NULL,
                            mu                              = NULL,
                            psi                             = NULL,
                            kappa                           = NULL,
                            splines_degree                  = 1,
                            CSA_ages                        = NULL,
                            CSA_probs                       = NULL,
                            CSA_kappas                      = NULL,
                            requested_ages                  = NULL,
                            age0                            = 0,
                            N0                              = NULL,
                            LTT0                            = NULL,
                            ODE_relative_dt                 = 0.001,
                            ODE_relative_dy                 = 1e-4)

Arguments

age_grid

Numeric vector, listing discrete ages (time before present) on which either λ\lambda and μ\mu, or the PDR and μ\mu, are specified. Listed ages must be strictly increasing, and must cover at least the full considered age interval (from age0 to oldest_age). Can also be NULL or a vector of size 1, in which case the speciation rate, extinction rate and PDR are assumed to be time-independent.

lambda

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing speciation rates (λ\lambda, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. Speciation rates should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree).

mu

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing extinction rates (μ\mu, in units 1/time) at the ages listed in age_grid. Extinction rates should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree).

psi

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing the continuous (Poissonian) sampling rate at the ages listed in age_grid. Sampling rates should be non-negative, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree).

kappa

Numeric vector, of the same size as age_grid (or size 1 if age_grid==NULL), listing the retention probabilities following Poissonian sampling events, at the ages listed in age_grid. The listed values must be true probabilities, i.e. between 0 and 1, and are assumed to vary polynomially between grid points (see argument splines_degree). The retention probability is the probability that a continuously sampled lineage remains in the pool of extant lineages. Note that many epidemiological models assume kappa to be zero.

splines_degree

Integer, either 0,1,2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the provided lambda, mu, psi and kappa between grid points in age_grid. For example, if splines_degree==1, then the provided lambda, mu, psi and kappa are interpreted as piecewise-linear curves; if splines_degree==2 they are interpreted as quadratic splines; if splines_degree==3 they are interpreted as cubic splines. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on.

CSA_ages

Optional numeric vector, listing the ages of concentrated sampling attempts, in ascending order. Concentrated sampling is performed in addition to any continuous (Poissonian) sampling specified by psi.

CSA_probs

Optional numeric vector of the same size as CSA_ages, listing sampling probabilities at each concentrated sampling attempt. Note that in contrast to the sampling rates psi, the CSA_probs are interpreted as probabilities and must thus be between 0 and 1. CSA_probs must be provided if and only if CSA_ages is provided.

CSA_kappas

Optional numeric vector of the same size as CSA_ages, listing retention probabilities at each concentrated sampling event, i.e. the probability at which a sampled lineage is kept in the pool of extant lineages. Note that the CSA_kappas are probabilities and must thus be between 0 and 1. CSA_kappas must be provided if and only if CSA_ages is provided.

requested_ages

Optional numeric vector, listing ages (in ascending order) at which the various model variables are requested. If NULL, it will be set to age_grid.

age0

Non-negative numeric, specifying the age at which LTT0 and pop_size0 are specified. Typically this will be 0, i.e., corresponding to the present.

N0

Positive numeric, specifying the number of extant species (sampled or not) at age0. Used to determine the "scaling factor" for the returned population sizes and LTT. Either pop_size0 or LTT0 must be provided, but not both.

LTT0

Positive numeric, specifying the number of lineages present in the tree at age0. Used to determine the "scaling factor" for the returned population sizes and LTT. Either pop_size0 or LTT0 must be provided, but not both.

ODE_relative_dt

Positive unitless number, specifying the default relative time step for internally used ordinary differential equation solvers. Typical values are 0.01-0.001.

ODE_relative_dy

Positive unitless number, specifying the relative difference between subsequent simulated and interpolated values, in internally used ODE solvers. Typical values are 1e-2 to 1e-5. A smaller ODE_relative_dy increases interpolation accuracy, but also increases memory requirements and adds runtime (scaling with the tree's age span, not with Ntips).

Details

The simulated LTT refers to a hypothetical tree sampled at age 0, i.e. LTT(t) will be the number of lineages extant at age t that survived and were sampled until by the present day. Note that if a concentrated sampling attempt occurs at age τ\tau, then LTT(τ\tau) is the number of lineages in the tree right before the occurrence of the sampling attempt, i.e., in the limit where τ\tau is approached from above.

Note that in this function age always refers to time before present, i.e., present day age is 0, and age increases towards the root.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the calculation was successful. If FALSE, then the returned list includes an additional 'error' element (character) providing a description of the error; all other return variables may be undefined.

ages

Numerical vector of size NG, listing discrete ages (time before present) on which all returned time-curves are specified. Will be equal to requested_ages, if the latter was provided.

total_diversity

Numerical vector of size NG, listing the predicted (deterministic) total diversity (number of extant species, denoted NN) at the ages given in ages[].

LTT

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the number of lineages represented in the tree at any given age, also known as “lineages-through-time” (LTT) curve. Note that LTT at age0 will be equal to LTT0 (if the latter was provided).

nLTT

Numeric vector of size NG, listing values of the normalized LTT at ages ages[]. The nLTT is calculated by dividing the LTT by its area-under-the-curve (AUC). The AUC is calculated by integrating the LTT over the time spanned by ages and using the trapezoid rule. Hence, the exact value of the AUC and of the nLTT depends on the span and resolution of ages[]. If you want the AUC to accurately refer to the entire area under the curve (i.e. across the full real axis), you should specify a sufficiently wide and sufficiently fine age grid (e.g., via requested_ages).

Pmissing

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the probability that a lineage, extant at a given age, will not be represented in the tree.

lambda

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the speciation rates at the ages given in ages[].

mu

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the extinctions rates at the ages given in ages[].

psi

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the Poissonian sampling rates at the ages given in ages[].

kappa

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the retention probabilities (for continuously sampled lineages) at the ages given in ages[].

PDR

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the pulled diversification rate (PDR, in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[].

IPRP

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the age-integrated pulled diversification rate at the ages given in ages[], i.e. IPDR(t)=0tPDR(s)dsIPDR(t)=\int_0^t PDR(s)ds.

PSR

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the “pulled speciation rate” (PSR, in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[]. The PSR is defined as PSR=λ(1Pmissing)PSR=\lambda\cdot(1-Pmissing).

PRP

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the “pulled retention probability” (PRP) at the ages given in ages[]. The PRP is defined as PRP=κ(1Pmissing)PRP=\kappa\cdot(1-Pmissing).

diversification_rate

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the net diversification rate (in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[].

branching_density

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the deterministic branching density (PSR * nLTT, in units nodes/time) at the ages given in ages[].

sampling_density

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the deterministic sampling density (ψN/AUC\psi\cdot N/AUC, in units tips/time, where AUC is the area-under-the-curve calculated for the LTT) at the ages given in ages[].

lambda_psi

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the product of the speciation rate and Poissonian sampling rate (in units 1/time^2) at the ages given in ages[].

kappa_psi

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the product of the continuous sampling rate and the continuous retention probability (in units 1/time) at the ages given in ages[].

Reff

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the effective reproduction ratio (Re=λ/(μ+ψ(1κ))R_e=\lambda/(\mu+\psi(1-\kappa))) at the ages given in ages[].

removal_rate

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the total removal rate (μ+ψ\mu+\psi), also known as “become uninfectious rate”, at the ages given in ages[].

sampling_proportion

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the instantaneous sampling proportion (ψ/(μ+ψ)\psi/(\mu+\psi)) at the ages given in ages[].

CSA_pulled_probs

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the pulled concentrated sampling probabilities, ρ~k=ρk/(1E)\tilde{\rho}_k=\rho_k/(1-E).

CSA_psis

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the continuous (Poissonian) sampling rates during the concentrated sampling attempts, ψ(t1),..,ψ(tm)\psi(t_1),..,\psi(t_m).

CSA_PSRs

Numeric vector of size NG, listing the pulled speciation rates during the concentrated sampling attempts.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

T. Stadler, D. Kuehnert, S. Bonhoeffer, A. J. Drummond (2013). Birth-death skyline plot reveals temporal changes of epidemic spread in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). PNAS. 110:228-233.

See Also

generate_tree_hbds, fit_hbds_model_parametric, simulate_deterministic_hbd

Examples

# define an HBDS model with exponentially decreasing speciation/extinction rates
# and constant Poissonian sampling rate psi
oldest_age= 10
age_grid  = seq(from=0,to=oldest_age,by=0.1) # choose a sufficiently fine age grid
lambda    = 1*exp(0.01*age_grid) # define lambda on the age grid
mu        = 0.2*lambda # assume similarly shaped but smaller mu

# simulate deterministic HBD model
# scale LTT such that it is 100 at age 1
simulation = simulate_deterministic_hbds(age_grid   = age_grid,
                                         lambda     = lambda,
                                         mu         = mu,
                                         psi        = 0.1,
                                         age0       = 1,
                                         LTT0       = 100)
# plot deterministic LTT
plot( x = simulation$ages, y = simulation$LTT, type='l',
      main='dLTT', xlab='age', ylab='lineages', xlim=c(oldest_age,0))

Simulate a deterministic uniform speciation/extinction model.

Description

Simulate a speciation/extinction cladogenic model for diversity over time, in the derministic limit. Speciation (birth) and extinction (death) rates can each be constant or power-law functions of the number of extant species. For example,

B=I+FNE,B = I + F\cdot N^E,

where BB is the birth rate, II is the intercept, FF is the power-law factor, NN is the current number of extant species and EE is the power-law exponent. Optionally, the model can account for incomplete taxon sampling (rarefaction of tips) and for the effects of collapsing a tree at a non-zero resolution (i.e. clustering closely related tips into a single tip).

Usage

simulate_diversification_model( times,
                                parameters            = list(),
                                added_rates_times     = NULL,
                                added_birth_rates_pc  = NULL,
                                added_death_rates_pc  = NULL,
                                added_periodic        = FALSE,
                                start_time            = NULL,
                                final_time            = NULL,
                                start_diversity	      = 1,
                                final_diversity       = NULL,
                                reverse               = FALSE,
                                include_coalescent    = FALSE,
                                include_event_rates   = FALSE,
                                include_Nevents       = FALSE,
                                max_runtime           = NULL)

Arguments

times

Numeric vector, listing the times for which to calculate diversities, as predicted by the model. Values must be in ascending order.

parameters

A named list specifying the birth-death model parameters, with one or more of the following entries:

  • birth_rate_intercept: Non-negative number. The intercept of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. In units 1/time.

  • birth_rate_factor: Non-negative number. The power-law factor of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. In units 1/time.

  • birth_rate_exponent: Numeric. The power-law exponent of the Poissonian rate at which new species (tips) are added. Unitless.

  • death_rate_intercept: Non-negative number. The intercept of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. In units 1/time.

  • death_rate_factor: Non-negative number. The power-law factor of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. In units 1/time.

  • death_rate_exponent: Numeric. The power-law exponent of the Poissonian rate at which extant species (tips) go extinct. Unitless.

  • resolution: Non-negative number. Time resolution at which the final tree is assumed to be collapsed. Units are time units. E.g. if this is 10, then all nodes of age 10 or less, are assumed to be collapsed into (represented by) a single tip. This can be used to model OTU trees, obtained after clustering strains by some similarity (=age) threshold. Set to 0 to disable collapsing. If left unspecified, this is set to 0.

  • rarefaction: Numeric between 0 and 1, specifying the fraction of tips kept in the final tree after random subsampling. Rarefaction is assumed to occur after collapsing at the specified resolution (if applicable). This can be used to model incomplete taxon sampling. If left unspecified, this is set to 1.

added_rates_times

Numeric vector, listing time points (in ascending order) for a custom per-capita birth and/or death rates time series (see added_birth_rates_pc and added_death_rates_pc below). Can also be NULL, in which case the custom time series are ignored.

added_birth_rates_pc

Numeric vector of the same size as added_rates_times, listing per-capita birth rates to be added to the power law part. Added rates are interpolated linearly between time points in added_rates_times. Can also be NULL, in which case this option is ignored and birth rates are purely described by the power law.

added_death_rates_pc

Numeric vector of the same size as added_rates_times, listing per-capita death rates to be added to the power law part. Added rates are interpolated linearly between time points in added_rates_times. Can also be NULL, in which case this option is ignored and death rates are purely described by the power law.

added_periodic

Logical, indicating whether added_birth_rates_pc and added_death_rates_pc should be extended periodically if needed (i.e. if not defined for the entire simulation time). If FALSE, added birth & death rates are extended with zeros.

start_time

Numeric. Start time of the tree (<=times[1]). Can also be NULL, in which case it is set to the first value in times.

final_time

Numeric. Final (ending) time of the tree (>=max(times)). Can also be NULL, in which case it is set to the last value in times.

start_diversity

Numeric. Total diversity at start_time. Only relevant if reverse==FALSE.

final_diversity

Numeric. Total diversity at final_time, i.e. the final diversity of the tree (total extant species at age 0). Only relevant if reverse==TRUE.

reverse

Logical. If TRUE, then the tree model is simulated in backward time direction. In that case, final_diversity is interpreted as the known diversity at the last time point, and all diversities at previous time points are calculated based on the model. If FALSE, then the model is simulated in forward-time, with initial diversity given by start_diversity.

include_coalescent

Logical, specifying whether the diversity corresponding to a coalescent tree (i.e. the tree spanning only extant tips) should also be calculated. If coalescent==TRUE and the death rate is non-zero, then the coalescent diversities will generally be lower than the total diversities.

include_event_rates

Logical. If TRUE, then the birth (speciation) and death (extinction) rates (for each time point) are included as returned values. This comes at a moderate computational overhead.

include_Nevents

Logical. If TRUE, then the cumulative birth (speciation) and death (extinction) events (for each time point) are included as returned values. This comes at a moderate computational overhead.

max_runtime

Numeric. Maximum runtime (in seconds) allowed for the simulation. If this time is surpassed, the simulation aborts.

Details

The simulation is deterministic, meaning that diversification is modeled using ordinary differential equations, not as a stochastic process. The simulation essentially computes the deterministic diversity over time, not an actual tree. For stochastic cladogenic simulations yielding a random tree, see generate_random_tree and simulate_dsse.

In the special case where per-capita birth and death rates are constant (i.e. I=0I=0 and E=1E=1 for birth and death rates), this function uses an explicit analytical solution to the underlying differential equations, and is thus much faster than in the general case.

If rarefaction<1 and resolution>0, collapsing of closely related tips (at the resolution specified) is assumed to take place prior to rarefaction (i.e., subsampling applies to the already collapsed tips).

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the simulation was successful. If the simulation aborted due to runtime constraints (option max_runtime), success will be FALSE.

total_diversities

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the total diversity (extant at each the time) for each time point in times.

coalescent_diversities

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the coalescent diversity (i.e. as seen in the coalescent tree spanning only extant species) for each time point in times. Only included if include_coalescent==TRUE.

birth_rates

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the speciation (birth) rate at each time point. Only included if include_event_rates==TRUE.

death_rates

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the extinction (death) rate at each time point. Only included if include_event_rates==TRUE.

Nbirths

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the cumulative number of speciation (birth) events up to each time point. Only included if include_Nevents==TRUE.

Ndeaths

Numeric vector of the same size as times, listing the cumulative number of extinction (death) events up to each time point. Only included if include_Nevents==TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

generate_random_tree, count_lineages_through_time

Examples

# Generate a tree
max_time = 100
parameters = list(birth_rate_intercept  = 10, 
                  birth_rate_factor     = 0,
                  birth_rate_exponent   = 0,
                  death_rate_intercept  = 0,
                  death_rate_factor     = 0,
                  death_rate_exponent   = 0,
                  resolution            = 20,
                  rarefaction           = 0.5)
generator = generate_random_tree(parameters,max_time=max_time)
tree = generator$tree
final_total_diversity = length(tree$tip.label)+generator$Nrarefied+generator$Ncollapsed

# Calculate diversity-vs-time curve for the tree
times = seq(from=0,to=0.99*max_time,length.out=50)
tree_diversities = count_lineages_through_time(tree, times=times)$lineages

# simulate diversity curve based on deterministic model
simulation = simulate_diversification_model(times,
                                            parameters,
                                            reverse=TRUE,
                                            final_diversity=final_total_diversity,
                                            include_coalescent=TRUE)
model_diversities = simulation$coalescent_diversities

# compare diversities in the tree to the simulated ones
plot(tree_diversities,model_diversities,xlab="tree diversities",ylab="simulated diversities")
abline(a=0,b=1,col="#A0A0A0") # show diagonal for reference

Simulate a Discrete-State Speciation and Extinction (dSSE) model.

Description

Simulate a random phylogenetic tree in forward time based on a Poissonian speciation/extinction (birth/death) process, with optional Poissonian sampling over time, whereby birth/death/sampling rates are determined by a co-evolving discrete trait. New species are added (born) by splitting of a randomly chosen extant tip. The discrete trait, whose values determine birth/death/sampling rates over time, can evolve in two modes: (A) Anagenetically, i.e. according to a discrete-space continuous-time Markov process along each edge, with fixed transition rates between states, and/or (B) cladogenetically, i.e. according to fixed transition probabilities between states at each speciation event. Poissonian lineage sampling is assumed to lead to a removal of lineages from the pool of extant tips (as is common in epidemiology).

This model class includes the Multiple State Speciation and Extinction (MuSSE) model described by FitzJohn et al. (2009), as well as the Cladogenetic SSE (ClaSSE) model described by Goldberg and Igis (2012). Optionally, the model can be turned into a Hidden State Speciation and Extinction model (Beaulieu and O'meara, 2016), by replacing the simulated tip/node states with "proxy" states, thus hiding the original states actually influencing speciation/extinction rates.

Usage

simulate_dsse( Nstates,
               NPstates                 = NULL,
               proxy_map                = NULL,
               parameters               = list(),
               start_state              = NULL,
               max_tips                 = NULL, 
               max_extant_tips          = NULL,
               max_Psampled_tips        = NULL,
               max_time                 = NULL,
               max_time_eq              = NULL,
               max_events               = NULL,
               sampling_fractions       = NULL,
               reveal_fractions         = NULL,
               sampling_rates           = NULL,
               coalescent               = TRUE,
               as_generations           = FALSE,
               no_full_extinction       = TRUE,
               tip_basename             = "", 
               node_basename            = NULL,
               include_event_times      = FALSE,
               include_rates            = FALSE,
               include_labels           = TRUE)
               
simulate_musse(Nstates,  NPstates = NULL, proxy_map = NULL, 
            parameters = list(), start_state = NULL, 
            max_tips = NULL, max_extant_tips = NULL, max_Psampled_tips = NULL,
            max_time = NULL, max_time_eq = NULL, max_events = NULL, 
            sampling_fractions = NULL, reveal_fractions = NULL, sampling_rates = NULL,
            coalescent = TRUE, as_generations = FALSE, no_full_extinction = TRUE, 
            tip_basename = "", node_basename = NULL, 
            include_event_times = FALSE, include_rates = FALSE, include_labels = TRUE)

Arguments

Nstates

Integer, specifying the number of possible discrete states a tip can have, influencing speciation/extinction rates. For example, if Nstates==2 then this corresponds to the common Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) model (Maddison et al., 2007). In the case of a HiSSE model, Nstates refers to the total number of diversification rate categories, as described by Beaulieu and O'meara (2016).

NPstates

Integer, optionally specifying a number of "proxy-states" that are observed instead of the underlying speciation/extinction-modulating states. To simulate a HiSSE model, this should be smaller than Nstates. Each state corresponds to a different proxy-state, as defined using the variable proxy_map (see below). For BiSSE/MuSSE with no hidden states, NPstates can be set to either NULL or equal to Nstates, and proxy-states are equivalent to states.

proxy_map

Integer vector of size Nstates and with values in 1,..NPstates, specifying the correspondence between states (i.e. diversification-rate categories) and (observed) proxy-states, in a HiSSE model. Specifically, proxy_map[s] indicates which proxy-state the state s is represented by. Each proxy-state can represent multiple states (i.e. proxies are ambiguous), but each state must be represented by exactly one proxy-state. For non-HiSSE models, set this to NULL. See below for more details.

parameters

A named list specifying the dSSE model parameters, such as the anagenetic and/or cladogenetic transition rates between states and the state-dependent birth/death rates (see details below).

start_state

Integer within 1,..,Nstates, specifying the initial state, i.e. of the first lineage created. If left unspecified, this is chosen randomly and uniformly among all possible states.

max_tips

Integer, maximum number of tips (extant + Poissonian-sampled if coalescent==TRUE, or extant+extinct+Poissonian-sampled if coalescent==FALSE) in the generated tree, shortly before any present-day sampling. If NULL or <=0, the number of tips is not limited, so you should use another stopping criterion such as max_time and/or max_time_eq and/or max_events to stop the simulation.

max_extant_tips

Integer, maximum number of extant tips in the generated tree, shortly before to any present-day sampling. If NULL or <=0, this constraint is ignored.

max_Psampled_tips

Integer, maximum number of Poissonian-sampled tips in the generated tree. If NULL or <=0, this constraint is ignored.

max_time

Numeric, maximum duration of the simulation. If NULL or <=0, this constraint is ignored.

max_time_eq

Numeric, maximum duration of the simulation, counting from the first point at which speciation/extinction equilibrium is reached, i.e. when (birth rate - death rate) changed sign for the first time. If NULL or <0, this constraint is ignored.

max_events

Integer, maximum number of speciation/extinction/transition events before halting the simulation. If NULL, this constraint is ignored.

sampling_fractions

A single number, or a numeric vector of size NPstates, listing the sampling fractions for extant tips at the end of the simulation (i.e., at "present-day")", depending on proxy-state. sampling_fractions[p] is the probability of including an extant tip in the final tree, if its proxy-state is p. If a single number, all extant tips are sampled with the same probability, i.e. regardless of their proxy-state. If NULL, this is the same as setting sampling_fractions to 1, i.e., all extant tips are sampled at the end of the simulation.

reveal_fractions

Numeric vector of size NPstates, listing reveal fractions of tip proxy-states, depending on proxy state. reveal_fractions[p] is the probability of knowing a tip's proxy-state, if its proxy state is p. Can also be NULL, in which case all tip proxy states will be known.

sampling_rates

Numeric vector of size NPstates, listing Poissonian sampling rates of lineages over time, depending on proxy state. Hence, sampling_rates[p] is the sampling rate of a lineage if its proxy state is p. Can also be a single numeric, thus applying the same sampling rate to all lineages regardless of proxy state. Can also be NULL, in which case Poissonian sampling is not included.

coalescent

Logical, specifying whether only the coalescent tree (i.e. the tree spanning the sampled tips) should be returned. If coalescent==FALSE and the death rate is non-zero, then the tree may include extinct tips.

as_generations

Logical, specifying whether edge lengths should correspond to generations. If FALSE, then edge lengths correspond to time.

no_full_extinction

Logical, specifying whether to prevent complete extinction of the tree. Full extinction is prevented by temporarily disabling extinctions and Poissonian samplings whenever the number of extant tips is 1. if no_full_extinction==FALSE and death rates and/or Poissonian sampling rates are non-zero, the tree may go extinct during the simulation; if coalescent==TRUE, then the returned could end up empty, hence the function will return unsuccessfully (i.e. success will be FALSE). By default no_full_extinction is TRUE, however in some special cases it may be desirable to allow full extinctions to ensure that the generated trees are statistically distributed exactly according to the underlying cladogenetic model.

tip_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for tip labels (e.g. "tip."). If empty (""), then tip labels will be integers "1", "2" and so on.

node_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for node labels (e.g. "node."). If NULL, no node labels will be included in the tree.

include_event_times

Logical. If TRUE, then the times of speciation and extinction events (each in order of occurrence) will also be returned.

include_rates

Logical. If TRUE, then the per-capita birth & death rates of all tips and nodes will also be returned.

include_labels

Logical, specifying whether to include tip-labels and node-labels (if available) as names in the returned state vectors (e.g. tip_states and node_states). In any case, returned states are always listed in the same order as tips and nodes in the tree. Setting this to FALSE may increase computational efficiency for situations where labels are not required.

Details

The function simulate_dsse can be used to simulate a diversification + discrete-trait evolutionary process, in which birth/death (speciation/extinction) and Poissonian sampling rates at each tip are determined by a tip's current "state". Lineages can transition between states anagenetically along each edge (according to fixed Markov transition rates) and/or cladogenetically at each speciation event (according to fixed transition probabilities). In addition to Poissonian sampling through time (commonly included in epidemiological models), extant tips can also be sampled at the end of the simulation (i.e. at "present-day") according to some state-specific sampling_fractions (common in macroevolution).

The function simulate_musse is a simplified variant meant to simulate MuSSE/HiSSE models in the absence of cladogenetic state transitions, and is included mainly for backward-compatibility reasons. The input arguments for simulate_musse are identical to simulate_dsse, with the exception that the parameters argument must include slightly different elements (explained below). Note that the standard MuSSE/HiSSE models published by FitzJohn et al. (2009) and Beaulieu and O'meara (2016) did not include Poissonian sampling through time, i.e. sampling of extant lineages was only done once at present-day.

For simulate_dsse, the argument parameters should be a named list including one or more of the following elements:

  • birth_rates: Numeric vector of size Nstates, listing the per-capita birth rate (speciation rate) at each state. Can also be a single number (all states have the same birth rate).

  • death_rates: Numeric vector of size Nstates, listing the per-capita death rate (extinction rate) at each state. Can also be a single number (all states have the same death rate).

  • transition_matrix_A: 2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing anagenetic transition rates between states along an edge. Hence, transition_matrix_A[r,c] is the probability rate for transitioning from state r to state c. Non-diagonal entries must be non-negative, diagonal entries must be non-positive, and the sum of each row must be zero.

  • transition_matrix_C: 2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing cladogenetic transition probabilities between states during a speciation event, seperately for each child. Hence, transition_matrix_C[r,c] is the probability that a child will have state c, conditional upon the occurrence of a speciation event, given that the parent had state r, and independently of all other children. Entries must be non-negative, and the sum of each row must be one.

For simulate_musse, the argument parameters should be a named list including one or more of the following elements:

  • birth_rates: Same as for simulate_dsse.

  • death_rates: Same as for simulate_dsse.

  • transition_matrix: 2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing anagenetic transition rates between states. This is equivalent to transition_matrix_A in simulate_dsse.

Note that this code generates trees in forward time, and halts as soon as one of the enabled halting conditions is met; the halting conditions chosen affects the precise probability distribution from which the generated trees are drawn (Stadler 2011). If at any moment during the simulation the tree only includes a single extant tip, and if no_full_extinction=TRUE, the death and sampling rate are temporarily set to zero to prevent the complete extinction of the tree. The tree will be ultrametric if coalescent==TRUE (or death rates were zero) and Poissonian sampling was not included.

HiSSE models (Beaulieu and O'meara, 2016) are closely related to BiSSE/MuSSE models, the main difference being the fact that the actual diversification-modulating states are not directly observed. Hence, this function is also able to simulate HiSSE models, with appropriate choice of the input variables Nstates, NPstates and proxy_map. For example, Nstates=4, NPstates=2 and proxy_map=c(1,2,1,2) specifies that states 1 and 3 are represented by proxy-state 1, and states 2 and 4 are represented by proxy-state 2. This is the original case described by Beaulieu and O'meara (2016); in their terminology, there would be 2 "hidden"" states ("0" and "1") and 2 "observed" (proxy) states ("A" and "B"), and the 4 diversification rate categories (Nstates=4) would be called "0A", "1A", "0B" and "1B", respectively. The somewhat different terminology used here allows for easier generalization to an arbitrary number of diversification-modulating states and an arbitrary number of proxy states. For example, if there are 6 diversification modulating states, represented by 3 proxy-states as 1->A, 2->A, 3->B, 4->C, 5->C, 6->C, then one would set Nstates=6, NPstates=3 and proxy_map=c(1,1,2,3,3,3).

The parameter transition_matrix_C can be used to define ClaSSE models (Goldberg and Igic, 2012) or BiSSE-ness models (Magnuson-Ford and Otto, 2012), although care must be taken to properly define the transition probabilities. Here, cladogenetic transitions occur at probabilities that are defined conditionally upon a speciation event, whereas in other software they may be defined as probability rates.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the simulation was successful. If FALSE, an additional element error (of type character) is included containing an explanation of the error; in that case the value of any of the other elements is undetermined.

tree

A rooted bifurcating tree of class "phylo", generated according to the specified birth/death model.

If coalescent==TRUE or if all death rates are zero, and only if as_generations==FALSE and in the absence of Poissonian sampling, then the tree will be ultrametric. If as_generations==TRUE and coalescent==FALSE, all edges will have unit length.

root_time

Numeric, giving the time at which the tree's root was first split during the simulation. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, this may be later than the first speciation event during the simulation.

final_time

Numeric, giving the final time at the end of the simulation. If coalescent==TRUE, then this may be greater than the total time span of the tree (since the root of the coalescent tree need not correspond to the first speciation event).

equilibrium_time

Numeric, giving the first time where the sign of (death rate - birth rate) changed from the beginning of the simulation, i.e. when speciation/extinction equilibrium was reached. May be infinite if the simulation stopped before reaching this point.

Nbirths

Integer vector of size Nstates, listing the total number of birth events (speciations) that occurred at each state. The sum of all entries in Nbirths may be lower than the total number of tips in the tree if death rates were non-zero and coalescent==TRUE.

Ndeaths

Integer vector of size Nstates, listing the total number of death events (extinctions) that occurred at each state.

NPsamplings

Integer vector of size Nstates, listing the total number of Poissonian sampling events that occurred at each state.

Ntransitions_A

2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing the total number of anagenetic transition events that occurred between each pair of states. For example, Ntransitions_A[1,2] is the number of anagenetic transitions (i.e., within a species) that occured from state 1 to state 2.

Ntransitions_C

2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing the total number of cladogenetic transition events that occurred between each pair of states. For example, Ntransitions_C[1,2] is the number of cladogenetic transitions (i.e., from a parent to a child) that occured from state 1 to state 2 during some speciation event. Note that each speciation event will have caused 2 transitions (one per child), and that the emergence of a child with the same state as the parent is counted as a transition between the same state (diagonal entries in Ntransitions_C).

NnonsampledExtant

Integer, specifying the number of extant tips not sampled at the end, i.e., omitted from the tree.

tip_states

Integer vector of size Ntips and with values in 1,..,Nstates, listing the state of each tip in the tree.

node_states

Integer vector of size Nnodes and with values in 1,..,Nstates, listing the state of each node in the tree.

tip_proxy_states

Integer vector of size Ntips and with values in 1,..,NPstates, listing the proxy state of each tip in the tree. Only included in the case of HiSSE models.

node_proxy_states

Integer vector of size Nnodes and with values in 1,..,NPstates, listing the proxy state of each node in the tree. Only included in the case of HiSSE models.

start_state

Integer, specifying the state of the first lineage (either provided during the function call, or generated randomly).

extant_tips

Integer vector, listing the indices of any extant tips in the tree.

extinct_tips

Integer vector, listing the indices of any extinct tips in the tree. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, this vector will be empty.

Psampled_tips

Integer vector, listing the indices of any Poissonian-sampled tips in the tree.

birth_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of speciation events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then speciation_times may be greater than the phylogenetic distance to the coalescent root. Only returned if include_event_times==TRUE.

death_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of extinction events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then speciation_times may be greater than the phylogenetic distance to the coalescent root. Only returned if include_event_times==TRUE.

Psampling_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of Poissonian sampling events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Only returned if include_event_times==TRUE.

clade_birth_rates

Numeric vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, listing the per-capita birth rate of each tip and node in the tree. Only included if include_rates==TRUE.

clade_death_rates

Numeric vector of size Ntips+Nnodes, listing the per-capita death rate of each tip and node in the tree. Only included if include_rates==TRUE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

W. P. Maddison, P. E. Midford, S. P. Otto (2007). Estimating a binary character's effect on speciation and extinction. Systematic Biology. 56:701-710.

R. G. FitzJohn, W. P. Maddison, S. P. Otto (2009). Estimating trait-dependent speciation and extinction rates from incompletely resolved phylogenies. Systematic Biology. 58:595-611

R. G. FitzJohn (2012). Diversitree: comparative phylogenetic analyses of diversification in R. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 3:1084-1092

E. E. Goldberg, B. Igic (2012). Tempo and mode in plant breeding system evolution. Evolution. 66:3701-3709.

K. Magnuson-Ford, S. P. Otto (2012). Linking the investigations of character evolution and species diversification. The American Naturalist. 180:225-245.

J. M. Beaulieu and B. C. O'Meara (2016). Detecting hidden diversification shifts in models of trait-dependent speciation and extinction. Systematic Biology. 65:583-601.

T. Stadler (2011). Simulating trees with a fixed number of extant species. Systematic Biology. 60:676-684.

S. Louca and M. W. Pennell (2020). A general and efficient algorithm for the likelihood of diversification and discrete-trait evolutionary models. Systematic Biology. 69:545-556.

See Also

simulate_tdsse, fit_musse

Examples

# Simulate a tree under a classical BiSSE model
# I.e., anagenetic transitions between two states, no Poissonian sampling through time.
A = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates=2, rate_model="ER", max_rate=0.1)
parameters = list(birth_rates         = c(1,1.5),
                  death_rates         = 0.5,
                  transition_matrix_A = A)
simulation = simulate_dsse( Nstates         = 2, 
                            parameters      = parameters, 
                            max_extant_tips = 1000, 
                            include_rates   = TRUE)
tree       = simulation$tree
Ntips      = length(tree$tip.label)

# plot distribution of per-capita birth rates of tips
rates = simulation$clade_birth_rates[1:Ntips]
barplot(table(rates)/length(rates), 
        xlab="rate", 
        main="Distribution of pc birth rates across tips (BiSSE model)")

Simulate an Mk model for discrete trait evolution.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, a fixed-rates continuous-time Markov model for the evolution of a discrete trait ("Mk model", described by a transition matrix) and a probability vector for the root, simulate random outcomes of the model on all nodes and/or tips of the tree. The function traverses nodes from root to tips and randomly assigns a state to each node or tip based on its parent's previously assigned state and the specified transition rates between states. The generated states have joint distributions consistent with the Markov model. Optionally, multiple independent simulations can be performed using the same model.

Usage

simulate_mk_model(tree, Q, root_probabilities="stationary",
                  include_tips=TRUE, include_nodes=TRUE, 
                  Nsimulations=1, drop_dims=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

Q

A numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, storing the transition rates between states. In particular, every row must sum up to zero.

root_probabilities

Probabilities of the different states at the root. Either a character vector with value "stationary" or "flat", or a numeric vector of length Nstates, where Nstates is the number of possible states of the trait. In the later case, root_probabilities must be a valid probability vector, i.e. with non-negative values summing up to 1. "stationary" sets the probabilities at the root to the stationary distribution of Q (see get_stationary_distribution), while "flat" means that each state is equally probable at the root.

include_tips

Include random states for the tips. If FALSE, no states will be returned for tips.

include_nodes

Include random states for the nodes. If FALSE, no states will be returned for nodes.

Nsimulations

Number of random independent simulations to perform. For each node and/or tip, there will be Nsimulations random states generated.

drop_dims

Logical, specifying whether the returned tip_states and node_states (see below) should be vectors, if Nsimulations==1. If drop_dims==FALSE, then tip_states and tip_nodes will always be 2D matrices.

Details

For this function, the trait's states must be represented by integers within 1,..,Nstates, where Nstates is the total number of possible states. If the states are originally in some other format (e.g. characters or factors), you should map them to a set of integers 1,..,Nstates. These integers should correspond to row & column indices in the transition matrix Q. You can easily map any set of discrete states to integers using the function map_to_state_space.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The time required per simulation decreases with the total number of requested simulations.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tip_states

Either NULL (if include_tips==FALSE), or a 2D integer matrix of size Nsimulations x Ntips with values in 1,..,Nstates, where Ntips is the number of tips in the tree and Nstates is the number of possible states of the trait. The [r,c]-th entry of this matrix will be the state of tip c generated by the r-th simulation. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsimulations==1, then tip_states will be a vector.

node_states

Either NULL (if include_nodes==FALSE), or a 2D integer matrix of size Nsimulations x Nnodes with values in 1,..,Nstates, where Nnodes is the number of nodes in the tree. The [r,c]-th entry of this matrix will be the state of node c generated by the r-th simulation. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsimulations==1, then node_states will be a vector.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

exponentiate_matrix, get_stationary_distribution, simulate_bm_model, simulate_ou_model, simulate_rou_model

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=1000)$tree

# simulate discrete trait evolution on the tree (5 states)
Nstates = 5
Q = get_random_mk_transition_matrix(Nstates, rate_model="ARD", max_rate=0.1)
tip_states = simulate_mk_model(tree, Q)$tip_states

# plot histogram of simulated tip states
barplot(table(tip_states)/length(tip_states), xlab="state")

## End(Not run)

Simulate an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for continuous trait evolution.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model for the evolution of a continuous (numeric) trait, simulate random outcomes of the model on all nodes and/or tips of the tree. The function traverses nodes from root to tips and randomly assigns a state to each node or tip based on its parent's previously assigned state and the specified model parameters. The generated states have joint distributions consistent with the OU model. Optionally, multiple independent simulations can be performed using the same model.

Usage

simulate_ou_model(tree, stationary_mean, stationary_std, decay_rate,
                  include_tips=TRUE, include_nodes=TRUE, 
                  Nsimulations=1, drop_dims=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

stationary_mean

Numeric. The mean (center) of the stationary distribution of the OU model.

stationary_std

Positive numeric. The standard deviation of the stationary distribution of the OU model.

decay_rate

Positive numeric. Exponential decay rate (stabilization rate) of the OU model (in units 1/edge_length_units).

include_tips

Include random states for the tips. If FALSE, no states will be returned for tips.

include_nodes

Include random states for the nodes. If FALSE, no states will be returned for nodes.

Nsimulations

Number of random independent simulations to perform. For each node and/or tip, there will be Nsimulations random states generated.

drop_dims

Logical, specifying whether the returned tip_states and node_states (see below) should be vectors, if Nsimulations==1. If drop_dims==FALSE, then tip_states and tip_nodes will always be 2D matrices.

Details

For each simulation, the state of the root is picked randomly from the stationary distribution of the OU model, i.e. from a normal distribution with mean = stationary_mean and standard deviation = stationary_std.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges*Nsimulations), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tip_states

Either NULL (if include_tips==FALSE), or a 2D numeric matrix of size Nsimulations x Ntips, where Ntips is the number of tips in the tree. The [r,c]-th entry of this matrix will be the state of tip c generated by the r-th simulation. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsimulations==1, then tip_states will be a vector.

node_states

Either NULL (if include_nodes==FALSE), or a 2D numeric matrix of size Nsimulations x Nnodes, where Nnodes is the number of nodes in the tree. The [r,c]-th entry of this matrix will be the state of node c generated by the r-th simulation. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsimulations==1, then node_states will be a vector.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

simulate_bm_model, simulate_mk_model, simulate_rou_model

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=10000)$tree

# simulate evolution of a continuous trait
tip_states = simulate_ou_model( tree, 
                                stationary_mean = 10, 
                                stationary_std = 1, 
                                decay_rate = 0.1)$tip_states

# plot histogram of simulated tip states
hist(tip_states, breaks=20, xlab="state", main="Trait probability distribution", prob=TRUE)

Simulate a reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for continuous trait evolution.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (ROU) model for the evolution of a continuous (numeric) trait, simulate random outcomes of the model on all nodes and/or tips of the tree. The ROU process is similar to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (see simulate_ou_model), with the difference that the ROU process cannot fall below a certain value (its "reflection point"), which (in this implementation) is also its deterministic equilibrium point (Hu et al. 2015). The function traverses nodes from root to tips and randomly assigns a state to each node or tip based on its parent's previously assigned state and the specified model parameters. The generated states have joint distributions consistent with the ROU model. Optionally, multiple independent simulations can be performed using the same model.

Usage

simulate_rou_model(tree, reflection_point, stationary_std, decay_rate,
                   include_tips=TRUE, include_nodes=TRUE, 
                   Nsimulations=1, drop_dims=TRUE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

reflection_point

Numeric. The reflection point of the ROU model. In castor, this also happens to be the deterministic equilibrium of the ROU process (i.e. if the decay rate were infinite). For example, if a trait can only be positive (but arbitrarily small), then reflection_point may be set to 0.

stationary_std

Positive numeric. The stationary standard deviation of the corresponding unreflected OU process.

decay_rate

Positive numeric. Exponential decay rate (stabilization rate) of the ROU process (in units 1/edge_length_units).

include_tips

Include random states for the tips. If FALSE, no states will be returned for tips.

include_nodes

Include random states for the nodes. If FALSE, no states will be returned for nodes.

Nsimulations

Number of random independent simulations to perform. For each node and/or tip, there will be Nsimulations random states generated.

drop_dims

Logical, specifying whether the returned tip_states and node_states (see below) should be vectors, if Nsimulations==1. If drop_dims==FALSE, then tip_states and tip_nodes will always be 2D matrices.

Details

For each simulation, the state of the root is picked randomly from the stationary distribution of the ROU model, i.e. from a one-sided normal distribution with mode = reflection_point and standard deviation = stationary_std.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child). The asymptotic time complexity of this function is O(Nedges*Nsimulations), where Nedges is the number of edges in the tree.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tip_states

Either NULL (if include_tips==FALSE), or a 2D numeric matrix of size Nsimulations x Ntips, where Ntips is the number of tips in the tree. The [r,c]-th entry of this matrix will be the state of tip c generated by the r-th simulation. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsimulations==1, then tip_states will be a vector.

node_states

Either NULL (if include_nodes==FALSE), or a 2D numeric matrix of size Nsimulations x Nnodes, where Nnodes is the number of nodes in the tree. The [r,c]-th entry of this matrix will be the state of node c generated by the r-th simulation. If drop_dims==TRUE and Nsimulations==1, then node_states will be a vector.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Y. Hu, C. Lee, M. H. Lee, J. Song (2015). Parameter estimation for reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with discrete observations. Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes. 18:279-291.

See Also

simulate_ou_model, simulate_bm_model, simulate_mk_model

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=10000)$tree

# simulate evolution of a continuous trait whose value is always >=1
tip_states = simulate_rou_model(tree, 
                                reflection_point=1,
                                stationary_std=2, 
                                decay_rate=0.1)$tip_states

# plot histogram of simulated tip states
hist(tip_states, breaks=20, xlab="state", main="Trait probability distribution", prob=TRUE)

Simulate Spherical Brownian Motion on a tree.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a Spherical Brownian Motion (SBM) model for the evolution of the geographical location of a lineage on a sphere, simulate random outcomes of the model on all nodes and/or tips of the tree. The function traverses nodes from root to tips and randomly assigns a geographical location to each node or tip based on its parent's previously assigned location and the specified model parameters. The generated states have joint distributions consistent with the SBM model (Perrin 1928; Brillinger 2012). This function generalizes the simple SBM model to support time-dependent diffusivities.

Usage

simulate_sbm(tree, 
             radius, 
             diffusivity,
             time_grid      = NULL,
             splines_degree = 1,
             root_latitude  = NULL, 
             root_longitude = NULL)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge. Edge lengths are assumed to represent time intervals or a similarly interpretable phylogenetic distance.

radius

Strictly positive numeric, specifying the radius of the sphere. For Earth, the mean radius is 6371 km.

diffusivity

Either a single numeric, or a numeric vector of length equal to that of time_grid. Diffusivity ("DD") of the SBM model (in units distance^2/time). If time_grid is NULL, then diffusivity should be a single number specifying the time-independent diffusivity. Otherwise diffusivity specifies the diffusivity at each time point listed in time_grid.

Under a planar approximation the squared geographical distance of a node from the root will have expectation 4LD4LD, where LL is the node's phylogenetic distance from the root. Note that distance is measured in the same units as the radius (e.g., km if the radius is given in km), and time is measured in the same units as the tree's edge lengths (e.g., Myr if edge lengths are given in Myr).

time_grid

Numeric vector of the same length as diffusivity and listing times since the root in ascending order, or NULL. This can be used to specify a time-variable diffusivity (see details below). If NULL, the diffusivity is assumed to be constant over time and equal to diffusivity (which should be a single numeric). Time is measured in the same units as edge lengths, with root having time 0.

splines_degree

Integer, either 0,1,2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the provided diffusivity between grid points in time_grid. For example, if splines_degree==1, then the provided diffusivity is interpreted as a piecewise-linear curve; if splines_degree==2 it is interpreted as a quadratic spline; if splines_degree==3 it is interpreted as a cubic spline. The splines_degree influences the analytical properties of the curve, e.g. splines_degree==1 guarantees a continuous curve, splines_degree==2 guarantees a continuous curve and continuous derivative, and so on.

root_latitude

The latitude of the tree's root, in decimal degrees, between -90 and 90. If NULL, the root latitude is chosen randomly according to the stationary probability distribution of the SBM.

root_longitude

The longitude of the tree's root, in decimal degrees, between -180 and 180. If NULL, the root longitude is chosen randomly according to the stationary probability distribution of the SBM.

Details

For short expected transition distances this function uses the approximation formula by Ghosh et al. (2012). For longer expected transition distances the function uses a truncated approximation of the series representation of SBM transition densities (Perrin 1928).

The pair time_grid and diffusivity can be used to define a time-dependent diffusivity, with time counted from the root to the tips (i.e. root has time 0) in the same units as edge lengths. For example, to define a diffusivity that varies linearly with time, you only need to specify the diffusivity at two time points (one at 0, and one at the time of the youngest tip), i.e. time_grid and diffusivity would each have length 2. Note that time_grid should cover the full time range of the tree; otherwise, diffusivity will be extrapolated as a constant when needed.

If tree$edge.length is missing, each edge in the tree is assumed to have length 1. The tree may include multifurcations as well as monofurcations.

Value

A list with the following elements:

success

Logical, specifying whether the simulation was successful. If FALSE, then an additional return variable error will contain a brief description of the error that occurred, and all other return variables may be undefined.

tip_latitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing simulated decimal latitudes for each tip in the tree.

tip_longitudes

Numeric vector of length Ntips, listing simulated decimal longitudes for each tip in the tree.

node_latitudes

Numeric vector of length Nnodes, listing simulated decimal latitudes for each internal node in the tree.

node_longitudes

Numeric vector of length Nnodes, listing simulated decimal longitudes for each internal node in the tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

F. Perrin (1928). Etude mathematique du mouvement Brownien de rotation. 45:1-51.

D. R. Brillinger (2012). A particle migrating randomly on a sphere. in Selected Works of David Brillinger. Springer.

A. Ghosh, J. Samuel, S. Sinha (2012). A Gaussian for diffusion on the sphere. Europhysics Letters. 98:30003.

S. Louca (2021). Phylogeographic estimation and simulation of global diffusive dispersal. Systematic Biology. 70:340-359.

See Also

simulate_ou_model, simulate_rou_model, simulate_bm_model, fit_sbm_const

Examples

## Not run: 
# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=100)$tree

# simulate SBM on the tree
simulation = simulate_sbm(tree, radius=6371, diffusivity=1e4,
                          root_latitude=0, root_longitude=0)

# plot latitudes and longitudes of the tips
plot(simulation$tip_latitudes,simulation$tip_longitudes)

## End(Not run)

Simulate a time-dependent Discrete-State Speciation and Extinction (tdSSE) model.

Description

Simulate a random phylogenetic tree in forward time based on a Poissonian speciation/extinction (birth/death) process, whereby birth and death rates are determined by a co-evolving discrete trait. New species are added (born) by splitting of a randomly chosen extant tip. The discrete trait, whose values determine birth/death rates, can evolve in two modes: (A) Anagenetically, i.e. according to a discrete-space continuous-time Markov process along each edge, with fixed or time-dependent transition rates between states, and/or (B) cladogenetically, i.e. according to fixed or time-dependent transition probabilities between states at each speciation event. This model class includes the Multiple State Speciation and Extinction (MuSSE) model described by FitzJohn et al. (2009), as well as the Cladogenetic SSE (ClaSSE) model described by Goldberg and Igis (2012). Optionally, the model can be turned into a Hidden State Speciation and Extinction model (Beaulieu and O'meara, 2016), by replacing the simulated tip/node states with "proxy" states, thus hiding the original states actually influencing speciation/extinction rates. This function is similar to simulate_dsse, the main difference being that state-specific speciation/extinction rates as well as state transition rates can be time-dependent.

Usage

simulate_tdsse(Nstates,
               NPstates             = NULL,
               proxy_map            = NULL,
               time_grid            = NULL,
               parameters           = list(),
               splines_degree       = 1,
               start_state          = NULL,
               max_tips             = NULL, 
               max_time             = NULL,
               max_events           = NULL,
               sampling_fractions   = NULL,
               reveal_fractions     = NULL,
               coalescent           = TRUE,
               as_generations       = FALSE,
               no_full_extinction   = TRUE,
               Nsplits              = 2, 
               tip_basename         = "", 
               node_basename        = NULL,
               include_birth_times  = FALSE,
               include_death_times  = FALSE,
               include_labels       = TRUE)

Arguments

Nstates

Integer, specifying the number of possible discrete states a tip can have, influencing speciation/extinction rates. For example, if Nstates==2 then this corresponds to the common Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) model (Maddison et al., 2007). In the case of a HiSSE model, Nstates refers to the total number of diversification rate categories, as described by Beaulieu and O'meara (2016).

NPstates

Integer, optionally specifying a number of "proxy-states" that are observed instead of the underlying speciation/extinction-modulating states. To simulate a HiSSE model, this should be smaller than Nstates. Each state corresponds to a different proxy-state, as defined using the variable proxy_map (see below). For BiSSE/MuSSE with no hidden states, NPstates can be set to either NULL or equal to Nstates, and proxy-states are equivalent to states.

proxy_map

Integer vector of size Nstates and with values in 1,..,NPstates, specifying the correspondence between states (i.e. diversification-rate categories) and (observed) proxy-states, in a HiSSE model. Specifically, proxy_map[s] indicates which proxy-state the state s is represented by. Each proxy-state can represent multiple states (i.e. proxies are ambiguous), but each state must be represented by exactly one proxy-state. For non-HiSSE models, set this to NULL. See below for more details.

time_grid

Numeric vector listing discrete times in ascending order, used to define the time-dependent rates of the model. The time grid should generally cover the maximum possible simulation time, otherwise it will be polynomially extrapolated (according to splines_degree).

parameters

A named list specifying the time-dependent model parameters, including optional anagenetic and/or cladogenetic transition rates between states, as well as the mandatory state-dependent birth/death rates (see details below).

splines_degree

Integer, either 0, 1, 2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of time-dependent model parameters (birth_rates, death_rates, transition_rates) between time-grid points. For example, splines_degree=1 means that rates are to be considered linear between adjacent grid points.

start_state

Integer within 1,..,Nstates, specifying the initial state, i.e. of the first lineage created. If left unspecified, this is chosen randomly and uniformly among all possible states.

max_tips

Maximum number of tips in the generated tree, prior to any subsampling. If coalescent=TRUE, this refers to the number of extant tips, prior to subsampling. Otherwise, it refers to the number of extinct + extant tips, prior to subsampling. If NULL or <=0, the number of tips is not limited, so you should use max_time and/or max_time_eq and/or max_events to stop the simulation.

max_time

Numeric, maximum duration of the simulation. If NULL or <=0, this constraint is ignored.

max_events

Integer, maximum number of speciation/extinction/transition events before halting the simulation. If NULL, this constraint is ignored.

sampling_fractions

A single number, or a numeric vector of size NPstates, listing tip sub-sampling fractions, depending on proxy-state. sampling_fractions[p] is the probability of including a tip in the final tree, if its proxy-state is p. If NULL, all tips (or all extant tips, if coalescent==TRUE) are included in the tree. If a single number, all tips are included with the same probability, i.e. regardless of their proxy-state.

reveal_fractions

Numeric vector of size NPstates, listing reveal fractions of tip proxy-states, depending on proxy state. reveal_fractions[p] is the probability of knowing a tip's proxy-state, if its proxy state is p. Can also be NULL, in which case all tip proxy states will be known.

coalescent

Logical, specifying whether only the coalescent tree (i.e. the tree spanning the extant tips) should be returned. If coalescent==FALSE and the death rate is non-zero, then the tree may include non-extant tips (i.e. tips whose distance from the root is less than the total time of evolution). In that case, the tree will not be ultrametric.

as_generations

Logical, specifying whether edge lengths should correspond to generations. If FALSE, then edge lengths correspond to time.

no_full_extinction

Logical, specifying whether to prevent complete extinction of the tree. Full extinction is prevented by temporarily disabling extinctions whenever the number of extant tips is 1. if no_full_extinction==FALSE and death rates are non-zero, the tree may go extinct during the simulation; if coalescent==TRUE, then the returned tree would be empty, hence the function will return unsuccessfully (i.e. success will be FALSE). By default no_full_extinction is TRUE, however in some special cases it may be desirable to allow full extinctions to ensure that the generated trees are statistically distributed exactly according to the underlying cladogenetic model.

Nsplits

Integer greater than 1. Number of child-tips to generate at each diversification event. If set to 2, the generated tree will be bifurcating. If >2, the tree will be multifurcating.

tip_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for tip labels (e.g. "tip."). If empty (""), then tip labels will be integers "1", "2" and so on.

node_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for node labels (e.g. "node."). If NULL, no node labels will be included in the tree.

include_birth_times

Logical. If TRUE, then the times of speciation events (in order of occurrence) will also be returned.

include_death_times

Logical. If TRUE, then the times of extinction events (in order of occurrence) will also be returned.

include_labels

Logical, specifying whether to include tip-labels and node-labels (if available) as names in the returned state vectors (e.g. tip_states and node_states). In any case, returned states are always listed in the same order as tips and nodes in the tree. Setting this to FALSE may increase computational efficiency for situations where labels are not required.

Details

The function simulate_tdsse can be used to simulate a diversification + discrete-trait evolutionary process, in which birth/death (speciation/extinction) rates at each tip are determined by a tip's current "state". Lineages can transition between states anagenetically along each edge (according to some Markov transition rates) and/or cladogenetically at each speciation event (according to some transition probabilities). The speciation and extinction rates, as well as the transition rates, may be specified as time-dependent variables, defined as piecewise polynomial functions (natural splines) on a temporal grid.

In the following, Ngrid refers to the length of the vector time_grid. The argument parameters should be a named list including one or more of the following elements:

  • birth_rates: Numeric 2D matrix of size Nstates x Ngrid, listing the per-capita birth rate (speciation rate) at each state and at each time-grid point. Can also be a single number (same birth rate for all states and at all times).

  • death_rates: Numeric 2D matrix of size Nstates x Ngrid, listing the per-capita death rate (extinction rate) at each state and at each time-grid point. Can also be a single number (same death rate for all states and at all times) or NULL (no deaths).

  • transition_matrix_A: Either a 3D numeric array of size Nstates x Nstates x Ngrid, or a 2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing anagenetic transition rates between states along an edge. If a 3D array, then transition_matrix_A[r,c,t] is the infinitesimal rate for transitioning from state r to state c at time time_grid[t]. If a 2D matrix, transition_matrix_A[r,c] is the time-independent infintesimal rate for transitioning from state r to state c. At each time point (i.e., a fixed t), non-diagonal entries in transition_matrix_A[,,t] must be non-negative, diagonal entries must be non-positive, and the sum of each row must be zero.

  • transition_matrix_C: Either a 3D numeric array of size Nstates x Nstates x Ngrid, or a 2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing cladogenetic transition probabilities between states during a speciation event, seperately for each child. If a 3D array, then transition_matrix_C[r,c,t] is the probability that a child emerging at time time_grid[t] will have state c, conditional upon the occurrence of a speciation event, given that the parent had state r, and independently of all other children. If a 2D matrix, then transition_matrix_C[r,c] is the (time-independent) probability that a child will have state c, conditional upon the occurrence of a speciation event, given that the parent had state r, and independently of all other children. Entries must be non-negative, and for any fixed t the sum of each row in transition_matrix[,,t] must be one.

If max_time==NULL and max_events==NULL, then the returned tree will always contain max_tips tips. If at any moment during the simulation the tree only includes a single extant tip, and if no_full_extinction=TRUE the death rate is temporarily set to zero to prevent the complete extinction of the tree. If max_tips==NULL, then the simulation is ran as long as specified by max_time and/or max_events. If neither max_time, max_tips nor max_events is NULL, then the simulation halts as soon as the time reaches max_time, or the number of tips (extant tips if coalescent is TRUE) reaches max_tips, or the number of speciation/extinction/transition events reaches max_events whichever occurs first. If max_tips!=NULL and Nsplits>2, then the last diversification even may generate fewer than Nsplits children, in order to keep the total number of tips within the specified limit. Note that this code generates trees in forward time, and halts as soon as one of the halting conditions is met; the halting condition chosen affects the precise distribution from which the generated trees are drawn (Stadler 2011).

For additional information on simulating HiSSE models see the related function simulate_dsse.

The parameter transition_matrix_C can be used to define ClaSSE models (Goldberg and Igic, 2012) or BiSSE-ness models (Magnuson-Ford and Otto, 2012), although care must be taken to properly define the transition probabilities. Here, cladogenetic transitions occur at probabilities that are defined conditionally upon a speciation event, whereas in other software they may be defined as probability rates.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the simulation was successful. If FALSE, an additional element error (of type character) is included containing an explanation of the error; in that case the value of any of the other elements is undetermined.

tree

A rooted bifurcating (if Nsplits==2) or multifurcating (if Nsplits>2) tree of class "phylo", generated according to the specified birth/death model.

If coalescent==TRUE or if all death rates are zero, and only if as_generations==FALSE, then the tree will be ultrametric. If as_generations==TRUE and coalescent==FALSE, all edges will have unit length.

root_time

Numeric, giving the time at which the tree's root was first split during the simulation. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, this may be later than the first speciation event during the simulation.

final_time

Numeric, giving the final time at the end of the simulation. If coalescent==TRUE, then this may be greater than the total time span of the tree (since the root of the coalescent tree need not correspond to the first speciation event).

Nbirths

Numeric vector of size Nstates, listing the total number of birth events (speciations) that occurred at each state. The sum of all entries in Nbirths may be lower than the total number of tips in the tree if death rates were non-zero and coalescent==TRUE, or if Nsplits>2.

Ndeaths

Numeric vector of size Nstates, listing the total number of death events (extinctions) that occurred at each state.

Ntransitions_A

2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing the total number of anagenetic transition events that occurred between each pair of states. For example, Ntransitions_A[1,2] is the number of anagenetic transitions (i.e., within a species) that occured from state 1 to state 2.

Ntransitions_C

2D numeric matrix of size Nstates x Nstates, listing the total number of cladogenetic transition events that occurred between each pair of states. For example, Ntransitions_C[1,2] is the number of cladogenetic transitions (i.e., from a parent to a child) that occured from state 1 to state 2 during some speciation event. Note that each speciation event will have caused Nsplits transitions, and that the emergence of a child with the same state as the parent is counted as a transition between the same state (diagonal entries in Ntransitions_C).

tip_states

Integer vector of size Ntips and with values in 1,..,Nstates, listing the state of each tip in the tree.

node_states

Integer vector of size Nnodes and with values in 1,..,Nstates, listing the state of each node in the tree.

tip_proxy_states

Integer vector of size Ntips and with values in 1,..,NPstates, listing the proxy state of each tip in the tree. Only included in the case of HiSSE models.

node_proxy_states

Integer vector of size Nnodes and with values in 1,..,NPstates, listing the proxy state of each node in the tree. Only included in the case of HiSSE models.

start_state

Integer, specifying the state of the first lineage (either provided during the function call, or generated randomly).

birth_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of speciation events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then speciation_times may be greater than the phylogenetic distance to the coalescent root.

death_times

Numeric vector, listing the times of extinction events during tree growth, in order of occurrence. Note that if coalescent==TRUE, then speciation_times may be greater than the phylogenetic distance to the coalescent root.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

W. P. Maddison, P. E. Midford, S. P. Otto (2007). Estimating a binary character's effect on speciation and extinction. Systematic Biology. 56:701-710.

R. G. FitzJohn, W. P. Maddison, S. P. Otto (2009). Estimating trait-dependent speciation and extinction rates from incompletely resolved phylogenies. Systematic Biology. 58:595-611

R. G. FitzJohn (2012). Diversitree: comparative phylogenetic analyses of diversification in R. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 3:1084-1092

E. E. Goldberg, B. Igic (2012). Tempo and mode in plant breeding system evolution. Evolution. 66:3701-3709.

K. Magnuson-Ford, S. P. Otto (2012). Linking the investigations of character evolution and species diversification. The American Naturalist. 180:225-245.

J. M. Beaulieu and B. C. O'Meara (2016). Detecting hidden diversification shifts in models of trait-dependent speciation and extinction. Systematic Biology. 65:583-601.

T. Stadler (2011). Simulating trees with a fixed number of extant species. Systematic Biology. 60:676-684.

See Also

simulate_dsse, simulate_musse, fit_musse

Examples

## Not run: 
# prepare params for time-dependent BiSSE model
# include time-dependent speciation & extinction rates
# as well as time-dependent anagenetic transition rates
Nstates          = 2
reveal_fractions = c(1,0.5)
rarefaction      = 0.5 # species sampling fraction

time2lambda1 = function(times) rep(1,times=length(times))
time2lambda2 = function(times) rep(2,times=length(times))
time2mu1     = function(times) 0.5 + 2.5*exp(-((times-8)**2)/2)
time2mu2     = function(times) 1 + 2*exp(-((times-12)**2)/2)
time_grid    = seq(from=0, to=100, length.out=1000)

time2Q12    = function(times) 1*exp(0.1*times)
time2Q21    = function(times) 2*exp(-0.1*times)
QA          = array(0, dim=c(Nstates,Nstates,length(time_grid)))
QA[1,2,]    = time2Q12(time_grid)
QA[2,1,]    = time2Q21(time_grid)
QA[1,1,]    = -QA[1,2,]
QA[2,2,]    = -QA[2,1,]

parameters = list()
parameters$birth_rates = rbind(time2lambda1(time_grid), time2lambda2(time_grid))
parameters$death_rates = rbind(time2mu1(time_grid), time2mu2(time_grid))
parameters$transition_matrix_A = QA

# simulate time-dependent BiSSE model
cat(sprintf("Simulating tMuSSE model..\n"))
sim = castor::simulate_tdsse(Nstates            = Nstates,
                            time_grid           = time_grid,
                            parameters          = parameters, 
                            splines_degree      = 1,
                            max_tips            = 10000/rarefaction,
                            sampling_fractions  = rarefaction,
                            reveal_fractions    = reveal_fractions,
                            coalescent          = TRUE,
                            no_full_extinction  = TRUE)
if(!sim$success){
    cat(sprintf("ERROR: %s\n",sim$error))
}else{
    # print some summary info about the generated tree
    tree        = sim$tree
    Ntips       = length(tree$tip.label)
    root_age    = get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
    root_time   = sim$final_time - root_age
    tip_states  = sim$tip_states
    Nknown_tips = sum(!is.na(tip_states))
    cat(sprintf("Note: Simulated tree has root_age = %g\n",root_age))
    cat(sprintf("Note: %d tips have known state\n", Nknown_tips));
}

## End(Not run)

Get the polynomial coefficients of a spline.

Description

Given a natural spline function Y:RRY:\R\to\R, defined as a series of Y values on a discrete X grid, obtain its corresponding piecewise polynomial coefficients. Supported splines degrees are 0 (Y is piecewise constant), 1 (piecewise linear), 2 (piecewise quadratic) and 3 (piecewise cubic).

Usage

spline_coefficients(Xgrid, 
                    Ygrid,
                    splines_degree)

Arguments

Xgrid

Numeric vector, listing x-values in ascending order.

Ygrid

Numeric vector of the same length as Xgrid, listing the values of Y on Xgrid.

splines_degree

Integer, either 0, 1, 2 or 3, specifying the polynomial degree of the spline curve Y between grid points. For example, 0 means Y is piecewise constant, 1 means Y is piecewise linear and so on.

Details

Spline functions are returned by some of castor's fitting routines, so spline_coefficients is meant to aid with the further analysis of such functions. A spline function of degree D1D\geq1 has continuous derivatives up to degree D1D-1.

Value

A numeric matrix of size NR x NC, where NR (number of rows) is equal to the length of Xgrid and NC (number of columns) is equal to splines_degree+1. The r-th row lists the polynomial coefficients (order 0, 1 etc) of the spline within the interval [Xgrid[r],Xgrid[r+1]]. For exampe, for a spline of order 2, the value at X=0.5*(Xgrid[1]+Xgrid[2]) will be equal to C[1,1]+C[1,2]*X+C[1,3]*X*X, where C is the matrix of coefficients.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

evaluate_spline

Examples

# The following code defines a quadratic spline on 20 grid points
# The curve's polynomial coefficients are then determined
# and used to evaluate the spline on a fine grid for plotting.
Xgrid = seq(0,10,length.out=20)
Ygrid = sin(Xgrid)
splines_degree = 2

Ycoeff = castor::spline_coefficients(Xgrid, Ygrid, splines_degree)

plot(Xgrid, Ygrid, type='p')

for(g in seq_len(length(Xgrid)-1)){
  Xtarget = seq(Xgrid[g], Xgrid[g+1], length.out=100)
  Ytarget = rep(Ycoeff[g,1], length(Xtarget))
  for(p in seq_len(splines_degree)){
    Ytarget = Ytarget + (Xtarget^p) * Ycoeff[g,p+1];
  }
  lines(Xtarget, Ytarget, type='l', col='red')
}

Split a tree into subtrees at a specific height.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a specific distance from the root (“height”), split the tree into subtrees at the specific height. This corresponds to drawing the tree in rectangular layout and trimming everything below the specified phylogenetic distance from the root: What is obtained is a set of separated subtrees. The tips of the original tree are spread across those subtrees.

Usage

split_tree_at_height(tree, height = 0, by_edge_count = FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

height

Numeric, specifying the phylogenetic distance from the root at which to split the tree. If <=0, the original tree is returned as the sole subtree.

by_edge_count

Logical. Instead of considering edge lengths, consider edge counts as phylogenetic distance. This is the same as if all edges had length equal to 1.

Details

This function can be used to generate multiple smaller trees from one large tree, with each subtree having a time span equal to or lower than a certain threshold. The input tree may include multifurcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as monofurcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Note that while edges are cut exactly at the specified distance from the root, the cut point does not become the root node of the obtained subtree; rather, the first node encountered after the cut will become the subtree's root. The length of the remaining edge segment leading into this node will be used as root.edge in the returned subtree.

Value

A list with the following elements:

Nsubtrees

Integer, the number of subtrees obtained.

subtrees

A list of length Nsubtrees, each element of which is a named list containing the following elements:

  • tree: A rooted tree of class "phylo", representing a subtree obtained from the original tree.

  • new2old_clade: An integer vector of length NStips+NSnodes (where NStips is the number of tips and NSnodes the number of nodes of the subtree), mapping subtree tip and node indices (i.e., 1,..,NStips+NSnodes) to tip and node indices in the original tree.

  • new2old_edge: Integer vector of length NSedges (=number of edges in the subtree), mapping subtree edge indices (i.e., 1,..,NSedges) to edge indices in the original tree.

clade2subtree

Integer vector of length Ntips+Nnodes and containing values from 1 to Nsubtrees, mapping tip and node indices of the original tree to their assigned subtree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

trim_tree_at_height

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                            max_tips=100)$tree

# split tree halfway towards the root
root_age = get_tree_span(tree)$max_distance
splitting = split_tree_at_height(tree, height=0.5*root_age)

# print number of subtrees obtained
cat(sprintf("Obtained %d subtrees\n",splitting$Nsubtrees))

Calculate the distance between two trees.

Description

Given two rooted phylogenetic trees with identical tips, calculate their difference using a distance metric or pseudometric.

Usage

tree_distance(  treeA, 
                treeB,
                tipsA2B       = NULL,
                metric        = "RFrooted",
                normalized    = FALSE,
                NLeigenvalues = 10)

Arguments

treeA

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

treeB

A rooted tree of class "phylo". Depending on the metric used, this tree may need to have the same number of tips as treeA (see details below).

tipsA2B

Optional integer vector of size Ntips, mapping treeA tip indices to treeB tip indices (i.e. tipsA2B[a] is the tip index in treeB corresponding to tip index a in treeA). The mapping must be one-to-one. If left unspecified, it is determined by matching tip labels between the two trees (this assumes that the same tip labels are used in both trees). Only relevant if the metric requires tip matching (i.e., considers labeled trees).

metric

Character, specifying the distance measure to be used. Currently the Robinson-Foulds metric for rooted trees ("RFrooted"), the mean-path-difference ("MeanPathLengthDifference"), "WassersteinNodeAges" and "WassersteinLaplacianSpectrum" are implemented. Note that these distances are not necessarily metrics in the strict mathematical sense; in particular, non-identical trees can sometimes have a zero distance.

"RFrooted" counts the number of clusters (sets of tips descending from a node) in either of the trees but not shared by both trees (Robinson and Foulds, 1981; Day, 1985); this metric does not take into account branch lengths and depends on the position of the root.

"MeanPathLengthDifference" is the square root of the mean squared difference of patristic distances (shortest path lengths) between tip pairs, as described by Steel and Penny (1993); this metric takes into account path lengths and does not depend on the position of the root.

"WassersteinNodeAges" calculates the first Wasserstein distance (Ramdas et al. 2017) between the distributions of node ages in the two trees. It depends on the branch lengths and the rooting, but does not depend on tip labeling nor topology (as long as node ages are the same). Hence, this is only a 'pseudometric' in the space of unlabeled trees - any two trees with identical node ages will have distance 0.

"WassersteinLaplacianSpectrum" calculates the first Wasserstein distance between the spectra (sets of eigenvalues) of the modified graph Laplacians (Lewitus and Morlon, 2016). This distance depends on tree topology and branch lengths, but not on tip labeling nor on the rooting. Note that Lewitus and Morlon measured the distance between the Laplacian spectra in a different way than here. Also note that if NLeigenvalues>0, only a subset of the eigenvalues may be considered.

normalized

Logical, specifying whether the calculated distance should be normalized to be between 0 and 1. For the Robinson-Foulds distance, the distance will be normalized by dividing it by the total number of nodes in the two trees. For MeanPathLengthDifference, normalization is done by dividing each path-length difference by the maximum of the two path-lengths considered. For WassersteinNodeAges, normalization is achieved by scaling all node ages relative to the oldest node age in any of the two trees (hence times are converted to relative times). Note that normalized distances may no longer satisfy the triangle inequality required for metrics, i.e. the resulting distance function may not be a metric in the mathematical sense.

NLeigenvalues

Integer, number of top eigenvalues (i.e., with largest magnitude) to consider from the Graph-Laplacian's spectrum (e.g., for the metric "WassersteinLaplacianSpectrum"). This option is mostly provided for computational efficiency reasons, because it is cheaper to compute a small subset of eigenvalues rather than the entire spectrum. If <=0, all eigenvalues are considered, which can substantially increase computation time and memory for large trees.

Details

For some metrics ("RFrooted", "MeanPathLengthDifference"), the trees must have the same number of tips and their tips must be matched one-to-one. If the trees differ in theis tips, they must be pruned down to their common set of tips. If tips have different labels in the two trees, but are nevertheless equivalent, the mapping between the two trees must be provided using tipsA2B.

The trees may include multi-furcations as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Note that under some Robinson-Foulds variants the trees can be unrooted; in this present implementation trees must be rooted and the placement of the root influences the distance, following the definition by Day (1985).

Value

A single non-negative number, representing the distance between the two trees.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Robinson, D. R., Foulds, L. R. (1981). Comparison of phylogenetic trees. Mathematical Biosciences. 53: 131-147.

Day, W. H. E. (1985). Optimal algorithms for comparing trees with labeled leaves. Journal of Classification. 2:7-28.

Steel, M. A., Penny D. (1993). Distributions of tree comparison metrics - Some new results. Systematic Biology. 42:126-141.

Ramdas, A. et al. (2017). On Wasserstein two-sample testing and related families of nonparametric tests. Entropy. 19(2):47.

Lewitus, E. and Morlon, H. (2016). Characterizing and comparing phylogenies from their laplacian spectrum. Systematic Biology. 65:495-507.

See Also

congruent_divergence_times

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 1000
treeA = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                            max_tips=Ntips)$tree
                            
# create a second tree with slightly different topology
treeB = treeA
shuffled_tips = sample.int(Ntips, size=Ntips/10, replace=FALSE)
treeB$tip.label[shuffled_tips] = treeB$tip.label[sample(shuffled_tips)]

# calculate Robinson-Foulds distance between trees
distance = tree_distance(treeA, treeB, metric="RFrooted")

Generate a random timetree with specific branching ages.

Description

Generate a random timetree based on specific branching ages (time before present), by randomly connecting tips and nodes. The tree's root will have the greatest age provided. The tree thus corresponds to a homogenous birth-death model, i.e. where at any given time point all lineages were equally likely to split or go extinct.

Usage

tree_from_branching_ages(   branching_ages,
                            tip_basename       = "",
                            node_basename      = NULL,
                            edge_basename      = NULL)

Arguments

branching_ages

Numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing branching ages (time before present) in ascending order. The last entry will be the root age.

tip_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for tip labels (e.g. "tip."). If empty (""), then tip labels will be integers "1", "2" and so on.

node_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for node labels (e.g. "node."). If NULL, no node labels will be included in the tree.

edge_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for edge labels (e.g. "edge."). Edge labels (if included) are stored in the character vector edge.label. If NULL, no edge labels will be included in the tree.

Details

Tips in the generated tree are guaranteed to be connected in random order, i.e. this function can also be used to connect a random set of labeled tips into a tree. Nodes will be indexed in chronological order (i.e. in order of decreasing age). In particular, node 0 will be the root.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the tree was successfully generated. If FALSE, the only other value returned is error.

tree

A rooted, ultrametric bifurcating tree of class "phylo", with the requested branching ages.

error

Character, containing an explanation of the error that occurred. Only included if success==FALSE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

tree_from_sampling_branching_ages

Examples

Nnodes              = 100
branching_intervals = rexp(n=Nnodes, rate=1)
branching_ages      = cumsum(branching_intervals)
tree                = castor::tree_from_branching_ages(branching_ages)$tree

Generate a random timetree with specific tip/sampling and node/branching ages.

Description

Generate a random bifurcating timetree based on specific sampling (tip) ages and branching (node) ages, by randomly connecting tips and nodes. Age refers to time before present, i.e., measured in reverse chronological direction. The tree's root will have the greatest age provided. The tree thus corresponds to a homogenous birth-death-sampling model, i.e. where at any given time point all lineages were equally likely to split, be sampled or go extinct.

Usage

tree_from_sampling_branching_ages(sampling_ages,
                                  branching_ages,
                                  tip_basename  = "",
                                  node_basename = NULL,
                                  edge_basename = NULL)

Arguments

sampling_ages

Numeric vector of size Ntips, listing sampling ages (time before present) in ascending order.

branching_ages

Numeric vector of size Nnodes, listing branching ages (time before present) in ascending order. The last entry will be the root age. Note that Nnodes must be equal to Ntips-1.

tip_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for tip labels (e.g. "tip."). If empty (""), then tip labels will be integers "1", "2" and so on.

node_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for node labels (e.g. "node."). If NULL, no node labels will be included in the tree.

edge_basename

Character. Prefix to be used for edge labels (e.g. "edge."). Edge labels (if included) are stored in the character vector edge.label. If NULL, no edge labels will be included in the tree.

Details

Tips and nodes will be indexed in chronological order (i.e. in order of decreasing age). In particular, node 0 will be the root. Note that not all choices of sampling_ages and branching_ages are permissible. Specifically, at any given age T, the number of sampling events with age equal or smaller than T must be greater than the number of branching events with age equal or smaller than T. If this requirement is not satisfied, the function will return with an error.

Value

A named list with the following elements:

success

Logical, indicating whether the tree was successfully generated. If FALSE, the only other value returned is error.

tree

A rooted, ultrametric bifurcating tree of class "phylo", with the requested tip and node ages.

error

Character, containing an explanation of the error that occurred. Only included if success==FALSE.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

tree_from_branching_ages

Examples

sampling_ages   = c(0, 0.1, 0.15, 0.25, 0.9, 1.9, 3)
branching_ages  = c(0.3, 0.35, 0.4, 1.1, 2.5, 3.5)
tree = tree_from_sampling_branching_ages(sampling_ages, branching_ages)$tree

Construct a rooted tree from lists of taxa.

Description

Given a collection of taxon lists, construct a rooted taxonomic tree. Each taxon list is defined by a parent name and the names of its children (i.e., immediate descendants).

Usage

tree_from_taxa(taxa)

Arguments

taxa

Named list, whose elements are character vectors, each representing a parent and its children. The element names of taxa are parents. Each element taxa[n] is a character vector listing an arbitrary number of taxon names (the children), which immediately descend from taxon names(taxa)[n].

Details

The following rules apply:

  • Each taxon must appear at most once as a parent and at most once as a child.

  • Any taxa found as parents but not as children, will be assumed to descend directly from the root. If only one such taxon was found, it will become the root itself.

  • Any taxa found as a child but not as a parent, will become tips.

  • Any parents without children will be considered tips.

  • Empty parent names (i.e., "") are not allowed.

  • Taxa can be specified in any arbitrary order, including breadth-first, depth-first etc.

Since the returned tree is a taxonomy, it will contain no edge lengths.

Value

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

consensus_taxonomies, place_tips_taxonomically

Examples

# define a list of taxa, with taxon "A" being the root
# Taxa G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N and O will be tips
taxa = list(A = c("B","C","D"), 
            B = c("E","I"), 
            C = c("J","F"), 
            D = c("M", "N", "O"), 
            E = c("G", "H"),
            F = c("K", "L"))
tree = castor::tree_from_taxa(taxa)

Calculate various imbalance statistics for a tree.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree, calculate various "imbalance" statistics of the tree, such as Colless' Index or Sackin's Index.

Usage

tree_imbalance(tree, type)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo".

type

Character, specifying the statistic to be calculated. Must be one of "Colless" (Shao 1990), "Colless_normalized" (Colless normalized by the maximum possible value in the case of a bifurcating tree), "Sackin" (Sackin 1972) or "Blum" (Blum and Francois 2006, Eq. 5).

Details

The tree may include multifurcations and monofurcations. Note that the Colless Index is traditionally only defined for bifurcating trees. For non-bifurcating trees this function calculates a generalization of the index, by summing over all children pairs at each node.

The Blum statistic is the sum of natural logarithms of the sizes (number of descending tips) of non-monofurcating nodes.

Value

Numeric, the requested imbalance statistic of the tree.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

M. J. Sackin (1972). "Good" and "Bad" Phenograms. Systematic Biology. 21:225-226.

K.T. Shao, R. R. Sokal (1990). Tree Balance. Systematic Biology. 39:266-276.

M. G. B. Blum and O. Francois (2006). Which random processes describe the Tree of Life? A large-scale study of phylogenetic tree imbalance. Systematic Biology. 55:685-691.

Examples

# generate a random tree
Ntips = 100
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),Ntips)$tree

# calculate Colless statistic
colless_index = tree_imbalance(tree, type="Colless")

Trim a rooted tree down to a specific height.

Description

Given a rooted phylogenetic tree and a maximum allowed distance from the root (“height”), remove tips and nodes and shorten the remaining terminal edges so that the tree's height does not exceed the specified threshold. This corresponds to drawing the tree in rectangular layout and trimming everything beyond a specific phylogenetic distance from the root. Tips or nodes at the end of trimmed edges are kept, and the affected edges are shortened.

Usage

trim_tree_at_height(tree, height = Inf, by_edge_count = FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A rooted tree of class "phylo". The root is assumed to be the unique node with no incoming edge.

height

Numeric, specifying the phylogenetic distance from the root at which to trim.

by_edge_count

Logical. Instead of considering edge lengths, consider edge counts as phylogenetic distance. This is the same as if all edges had length equal to 1.

Details

The input tree may include multi-furcations (i.e. nodes with more than 2 children) as well as mono-furcations (i.e. nodes with only one child).

Tip labels and uncollapsed node labels of the collapsed tree are inheritted from the original tree. Labels of tips that used to be nodes (i.e. of which all descendants have been removed) will be the node labels from the original tree. If the input tree has no node names, it is advised to first add node names to avoid NA in the resulting tip names.

Value

A list with the following elements:

tree

A new rooted tree of class "phylo", representing the trimmed tree.

Nedges_trimmed

Integer. Number of edges trimmed (shortened).

Nedges_removed

Integer. Number of edges removed.

new2old_clade

Integer vector of length equal to the number of tips+nodes in the trimmed tree, with values in 1,..,Ntips+Nnodes, mapping tip/node indices of the trimmed tree to tip/node indices in the original tree. In particular,

c(tree$tip.label,tree$node.label)[new2old_clade]

will be equal to:

c(trimmed_tree$tip.label,trimmed_tree$node.label).

new2old_edge

Integer vector of length equal to the number of edges in the trimmed tree, with values in 1,..,Nedges, mapping edge indices of the trimmed tree to edge indices in the original tree. In particular, tree$edge.length[new2old_edge] will be equal to trimmed_tree$edge.length (if edge lengths are available).

new_edges_trimmed

Integer vector, listing edge indices in the trimmed tree that we originally longer edges and have been trimmed. In other words, these are the edges that "crossed" the trimming height.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

See Also

split_tree_at_height

Examples

# generate a random tree, include node names
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),
                            max_time=1000,
                            node_basename="node.")$tree

# print number of tips
cat(sprintf("Simulated tree has %d tips\n",length(tree$tip.label)))

# trim tree at height 500
trimmed = trim_tree_at_height(tree, height=500)$tree

# print number of tips in trimmed tree
cat(sprintf("Trimmed tree has %d tips\n",length(trimmed$tip.label)))

Write a tree in Newick (parenthetic) format.

Description

Write a phylogenetic tree to a file or a string, in Newick (parenthetic) format. If the tree is unrooted, it is first rooted internally at the first node.

Usage

write_tree (tree, 
            file                 = "",
            append               = FALSE,
            digits               = 10,
            quoting              = 0,
            include_edge_labels  = FALSE,
            include_edge_numbers = FALSE)

Arguments

tree

A tree of class "phylo".

file

An optional path to a file, to which the tree should be written. The file may be overwritten without warning. If left empty (default), then a string is returned representing the tree.

append

Logical, specifying whether the tree should be appended at the end of the file, rather than replacing the entire file (if it exists).

digits

Integer, number of significant digits for writing edge lengths.

quoting

Integer, specifying whether and how to quote tip/node/edge names, as follows: 0:no quoting at all, 1:always use single quotes, 2:always use double quotes, -1:only quote when needed and prefer single quotes if possible, -2:only quote when needed and prefer double quotes if possible.

include_edge_labels

Logical, specifying whether to include edge labels (if available) in the output tree, inside square brackets. Note that this is an extension (Matsen et al. 2012) to the standard Newick format, as, and edge labels in square brackets may not be supported by all Newick readers.

include_edge_numbers

Logical, specifying whether to include edge numbers (if available) in the output tree, inside curly braces. Note that this is an extension (Matsen et al. 2012) to the standard Newick format, and edge numbers in curly braces may not be supported by all Newick readers.

Details

If your tip and/or node and/or edge labels contain special characters (round brackets, commas, colons or quotes) then you should set quoting to non-zero, as appropriate.

If the tree contains edge labels (as a character vector named edge.label) and include_edge_labels==TRUE, then edge labels are written in square brackets (Matsen et al. 2012). If tree contains edge numbers (as an integer vector named edge.number) and include_edge_numbers==TRUE, then edge numbers are written in curly braces (Matsen et al. 2012).

This function is comparable to (but typically much faster than) the ape function write.tree.

Value

If file=="", then a string is returned containing the Newick representation of the tree. Otherwise, the tree is directly written to the file and no value is returned.

Author(s)

Stilianos Louca

References

Frederick A. Matsen et al. (2012). A format for phylogenetic placements. PLOS One. 7:e31009

See Also

read_tree

Examples

# generate a random tree
tree = generate_random_tree(list(birth_rate_intercept=1),max_tips=100)$tree

# obtain a string representation of the tree in Newick format
Newick_string = write_tree(tree)