{
  "_id": "6ae285cf327abcdf86865832",
  "Package": "ErrorTracer",
  "Type": "Package",
  "Title": "Bayesian Error Propagation and Forecast Uncertainty\nDecomposition",
  "Version": "1.4.1",
  "Date": "2026-10-28",
  "Authors@R": "c(\nperson(given = \"Luis Javier\", family = \"Madrigal-Roca\", role = c(\"aut\", \"cre\"), email = \"madrigalrocalj@yahoo.com\"),\nperson(given = \"John\", family = \"Kelly\", role = \"aut\", email = \"jkk@ku.edu\")\n)",
  "Description": "Provides a full pipeline from regularized or standard\nregression models (elastic net, linear models, generalized\nlinear models, random forests) to informed Bayesian priors,\nstructured forecast uncertainty decomposition (parameter /\nenvironmental / residual, plus a temporal component when the\nmodel carries an autocorrelation term), and forecast shelf life\nanalysis (the quantification of when a forecast becomes\nuninformative). Designed for ecological and genomic forecasting\nwith climate or environmental covariates. Methods build on\nBürkner (2017) <doi:10.18637/jss.v080.i01> for Bayesian\nregression via 'Stan', Friedman, Hastie, and Tibshirani (2010)\n<doi:10.18637/jss.v033.i01> for elastic net regularization,\nWright and Ziegler (2017) <doi:10.18637/jss.v077.i01> for\nrandom forests, and Vehtari, Gelman, and Gabry (2017)\n<doi:10.1007/s11222-016-9696-4> for leave-one-out\ncross-validation.",
  "License": "MIT + file LICENSE",
  "Encoding": "UTF-8",
  "LazyData": "true",
  "Config/testthat/edition": "3",
  "VignetteBuilder": "knitr",
  "Config/roxygen2/version": "8.1.0",
  "NeedsCompilation": "no",
  "Packaged": {
    "Date": "2026-10-28 23:28:18 UTC",
    "User": "root"
  },
  "Author": "Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca [aut, cre], John Kelly [aut]",
  "Maintainer": "Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca <madrigalrocalj@yahoo.com>",
  "Repository": "https://cran.r-universe.dev",
  "Date/Publication": "2026-10-28 21:44:31 UTC",
  "RemoteUrl": "https://github.com/cran/ErrorTracer",
  "RemoteRef": "HEAD",
  "RemoteSha": "67513052e548612fd644f075f00d7455e88fb745",
  "_user": "cran",
  "_type": "src",
  "_file": "ErrorTracer_1.4.1.tar.gz",
  "_fileid": "https://r2.ropensci.org/1664b89287ce41bf71f4f09ae5bc5c480f701c40fd06465d79d840754bcc18c1",
  "_filesize": 579168,
  "_sha256": "1664b89287ce41bf71f4f09ae5bc5c480f701c40fd06465d79d840754bcc18c1",
  "_expires": "2027-02-05T23:31:25.000Z",
  "_created": "2026-10-28T23:28:18.000Z",
  "_published": "2026-10-28T23:31:27.497Z",
  "_upstream": "https://github.com/cran/ErrorTracer",
  "_status": "success",
  "_maintainer": {
    "name": "Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca",
    "email": "madrigalrocalj@yahoo.com",
    "login": "luismadrigal98",
    "description": "I am a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Kansas. My research focus is centered around the ecology and evolutionary biology of the yellow monkey flower.",
    "uuid": 108612426
  },
  "_jobs": [
    {
      "job": 123164694745,
      "time": 146,
      "config": "linux-devel-x86_64",
      "r": "4.7.0",
      "check": "OK",
      "artifact": "12859414098"
    },
    {
      "job": 123164694801,
      "time": 152,
      "config": "linux-release-x86_64",
      "r": "4.6.1",
      "check": "OK",
      "artifact": "12859962156"
    },
    {
      "job": 123163140471,
      "time": 236,
      "config": "source",
      "r": "4.6.1",
      "check": "OK",
      "artifact": "12859743591"
    },
    {
      "job": 123164694767,
      "time": 142,
      "config": "wasm-release",
      "r": "4.6.0",
      "check": "OK",
      "artifact": "12860750418"
    },
    {
      "job": 123164694687,
      "time": 132,
      "config": "windows-devel-x86_64",
      "r": "4.7.0",
      "check": "OK",
      "artifact": "12860595843"
    },
    {
      "job": 123164694714,
      "time": 88,
      "config": "windows-release-x86_64",
      "r": "4.6.1",
      "check": "OK",
      "artifact": "12859882592"
    }
  ],
  "_buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/cran/actions/runs/40787133765",
  "_commit": {
    "id": "67513052e548612fd644f075f00d7455e88fb745",
    "author": "Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca <madrigalrocalj@yahoo.com>",
    "committer": "cran-robot <csardi.gabor+cran@gmail.com>",
    "message": "version 1.4.1\n",
    "time": 1793223871
  },
  "_distro": "resolute",
  "_host": "GitHub-Actions",
  "_registered": true,
  "_dependencies": [
    {
      "package": "R",
      "version": ">= 4.1.0",
      "role": "Depends"
    },
    {
      "package": "brms",
      "version": ">= 2.20.0",
      "role": "Imports"
    },
    {
      "package": "ggplot2",
      "version": ">= 3.4.0",
      "role": "Imports"
    },
    {
      "package": "rlang",
      "version": ">= 1.1.0",
      "role": "Imports"
    },
    {
      "package": "stats",
      "role": "Imports"
    },
    {
      "package": "utils",
      "role": "Imports"
    },
    {
      "package": "survival",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "loo",
      "version": ">= 2.6.0",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "bayesplot",
      "version": ">= 1.10.0",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "scales",
      "version": ">= 1.3.0",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "tidyr",
      "version": ">= 1.3.0",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "glmnet",
      "version": ">= 4.1.0",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "ranger",
      "version": ">= 0.15.0",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "dplyr",
      "version": ">= 1.1.0",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "testthat",
      "version": ">= 3.0.0",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "knitr",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "rmarkdown",
      "role": "Suggests"
    },
    {
      "package": "covr",
      "role": "Suggests"
    }
  ],
  "_owner": "cran",
  "_selfowned": false,
  "_usedby": 0,
  "_updates": [
    {
      "week": "2026-19",
      "n": 1
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-22",
      "n": 1
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-29",
      "n": 1
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-31",
      "n": 1
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-34",
      "n": 1
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-43",
      "n": 1
    },
    {
      "week": "2026-44",
      "n": 1
    }
  ],
  "_tags": [
    {
      "name": "1.0.2",
      "date": "2026-05-04"
    },
    {
      "name": "1.1.0",
      "date": "2026-05-25"
    },
    {
      "name": "1.2.1",
      "date": "2026-07-19"
    },
    {
      "name": "1.3.0",
      "date": "2026-07-30"
    },
    {
      "name": "1.3.1",
      "date": "2026-08-19"
    },
    {
      "name": "1.4.0",
      "date": "2026-10-24"
    },
    {
      "name": "1.4.1",
      "date": "2026-10-28"
    }
  ],
  "_stars": 1,
  "_contributors": [
    {
      "user": "luismadrigal98",
      "count": 7,
      "uuid": 108612426
    }
  ],
  "_userbio": {
    "uuid": 6899542,
    "type": "organization",
    "name": "cran",
    "followers": 634,
    "description": "Unofficial read-only mirror of all CRAN R packages"
  },
  "_downloads": {
    "count": 328,
    "source": "https://cranlogs.r-pkg.org/downloads/total/last-month/ErrorTracer"
  },
  "_searchresults": 6,
  "_rbuild": "4.6.1",
  "_assets": [
    "extra/citation.cff",
    "extra/citation.html",
    "extra/citation.json",
    "extra/citation.txt",
    "extra/contents.json",
    "extra/ErrorTracer.html",
    "extra/manual.pdf",
    "extra/NEWS.html",
    "extra/NEWS.txt",
    "extra/readme.html",
    "extra/readme.md",
    "LICENSE"
  ],
  "_homeurl": "https://github.com/luismadrigal98/errortracer",
  "_realowner": "luismadrigal98",
  "_cranurl": false,
  "_releases": [
    {
      "version": "1.0.2",
      "date": "2026-05-04"
    },
    {
      "version": "1.1.0",
      "date": "2026-05-25"
    },
    {
      "version": "1.2.1",
      "date": "2026-07-19"
    },
    {
      "version": "1.3.0",
      "date": "2026-07-30"
    },
    {
      "version": "1.3.1",
      "date": "2026-08-19"
    },
    {
      "version": "1.4.0",
      "date": "2026-10-24"
    },
    {
      "version": "1.4.1",
      "date": "2026-10-28"
    }
  ],
  "_exports": [
    "decompose_uncertainty",
    "et_calibrate",
    "et_diagnose",
    "et_fit",
    "et_pit",
    "et_plot_calibration",
    "et_plot_coefficients",
    "et_plot_decomposition",
    "et_plot_forecast",
    "et_plot_pit",
    "et_plot_prior_posterior",
    "et_plot_sensitivity",
    "et_plot_shelf_life",
    "et_predict",
    "et_priors_split",
    "et_sensitivity_profile",
    "et_shelf_life_pool",
    "et_skill_score",
    "et_sobol",
    "et_theme",
    "extract_priors",
    "shelf_life",
    "standardize",
    "unstandardize"
  ],
  "_datasets": [
    {
      "name": "et_sim",
      "title": "Simulated allele-frequency-change dataset for ErrorTracer tutorials",
      "object": "et_sim",
      "class": [
        "list"
      ],
      "fields": [],
      "table": false,
      "tojson": true
    }
  ],
  "_help": [
    {
      "page": "decompose_uncertainty",
      "title": "Extract or recompute uncertainty decomposition",
      "topics": [
        "decompose_uncertainty"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_calibrate",
      "title": "Assess calibration of posterior predictive intervals",
      "topics": [
        "et_calibrate"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_diagnose",
      "title": "Diagnose a fitted ErrorTracer model",
      "topics": [
        "et_diagnose"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_fit",
      "title": "Fit a Bayesian regression model with informed priors",
      "topics": [
        "et_fit"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_pit",
      "title": "Probability integral transform (PIT) for calibration diagnostics",
      "topics": [
        "et_pit"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_calibration",
      "title": "Plot calibration: observed vs nominal coverage",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_calibration"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_coefficients",
      "title": "Forest plot of regression coefficients",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_coefficients"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_decomposition",
      "title": "Plot uncertainty decomposition",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_decomposition"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_forecast",
      "title": "Plot posterior predictive fan chart",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_forecast"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_pit",
      "title": "Plot a PIT / rank histogram for calibration",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_pit"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_prior_posterior",
      "title": "Plot prior vs posterior distributions for model coefficients",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_prior_posterior"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_sensitivity",
      "title": "Plot a sensitivity profile",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_sensitivity"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_plot_shelf_life",
      "title": "Plot forecast shelf life",
      "topics": [
        "et_plot_shelf_life"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_predict",
      "title": "Posterior prediction with uncertainty decomposition",
      "topics": [
        "et_predict"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_priors_split",
      "title": "Extract priors from data held out from the likelihood",
      "topics": [
        "et_priors_split"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_sensitivity_profile",
      "title": "Sensitivity profile of the environmental uncertainty component",
      "topics": [
        "et_sensitivity_profile"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_shelf_life_pool",
      "title": "Pool forecast shelf lives across multiple forecast origins",
      "topics": [
        "et_shelf_life_pool"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_sim",
      "title": "Simulated allele-frequency-change dataset for ErrorTracer tutorials",
      "topics": [
        "et_sim"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_skill_score",
      "title": "Null-model-relative forecast skill (CRPS)",
      "topics": [
        "et_skill_score"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_sobol",
      "title": "Global (Sobol) variance-based sensitivity of the predictive mean",
      "topics": [
        "et_sobol"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "et_theme",
      "title": "Minimal ggplot2 theme for ErrorTracer plots",
      "topics": [
        "et_theme"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "extract_priors",
      "title": "Extract brms prior specification from a regularized or standard regression model",
      "topics": [
        "extract_priors",
        "extract_priors.cv.glmnet",
        "extract_priors.glm",
        "extract_priors.glmnet",
        "extract_priors.lm",
        "extract_priors.ranger"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "shelf_life",
      "title": "Compute the forecast shelf life",
      "topics": [
        "shelf_life"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "standardize",
      "title": "Standardize a numeric vector (mean-centre, unit-variance)",
      "topics": [
        "standardize"
      ]
    },
    {
      "page": "unstandardize",
      "title": "Reverse standardization",
      "topics": [
        "unstandardize"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "_readme": "https://github.com/cran/ErrorTracer/raw/HEAD/README.md",
  "_rundeps": [
    "abind",
    "backports",
    "bayesplot",
    "BH",
    "bridgesampling",
    "brms",
    "Brobdingnag",
    "callr",
    "checkmate",
    "cli",
    "coda",
    "codetools",
    "cpp11",
    "desc",
    "digest",
    "distributional",
    "dplyr",
    "farver",
    "future",
    "future.apply",
    "generics",
    "ggdist",
    "ggplot2",
    "ggridges",
    "globals",
    "glue",
    "gridExtra",
    "gtable",
    "inline",
    "isoband",
    "labeling",
    "lattice",
    "lifecycle",
    "listenv",
    "loo",
    "magrittr",
    "Matrix",
    "matrixStats",
    "mgcv",
    "mvtnorm",
    "nleqslv",
    "nlme",
    "numDeriv",
    "otel",
    "parallelly",
    "pillar",
    "pkgbuild",
    "pkgconfig",
    "plyr",
    "posterior",
    "processx",
    "ps",
    "purrr",
    "quadprog",
    "QuickJSR",
    "R6",
    "RColorBrewer",
    "Rcpp",
    "RcppEigen",
    "RcppParallel",
    "reshape2",
    "rlang",
    "rstan",
    "rstantools",
    "S7",
    "scales",
    "StanHeaders",
    "stringi",
    "stringr",
    "tensorA",
    "tibble",
    "tidyr",
    "tidyselect",
    "utf8",
    "vctrs",
    "viridisLite",
    "withr"
  ],
  "_vignettes": [
    {
      "source": "worked_example.Rmd",
      "filename": "worked_example.html",
      "title": "A one-predictor worked example",
      "author": "Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca",
      "engine": "knitr::rmarkdown",
      "headings": [
        "What this vignette is for",
        "Setup: simulate one predictor, one response — over years",
        "Stage 1: turn a quick frequentist fit into a prior",
        "Stage 2: Bayesian refit with the informed prior",
        "Stage 3: posterior prediction across the forecast horizon",
        "Stage 4: decompose the variance over time",
        "Stage 5: when does the forecast become uninformative?",
        "The whole-pipeline figure",
        "What this example does not show",
        "Session info"
      ],
      "created": "2026-05-25 13:00:02",
      "modified": "2026-05-25 13:00:02",
      "commits": 1
    },
    {
      "source": "introduction.Rmd",
      "filename": "introduction.html",
      "title": "Getting Started with ErrorTracer",
      "author": "Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca, John Kelly",
      "engine": "knitr::rmarkdown",
      "headings": [
        "Introduction",
        "The simulated dataset",
        "Setup",
        "Exploring the dataset",
        "Visualise the training data",
        "Single-cluster workflow: Cluster A",
        "Step 1 — Elastic net for prior extraction",
        "Step 2 — Extract informed priors",
        "Step 3 — Fit the Bayesian model",
        "Step 4 — Diagnose convergence and model fit",
        "Step 5 — Predict with environmental noise propagation",
        "Step 6 — Uncertainty decomposition",
        "Step 7 — Forecast shelf life",
        "Step 8 — Calibration assessment",
        "Visualisations",
        "Forecast fan chart",
        "Prior versus posterior",
        "Forest plot: Bayesian vs. elastic net",
        "Parameter recovery validation",
        "Multi-cluster grouped workflow",
        "Fitting",
        "Diagnostics",
        "Prediction and decomposition",
        "Shelf life comparison",
        "Calibration and forecast plots",
        "Long-horizon forecasting with GCM projections",
        "Using lm instead of glmnet",
        "Standardising and back-transforming",
        "Summary",
        "Session information"
      ],
      "created": "2026-05-04 13:00:06",
      "modified": "2026-10-28 21:44:31",
      "commits": 3
    }
  ],
  "_score": 3.845098040014257,
  "_indexed": false,
  "_nocasepkg": "errortracer",
  "_universes": [
    "cran"
  ],
  "_indexurl": "https://luismadrigal98.r-universe.dev/ErrorTracer",
  "_previous": "1.4.0",
  "_binaries": [
    {
      "r": "4.7.0",
      "os": "linux",
      "version": "1.4.1",
      "date": "2026-10-28T23:30:33.000Z",
      "distro": "resolute",
      "commit": "67513052e548612fd644f075f00d7455e88fb745",
      "fileid": "https://r2.ropensci.org/8e4500d9917838e4c798d5007f8a12b1c8b3ca7f73af35d264552e1a6d953988",
      "status": "success",
      "check": "OK",
      "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/cran/actions/runs/40787133765"
    },
    {
      "r": "4.6.1",
      "os": "linux",
      "version": "1.4.1",
      "date": "2026-10-28T23:30:44.000Z",
      "distro": "resolute",
      "commit": "67513052e548612fd644f075f00d7455e88fb745",
      "fileid": "https://r2.ropensci.org/52b0e60787cf35d0c8b736cc3c61d2f999f1a46ffa2ddd4f4a023d0c85e75318",
      "status": "success",
      "check": "OK",
      "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/cran/actions/runs/40787133765"
    },
    {
      "r": "4.6.0",
      "os": "wasm",
      "version": "1.4.1",
      "date": "2026-10-28T23:30:57.000Z",
      "commit": "67513052e548612fd644f075f00d7455e88fb745",
      "fileid": "https://r2.ropensci.org/1a04c30459aff5f6a728df91e352d5c7241e4a2e698388a5adf74d13f8422240",
      "status": "success",
      "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/cran/actions/runs/40787133765"
    },
    {
      "r": "4.7.0",
      "os": "win",
      "version": "1.4.1",
      "date": "2026-10-28T23:30:16.000Z",
      "commit": "67513052e548612fd644f075f00d7455e88fb745",
      "fileid": "https://r2.ropensci.org/873b3a4870c2607bf33918e0cd1ed92752f6589ec0fb5dd6ad63ef17ea1156a8",
      "status": "success",
      "check": "OK",
      "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/cran/actions/runs/40787133765"
    },
    {
      "r": "4.6.1",
      "os": "win",
      "version": "1.4.1",
      "date": "2026-10-28T23:29:40.000Z",
      "commit": "67513052e548612fd644f075f00d7455e88fb745",
      "fileid": "https://r2.ropensci.org/7f6fe743f0d229dca7b29f0649454b82be92a8ba91603667a3fec4ca8a902eab",
      "status": "success",
      "check": "OK",
      "buildurl": "https://github.com/r-universe/cran/actions/runs/40787133765"
    }
  ]
}